2016 LABR Mixed Draft Recap

February 18, 2016

It’s mid-Feburary, and that means that another eeeeeeaaaaaaarrrrlllllllyyyyyyy LABR Mixed draft has been completed. Tout Wars auctions/drafts don’t go off for another month, my local league’s auction is in a month and a half, and opening day is still six and a half weeks away! The early timing of LABR Mixed presents some interesting challenges in that there are many position battles yet to have even begun and several potentially valuable free agents yet to sign. So on one hand, it requires us to do serious research, but on the other, we’re all just speculating, crossing our fingers, and hoping for the best.

LABR Mixed is a 15 team league composed of fantasy baseball industry (this is an industry, right?) veterans, with traditional 5×5 roto scoring, standard 23-man active rosters (which means two catchers and nine pitchers), and a six man reserve squad. We get unlimited DL spots. We use FAAB and begin with 100 units. The minimum bid is 1, not 0, so if your team is ravaged by injuries, there may come a point where you’re literally out of FAAB units and are forced to keep a hurt player in your lineup. I’ve seen it happen many times in the past. It’s why perhaps guys like Troy Tulowitzki should be given a slight reduction in value outside of his value derived straight from his raw stats and accounting for position.

Before I recap my team, let’s talk strategy. To be honest, I hate being asked what my strategy is heading into a draft or was after the draft has ended. Strategy, seriously? Obviously, draft the best team possible…by acquiring as much value as you can, but being mindful you don’t do so by drafting 300 steals and just 100 homers. However, there is an answer. I’m probably so used to the way I draft that I don’t even think of it as strategy anymore.

Yesterday, I described an important piece of snake draft prep that I perform. The exercise helps me determine which positions I could afford to pass on top players at value and wait for bargains to appear later, and which I shouldn’t expect to find undervalued names and should snatch the top tier guys. Of course, this is all based on ADP, which essentially means that the conclusions I draw from the data could be completely wrong. Every league is different.

Comparing my personal values to NFBC ADP, I determined that I was willing to draft the top second basemen, shortstops, and third basemen at value. At first base, I could consider the top tier at value, but did have two names in mind later who I thought I had a good chance of acquiring at a nice discount. I then reminded myself how many outfielders we need to draft and that this large number results in lots more disagreement of value than at other offensive positions where we draft fewer players. I typically end up drafting a strong outfield, with several top guys early on. This time I noted to myself I should wait on them.

It is important to understand that I wasn’t technically targeting specific positions in certain rounds. I let the draft come to me and take value when I could get it. If a top outfielder falls into my lap at a discounted rate, I’m going to take advantage.

Aside from this specific position analysis, I always draft starting pitchers late. Well, in a 12 team mixed league, I take it slightly more to the extreme. In LABR, I have been drafting a top 15 option in the first couple of rounds along with everyone else, but then waiting much longer to pair him with another starter than the majority of, if not all, other teams. I try to fill my staff and reserves with lots of young, high upside guys, figuring I’ll hit on a couple of them. Then it’s easy enough to find pitching from free agency during the season.

Last, I will never draft a top closer. Not that I think they are overvalued in drafts. I absolutely think they are fairly priced and the top options deserve to go where they go. But given the huge turnover at closer each year, we have so many opportunities to pick up a closer or two during the season, why spend so much on one during the draft? Sure, it’ll cost you FAAB units, but if you’re slick, you can often preemptively pick up a setup guy behind a closer looking shaky lately with the idea that your guy may take over the role in short order. And best of all, you probably got him with a minimum bid.

Phew, I just spent 772 words on this article and haven’t even revealed my team yet. I had the 11th pick. This is the entire draft. Here we go…

Round 1 (ADP Rd 1) Miguel Cabrera, 1B — I was rather shocked that I even had the opportunity to decide between Miggy and Josh Donaldson, who sported an ADP of 5. Perhaps I drove the shock level even higher when I opted to also pass on the latter. For what it’s worth, I had Cabrera valued slightly higher than Donaldson and there was no reason for me to doubt my order.

