2016 Pitcher GB% Projections

by
November 11, 2015

Well, my pain may be your gain. For a future Hardball Times article I am working on, I needed to create some historic pitcher groundball rate (GB%) projections. I decided to go ahead and run the values for 2016 and make them publicly available.

Here is the basic background behind creating the projections.

• I used a three-year weighting of .7 for 2015, .2 for 2014 and .1 for 2013.
• The data was regressed some to a league average rate.
• I didn’t use any aging factors.
• The final r-squared from the projection to actual results is around .67.

With that small amount of background information, here are the projections.

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Ryan BrockMember since 2025
10 years ago

Technical difficulties?

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Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Ryan Brock

Try reloading the page. Worked for me.

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Brad JohnsonMember
10 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

And commenting here broke it again, so you may need to reload multiple times.

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thecodygriffin
10 years ago
Reply to  Ryan Brock

If it is of any help, I am also not able to view or access the document as I receive the error message of “We’re sorry, we couldn’t open your workbook. It’s possibly corrupt or using a file format that’s not supported.” I am using the latest version of Chrome on a MacBook Pro running OS X El Capitan 10.11.1.

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thecodygriffin
10 years ago
Reply to  thecodygriffin

However, I just checked and I am able to view and access the document using the latest version of Firefox on an Intel PC running Ubuntu 15.10 and the latest version of Internet Explorer 11 on an Intel PC running Windows 10.

So it seems the answer is to try a different browser and/or operating system. It is not the best solution, but is clearly out of Fangraphs control.

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