2018 Surprise Barrels Per True Fly Ball Rate Leaders

Two weeks ago, I discussed the hitters who enjoyed surges and suffered declines in their barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) rates, a metric that’s one of the primary components of my xHR/FB rate equation. Today, let’s identify and discuss some surprises at or near the top of the Brls/TFB leaderboard. Some of these hitters did post high HR/FB rate, so those hitters might not be so surprising as Brls/TFB leaders, but rather the rankign validates the success.

I limited the list to hitters who recorded at least 30 fly balls.

Luke Voit was this season’s version of 2017 Matt Olson, posting a HR/FB rate over 40% over a pretty small sample of at-bats. It’s probably impossible to post such a hefty rate by accident, and so Voit’s appearance ranking second in Brls/TFB fully validates the immense power he displayed over a quarter of a season. I’m fairly certain the knee-jerk reaction is going to be that Voit was a fluke. Sure enough, his NFBC ADP over the month of January is just 201, and he’s the 18th first baseman off the board on average. If that doesn’t confirm that fantasy owners don’t believe for a second that this was for real, then I don’t know what does.

Obviously, Voit ain’t going to homer 40% of the time he hits a fly. But, there’s a lot to like here in his skill set and he remains in a strong lineup and hitter friendly park. Of course, Greg Bird still exists, and I have been known to be a fan. Still, I’m buying here at his current cheap price.

There’s clearly no room for Tyler O’Neill on the Cardinals, as the outfielder is blocked by four starting-caliber players. But this is a man who clearly displayed his 70 grade power in his debut. Strikeouts are obviously an issue and he lost his plate patience upon his call-up, but isn’t he Joey Gallo-esque with his strikeouts, fly balls, and homers? Worth a stash in NL-Only leagues.

Jake Cave?! At age 25 and not exactly a top prospect, this was out of nowhere. The power breakout started in 2017 though, as his HR/FB rate surged to the high teens while at Double-A, and then jumped again into the mid-20% range in Triple-A. He may have sold out for power given his inflated strikeout rate compared to his minor league track record and he hasn’t been much of a walker throughout his career. There’s a lot of intrigue here, but also lots of risk. He may open the season as a starter and he also may not. He could hit 25 homers with the Twins or spend the majority of the season in the minors. See…I have no idea what Jake Cave does in 2019!

Teoscar Hernandez triggered excitement after a tiny sample power outburst in 2017. It earned him a starting job in 2018, but he couldn’t hold it all season long. While his HR/FB rate plummeted, his Brls/TFB was still right up there near an elite level. The problem now is he’s no longer got a starting job in hand. He could easily push his way into the starting lineup as Billy McKinney is no sure thing, but at the very least, this will depress his cost. He therefore might be a good deal in AL-Only leagues as fantasy owners think of him as somewhat of a bust in 2018.

Well, hello Ji-Man Choi! After toiling in the minors for many, many years, despite always hitting and showing excellent plate discipline, Choi had his coming out party over a third of a season. It happened as he joined his fifth team since 2015. After the Rays let C.J. Cron get away, Choi now has the first base job from the get-go, the first time he’ll open a season with a starting job. He’s not going to face lefties, so his ceiling is limited, but there was nothing flukey about his performance (well, except his BABIP). His value jumps even higher in OBP leagues.

You want a sleeper? Meet Ramon Laureano. He’s displayed both power and speed in the minors, both of which translated nicely to the Majors. And encouragingly, his strikeout rate didn’t skyrocket upon his promotion to Oakland as often happens to prospects during their first cup of coffee. His excellent center field defense should keep him in the lineup and allow him to work through any slumps.