2 (2) Dee Gordon, 2B — I certainly didn’t plan it this way, but I found it humorous that last year I famously selected Billy Hamilton in the second round, and this year I grabbed Gordon. At the risk of starting a whole discussion about valuation methodology in the comments, I had Gordon valued fourth…among everyone. It’s the same argument I made about Hamilton last year, in that steals are worth more in this size league than a 12-teamer. Plus, Gordon is unlikely to hit the .250 or so that Hamilton might be expected to. So he’s not the same one-trick pony. He’s also an asset in both batting average and runs scored at the second base slot. Lastly, taking my top second baseman in Gordon allowed me to follow my pre-draft strategy of taking top second basemen at value.

3 (3) Stephen Strasburg, P — If you took a look at how the draft unfolded, you’d see that after Kershaw was selected at pick 4, the next starting pitcher didn’t go until pick 16. Then, picks 24 and 25 were for starters. Following this pair, all hell broke loose. It’s what we called a pitching run. It’s a joy to watch. For the 19 picks between 30 and 48, 12 of them were starting pitchers! This includes mini-streaks of four in a row and five in a row. Although I was in the middle of the run, amazingly I was able to get my eighth best pitcher as the 13th starter off the board.

After Strasburg’s ridiculously dominant run to finish off the 2015 season, I didn’t expect to get him at a discount. I had valued Corey Kluber as my fourth best starter and I’m not sure why he fell so far (he ended up going right after my pick). I heavily debated whether I should go with him or Stras, but ultimately decided that I wanted the guy that I projected better on a per inning basis. Strasburg was only less valuable due to the 20 fewer innings I projected.

4 (2) Kyle Schwarber, C — Woah. Talk about unexpected! After his powerful debut last year and given his catcher eligibility, I never dreamed of drafting him. Plus, he made my ESPN Home Run Tracker HR/FB rate downside list! Yet, even with my relatively conservative projections, he was still my 23rd most valuable player, making him a fair value in round two at his ADP. In round 4, I was elated that he somehow fell into my lap.

5 (7) Adrian Beltre, 3B — This was a tough pick. I was hoping for whoever falls to me between Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor since it fit my strategy of paying value for a top shortstop. Unfortunately, both were gone by my pick, with Lindor taken just two before me. I had to scramble. No one looked appealing, as it was seemingly too early to pounce on anyone I considered at the top of my draft board. Although it was two full rounds before his ADP, I knew I also wanted to draft a top third baseman, and after all, I did value Beltre here. It was clear that he returned too soon last year from his thumb injury, as his power spiked and production surged as the season came to a close, when he was presumably fully healthy again.

6 (6) Matt Kemp, OF — My first outfielder! For a second straight pick, no one stood out to me at the top of my board. It was filled with speed guys, but after taking Gordon, I knew I wanted to continue to focus on power. Nothing exciting here, just another player I apparently like a bit more than the consensus that should also provide some speed along with his power.

7 (7) Maikel Franco, 3B — This draft started off so promising, and then suddenly three players in a row I essentially paid value for! I was hoping one of the remaining good second basemen would fall to me to fill my MI slot (Kinsler, Odor, Kipnis), but all were gone. I also apparently waited too long to scoop up my undervalued catcher target, Jonathan Lucroy. But the biggest drama of my night came as I Tweeted this…

Who dares me to draft Billy Hamilton to pair with the already drafted Dee Gordon? #LABR

— Mike Podhorzer (@MikePodhorzer) February 17, 2016

and then this…

Billy Hamilton FINALLY drafted, removing any temptation of shooting for 200 steals!!!! #LABR

— Mike Podhorzer (@MikePodhorzer) February 17, 2016

I’ll come clean — I had Hamilton valued 18th overall (I believe about the same as last year), but knew it would be silly to draft him when I already had Gordon. But the further he fell (his ADP is round 5), the more tempted I was to just go for value and figure out the surplus of steals later. In round 7, I basically made the decision that if Hamilton fell to me, I couldn’t possibly pass up that type of value. I was relieved, however, when I did not have to make that decision, even if it would have gotten a lot of people talking!

I’m typically guilty of drafting the undervalued, boring veteran, but in a larger league, you need that upside (and your upside players to hit that upside!) to have a shot at winning. So Franco was the choice here, which filled my corner spot early.

8 (10) Elvis Andrus, SS — Ughhhh. I have no idea what happened here. I was looking at my rankings, searching for my next pick, when suddenly it’s my turn with like 5 seconds left to pick. Clock runs out, I got nothing. The shortstop crop this year is pretty terrible and after Andrus, there was a huge drop-off to the next shortstop on my rankings (unless I wanted to take the risk with Jose Reyes). With little time to really think, I was okay with the selection, even though I wasn’t keen on drafting another guy whose value comes primarily from steals. Ahh well, trade bait.

