2015 Second Base Tier Rankings: April

by
April 6, 2015

I’m entering my first full season doing second-base tiers, after a midseason call-up last year. One small housekeeping item to get out of the way is that I prefer to only include players who are more or less universally eligible at the position. For example, Mookie Betts played 14 games at 2B last year, making him eligible on some sites and ineligible on others. Thus, he does not appear on this list. Additionally, I only ranked players who are currently on Major League rosters.

One thing that was interesting for me as I assembled these rankings is that I don’t have particularly strong feelings about the specific order within some of the tiers, but I have a considerable amount of conviction regarding the tiers themselves. In other words, this year’s 2B crop has some pretty clear-cut groups of elite, near-elite, above-average, etc. With that, let’s get to the rankings:

TIER ONE
Jose Altuve
Robinson Cano

I quite nearly gave Altuve his own tier, but I believe enough in a Cano bounceback that I made room for him too. I wrote about the Houston infield a few weeks ago, so you can check that out for more of my thoughts on Altuve. Short version: I absolutely love Altuve, and do not expect much regression in 2015.

Aside from the power outage, Cano’s 2014 was still highly productive. While he still has to play half his games at Safeco, we’re talking about a guy who averaged 28.4 homers per season from 2009-2013. That 14-homer season last year sure does feel like an outlier, especially if you consider that he hit just five long balls away from Safeco.

TIER TWO
Brian Dozier
Ian Kinsler
Anthony Rendon
Dee Gordon

I wrote about Dozier in October, examining how he adjusted to pitchers changing their plan of attack against him. He’s been a stud for about a year-and-a-half now, and he’s the top option for anyone who passes on Altuve and Cano.

Kinsler isn’t flashy, but he’s just so consistent. He’s comfortable. He’s safe. Rendon has tremendous upside, and he’s coming off a spectacular 2014. He would be at the top of this tier, if not for his sprained MCL and the uncertain timetable for his return.

Gordon is one of those classic “more valuable in fantasy than in real life” players. He has zero power, and there will always be concerns about his on-base skill, but the guy stole 64 bases last year. That’s fantasy gold, even if he’s not really helping you anywhere else.

TIER THREE
Jason Kipnis
Ben Zobrist
Neil Walker
Kolten Wong
Daniel Murphy
Dustin Pedroia
Chase Utley
Howie Kendrick

This is the “other guys you’d be comfortable starting in a mixed league” tier. It’s also the tier where I don’t feel there’s all that much separating the value of these players on an individual basis. For example, the gap between Zobrist and Utley is razor-thin, yet I have them ranked five spots apart.

If you got any of these players as your starting second baseman, I think you did just fine, as long as you didn’t overpay. The No. 7 to No. 14 range of fantasy 2B is a deep pool of solid options. If you’re a Rendon owner in a mixed league and any of these guys are available on waivers, you know what to do.

TIER FOUR
Marcus Semien
Rougned Odor
Jedd Gyorko
Martin Prado
Brandon Phillips
Asdrubal Cabrera
Micah Johnson
Brett Lawrie 

Now we’re getting into AL/NL-only 2B options, also known as the mixed-league MI guys. This tier is a mix of unexciting, yet somewhat productive veterans, and risky youngsters with upside. Semien is getting a lot of love from fantasy analysts this year, but he’s going to need to show me that he can make consistent contact before I’m considering ranking him any higher than this.

It’s anyone’s guess as to whether the 2013 or 2014 version of Gyorko is the real deal. Our projections are betting on him to essentially split the difference, which is the most likely outcome. Still, if he can get back to the level of his productive rookie season, he’ll be a valuable commodity.

That’s the story with all of the youngsters in this tier. They all have the upside to jump up to the higher tiers, but there’s a ton of volatility. Personally, I still usually prefer to roll the dice on upside plays as opposed to settling for a Brandon Phillips.

