This weekend I had the opportunity to attend Saber Seminar in Boston. It was a wonderful event full of presentations by some amazing people like members of the Red Sox front office staff, Harry Pavilidis and Dan Brooks, Keith Law, and Fangraphs’ own Dave Cameron and Bill Petti among others. I began writing this within 30 minutes of getting back from the airport last night.

For the purposes of daily fantasy strategy, the most interesting presentation of the weekend was that of SABR president, Vince Gennaro. Vince was lamenting the usage of batter-versus-pitcher (BVP) data by both managers and TV broadcasts. Likewise, I hate it when I see daily contest players rely on that data. Vince noted the small sample size issue with BVP data, but presumably he has also read the portion of The Book that proved BVP data is not predictive.

Vince wants to find a better way to play match ups. I assume he’s coming at it from the angle of finding a better way for managers to play match ups and to make both lineup and in game decisions. But his work is equally applicable to daily fantasy strategy. Vince looks at the following five categories in an attempt to determine the best match ups: Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Sale was far from a polished pitcher by the time he was drafted by the White Sox. Armed with two above-average pitches, some analysts believed he was bound for the bullpen. But in his brief time in the minors, Sale worked on a devastating slider. The pitch was so effective that Sale scrapped what many scouts believed to be his most dominant pitch, his changeup, during his stint in the club’s bullpen. The slider continued to be a dominant force in the rotation during Sale’s 2012 breakout, and has become the pitch most people associate as Sale’s best weapon. The slider may be what Sale is known for, but the changeup has always been his best pitch.

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Ever since the Mets acquired top catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud this offseason from the Blue Jays in exchange for R.A. Dickey, fantasy owners and fans alike have been counting down the days until his arrival. That day finally came on Saturday when incumbent John Buck left the team for a couple of games on paternity leave. The question now is two-fold: does d’Arnaud stay up when Buck returns and become the regular catcher for the rest of the season, and, if so, how will he perform?

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Today’s Roto Riteup aims to make your Monday just a little less deplorable.

On today’s agenda
1. Jenrry Mejia to DL, season likely over
2. A James Paxton update
3. Andrew Lambo back to AAA

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• Deadbeat owners who had left J.J. Putz in their lineups were rewarded with his sixth save of the year and first since April 28th. It’s far from a definitive changing of the guard as the game was a 14-inning affair and current Diamondbacks closer Brad Ziegler tossed two scoreless innings (getting the win) immediately preceding Putz’s appearance. In early July, Eno Sarris gave Putz essentially a clean bill of health upon his return from an elbow injury, citing only a slight decline in fastball velocity as the only red flag. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 52
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor David Wiers. We discuss perhaps the best pitcher on Earth and the debut of a top catching prospect.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 41 min of joyous analysis.

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Sorry for the slightly tardy post, but hopefully most of you can wait until noon or so for your Draftstreet lineups. Sundays are notorious for players (especially catchers) getting “day game after night game” breathers, so you’ll want to double check all your starting lineups just before game time. For fantasy leagues with daily lineup movements, I like to use my streaming spots for a couple util-type hitters on Sundays/Mondays (since I can sub out guys getting the day off on Sunday and those whose teams don’t play on Monday) and then use those slots for pitching streamers the rest of the week. Make sure you are hitting those “games played” maximums!

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After last night’s 14 inning game between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves — where Dan Haren got the save — a mid day nap is certainly in order.

On today’s agenda:
1. Brett Anderson’s uncertain role
2. Will Venable’s hot second half
3.Welcome to the show, Travis d’Arnaud
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Sergio Romo needed just 11 pitches in the home half of the final frame to notch his 30th save of the twenty-thirteen campaign. Romo fanned one — giving the right-hander only three strikeouts in his last seven outings — and induced a couple of pop ups to finish off the Marlins, 6-4. The Giants’ closer continues to rack up saves while limiting free passes (4.4% BB%), but fantasy owners were likely hoping for a few more strikeouts from the 30-year-old this season. His whiff rate (26.2% K%) is down for the second consecutive year — Romo rocked a 40% K% in 48 frames in 2011 followed by a 29.3% K% in just over 55 innings in 2012 — partially because he’s missing fewer bats (13.3% SwStr%) over that same time frame and also the fact that opponents are making better contact on his offerings. Strikeouts or not, Romo continues to get those all important saves for his fantasy owners as we head down the home stretch.
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I don’t have much in the way of a pre-amble today as it’s quite a busy day/week/month right now. Apologies for a non-research blurb here, then, but trust I put in the requisite time on The Daily Five.

I came fifth the other day in a DraftStreet daily pool. I’m still yet to take first in one but I’ve had so many near-misses now that I think I’m done with the “double-up” format. At first, those were my preference because the bar to returns was so low (roughly 40 points), but with so many spots paying out in “winner take all” formats, it’s hard to justify one fifth place finish versus five top-half finishes paying out the same (give or take). I can always just demand Eno pay me more if I run out of DraftStreet cash (note: this will lead to my termination).

You gotta risk it to get the biscuit.
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