2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: August

It’s rankings update time! But sadly, this will be the last one of the season. In the past updates, I have listed a bunch of guys on the DL at the end. This time around, they have been completely omitted unless they are expected to return in the coming week.

My usual caveat on how I rank pitchers follows:

It’s essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It’s just a result. So I don’t really care what a pitcher’s ERA is at the moment. What I’m really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you then have to ask yourself if it’s sustainable. Again, more likely is that what we initially forecasted is what is going to be posted the rest of the way, though obviously this is not always the case.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

Tanaka (The P*nis Monster)

Felix Hernandez
Chris Sale

After an uncharacteristic 5.51 ERA in June while struggling with his control, Felix was more king-like in July, as he posted a 2.94 ERA. His SIERA is back above 3.00, which just serves as a reminder that it’s really, really difficult to maintain such an elite skill set for several years running. His strikeout rate is down as his average fastball velocity sits at a career low. He has proven to be immune from velocity-related performance decline so far, but it can’t last forever. Still, he’s not even 30 yet, so he should remain elite for the foreseeable future unless that velocity continues to dip.

Sale had a June to remember, as he posted a 1.83 ERA with an astounding 44.1% K%, which was part of a string of eight straight starts with at least 10 strikeouts. But since that streak was snapped in his first July start, he has posted an absurd 5.22 ERA. That’s despite a 45/6 K/BB ratio over 39.2 innings and a 2.94 xFIP. A ridiculous .378 BABIP and inflated HR/9 is to blame. Obviously, if there’s an opportunity to acquire a top tier arm at any sort of discount, pounce.

Chip (The Robot)

Corey Kluber
David Price
Carlos Carrasco
Johnny Cueto
Cole Hamels

Finally! Kluber posted a .274 BABIP in July, his lowest monthly mark of the season. And sure enough, his ERA was 2.91. That’s what a Kluber with defensive support looks like. Though his batted ball profile (high line drive rate, low pop-up rate) does actually lend itself to an inflated BABIP. So that season .322 BABIP mark isn’t all his fielders’ faults.

Obviously, the switch in ball park won’t do any favors for David Price. But he should enjoy better defensive support, plus an insanely powerful offense to score him some runs. Amazingly, Carrasco has only posted a sub-4.00 ERA during one month, and that was just 3.76 in July. Like Kluber, Carrasco posted the best monthly BABIP of the season in July, but trouble stranding runners led to the less than impressive ERA. I still can’t find a reason to place him anywhere else but this tier.

Welcome to the AL Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels! As discussed here, the move to Kansas City is probably neutral or the slightest of negatives for Cueto. Either way, he immediately becomes one of the best AL pitchers. For Hamels, the move to the American League and a more hitter friendly venue will hurt his value. But, he’ll get better offensive and defensive support. So it might end up being a wash overall to his fantasy value.

Adolf Hitler

Chris Archer
Sonny Gray
Dallas Keuchel

Archer posted his highest monthly ERA in July…of 3.31. Amazingly, his strikeout rate has sat above 30% in every single month, while he has only struggled with his control in May. I worry about what his crazy slider usage is going to do to his elbow in the future, but single season owners don’t need to worry about any long-term health issues that pitch may cause. Next year though, I’d be a bit nervous about paying the sky high price he is likely to fetch in auctions.

So this is the second season in a row that Gray is outperforming his SIERA. Last year was only by a marginal amount, but this year it’s gotten out of control. His low LD% is certainly part of the explanation behind the .247 BABIP, as is his 11.0% IFFB%. Interestingly, he has allowed the second lowest Hard% and the sixth highest Medium% among qualified starters. I don’t know what that means, but it was worth noting before it’s pointed out in the comments as some obviously answer to the low BABIP.

Keuchel’s strikeout rate has risen every month this season. Of course, he posted his highest monthly ERA in July when his skills were best. That’s because he received rotten defensive support as evidenced by a .375 BABIP. Given his sky high ground ball rate, he’s a pretty safe bet the rest of the year and is seemingly less of a risk to bust next. But he’ll have a heck of a hard time repeating as he’ll be relying on that low BABIP again.

Patti (Josh’s Mom)

Danny Salazar
Scott Kazmir
Masahiro Tanaka
Taijuan Walker
Hisashi Iwakuma

Aaaaand Salazar joins the Indians pitching party as he has enjoyed his best monthly BABIP in July as well. Better yet, his HR/FB rate was finally league average and also his lowest monthly mark. His ERA could continue to drop. Kazmir is in a similar situation as Price — he clearly moves to a more hitter friendly home park, but should enjoy better defensive support and a much more potent offense backing him.

Since returning from injury, Tanaka has looked mediocre on the surface given his 4.04 ERA. But he has displayed sterling control and posted an xFIP of just 3.20. Home runs have been a major trouble spot, but that 17% HR/FB rate on the season has to come down. By keeping him in this tier, I’m betting that at this point he can make it through the season with him arm intact.

