Are there any foods that taste better after using toothpaste?
AGENDA
Well, now I feel old:
The @Cardinals selected @NolanGorman with the 19th pick of the #MLBDraft.
He’s the 1st draftee to be born in the year 2000.
Here’s where we all talk about how old we are. pic.twitter.com/4Ti0RBxeaS
— Cut4 (@Cut4) June 5, 2018
The Roto Riteup would like to remind you that this is Scooter Gennett day!
Scooter Gennett with his FOURTH HR of the night!!! pic.twitter.com/NzHC2F7Bkb
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) June 7, 2017
Batter production can roller coaster up-and-down during a season and many times the player’s production eventually stabilizes at an expected level. But sometimes a hitter intentionally or unintentionally changes his plate approach to achieve a new talent level. I’m going to examine three top hitters, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jose Altuve, and why their struggles are caused by changes in approach.
Over my years of research, I’ve found three main items which point to a true talent change, swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, hitting pitches in the strike zone, and groundball rate (verified with launch angle). When one of these items change, the hitter’s production should also change. Luck could still be a factor in the short run but given enough time, there will be a new output level.
There are, like, a dozen articles of this nature written daily — that is, “buy-low” candidates using some kind of xMetric, likely derived from Statcast. That’s fine. I’m not hating on it. This was my modus operandi when I first started writing at RotoGraphs, and it’s how I really started to understand the cyclicality of player performance and the differences between descriptive and predictive metrics.
Speaking of which, I have no desire to rehash the “what xwOBA should really represent” discussion that consumed the sabermetric sphere a week or two ago. (Although, for reference, I’ll link you to Baseball Prospectus, MLBAM’s Tom Tango, and FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards.) Primarily, I want to provide some facts about xwOBA followed by some non-facts about how I use xwOBA to keep my biases in check.
There are two important tenets to xwOBAism. At the player level, wOBA does not always converge on xwOBA…
If there’s one thing I truly excel at — and that’s a pretty big “if” — it’s being way, way too early when deeming players ready for fantasy relevance. For a perfect example, I’d like to present as evidence the fact that I wrote this glowing piece on Jesus Aguilar over four years ago, back in April of 2014. Over the next three seasons, Aguilar picked up a whopping 64 total plate appearances in the majors, hitting .172/.234/.190 in this extremely limited sample.
Last season, Aguilar finally got a chance to show what he could do at the game’s highest level. While he hit quite well — registering a triple slash of .265/.331/.505 with 16 home runs — his playing time was still limited by a combination of the Brewers’ organizational depth and his own substandard defensive skills, as he picked up just 311 PA in 113 games. Eric Thames started 103 games at first base for the Brew Crew last year, leaving Aguilar to pick up the scraps where he could — he got 53 starts at 1B, with the rest of his playing time coming as a pinch hitter, or as a designated hitter in American League parks.
Coming into 2018, it looked like Aguilar’s path to playing time was as unclear as ever. Milwaukee’s outfield was so stacked that it appeared their first-base playing time would be split between Thames and Ryan Braun, leaving Aguilar as the odd man out again. However, when Thames went down with a torn thumb ligament in late April, Aguilar took full advantage of the chance to play nearly every day.
I actually broke into baseball writing on the internet by focusing on the draft at the now-defunct “The Baseball Analysts” site… with some pretty talented guys that moved on to work for MLB clubs like Sky Andrecheck, Joe Sheehan, Jeremy Greenhouse, and Jeff Albert. The site’s genius/creator, Rich Lederer, led the charge to have Bert Blyleven inducted into the hall of fame, which has a great story it.
But in those early days we focused on previewing, reviewing, scouting, and live coverage of the drafts — which was a lot of fun. I also interviewed impending draft picks like Brett Lawrie, Matt LaPorta, and Phillippe Aumont. I didn’t get paid for any of the work but I got to learn from some really smart baseball minds and it led to my gig at FanGraphs, which began more than 10 years ago. This is a great approach to take for any of you hoping to one day make a little money writing about baseball (my journalism degree also helped) or working in baseball.