TIER FIVE
Luis Valbuena
Chris Owings
Devon Travis
Scooter Gennett
Arismendy Alcantara
Omar Infante
Joe Panik
DJ LeMahieu
Tommy La Stella
Jace Peterson
Jonathan Schoop
Emilio Bonifacio
Nick Franklin
Rickie Weeks

I’ve got some interest in Valbuena due to his line-drive power, but his career .229 AVG is quite the albatross. Owings is intriguing because he has a bit of pop and also some speed, but his strike-zone awareness is rather poor, and he’ll probably lose at least a little bit of playing time to Aaron Hill.

“Devon, get the tables!” Oops, wrong Devon. Our projections aren’t all that optimistic about this particular Devon, but if he can hold down the starting job, he’ll likely jump up a tier next month. Alcantara has loud tools, but will need to significantly improve his contact rate to be a worthy fantasy option.





 

Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.

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stuck in a slump
9 years ago

Really? Kipnis drops two tiers because of an oblique injury last year that sapped his power but kept his speed in tact? When he’s healthy, he’s one of the top 2B in the game due to his 15 HR 30 SB combo. Altuve needs to crack double digit HR’s or repeat his 50+ SB performance before I’m going to buy that high on him.

1
Scott Strandberg
9 years ago
Reply to  stuck in a slump

Drops two tiers from what? I have never once ranked him in the top tier since I started doing these rankings. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that he can consistently hit left-handed pitching and, injury or not, the guy hasn’t hit a homer since last July.

I still have him ranked 7th, and gave plenty of consideration to dropping him a bit further. If you want more of my thoughts on Kipnis, I wrote this in September: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-lost-season-of-jason-kipnis/

3
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

Last year he was consistently ranked in the top tier with Cano on this site. You may never have ranked him that highly, but this site has, and the oblique injury would explain almost all of his problems last year. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he comes out around his 2012-2013 production while Altuve’s .360 BABIP regresses. If his SB’s drop to the 30’s again, or the K’s regress, I just don’t see Altuve being nearly as valuable being on a terrible team, having no RBI opportunities, below average BB%, and a career ISO .098 just doesn’t inspire me to rank him above the likes of Cano, Kipnis, Kinsler, or Zobrist.

-2
Scott Strandberg
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

Last year Kipnis was in the top tier with Cano in April and May, before J.P. quit and I took over. I never would have had him in the first tier to begin with. I do not understand why people think Kipnis belongs there. In his three full major-league seasons, his weighted offense has been above league-average once, and that was in 2013, when his BABIP was .345 (.291 in 2012, .288 in 2014).

A dozen homers with ~20 SB and a .250 AVG isn’t exactly a fantasy goldmine. Solid player? Hell yes, that’s why I still have him ranked in the top seven. Stud? Top-tier guy? Not in my eyes.

0
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

Most people don’t play by linear weights, ISO, or SLG. For a league that counts OBP, Kipnis is good, and as a disclaimer I’m tossing out his 2014 as being injury riddled and not indicative of actual ability. 30 SB and 15 HR is great, 2B has gotten much deeper with position eligibilities lately (Rendon, for example). In standard 5×5, Kipnis still shines, in points leagues where BB’s count, Kipnis has been a top 3 performer until last year. I hate one trick ponies in fantasy, and so far, Altuve is a one trick pony with an otherwise empty AVG. Kipnis contributes in 4/5 categories, and AVG is often too volatile for me to worry about production there compared to the other stats.

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Scott Strandberg
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

Your entire argument is basically just confirmation bias. You believe Kipnis is more valuable than Altuve, so you’re grasping at the few indicators that might back you up.

You’re openly discarding an entire season of a three-year career, simply because he missed the month of May? Just to play devil’s advocate, if he was so hurt, why was he playing every single day for four months after he returned from the DL, and still stealing bases as well?

Is it possible (or even likely) that the oblique was *partially* responsible for his struggles last year? Of course it is, but you’re mistaking speculation for fact.

