2014 Second Base Tier Rankings: June
This is my first month on the second-base beat, and I can’t wait to hear who I’ve ranked too high or too low, preferably in caps lock in the comments section below or on Twitter. Either way, caps lock is crucial here. Don’t let me down. Jokes aside, I’ve got over 40 players in these seven tiers, and I hope you find them useful.
TIER ONE
Even after two solid months of sub-.100 isolated power, I am still placing Cano in his own tier. The first part of my reasoning here is that, despite the fact that he hit just one home run in each of the season’s first two months, he did everything else so exceptionally well in May that he was still the No. 4 2B for the month. His batting line was a robust .355/.393/.458, he struck out just ten times while drawing eight walks, he swiped a couple bases, drove in 19 runs, etc.
Secondly, it’s Robinson Cano. The same guy with five consecutive 25+ HR seasons. I know he’s now in a ballpark that suppresses power, I know he’s hitting way too many ground balls, I know that the rest of the Seattle lineup at times looks like some terribly misguided attempt at self-deprecating humor. Still, it’s Robinson Cano. He has performed at such a high level for so many years that I can’t imagine him ending the season with fewer than 15 homers, barring injury (he’s currently sidelined with a contusion on his hand, but it’s considered a minor issue). Would you be surprised if he turned it on and finished the season in the 20-25 HR range? Me either. It’s Robinson Cano.
With all that said, the gap between Cano and the next tier has shrunk significantly. Part of that is a very slight downgrade to my expectations for Cano himself, but most of it is that I’m buying into some of the breakout performances we’ve seen over the last two months. If Cano only hits one homer again in June, and the guys in the second tier continue to excel, he will certainly find himself struggling to hold onto the top spot on this list.
TIER TWO
Ian Kinsler
Brian Dozier
Dee Gordon
Jose Altuve
Dustin Pedroia
Jason Kipnis
I’m still no fan of Gordon’s hit tool, but let’s get real here. He stole 21 bases in May, despite hitting just .244/.311/.309. That’s more steals in one month than Altuve — the American League leader in stolen bases (20) — has on the season. He’s a total one-trick pony, but I don’t care one bit what the rest of your skill set looks like when you’re stealing 20+ bases in a single month for my fantasy team. Is this ranking aggressive? You bet it is, but he could steal 100 bases if he keeps this up. I still don’t even view Gordon as much more than a second-division regular, but this is fantasy baseball, not real baseball, and I want those 100 steals, thank you very much.
I’m not a big believer in Dozier’s ability to post a solid batting average either, but through two full months, he’s on pace for a 30/30 season. His .232 AVG leaves plenty to be desired, but he’s still scoring a ton of runs at the top of the Twins lineup, thanks to the fact that he’s drawn 32 walks in 53 games. Dozier’s ability to pile up the counting stats makes him a legitimate top option. Honestly, what more does this guy have to do before people buy in 100 percent? He’s been producing at this level for an entire calendar year now.
As previously mentioned, Altuve leads the American League in steals with 20, and he’s hitting .318/.360/.430. He has struck out just 19 times in 242 plate appearances. Altuve is awesome.
TIER THREE
Daniel Murphy
Neil Walker
Howie Kendrick
Chase Utley
Anthony Rendon
Matt Carpenter
Ben Zobrist
This tier probably has the most volatility. The top portion is made up of four relatively known quantities who are having very good seasons. Then you’ve got Rendon, who was hitting .169 in May until closing the month on a 6-for-10 run that made his month look slightly less horrible. It was a very disappointing way to follow up his fantastic April, in which he hit 14 extra-base hits, compared to May, when he amassed all of five. I still love Rendon, but I can’t ignore the fact that he was a black hole for four weeks.
Still, these guys are all in the same tier for a reason. Any of the seven options in this tier have the potential to put up top-five production at the position in any given month — through two months, Murphy has done just that, as he’s currently the No. 5 fantasy 2B. There’s high-floor, low-ceiling guys like Kendrick in here. You’ve got toolsy guys like Rendon and Zobrist, who can be somewhat boom-or-bust types. Carpenter’s in here because I had to stick his empty batting average somewhere, while still acknowledging that said batting average has value…you get the idea. If you own one of the guys in this tier, you’ll likely be fine going forward, but the players in this third tier have more warts than those in the first two.