9 (8) Masahiro Tanaka, P — The strategy in action. Strasburg in round 3 and not another starter until round 9. The Baseball HQ boys also waited until the ninth round to draft their second start, and no other team came close. Obviously, he’s an injury risk. But his skills remained strong last year while he was on the mound and more than enough risk was factored in to be worth the gamble this late. He was my 24th most valuable starter and I snagged him as the 32nd starter off the board. I was satisfied, as the cheaper cost reduced my risk. I considered taking my first closer here, but opted to wait just a bit longer.

10 (18) Jake McGee, P — I’m guessing the inflated ADP includes many drafts when he was still just a Rays setup man. Yeah, yeah, injury risk and moving to Colorado. But he’s primarily a fastball pitcher, so shouldn’t be affected as much as someone who relies on an assortment of breaking pitches. I got him as the 15th closer off the board. I was saddened to see my undervalued catcher go two rounds before his ADP, as I was all geared up to snag him here.

11 (10) Justin Verlander, P — I was surprised by this, as I figured he would be overvalued. I also didn’t think my projection would be as optimistic as it was, so this was too many surprises in one, my head was spinning. As usual, no one stood out as an obvious value. When that happens, I remind myself that I need to draft 9 pitchers and settle on taking another starter.

12 (12) Yan Gomes, C — In any given draft, you can never be certain how the league is going to value catchers. After my pair of most undervalued catchers went to other teams, it basically didn’t matter who I ended up with as there were a cluster of similarly valued players. But I wanted more power and Gomes had the most, or close to it, at my pick, so he was the choice. I think his knee injury clearly sapped his offense last year and he should rebound assuming good health.

13 (9) A.J. Ramos, P — The news that Ramos will be in competition with Carter Capps for the closer gig clearly suppressed his price. Although Capps has superior skills, he has no MLB closing experience and Ramos closed games successfully for the team last year. I still think Ramos has the clear edge and would end up as a bargain in this round if he does indeed win out.

14 (14) Wil Myers, 1B/OF — I tabbed Myers as one of my undervalued guys I could afford to wait at first base and outfield for and it actually worked out as hoped. He ranked fourth on my xHR/FB rate upside list and would exceed all projections if he could just stay healthy for a change.

15 (15) Ryan Zimmerman, 1B — Zimmerman was the other first baseman I listed before the draft as a guy to wait on, and like Myers, it worked out. His health is obviously the biggest question mark, but his skills remain strong. His power rebounded last year and only a career low BABIP (only his second below .308), held back his performance. If he can keep himself on the field, he’ll easily outearn his draft slot. Heck, he doesn’t even need to avoid the DL all year to yield at least some profit.

16 (14) Brandon Phillips, 2B — I’m not sure why Phillips slipped so far, as he’s still a second baseman slated to hit in the middle of a batting order. He provides some pop and speed and even applying heavy regression to his steals projection, still end up with a player valued as an 11th rounder. He was by far the most valuable middle infielder still left when I drafted him.

17 (17) Steve Cishek, P – A guaranteed closer in the 17th round? Yes, please. He was the last “we know he has the job” closer left on the board. Everyone else was either a speculation, or simply the favorite for the job, but with mediocre skills. I’m not even a fan of Cishek whatsoever, but it didn’t matter in the 17th round. He gives me a second guaranteed closer and a third potential one.

18 (17) Rich Hill, P — I was wondering how much longer I should push it before taking Hill, whom if you’ve seen my Pod Projections, know that I’m probably the most bullish of anyone on the planet. Of course, it’s just a wild, wild guess, but he’s an absolute steal if he delivers anywhere close to that forecast. He supposedly made mechanical changes in 2015 that resulted in the improved control, so we do have an explanation behind the performance spike. He always had strikeout ability, only health and control were missing.

19 (20) Jarrod Dyson, OF — One of my favorite picks. Does no one realize that Dyson is set to be the starting right fielder in Kansas City? Unless they acquire someone else, at the very least he is on the strong side of a platoon with Paulo Orlando, forming a rather hilarious combo from an offensive perspective. He is essentially Billy Hamilton if he gets the playing time, but 12 rounds later. I had no need for another 30+ steals guy, but waited, and waited, and waited to draft him as he sit atop my draft board for many, many rounds. Surely the rest of the league knows who to contact now if they have the need for speed!