Your argument about Altuve being a one-trick pony is confusing at best. Dee Gordon is the one-trickiest of one-trick ponies, and he was *still* the No. 3 fantasy 2B last year. Providing elite production in two categories (or in Gordon’s case, one) is more valuable than being above-average across the board.

Furthermore, Altuve and Kipnis are quite similar regarding their output of runs scored, so at this point, you’re arguing that Kipnis’ 7-8 HR and marginal RBI advantages outweigh Altuve’s significantly higher AVG and SB. That doesn’t hold water for me in the slightest.

Finally, while I agree that AVG is more volatile than other categories, you can’t just disregard the fact that Altuve’s career AVG is a full 40 points higher than Kipnis. That is a huge gap, and quite obviously indicative of one player being more skilled in that area than the other.

I can’t believe I just spent that much time explaining why Jose Altuve is ranked above Jason Kipnis.

4
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

Because a leadoff hitter is going to drive in runs, amirite?

Seriously though, Kipnis is batting second tonight against a LHP, which bodes well for his fantasy production in both R and RBI. I also wouldn’t call 30 RBI insignificant. My entire argument has been based around the fact that when you look at Altuve’s career, I see a guy who doesn’t walk, a guy who put up 33 and 35 SB’s in his first two years then suddenly see his BsR score surge and his SB’s spike above 50. I see a guy who had never posted an MLB BABIP over .321, a guy who ranked 15th and 7th the past two years in GDP, plays on a team who ranked 22nd in RS, and I see a guy who could hit right at, or just below .300, who wont top 90 R, likely wont top 60 RBI, will hit 4-8 HR and steal 30-35 bases.

To me, of his projections, Steamer seems most likely, but I’d be willing to take the under on it. I’m more leary of a guy coming off a year where his wRC+ surged 50 points than I am a guy who played through an injury (and he’s admitted that the injury lingered, and it’s the same injury that took out Cueto for a full season) but has shown that he can contribute in more than one dimension.

You say that I’m falling to confirmation bias, which could be true. But it seems like you’ve bought into one big year as a player’s true talent level without questioning the underlying metrics.

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stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

I also find it laughable that you’re accusing me of cherry picking by ignoring an injury riddled year of one player when you refuse to acknowledge that in his first 1480 PA’s he posted wRC+’s of 132, 100, 129, but you ignore the fact that in 1536 PA’s, Altuve posted wRC+’s of 80, 102, 85. Now you add in last year and Kipnis’ 132, 100, 129, 86 vs Altuve’s 80, 102, 85, 135, and by wRC+ they look almost identical.

And just to clarify, I’m not saying Altuve is bad, I just feel that there is much more downside with him than there is Kipnis.

Below is a link to an article from July talking about how Kipnis said he was going to play through the injury and try to adjust:

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2014/07/post_323.html

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ErnestoSalvaderimember
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

You’re outsmarting yourself here bud. Both players have over 2,000 PAs in the majors. I would assume everyone would pretty much agree we’ve seen both players ceiling and both players floor. You’re just comparing Altuve’s floor to Kipnis’ ceiling and calling Altuve overrated. wRC+ is a stupid stat for this comparison because we don’t care about park adjustments, and it doesn’t represent the value of SBs in fantasy.

2011-2014 Averages
.306/.345/.406 41SB 6HR 76R 49RBI – Altuve
.261/.338/.389 28SB 12HR 78R 67RBI – Kipnis

40 points in batting average is monstrous and it’s a pretty weak argument to say Kipnis’ power will cancel that out when he had his worst power output in his most recent season.

2
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

Which, Ernesto, completely ignores the fact that Kipnis was playing hurt. Both you and the author are refusing to acknowledge this fact, or the fact that he tried to make adjustments and play through injury last year. I’m also not comparing floor vs ceiling, I’m comparing both (wRC+ was a stat used by the author to justify his position and why I used it) apples to apples with a slight discount to Kipnis’ 2014 due to his injury and a slight penalty to Altuve’s 2014 for unprecedented results.

