2014 Shortstop Tier Rankings: April
With one day in the books, you’ve already got one prediction right when it comes to the shortstop position: Yes, Jose Reyes will get hurt at some point this season. On the first at bat of the season, to be precise.
While Reyes’ injury history was surely priced into his ranking and projections already, his opening-day-uhh-why-did-he-play-on-the-weekend-at-less-than-100-percent injury serves as a reminder that things can change quickly. Chris Owings is a full-time starter, Alex Gonzalez surely earned himself some additional early PAs, and Hanley Ramirez is the bustiest bust to ever bust.
It’s technically a day too late, but here are the moment-in-time shortstop tiers for the 2014 season.
TIER ONE
Troy Tulowitzki
Hanley Ramirez
Slow start aside for Ramirez, he and Tulowitzki are the best shortstops going until they’re not. Ramirez was an absolute monster on a per-game basis last season, and while Tulo brings with him a likely DL stint, if everything breaks right he could make a crazy person look smart.
TIER TWO
Jean Segura
Ian Desmond
Everth Cabrera
Speed rules in the second tier, and while some had Segura pegged as a top-three option, I’m a little less optimistic about the pop in the bat. Cabrera is a steals horse when he can get on base, but the downside with him is obviously power and average. Desmond brings a nice blend of everything, and even if you don’t think he can repeat 20-20 for the third straight season, 15-15 carries just fine at this position.
TIER THREE
Jose Reyes
Elvis Andrus
Starlin Castro
Brad Miller
Ben Zobrist (where eligible)
This isn’t meant to be reactionary after opening day; I had Reyes ranked sixth among shortstops anyway. He’s just such a huge injury risk in year two playing on concrete, and with the average less likely to settle in at .300 than in the past, the group above offer a safer floor. Andrus can’t even hit for pop in Arlington but the high BABIP and relatively low K-rate make him a safe average play, and it now looks like his down 2012 on the basepaths was a fluke. Miller offers a nice power-speed combo, a Desmond-light of sorts. Zobrist may not qualify, but I know at least on Yahoo he is 2B/SS/OF, giving him value even if the homers and steals fall a level below Desmond and even Miller.
TIER FOUR
Xander Bogaerts
J.J. Hardy
Alexei Ramirez
Andrelton Simmons
Jed Lowrie
Asdrubal Cabrera
Chris Owings
Now that Owings has a job, he becomes somewhat intriguing. In 2013, he hit 12 home runs with 20 stolen bases in under 600 Triple-A plate appearances, and his BABIP in the minors has been consistently high. The double-digit pop probably isn’t a realistic expectation, but 15 steals are a good bet if he hangs on to the job for the season. His average won’t hurt, either, though his miniscule minor league walk rate makes him a bit of a real-life concern for the D-Backs.
TIER FIVE
Jimmy Rollins
Erick Aybar
Alcides Escobar
Dee Gordon
Jonathan Villar
This tier plays out based on what you need, really – Aybar is a safe average play and should pile up runs, Rollins offers a power-speed upside the others don’t, and Gordon and Villar are strictly around for stolen bases. Both of the latter could steal 50 if their OBPs afford them the opportunities, but if ifs were fifths, right? Rollins could probably be a tier higher, maybe should, but the declining contact rate and the poor lineup around him give me pause for runs, RBI and average.
TIER SIX
Derek Jeter
Jhonny Peralta
Zack Cozart
Jordy Mercer
Yunel Escobar
Brandon Crawford
Pedro Florimon
Adeiny Hechavarria
Stephen Drew spec play
Drew isn’t a blow-away fantasy commodity when he plays, but in deeper leagues, a .250-15-5 shortstop is relevant. If he lands in a favorable environment, he’s going to be worth an add, but obviously deeper teams need help in the interim, too. That’s where this group comes in, offering either a single stat or the promise of some runs and RBI. Plus, Jeter brings plenty of joke potential in head-to-head formats, and you can’t put a price on unoriginal comedy.
Blake Murphy is a freelance sportswriter based out of Toronto. Formerly of the Score, he's the managing editor at Raptors Republic and frequently pops up at Sportsnet, Vice, and around here. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.
This comment can be taken in so many ways:
“…and while Tulo brings with him a likely DL stint, if everything breaks right he could make a crazy person look smart.”
We’d hate to see what it would look like for Tulo to break wrongly…
He’s got all kinds of nuggets hidden in here, “…playing on concrete…group above offer a safer floor.”
Why would xander bogaerts be behind brad miller? It might just be me be my bias but I don’t think so. The only fantasy category I would guess brad miller would have the advantage is steals. Xander has more power, a better hit tool and a better lineup for runs and rbis. I don’t know about millers discipline but I know Xander’s is good. I think that they should at least be in the same tier if xander isn’t ahead
I assume it’s because Xander has 50 MLB PA’s and Miller has 335, in which he performed at a higher level. I would expect Xander to move up as the season progresses, if he lives up to expectations, but there’s not much MLB performance to go on yet.
FYI, Miller has slightly better plate discipline numbers than Xander, with ~12/17 BB/K percentages vs. ~10/19.
Thanks I didn’t realize he had that much serice time. And thanks for the rates
The FG writers in general are much higher on Miller than I’ve seen pretty much anywhere else.
Two nit picky points: Isn’t Han Ram just as likely as Tulo to end up on the DL?
And, you make it sound like Segura isn’t a top three option, but he’s the third shortstop on your list.
Jeter is the best
Anderlton Simmons is in Tier 4? You know we dont value players based only on HR, RBI and runs scored anymore right? We have discovered other elements of the game that make a player contribute to his team. Please join us in 2014.
Simmons and his 4.6 WAR season disagrees with your “tiers”
This is also a fantasy baseball site and they’re fantasy baseball tier rankings. Doubting most people play in leagues where defense, range and WAR are counted. Please join us in whatever year people look at the website they’re on and the context of articles before commenting.