2015 Visualized: Catchers

For the next few weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote entire weeks to each defensive position, including spotlights on particular players as well as trends throughout the 2015 season. This week, we’re highlighting catchers.

I don’t claim to be a Tableau (or data visualization) whiz by any means, but I thought it would be cool to visually represent the landscape of all catchers in 2015 — with some analysis sprinkled in.

Steamer and ZiPS represent premier player projection systems; FanGraphs’ Depth Charts combines the two, and the writing staff allocate playing time accordingly. The playing time part is less important relative to the combined projections, as aggregated projections tend to perform better than standalones.

I compared projected WAR (wins above replacement) from the preseason to actual WAR (1) by team and (2) by player within team. I scaled the expected WAR by playing time to correct for injuries, trades, call-ups, etc. Ideally, it’ll be a little more accurate and, perhaps, fairer than comparing actual results to projections straight-up.

First: the difference between a team’s total WAR generated by catchers and their projected WAR. Darkest green represents the highest expected WAR, scaled by playing time, whereas greenish grey represents lowest expected WAR. The size of the bar above (below) the line represents actual WAR above (below) expectations.

The measurement isn’t perfect, given certain players manned multiple positions in 2015. I had to scale down the playing times of Buster Posey, Kyle Schwarber and Stephen Vogt, for example, to account for time played away from behind the dish. Unfortunately, such scaling does not capture a player’s value generated as a catcher with full accuracy. In other words, I am certainly undervaluing Schwarber’s offensive production when formally designated as the game’s catcher.

Still, it doesn’t matter. You can see most teams’ catchers underperformed expectations in 2015. They generated a whopping one-third fewer WAR than expected (54.1 actual WAR to 82.0 projected WAR). Despite bouncebacks by a couple of crucial signal-callers, the catching landscape was decimated by injuries and poor performance.

Second: the difference between each player’s total WAR generated and his projected WAR, sorted into teams. The largest circles represent the highest expected WAR; the smallest circles, the lowest expected WAR. (The colors merely help with discerning WAR above or below expectations.) The distance of the dot from zero represents actual WAR above or below expectations.

Steamer and ZiPS did not generate projections for a handful of catchers. For example, Steven Baron — arguably, and sadly, the Mariners’ best catcher this season — did not have a projection. Nor did Austin Hedges. Most players without projections barely played — as projected — so this select few did not really benefit from the omission.

Mr. Schwarber, however, greatly benefited by exceeding expectations of experts and prospectors everywhere. Still, he registered fewer than 100 plate appearances as a catcher, so his impact behind the plate remained small.

Yadier Molina, the graph’s largest, lowest and most deeply reddened dot, failed to live up to high expectations. It was his worst offensive season since 2010 and the fourth-worst of his stellar 12-year career. With four home runs and a mere 34 runs scored in a full season’s work, he burned his owners in deep and two-catcher leagues.

Other significant busts include Yan Gomes, Jonathan Lucroy and Mike Zunino. Salvador Perez and Wilson Ramos probably shouldn’t count — they combined for 36 home runs — but both their plate disciplines are atrocious, with sub-5% walk rates and, thus, sub-.300 on-base percentages (OBPs). I’d say they’re lucky to are as well as they did (5th and 13th, respectively, among catchers) in light of them.

Francisco Cervelli isn’t MLB’s nor fantasy baseball’s most valuable catcher by any means — that’s Posey. Nor would he even be best in relative terms — that’s Stephen Vogt, Derek Norris or Nick Hundley, all of whom went undrafted and produced more fantasy value than Cervelli. Still, the Pirates asked and Cervelli delivered, building upon the promise of a small-sample 2014 (144 wRC+ in 61 PAs) at the ripe, young age of 29. His contribution is arguably underrated.

The .359 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) probably helped, but his biggest gains in offense can be largely attributed to a 6.9-percentage point drop in his strikeout rate (K%) and a 2.2-bump in his walk rate (BB%), thus preventing fewer free outs and generating more on-base opportunities. Despite a general lack of power, a .300/.370/.400 batting line for 500-plus PAs is plenty valuable.

Other notable booms are aforementioned. According to Fantasy Pros, Vogt and Norris were drafted well ahead of Cervelli but still outside a full standard draft, rendering them “undrafted.” They certainly made more noise than Cervelli. Hundley produced a good deal of value in a small sample; coming from a guy drafted 33rd among catchers — undrafted in 16-team, 2-catcher leagues! — he’s 2015’s waiver wire angel.