Again, I’m not saying Altuve is awful, I’m saying that Altuve needs to prove that he can repeat last year’s insane .341/.377/.453 line and 50+ SB’s which when combined with Kipnis’ injury riddled 2014 is the only reason Altuve looks better in comparison. Both need to prove it this year, Altuve needs to prove last year wasn’t a fluke, Kipnis needs to prove that he can stay healthy and that his oblique was the only reason for his terrible year. Unless, of course, you’re thinking that 15 HR and 30 SB is a ceiling for Kipnis. It might be, but since he’s done it twice, I doubt it is.

I just see a lot of things wrong with Altuve that I’m not sure can be fixed (low BB%, low ISO) and a lot of room for volatility (spikes in BABIP and BsR). To me, Kipnis has already proved a huge asset capable of putting up non-negative AVG’s, a good number of SB’s (right on par with Altuve before last year), and a good number of HR’s in an offense deprived game. Altuve has shown me that he can put up plus AVG’s, steal a good number of bases, and that’s it. Add to it that the Indians have a better offense than the Astros, and I just see Kipnis in the #2 hole being more valuable overall than Altuve leading off.

0
ErnestoSalvaderimember
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

1. Author never used wRC+
2. You’re making a lot of absolute assumptions based on a narrative.
–Altuve won’t maintain ANY of his 2014 break out
–Kipnis ONLY didn’t hit for power because of his injury
–Kipnis WONT be effected by injury again this year.
3. Kipnis needed a bigger BABIP spike to hit .280 than Altuve did to hit .340. At 28, He’s now exiting his speed peak which is still where most of his value comes from. Expecting him to reach 30SB again is slightly bullish. Expecting him to show more power while acknowledging how much nagging injuries stunted him is also bullish. We’ve seen Kipnis’ best.

1
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

1. He did: “…his weighted offense…” Am I mistaken that wRC+ is weighted offense?

2. I’m making a judgement and explaining my reasons why I wouldn’t put Altuve as #1, especially if the author believes in a Cano bounceback. Again, you act like I’m saying Altuve sucks, I’m not. You can’t assume injury, and to not discount poor results when a lingering injury is not only evident, but blatant (did you watch Kipnis last year? He could barely hold the bat horizontally most of the time) is irresponsible. Just as it is to assume that massive spikes in volatile stats are given gains that won’t be lost.

3. I never once thought or stated that Kipnis would, or could, hit .280 again. You’re putting words into my mouth.

Being bullish on a bounceback candidate is fine. Being bullish on a guy who’s most volatile stats spiked, when few non-HoFer’s maintained those kinds of spikes experienced at 24, and with his MiLB history not backing any of them up, yes, I’m worried. Since when did being skeptical (after all, I’ve been arguing for both to be on opposite ends of tier two, and honsetly, Gordon being higher than Kipnis is more offensive than anything) become a crime on this site? I could get it if I was calling for a complete collapse from Altuve, or if I was saying Kipnis would hit .300 with 20+ HR and 30+ SB’s. That would be ridiculous.

I’m not at all worried about Kipnis’ SB total, he’s still only 28, hardly an old man, his OBP was 27 points below his career average last year, and he was dropped in the order for much of the season (his wSB and Spd scores are consistent with his 2012 and 2013). If he continues to hit 2nd, I expect those to get back up around 30, which isn’t unreasonable. If he regains his health, which is also not unreasonable, I expect him to hit ~15 HR. A .260/.330/.430 90-15-70-30 line isn’t unreasonable given his history and the obviousness of his injury last year. For the record, I personally have Altuve at .290/.335/.390 with an 90-7-45-35 line. The injury was caused by a change in Kipnis’ training regimen, something that the Indians have told him not to repeat this off season. So it’s not like there’s a lot of reason to believe that he’s still hurt or repeating the mistakes he made last year that would cause him to get hurt again.

