2014 Average Absolute Angle Leaders & Laggards

So we learned that a hitter’s average absolute angle isn’t very stable from year to year, but that doesn’t make it any less interesting to dissect. What is this strange sounding metric you ask? Think of the field broken into equal segments, with center field at 0 and each side of the field a value increasing or decreasing from there. According to the definition at Baseball Heat Maps, -45 is the left field line and 45 is the right field line. Since I don’t care which line the ball is hit toward, I asked for the absolute value of the angle, and then the average of all those batted ball angles. So the higher the number, the more toward the lines the hitter’s batted balls were hit. And obviously since fence distances are closest down the lines, a higher absolute angle should yield more homers. Therefore, it follows that this variable has the highest coefficient in my xHR/FB rate regression equation.

For reference, the unweighted average of the data set was an average absolute angle of 19.7.

So without further ado, here are your average absolute angle leaders:

DJ LeMahieu is probably a surprise at the top of the list and he was only at 19.3 in 2013, so this was quite the jump. Check out his spray chart:

Source: FanGraphs

All five of his homers were pulled to left field, but oddly most of his fly balls went the opposite way. So you can see how this batted ball mix yielded a league leading average absolute angle.

Because of Ryan Braun’s big angle mark, his xHR/FB rate was right in line with historical figures. His distance did drop a bit, but nothing worth panicking over. Don’t be concerned about his career low 13.8% HR/FB rate. If healthy, I think he’s in for a nice rebound.

J.D. Martinez’s power outburst was boosted by his penchant for balls hit closer to the lines. A distance spiked helped as well, so the pair together led to his breakout. Because of a nearly 300 distance mark supported by a change in hitting mechanics, I think his power surge is mostly sustainable.

And now for the laggards:

If a sudden inability to pull the ball is a sign of being done as a hitter, then Alfonso Soriano picked the right time to retire.

Part of Alex Rios‘ power drought could be blamed on his inability to hit it closer to the lines. He never posted big angle marks, but this marked a career low. Moving to Kansas City won’t help his power reappear, but he should certainly rebound at least somewhat.

I don’t know what happened to Ike Davis, but would have liked to see him in a hitter’s park. Improved contact is great, but his power disappeared, and this is some of the reason why.

Blame Mark Trumbo’s HR/FB rate decline on a career low angle. His batted ball distance was just a smidge below his career best mark set in 2013, so he should rebound nicely this year.

Maybe this is the sign we’ve been waiting for that hints at David Ortiz’s impending decline? It has to happen at some point, right?! Pretty amazing that his angle was at a career low since we have data for back to 2008, and yet his HR/FB remained stable.