TIER FOUR
Brandon Phillips
Aaron Hill
Martin Prado
Kolten Wong
Yangervis Solarte
Gordon Beckham
Here’s your “formerly productive veterans on the decline” paired with “youngsters on the rise” tier. Oh, and Gordon Beckham’s here too. Phillips doesn’t run anymore and his plate discipline (3.6% BB-rate, 20.2% K-rate) has been so ugly that it’s borderline-NSFW, but he’ll still probably hit around .270 with 18 homers like he does every year. Hill is making his awesome 2012 feel like it was a decade ago, whereas Prado has turned back the clock to his ugly 2011, except with way more strikeouts. These three are all still somewhat productive in at least a category or two, but are likely over-owned in general due to name recognition.
Even though I have him ranked behind those guys, I’d personally take a shot at Wong over any of them. He’s been white-hot since returning from Triple-A, and I was high on him coming into the year. However, he’s ranked where he is because, while he does appear to have made a significant adjustment, we can’t forget that the Cardinals had to send him back down to Triple-A in the first place. I’ll need more than a 53 PA sample to buy in completely. I’m also still not convinced he can hit lefties. Still, he’s looked awfully good lately.
TIER FIVE
Jedd Gyorko
Jed Lowrie
Mike Aviles
Omar Infante
Emilio Bonifacio
Derek Dietrich
Brian Roberts
Tommy La Stella
Dustin Ackley
Luis Valbuena
Scooter Gennett
Rickie Weeks
Gyorko is just depressing right now. Even thinking about the season he’s had so far makes me feel kind of sad and hollow inside. Consensus top-100 prospect in 2012 and 2013, hit 23 homers in his first major-league season last year…currently hitting .169/.214/.282. His weighted on-base average is .219. If I was trying to spin this in a positive fashion, I could point out that he hit four home runs in May after just one in April. However, he also hit .186 in May, striking out 24 times and drawing just two walks.
It’s a shame that Aviles will see less playing time with Kipnis once again healthy. His Swiss army knife defensive abilities (he’s started games at 2B, 3B, SS and LF this year) will keep him in the lineup at least semi-regularly, but he was hitting well as a regular — he posted a .743 OPS in May.
TIER SIX
Kelly Johnson
Grant Green
Rougned Odor
Jonathan Schoop
Marcus Semien
DJ LeMahieu
Danny Espinosa
Alberto Callaspo
Sean Rodriguez
Darwin Barney
Green’s been hitting quite well, Odor has upside, Johnson is better than terrible…yep, that’s all the good things I have to say about this part of the list. Sigh. Abandon all hope, ye who enter Tier Six.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
Which tier would Brett Lawrie fit in?
I’d put him in Tier Four.
I think that’s a little harsh re: Prado. He had a similar slump to begin last year and ended up with great numbers. Over the last 3 weeks he’s hitting .308/.373/.485 with only 9 strikeouts in 68 AB
There’s a healthy dose of “I’m generally not as high on Prado as most people” involved in that ranking. No. 12 2B last year, No. 8 2B in 2012 (and that was the year that he randomly picked up 17 of his 33 career steals). Just not a big fan.
The Giants have been running out Brandon Hicks to the second base position frequently this season. Is there a tier 7 ?
Hicks is basically Mark Reynolds with MI eligibility and better than average defense as well. Why he is getting no respect I don’t know
Total oversight on my part to not include him on this list. Just forgot about him somehow. I’d have him near the top of Tier Six. He had one month of Reynolds-esque production in April (.221/.338/.441). He really came crashing back down to earth in May (.159/.265/.284) and he’s a career .161/.266/.339 hitter in the majors. I’d say he’s a poor man’s Mark Reynolds with MI eligibility, and I’m not placing a ton of value on a poor man’s Mark Reynolds.
The main difference I see between him and Reynolds (apart from the really valuable fantasy position eligibility) is that Hicks still has the ability to learn to reduce K’s. Projection systems for him are clearly garbage because most of his previous years MLB PA’s were pinch hit (so the wrong replacement level is being used).