And remember that a large part of my argument has to do with lineup position and team offense. Are the Astros all of the sudden going to be a top 10 offense next year? The Indians were, and that was without a healthy Bourn, Swisher, or Kipnis, and it was before they added Moss.

Remember my first post: “When he’s healthy, he’s (Kipnis) one of the top 2B in the game due to his 15 HR 30 SB combo. Altuve needs to crack double digit HR’s or repeat his 50+ SB performance before I’m going to buy that high on him.” Does that sound like I’m really hating on Altuve, or that my valuation of him is just lower than the going rate? I’m asking for a repeat performance based on crazy high spikes, and I’m giving Kipnis the benefit of the doubt given his injury. Either way, I’m done. Feel free to continue to rag on me for calling out volatile stats being likely to regress. We’ll see how the season plays out in September.

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ErnestoSalvaderimember
9 years ago
Reply to  Scott Strandberg

you’re just overthinking it man…

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Emcee Peepants
9 years ago
Reply to  stuck in a slump

I’d be more concerned with Gordon or Kinsler above Kipnis than Altuve.

1
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

You might be right, but I just don’t like all of the spikes in Altuve’s numbers, he seems like a prime regression candidate to me. If Altuve is only a .290 hitter with 30 SB’s and less than 90 R’s, and I just see no reason to have him that high. I see being worried about Kipnis, but maybe bottom of the second tier with Altuve being the first in the second tier if you believe the hype and in a Cano bounceback.

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Lanidrac
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

You do realize that last year was Altuve’s 3rd full season at age 24, right? Which is more likely at that point, a breakout year or a career year? There’s a decent chance Altuve is even better this year.

1
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

You do realize that his minor league career never saw a sustained babip spike, nor did he ever manage more than 42 SB’s, right? Add to it that he’s shown absolutely zero power in the majors, and which are you going to bank on? An outlier year or a regression towards past career norms? Progression isn’t a given

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Scott Strandberg
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

Yeah, Altuve has ABSOLUTELY ZERO power! Heck, his 7 homers and .112 ISO last year were almost as bad as…Jason Kipnis! (6 HR, .090 ISO) Also, how dare anyone expect progression from a 24-year-old. That guy has to have already hit his peak, right?

Also, oh yay, minor-league stats. How bout this one: Kipnis never stole more than 12 bases in the minors. I can cite minor-league stats too. Isn’t that fun.

3
Patrick
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

Why all the Altuve hate? He he alot of room for regression from last year’s stats to still be a top 20 player.
The guy has a career year at 24 and we automatically assume he can’t get anywhere near that again?

It is easy to underrate him because of the large pull of his BA. The guy leads off and never walks.

1
stuck in a slump
9 years ago
Reply to  Emcee Peepants

Scott, the difference is that Kipnis has stolen 20+ in the majors in all three of his full big league seasons, even when hurt. A hurt Kipnis is definitely less valuable than a healthy Altuve, but are you going to bank on Kipnis continuing to be hurt this season? And if pointing out spikes that seem unsustainable is ridiculous, then what’s the point of Fangraphs? Do we have batted ball data that shows some kind of progression like Brantley before he busted out?

I’m also not saying that Altuve won’t continue to grow, but last year looked more like an unsustainable burst than steady growth which has me hesitant.

See also Andrus’ small, but unsustained BABIP spike in 2012, or his BsR spike in 2013 that wasn’t sustained. Or Marquis Grissom’s BsR spike in 1992, Willie Wilson’s BABIP spikes between 79-82 coupled with his BsR spike in 79 and 80, or Maybin’s BsR and BABIP spikes in 2011. It’s not all sunshine and roses.

0
Dr. Obvious
9 years ago
Reply to  stuck in a slump

Kipnis went 17th overall in my 12 team league last year…Was thrilled to scoop him up in round 8 this year

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ErnestoSalvaderimember
9 years ago
Reply to  stuck in a slump

*those are 2012-2014 numbers. rate stats are aggregate, counting stats are averages.

0