I’m not nearly as heavily invested in the draft now — we have some much smarter minds in charge of that on the FanGraphs side — but it’s still a lot of fun to follow.
Here is an exercise that I still do to this day and I thought I’d go on record doing it this year: Suggesting who I’d pick for each team in the first round of the draft. Here is an example of what I did for the 2008 draft. I didn’t do so well in the example provided from ’08 but in other years I’ve heavily advocated for first overall picks like Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Correa, and Kris Bryant.
Here is how I’d play out the 2018 first round if I was the Scouting Director (and/or General Manager) at each slot, based on a healthy mix of video, statistics, and scouting reports.
1. Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, college
2. Giants: Brady Singer, RHP, college
3. Phillies: Joey Bart, C, college
4. White Sox: Alec Bohm, 3B, college
5. Reds: Carter Stewart, RHP, prep
6. Mets: Jonathan India, 3B, college
7. Padres: Nick Madrigal, 2B, college
8. Braves: Jackson Kowar, RHP, college
9. Athletics: Travis Swaggerty, OF, college
10. Pirates: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, prep
11. Orioles: Mason Denaburg, RHP, prep
12. Blue Jays: Logan Gilbert, RHP, college
13. Marlins: Jordyn Adams, OF, prep
14. Mariners: Jarred Kelenic, OF, prep
15. Rangers: Nolan Gorman, 3B, prep
16. Rays: Shane McClanahan, LHP, college
17. Angels: Noah Naylor, C, prep
18. Royals: Matthew Liberatore, LHP, prep
19. Cardinals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, prep
20. Twins: Steele Walker, OF, college
21. Brewers: Jeremiah Jackson, SS, prep
22. Rockies: Lineras Torres Jr., RHP, prep
23. Yankees: Greyson Jenista, OF, college
24. Cubs: Blaine Knight, RHP, college
25. Diamondbacks: J.T. Ginn, RHP, prep
26. Red Sox: Adam Kloffenstein, RHP, prep
27. Nationals: Alek Thomas, OF, prep
28. Astros: Ryan Rolison, LHP, college
29. Indians: Seth Beer, 1B, college
30. Dodgers: Nander De Sedas, SS, prep
Great Supplemental and Second Round Options: Cole Winn, Ryan Weathers, Trevor Larnach, Triston Casas, Brice Turang, Jeremy Eierman, Connor Scott (pitcher, not outfielder), Griffin Conine, Tyler Frank, Jordan Groshans, Matt Mercer, Anthony Seigler, Ethan Hankins, Gunnar Hoglund, Kumar Rocker, Nico Hoerner
OK, so that was fun. And now you have some names to consider for your dynasty teams and Ottoneu leagues. And you can judge me in about five to six years time.
For the second game in a row, an Angels reliever made the ninth inning a little too interesting. On Saturday, closer Blake Parker blew a one-run lead in an eventual 3-2 extra-innings loss to the Rangers. When the Angels pulled into the ninth inning of Sunday’s series finale with a two-run lead, Mike Scioscia turned to Justin Anderson to get the save. Anderson was one pitch away from retiring the side, but Ronald Guzman sat on an inside full-count fastball to give the Rangers a baserunner. Then he walked Joey Gallo on a pitch that appeared to catch the corner of the strike zone and loaded the bases with a third straight full-count walk, this time to Shin-Soo Choo. Scioscia stuck with Anderson, who stranded all three runners by inducing a shallow fly ball from Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
In all likelihood, Parker sat out Sunday’s game due to having pitched on both Friday and Saturday, though he threw all of four pitches in the first of those appearances. It’s probably too early to read anything into Anderson getting the save chance on Sunday, but this situation bears monitoring.
Read the rest of this entry »
Draft Day! Get all your coverage elsewhere on FanGraphs.
AGENDA
The Roto Riteup wants you to always be aware of your surroundings:
He’s stealing home! I don’t believe it! He’s stealing home and they don’t see him! pic.twitter.com/7yhFJX3sRE
— MLB (@MLB) June 3, 2018