2018 Early HR/FB Positive Validations

Last week, I calculated every hitter’s xHR/FB rate, and then listed and discussed those whose marks were well above their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent improvement) and those whose marks were most below their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent decline). Those posts provided some actionable advice, in the form of buy low targets and guys you might want to consider selling high. But what about the hitters whose underlying skills actually justify their HR/FB rate spikes? These are the guys you might consider buying high, or if you already own the player, shouldn’t rush to sell high.

I included hitters with a HR/FB rate no greater than 5% higher than their xHR/FB rate.

Remember when Matt Davidson hit three homers in his first game and made everyone take notice of his existence? If you exclude that game from his log, amazingly his xHR/FB rate drops all the way to 33.3%. That’s still wayyyyyy above what anyone expected and absolutely elite though. As tempting as it might be for you to sell high, do you realize that his xHR/FB rate sits at a nearly-as-lofty 39.9%?! It’s easy to see how he has posted such a high mark — he leads all of baseball in both Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist! He has also pulled his flies at a well above average clip, so he’s done everything right. Where this power came from isn’t very clear as he’s never shown the potential for such a mammoth HR/FB rate in the minors — his career high was just 15.4%. So he’s a good example of a guy whose current skills validate the big HR/FB rate so far, but is highly, highly unlikely to maintain those skills.

Given his former top prospect status and the power he had shown at various stops during his minor league career, a major power breakout for Javier Baez shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. His Brls/True FB has nearly doubled from last season, while his Avg FB Dist ranks third in baseball. While the power may very well be sustained, don’t expect his strikeout rate to hold. He’s swinging and missing just as often as always, but has swung more than ever before to offset his penchant for whiffs. It’s a risky strategy.

Every year, a young guys breaks out who gave us no indication that the breakout was going to occur. That’s Nomar Mazara so far. Buying him was based on blind faith that a young former top prospect would enjoy an offensive surge at some point. His Brls/True FB has nearly doubled and his Avg FB Dist is near the league leader. Oddly, his FB Pull% is actually down below his 2016 and 2017 marks. Since he continues to hit in the middle of a solid Rangers lineup and he’s young enough, with the skills so far, to believe in his power spike, I probably would hold as an owner.

Man, every year there are some hitters that come out of nowhere to go on power binges. One example last year was Matt Olson, and this year so far it’s been Christian Villanueva. He only posted a 13.1% HR/FB rate at Triple-A last year and was never even in the high teens over a reasonable sample size. But he’s crushing it now and although his Avg FB Dist isn’t overly impressive, he’s the first guy on here who’s pulling balls like a mad man. His FB Pull% ranks third in baseball, so when you pair that pull rate with the ability to hit those fly balls far, you get a lot of homers.

Who would have expected the 30-year-old injury prone A.J. Pollock, now playing half his games in a power-reducing humidor using home park, to suddenly go nuts with his power?! All of his xHR/FB metrics are at career bests and this looks like it could be a change in approach. His SwStk% and strikeout have both risen to career highs, while his FB% is above 40%, suggesting that perhaps he has sold out for power. It’s worked so far as his wOBA stands at .415. Maybe he wants to be what Charlie Blackmon has transformed himself into.

Mookie Betts leads baseball in home runs. WHAT?! He’s already enjoyed two three-homer games, plus a two-homer affair. Even crazier, xHR/FB rate thinks he should have hit even more homers! You need to understand how nuts this has been — his Brls/True FB sat at just 12.4% last year and his high was just 15.2% posted in 2015. Now he’s sitting at an insane 50%! Similarly, his Avg FB Dist high sits at just 314 feet, and now he’s gotten that all the way up to 354 feet, not too far away from the league leader. He’s always been a fly ball pull guy, but he’s taken that skill to a new level this year. All this has happened without sacrificing contact. With his FB% surging above 50%, though, it seems very clear he’s one of the newest participants in the fly ball revolution. He might not steal 20 bases for the first time, but if he hits 35-40 homers, he’ll still deliver elite value.

We knew that Yoan Moncada owned an exciting blend of power and speed, but xHR/FB rate thinks his power output should be even better at this point. His Brls/True FB ranks fifth, but strangely his Avg FB Dist is far less impressive. That suggests that he’s typically just meeting the barrel minimum, so his balls aren’t traveling as far as a hitter with better EV/LA combinations, even though both balls are considered barrels. That could mean he’s less likely to reach that xHR/FB rate, but I’ve performed no research on gaps between Brls/True FB and Avg FB Dist.

You probably didn’t think much of David Peralta’s season since he only has six homers, but his HR/FB rate has nearly doubled from last year. Heading into the season, his Brls/True FB had actually been in free fall, declining each season, though interestingly, his Avg FB Dist jumped to a career high last year. Now, all his numbers would represent career bests, and his FB Pull%, while still below average, has inched up above his previous career high mark.

You have been wondering how Didi Gregorius looks by xHR/FB rate, right? Enjoying a breakout season, with a walk rate that has nearly tripled, a continued low strikeout rate, and lots of fly balls, it sure seems like he’s legit. And xHR/FB rate mostly agrees. His Brls/True FB marks have always been fairly weak, and this year it’s still below the league average. However, it’s more than double his mark from last year! And finally, he has gotten his Avg FB Dist into league average territory. The big deal here is that he’s pulling his flies more than ever before, which is key when you call Yankee Stadium home. If he ever finds himself wearing a new uniform, his power would crumble.

Jed Lowrie went from not even a consideration in shallow mixed leagues to a must start. At age 34. Huh? There’s nothing in his profile that indicates a change, he’s simply barreling his fly balls up at more than double the rate he did last season, while those balls are flying much further. The answer though is right in front of us — he ranks ninth in FB Pull%, with a mark nearly double what he posted the last three seasons. In fact, he has been so amazingly consistent with his FB Pull%, with marks of 21.7%, 21.6%, and 21.6% in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. So this is an obvious change in approach to up his power. It has worked.