After signing the biggest free agent contract in the history of the franchise, B.J. Upton’s start to his Atlanta tenure was obviously lackluster. Posting consecutive months with a wRC+ south of 40 is a bad way to kick off your experiences in a new city, especially a city that has playoff and World Series expectations.
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If there is a flaw in the pricing of hitters on daily fantasy sites, it’s that recent performance seems to be weighted too heavily. Just as an example, Jason Heyward was among the cheaper options for awhile after his slow start, but all the underlying numbers portended that he would rebound. And he has. He’s hitting .296 with four home runs over the last 30 days. If you rode Heyward until his price crept back up, you got some nice value for awhile.
If you can identify other guys with bad traditional numbers but good underlying numbers in the most recent sample, you can find some value plays to ride almost daily until the price catches back up. I like to start by looking back at K% over the last month or so. I’m looking for guys who are showing better plate discipline than they have in recent years but whose production and fantasy value is being depressed by some other factor. Below is a list of the hitters with the biggest improvements in K% over the last 30 days (min. 60 PA) compared to their K% since the beginning of 2012. Read the rest of this entry »
Justin Upton was an early favorite for National League MVP after a scalding April. The 25-year-old seemed to put 2012 behind him, hitting .298/.402/.734 through the season’s first month. It looked like Upton was ready to stick it to the Diamondbacks for giving up on him in the offseason. That all changed in May. Since May 1st, Upton has hit just .224/.339/.311, with three home runs. It’s almost as if Upton has completely forgotten how to hit.
Expected ERA metrics like SIERA, FIP and xFIP are one of the best sabermetric developments we have benefited from in recent years. No longer do we have to eye the various luck rates and attempt to make mental calculations as to how lucky or unlucky a pitcher has been. Expected ERA metrics do the work for you and spit out a number on the same scale as ERA so you could quickly identify those pitchers benefiting from good fortune and those who have not.
Today unofficially marks the halfway point of the 2013 MLB season, so enjoy a Roto Riteup whilst wondering where the time went.
On today’s agenda:
1. Evan Longoria shouldn’t need the DL
2. Ryan Sweeney, Peter Bourjos break bones
3. J.B. Shuck: Plug-n-play
4. Bryce Harper is back today
5. Ryan Braun has bat, can swing