Despite a 4.73 ERA, I have decided to bump Taijuan up a tier. Seriously, in what rankings update will you ever see a pitcher with an ERA that high get boosted in projected rest of season value?! Since the beginning of June, he has struck out 26.4% of batters, walked just 2.9% of them and has posted a 3.11 xFIP. His fastball-splitter/changeup combination has been fantastic, while his cutter and curve have both been respectable at inducing whiffs. If his ERA finishes above 4.00 this year, he’ll be everyone’s favorite 2016 breakout.

Yes, this is probably a more aggressive ranking of Iwakuma than you’ve seen anywhere else. But then again, I was also seemingly higher on him in the preseason as well. His skills have suffered a minor degradation, but what’s killed him has been the home run ball. Since that 21.4% HR/FB rate is going to drop in a hurry, he could be a nice source of profit for those daring enough to acquire him now.

Gorbachenka (The Troll)

Jeff Samardzija
Anibal Sanchez
Collin McHugh
Garrett Richards
Jake Odorizzi
Trevor Bauer
Drew Hutchison
Jose Quintana
Mike Fiers

After giving us hope in May that his strikeout rate was on the way up, Samardzija posted a pathetic 15.8% strikeout rate in July. Seriously Jeff, what happened to you? I can’t even blame it on the poor White Sox defense or the unforgiving home park as his BABIP and HR/FB rate are both around the league average. He’s just not missing bats like he used to, or getting called strikes.

Richards has taken a page out of the Sonny Gray book of pitching as he’s a ground ball pitcher, but has somehow managed to post a depressed .259 BABIP. Like Gray, he’s doing it by keeping his line drive rate low and generating pop-ups, but the low line drive rate isn’t a skill he has ever displayed before. Smells like a fluke to me. Though his strikeout rate is down after last year’s surge, his SwStk% is actually up. My xK% equation suggests he actually has a bit of strikeout rate upside if he maintains his current strike rate types.

So does Hutchison enter next season as a sleeper again? Despite an ERA well above 4.00 last year, he was paid at drafts like he was already established as a mid-3.00 ERA guy. The slider has been less exciting this year, so my own expectations are going to drop. But he’s still due for some major improvements in ERA just due to better fortune on balls in play.

Fiers joins the AL tiers and was rudely welcomed during his Astros debut. Of course, he had to serve in a long relief role on a moment’s notice, so it’s hard to fault him for his struggles. His sub-90 mph fastball that generates above average whiffs and excellent changeup should ensure he continues to earn solid fantasy value.

Mike

Justin Verlander
Phil Hughes
Matt Shoemaker
Yordano Ventura
CC Sabathia
Jesse Chavez
Nate Karns
Erasmo Ramirez
Andrew Heaney
Kyle Gibson

Verlander’s velocity has not rebounded back up 93 mph and his strikeout rate is down yet another tick. He’s also suddenly become an extreme fly ball pitcher. Just because of who he is and the expectation that he could make some adjustments to get his ERA back below 4.00, he’s going to remain in this tier and not get dropped further.

How does a pitcher who averages 96 mph with his fastball and features a curve ball with a 19.3% SwStk% and solid changeup post a sub-20% strikeout rate? The Royals have to be wondering the same thing about their potential young stud Yordano Ventura. With an above average ground ball rate, the seeds are there to repeat the 3.20 ERA he posted last year. Throw in a pitcher friendly home park and world class defensive support and you have the makings of yet another 2016 sleeper.

Yeah yeah, laugh all you want. I’m not budging on Sabathia! However, you would be proud to hear that I finally did jettison him from my 12-team mixed local league many weeks ago. 2016 Comeback Player of the Year?

Liz

Kendall Graveman
Chris Tillman
Hector Santiago
R.A. Dickey
Wade Miley
Wei-Yin Chen
Ubaldo Jimenez
Yovani Gallardo
Lance McCullers
Ervin Santana
Luis Severino

Graveman has moved into respectability after returning from the minors in late May. He has posted acceptable strikeout and walk rates, while inducing grounders 50% of the time. A solid, albeit unexciting profile. His sub-3.00 ERA is being suppressed thanks to a ridiculous 84.6% LOB%. That won’t last, so his ERA should rise close to his near 4.00 xFIP since being recalled.

Dickey has been on a roll of late, having posted a minuscule 1.24 ERA over his last five starts. Of course, those results aren’t actually supported by his underlying skills, as his xFIP sits at 4.04. He has a .204 BABIP and tiny 2.3% HR/FB rate to thank. So after dropping him in my tiers, he ain’t getting a bump back up.

I wasn’t sure exactly what to do with McCullers, but ultimately decided to drop him just one tier. Before his last game’s implosion, he was rolling and posting strong skills. He’ll be back up at some point again in several weeks and should have value when he returns. But since that might only be a month or so of starts, his value is capped.

Josh

Eduardo Rodriguez
Colby Lewis
Jered Weaver
Nathan Eovaldi
Edinson Volquez
Danny Duffy

As is typical with rookie pitchers, Rodriguez has been up and down since his debut. But, both his changeup and slider have been excellent to solid in term of generating whiffs, which is a good sign moving forward. But the threat of an innings cap shutting him down early hurts his potential value.

It’s interesting to see how reinventing himself as a lower strikeout, slightly more tolerable control pitcher, Volquez is enjoying a second straight season with an ERA just above 3.00. It’s not a profile I would bet on maintaining such an impressive ERA.