20 (20) Hyun-soo Kim, OF — I was convinced to raise my HR/FB projection after commenters on my projection article. I was curious to see where drafters valued Kim versus Byung-ho Park and we have our answer — I got Kim in the 20th round, whereas Park went in the 11th. Funny, I had their values almost exactly reversed. Of course, we’re all just guessing, but it seems the consensus disagrees with my feelings of the two. I have been really warming up to Kim as the likely leadoff hitter in a home park that inflates left-handed home runs, but word that the Orioles are discussing a contract with Dexter Fowler means that Kim may very well be dropped to the bottom of the order if a signing were to occur.

21 Vincent Velasquez, P
22 Aaron Altherr, OF

Sleeper time! I figured Velasquez would have gone earlier after it was announced that he was considered the favorite to win the fifth spot in the Phillies rotation. Before that, I presumed he would open the season in the minors and may get some relief innings. But the news improved his projected value and he’s a much better bet in the National League.

I was dying to find an outfielder, any outfielder that didn’t put me to sleep (Nick Markakis, I’m looking at you). I still hadn’t drafted my starting five, which scared me. This is what happens after focusing so much on not drafting an outfielder early and waiting for undervalued guys later! But Altherr is rather interesting. He’s got some power and good speed and his SwStk% suggests a much improved strikeout rate is a possibility. He has a starting outfield job locked up and seemingly has 15-20 upside.

23 Anibal Sanchez, P — Man, how the mighty have fallen. Remember when he posted a 2.57 ERA in 2013 with a strikeout rate surge to propel his performance? Yeah, I barely do either. Last season, his skills weren’t much worse than in 2014, but he was bitten by the home run ball and a ridiculous 16% HR/FB rate. That won’t happen again, which means he’s got a good shot at getting that ERA back below 4.00. Health now, is the bigger question. Which is fine, because he was a 23rd rounder.

24 Corey Knebel, P
25 Rubby De La Rosa, P
26 Kris Medlen, P

I like using my reserve slots speculating on unsettled closer roles. Most assume Will Smith will be the closer in Milwaukee, but as literally the only lefty on the entire 40-man roster, I’m not so sure it will be him. So it’s a perfect situation to speculate. I flip-flopped between Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress and in my own projections, forecasted more saves for Jeffress. But for whatever reason, I reversed course, feeling like maybe Knebel would have the leg up on Jeffress. Ideally, I wanted both, but Jeffress was taken before I had the chance to.

With a mid-90s fastball, Rubby has to strike out more hitters one of these years, right?! The seeds for a breakout are there, it could happen at any time.

I’m betting on Medlen getting a rotation slot with Danny Duffy remaining in the bullpen. His skills should improve now that he’s further away from TJ Surgery and has the best defense in baseball supporting him.

27 Zack Cozart, SS — I’m surprised that he has been completely forgotten about. Between the knee injury that knocked him out for the season, and a possibly fluky power spike, it’s easy to understand why. But he’s likely to open the year hitting lead off and gives me a potential power source at shortstop that could allow me to trade Andrus and his steals.

28 Homer Bailey, P — With unlimited DL slots and nothing good this late in the draft, it was worth selecting an injured player hoping he makes a successful return from TJ surgery.

29 Chris Young, P — Continues to defy our expected ERA metrics and we have discovered that it’s no fluke. Poor bet for strikeouts, but won’t damage my ERA, which is what I’m looking for from a streamer candidate who I’ll activate during two-start weeks.

—

After compiling my team projections and total value acquired, I’m satisfied with the team I put together, though not overly excited. Clearly, I have too many steals, which is what could happen when you chase value and eschew balance. I could be sitting pretty with four closers on opening day, which will allow me to either build up a saves lead or start trading season early.

C – Kyle Schwarber
C – Yan Gomes
1B – Miguel Cabrera
3B – Adrian Beltre
CI – Maikel Franco
2B – Dee Gordon
SS – Elvis Andrus
MI – Brandon Phillips
OF – Matt Kemp
OF – Wil Myers
OF – Jarrod Dyson
OF – Hyun-soo Kim
OF – Aaron Altherr
Util – Ryan Zimmerman