2016 RoS Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Decliners

Yesterday, I discussed some of the starting pitchers whose xK% significantly exceeded their actual K% marks, suggesting strikeout rate upside over the rest of the season. Today, I’ll check in on the opposite end of the spectrum, looking at those fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose strikeout rates are far exceeding their xK% marks.

Though Stephen Strasburg’s strikeout rate sits at the highest mark of his career, surprisingly his swinging strike rate (S/Str) hasn’t been exceptional. Sure, it’s above average, but I expected better from the pitcher ranked fourth in strikeout rate. Oddly, he has swapped called strikes for foul strikes this year, as the former is at a career low, while the latter a career high. Probably doesn’t mean much. Even with a small dip in strikeout rate, he should remain a top tier pitcher.

I always mention that these “x equations” will always have issues at the extremes. That is, they will tend to undervalue the best and overvalue the worst. And yet, it still think Jose Fernandez is worthy of a 33.1% strikeout rate! That’s a full point and a half above the next highest xK% belonging to Max Scherzer. Obviously, it’s mighty difficult to sustain a 36.8% strikeout rate as a starting pitcher and you don’t need an equation to tell you that. But as fabulous as Fernandez has been, he’s throwing the fewest strikes of his career.

Furthermore — and this is a true head-scratcher — he has allowed an absurd 28.5% line drive rate since the beginning of last season, spanning 185.1 innings. Line drive rate is certainly flaky and is prone to jump around, but that’s a severely inflated mark, especially for a pitcher who clearly possesses elite stuff. He would make for a great case study on how he has posted below average HR/FB rates and spectacular strikeout rates, but such a high line drive rate.

You typically worry about performance immediately upon return from Tommy John surgery, but Patrick Corbin impressed last year, showing excellent velocity, strikeout stuff, and threw strikes at the highest rate of his short career. He seemed like an obvious choice to produce a major profit for fantasy owners this season, but instead, his season has been a disaster. His fastball velocity has now dropped a mile per hour below where he was last year after returning from the surgery, rendering it terrible at inducing swings and misses, and he forgot how to throw strikes.

Heading into the season, his career strike percentage was 66%, which is well above the league average. This year’s decline to just 60.3% is significant and extremely worrisome. The scary thing is that xK% suggests things should be even worse! I question the health of his elbow.

Well, at least Clayton Kershaw owners did get 121 absolutely dominant innings from him. I still stare in amazement at that glorious 145/9 K/BB ratio. It’s hard to believe this is the same guy that posted walk rates above 11% in his first two seasons.

Ivan Nova is obviously just an AL-Only consideration, but perhaps he shouldn’t even be that much. The ground balls are nice though, especially when paired with an above average IFFB%, which is a rare combination.

What’s Carlos Rodon without the strikeouts? The improved walk rate, supported by a higher strike percentage, is a positive, but his swinging strike rate is down markedly, while the two other strike types are down a smidge. You expect more from a guy who supposedly had a killer slider and possesses above average velocity for a lefty. Bettering his changeup will be key, as right-handers have spanked him this year to the tune of a .373 wOBA, while his underlying skills take a dive.