His slash splits this year
1st time up v SP – .275/.370/.450
2nd time up v SP – .162/.279/.378
3rd+ time up v SP – .267/.313/.667
1st time up v RP – .107/.282/.250
This looks to me like a guy who obviously has some big flaws in his swing – but who is also still learning about MLB pitching and able to punish the hell out of mistakes
He’s 28 years old, and has a career .247 AVG and 28.2% K-rate in 2,668 minor-league plate appearances. I also think Reynolds has considerably more pop.
I didn’t see Derek Dietrich.
I see him now
Lowrie in tier 5 is ridic. He put the health concerns to rest by amassing 600 PA last year, and has had but a strained neck so far this year. He cooled off to an extent this month but should get lots of R/RBI in that lineup, has pop and good OBP. Even if he won’t hit many homers or steal any bases, that’s a 4-cat contributor from the second weakest fielding slot. I would have him above everyone in tier 4 except maybe Phillips.
Yeah, you’re probably right. I might have overreacted to his awful May (.189/.257/.295). Bump him up a bit.
To be fair, I checked his stats after I typed that out and saw just how bad his triple slash was for the month. But a better start to June already!
I’m a little surprised to see Utley so low. I understand the injury concerns but he’s slashing .320/.381/.517 and his Rest of Season projections have him at 5 WAR. When healthy he’s still reliable, even at 36 years old.
Utley ranking is completely due to injury concerns. He’s having a great year.
Ugh I have Hill in a shallow 10 team league. Should I continue to hold him or drop for Gyorko, Walker, or Kendrick.
I’d drop him for Walker in a heartbeat.
I fail to see how Pedroia rates ahead of Rendon, Daniel Murphy or Utley. I have all of them on one of my 4 teams but I’d have to say so far Pedroia is behind all of them. Sure, his potential is still there and I love his hustle, but he’s not scoring many points this year.
I think you fail to see it because you’re seemingly dismissing everything except the two month sample of 2014. Keep in mind Pedroia is a notoriously slow starter and never shows power until June. Daniel Murphy is Pedroia’s floor.
Brad Miller and Nick Franklin are both 2B eligible in Yahoo. Would either one make these tiers ROS?
Do you not see much of a future for Schoop, or is it that when you talk of Odor’s upside you’re talking for just this year?
Does Kipnis turn it around? Bigger bust than Cano?
What’s the reason for Jason Kipnis falling from tier 1 to the bottom of tier 2? He’s been slow off his injury but I’d imagine he’ll start producing like it was originally expected soon, he’s even improved his walk rate and strikeout rate, and once his BABIP normalizes he might even play better than he has in past years.
Kipnis to me is a player much better in real life than in fantasy. Those who were high on him were that way because of the 30-SB seasons. However Kipnis didn’t really run in the minors, his average is just ok.
If he doesn’t run and he’s a .290-20-90-90-10 guy, is he really that much different than Daniel Murphy?
And for the record I don’t think he’s even that good. He’s already 27 and he’s a .267 hitter. I think he’s a .267 average, 25 HR max, 15 steal max kind of player.
Good, but ranked properly.
Brian summarized very nicely; the only thing I wanted to add is that I didn’t do last month’s rankings. I would have already had Kipnis in the second tier last month.
“Abandon all hope, ye who enter Tier Six.”
And somehow a guy still owed 2 yrs./26 mil. couldn’t even crack tier six. Well played Dan Uggla, well played.
I’m trading Doolittle for Dee. One trick pony for a one trick pony.
As a Rendon owner I am keeping an eye on Wong, just in case he continues his May slump. Would love to roster him, but no room so I’ll have to gamble.
Hoping more months on the 2b beat will lead to improvements. This list is bad.
Dee Gordon above utley, walker, rebdon, carpenter, zobrist, prado and Kendrick? No
The guys you list are all solid, I have Utley and Rendon on my two teams as starters, but they dont excel at any one category. Just solid across the board production.
Gordon, for all his warts, is putting up elite steal numbers. He can easily carry one category for your team all by himself. The other guys cant really say that, I really dont see a major error in putting Gordon above those guys.
It’s about time someone complained about the Gordon ranking! I’ve been waiting for you, Pat. Thankfully, you don’t appear to have put much time or thought into this, so please do enjoy my retort.
You see, dearest Pat, Dee Gordon has 14 more steals than Billy Hamilton, who is extremely fast. He has 14 more steals than Jose Altuve, who is also very fast. The player with the fourth-best SB total in baseball, Eric Young, has half as many steals as Gordon does.
