2016 Pod Projections: Jeff Samardzija

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

After a breakout 2014 performance, Jeff Samardzija followed up with a stinker of a season. His ERA spiked by nearly two full runs, his SIERA jumped by more than a run, and his strikeout rate plummeted, as did his ground ball rate. It’s no surprise then that the RotoGraphs ranking crew don’t exactly agree on his 2016 value. His individual ranking ranged from a bullish 25 to a bearish 69, but a “split” (difference between high and low ranking) of 44, the highest mark among the top 45 consensus pitchers.

Despite his poor 2015 results, the Giants gave him a five-year contract. Let’s find out if a return to the National League and calling the most pitcher friendly park in baseball home can spark a rebound.

2016 Pod Projections Index:
Corey Seager
Xander Bogaerts
Kris Bryant
Raisel Iglesias

IP: 210

If anything, perhaps this looks a bit conservative. Samardzija has logged between 213.2 and 219.2 innings over the last three seasons, so 210 would represent a four-season low. But the he recently turned 31, and forecasting a marginal innings decline is simply what you do when factoring in age for starting pitchers.

K%: 21.2%

Samardzija wasn’t unlucky last year — his strikeout rate deservedly plunged. His xK% was slightly better at 19%, but that was still a far cry from what we had become accustomed to seeing from him. The problem seemingly stemmed entirely from his splitter. Since 2011, he has consistently posted a SwStk% of at least 20% with the pitch (in 2011, PITCHf/x classified it as a changeup, but it was probably the splitter). But in 2015, that SwStk% fell off a clip, diving down to just 12.6% (versus 21.8% in 2014). In mid-September, I speculated about what the explanation could be and settled on that he was throwing the pitch for a strike too often!

It’s not often that throwing too many strikes is a bad thing and reduces the effectiveness of a pitch, but for the splitter, which is best thrown down in the zone initially, with the movement taking it further down and outside the zone, this could very well be the answer. If that’s the case, it would seem to be relatively easy to fix. Combine that with the move back to the National League and a rebound in strikeout rate is rather easy to project. Of course, this still represents a decline from where he previously stood in the 23% to 24.9% range, but we also have to consider age and the possibility that the quality of his stuff has simply diminished. My theory hasn’t been proven, so I could just be wrong.

BB%: 6.2%

Samardzija has legitimately improved his control as his strike percentage has surged the last two seasons. But, he still owns a less impressive 7.8% career walk rate and had never posted a mark below 7.8% before 2014. So we have to account for the chance of some regression.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 44.5% / 20.5% / 35%

From 2011 through 2014, Samardzija’s ground ball rate had increased every single season, peaking at a 50.2% mark that last year. But then in 2015, it reversed course, as he failed to induce grounders even 40% of the time. All of his pitches generated ground ball rates slightly lower than he had posted during his career, so it wasn’t just one pitch that provides the answer here. My projected batted ball distribution is essentially his career average. It’s basically throwing up my hands and not knowing exactly what’s going to happen this year, though figuring that his history suggests he’ll rebound some.

HR/FB%: 10.0%

Only once has Samardzija posted a HR/FB rate in the single digits, and that was in 2011 when he was a full-time reliever. But Samardzija has also always pitched his home games in a park that boost home runs, aside from his short time in Oakland in 2014. Sure enough, his career home HR/FB rate is 12.3%, while his away mark is 9.7%. AT&T Park sported the lowest home run park factor in baseball last year, so we’ll get to find out if Samardzija truly suffers a bit from gopheritis or if it was simply a park factor issue. I’m betting on the latter, as this projection would be the second lowest of his career.

BABIP: .295

His career batted ball distributon, as well as my projected line, along with his career BABIP are both right at the league average. He posted an inflated .303 BABIP last year in front of a brutal White Sox defense. He should rebound given that the Giants project to be an above average fielding club.

Below is my final projected pitching line, along with the other systems for comparison:

I’m rather surprised by how much agreement there is between systems! We’re all projecting Samardzija to improve his ERA by about a run and a half, which is huge! It’s interesting to see that Steamer is forecasting the worst strikeout rate, as perhaps it’s heavily weighting age here and even the move to the National League isn’t enough to push it higher.

I’m still wondering if Steamer factors in projected team defense. The system is easily projecting the lowest BABIP and it doesn’t really follow from his batted ball distribution or his career mark.

Samardzija is being drafted 41st among starters on average according to the NFBC ADP, which I feel makes him an excellent value.

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What are you projecting for Jeff Samardzija in 2016?