Hindsight is 20/20, so the old saying goes, but in retrospect, it shouldn’t be that surprising that Jay Bruce had a season like he just did. Looking at his 2011-2013 seasons, he was already regressing in many ways. However, when you’re still hitting 30+ homers annually, it’s easy to overlook things like an uncharacteristically high .322 batting average on balls in play, that made his 2013 look better than it probably was.

Bruce had been one of the game’s most reliable power hitters over the past several seasons, but some crucial trends in his data pointed to the fact that — if he struggled in any unexpected ways — his value could drop off a cliff, which is exactly what happened in 2014. The reason I phrased that the way I did is that Bruce had already been steadily declining, in areas where he could expectedly continue to struggle. Throwing another negative variable into the equation did him in.

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Melky Cabrera has been many things througout his career – prospect, bust, deadbeat, star, cheater, and injured are a few words that describe different phases of his career. After rebounding from a 2013 season that included a scary growth on his spine, Cabrera is now wafting through free agency as a top outfielder. His 81/16/73/6/.301 fantasy line was worth $19, according to Zach Sanders. While he wasn’t a fantasy monster, he was certainly an excellent acquisition for those who drafted him for $1 or picked him up off waivers.

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What I’m positing is: Don’t draft Denard Span at 2014 prices in 2015. I’m sure there are some daily matchups where he makes sense. And he’s a decent real-life player. But I’m not going to belly up to this bar. Not after he played to a top-20 outfielder season.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a nutshell: This veteran club doesn’t appear to have many holes in the field but injuries are going to happen — especially when most of your starters are 30+ years old. The biggest need will likely be reliable pitching.

1. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B: Franco rebounded from a terrible start to 2014 to have a respectable second half in the minors, which earned him a big league cup of coffee. Unfortunately for both the young player and the Phillies, incumbent first baseman Ryan Howard is locked up in Philly for at least two more seasons. That limits Franco’s potential playing time and could push him over to third base, which is currently manned by the replacement-level Cody Asche. It might seem like a decent upgrade but the former doesn’t project well defensively at the hot corner.

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Episode 179

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk about, among other newsy topics, the Jason Heyward–Shelby Miller swap and the signings of Billy Butler and Russell Martin. Of course, we also discuss outfielders! The end-of-season OF rankings went up a week ago this past Monday. Those visited in this episode: Jayson Werth, Christian Yelich, Starling Marte, J.D. Martinez, and Billy Hamilton. The topics inevitably lead us to converse about strategy, and as a result we answer a listener question that had been waiting patiently.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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And by does it, I mean that he doesn’t. Unless we’re talking about disappointing fantasy baseball players, in which case: repeat performance. The Tampa Bay Rays’ center fielder hit .244 with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 542 plate appearances in a dull campaign. He finished the season on the disabled list, of course, so if we extrapolate to 600 PAs, which is about how many he accumulated in the season prior, then he’d have recorded 11 homers, 71 runs, 40 RBIs, and 17 thefts, all of which are about … worse than how many he accumulated in the season prior.

Why does Desmond Jennings continue to disappoint? It’s a valid question. It may not have a simple answer. But, just as well, it might.

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• Robinson Cano broke his toe playing in Japan. Here is the latest news on his situation.

Cano also said he was encouraged by the fact that he woke up Sunday feeling better than expected. MLB doctors examined him late Sunday night, determining that he should be able to resume regular offseason workouts in mid-December. Cano expects to be back to normal well in advance of Spring Training.

“I thought it was going to be worse today, but just a little pain,” he said. “It’s just something that’s bothering me. Hopefully I’ll recover in four weeks and nothing else happens.”

The key to see if he is healthy in spring training monitor his ability to run … well run as good as he could previously.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Mets have a lot of promising young players, which is good news for a team with question marks at third base, second base, shortstop and in the outfield. Sophomore catcher Travis d’Arnaud is also no sure thing given his always-present health issues.

1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP: The Mets began to reap the benefits of the 2012 R.A. Dickey deal in 2014 with the emergence of catcher Travis d’Arnaud but the ’15 season should bring another talented prospect to The Show. The hard-throwing Syndergaard stubbed his toe a little bit in Triple-A in ’14 but he still had an encouraging season for a 22-year-old starter in Triple-A. He has the stuff and the build to be a top-shelf starter for years to come.

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If you hadn’t heard of 27-year-old David Peralta entering the season, you can be excused. The left-hander pitched briefly for the Cardinals organization back in 2005 and 2006. He promptly left professional baseball after a couple lousy seasons. After dominating the Indy leagues, the Diamondbacks gave him a call in 2013 with an offer to join their system. He quickly rose through the ranks.

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Over the next few months, we’ll find out if the Cubs plan to contend in 2015. Team president Theo Epstein teased as much during a press conference at the end of the season, and if a pitcher like Jon Lester or Max Scherzer joins a rotation that has already dramatically exceeded expectations thanks to the breakouts of Jake Arrieta and rookie Kyle Hendricks, there will be little reason to doubt him.

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