In fact, Dee Gordon has single-handedly stolen more bases than 17 entire teams. That’s why Gordon has been the No. 1 fantasy second baseman for two solid months now. And a guy that’s 34-for-37 in SB attempts on the year is not just going to stop running.
He will stop running b/c he’s going to stop hitting/getting on base at a career rate. Steamer has him at a .250 avg/.309 obp/and just 23 steals the rest of the way. He will kill your roster with those numbers. You’re paying/ranking him based on a good 2 months and 1 stat category. I don’t agree with that.
Pat, please read the article before commenting next time.
From your comment: “He will stop running b/c he’s going to stop hitting/getting on base at a career rate. Steamer has him at a .250 avg/.309 obp/and just 23 steals the rest of the way.”
From my article: “I’m still no fan of Gordon’s hit tool, but let’s get real here. He stole 21 bases in May, despite hitting just .244/.311/.309.”
He already stopped getting on base at a career rate. And he still stole 21 bases, despite hitting almost exactly what you and Steamer expect from him. Which is the entire point. Who cares if he’s hitting .244 as long as he’s stealing more bases in one month than anyone else in the majors has mustered all year? Furthermore, Steamer only has him playing 60 more games this year, so citing Steamer’s ROS SB total is ludicrous.
If you want to try to make some argument about how he’s going to slip down to .180/.230/.250, then I’d agree, but please read the article (the body of text, not just the list) before commenting next time.
I read it, sorry for overlooking it when rebutting. Stealing that many bases should be enough to make him 10-12 team league relevant, not being among the best 7 2B’s in the league. He’s a guy people should look to sell, IMO.
That also assumes Gordon hasn’t made any gains at all based on just career rate, Gordon hitting .270 with like a .320 OBP isn’t unlikely and at that point he is pretty amazing, and frankly even at .250 is great considering AVG is the least useful cat probably.
Gordon singlehandedly allows you to change your roster construction in multiple ways, wins categories almost weekly so far in H2H with his huge amounts of steals and gives you a very large hedge in SB. And while he isn’t exactly great, he can provide league average runs and probably a decent average. Gordon has been the #1 2B the first two months of the year and his SB potential has always existed, the only 2B I want on my team as much right now is Brian Dozier. (Cano might end up better, but his numbers are worrying so far, he’s more costly and Gordon carrying a single cat so far is arguably better, as long as Gordon has playing time)
Good analysis! I was thinking the same thing about Wong today (dropping Hill for him) but then I noticed that the Cards seem to agree with you…he can’t hit LHP. He has not started against a lefty since he has come back. So…is Wong playing only against RHP > Hill playing against everyone in an OBP league?
Sorry I didn’t get to your question earlier, Tom. That really is a coin flip. Wong and Hill are about equally skilled at drawing walks, so the OBP stipulation doesn’t make much of a difference…this is a total cop-out answer, but do you have room to roster both?
If not, it comes down to your willingness to gamble on youth. As I said, I personally would probably roll the dice on Wong, but I still ranked Hill ahead of him because that is the safer route and would be my general recommendation.
I traded Dustin Pedroia for Yangervis Solarte and Dallas Keuchel. Did I win or lose this trade?
I jumped all over this trade because Solarte has been playing well and Keuchel seems like he is legit despite playing half his games in Houston but now I’m kinda second guessing myself.
Yeah, I don’t think I would’ve done that. You’re simultaneously selling low on Pedroia, while buying high on both Solarte and Keuchel. It’s not a bad trade, just not one I would’ve taken.
That “attempt at self-deprecating humor” was fundamental baseball, man! I mean how can you go wrong with sweet swinging Willie leading off! Seriously though, the M’s aren’t all that great against lefties, Cano was injured and James Jones had a groin issue he was dealing with.
Oh I know, that just happened to be their lineup the day I started working on this piece and I thought it was funny. I know that’s far from their everyday lineup, that’s why I included the caveat “at times.”
Scott, can you talk a little about your ranking of Beckham? The projection systems have him as roughly a .255-.260 hitter with 10ish HR, 4 SB, and poor counting stats. That level of production seems like it belongs in a tier or two lower.