In each of the past four years, Ben Zobrist has hit 20 home runs or stolen 20 bases, but it is rather doubtful that he reaches either of those marks this season. At age 32, it is reasonable to ask whether Ben Zobrist is starting to hit his decline phase, which is important to consider in dynasty and keeper leagues.
When I was on The Sleeper and the Bust with Mike Podhorzer a few weeks ago, he told me about his process for finding value in daily contests. The basic idea is that he breaks the rest-of-season ZIPS projections down to a fantasy points per game basis and then compares that to cost to find the biggest values. As I’ve learned, that process takes a bit of work, so I’m going to walk you through it.
The first step is to get the rest-of-season ZIPS projections into a spreadsheet. You can find daily updated projections from the ‘Projections’ tab at the top of the site. Then you need to eliminate the stats and columns that are not needed in order to calculate how many fantasy points a player is projected to score for the rest of the year. But don’t delete the games column; you’ll need it later to calculate projected points per game. Read the rest of this entry »
At the end of April, I used Jeff Zimmerman’s updated xBABIP spreadsheet to determine which players’ BABIPs exceeded their xBABIPs by the greatest amount. Of the five players listed in the initial look, all of them did indeed experience a decline in BABIP, nearly all being a significant falloff. Of course, four of the five were sporting .400+ BABIP marks, so of course even without a formula, you would assume regression was coming. We now sit a bit further along than the exact mid-season mark, so BABIPs are much more reasonable at this point. These are the 10 hitters whose BABIP marks exceed their xBABIP marks by the greatest degree.
If you haven’t already, make sure to go listen to yesterday’s The Sleeper and The Bust, which features today’s Roto Riteup author.
On today’s agenda:
1. Dan Haren to return today
2. Is Ian Kennedy back on track?
3. Chris Capuano heads to bullpen
4. David Price dominates
• What is this Adam Jones wizardry? Baltimore’s center fielder took Mariano Rivera deep for a two-run shot in the ninth this afternoon, hanging a “BS” on the future-hall-of-famer’s box score line. The blown save was only his third since the end of 2011. I know there has been some chatter here and there about Rivera not being Rivera-like this year, but I find it tough to make that argument. His K% is down a tick from his career average, but he’s also walking slightly fewer hitters. His 10.9% SwStr% is plenty good enough to keep inducing whiffs and his fastball velocity has actually nudged up a bit in his age 43 season. The only real negative that stands out is a jump in LD% rate (26% in 2013, 17% career average) which may imply hitters are making better contact. Even so, I am not selling Mo high in redraft leagues unless I get a sweet offer.
Episode 34
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Zach Sanders. We discuss projection systems and a pair of soon-to-be DL returnees in the Big Apple.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 40 min of joyous analysis.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Apologies for the lateness of today’s Roto Riteup. The author wishes it were sponsored by a coffee company.
On today’s agenda:
1. A new home for Ricky Nolasco
2. Ryan Howard to the disabled list
3. Logan Morrison is flashing some power
4. Michael Pineda to remain in minors — as a starter
Read the rest of this entry »
Hello Daily Fantasy friends. Not much of a pre-amble for today as I’m writing this late on Saturday night. Sorry about that, but take the recs below and I’ll try to provide some match-up notes beyond the five daily five.
*San Diego at Washington has a high temperature and a major wind blowing out.
*Ditto for Atlanta at Philly and it goes double for any lefties, as the wind is strong out to right.
*Righties in the Pittsburgh at Chicago match-up have a favourable wind out to left.
*110 degrees in Arizona? Even with a wind blowing in, that kind of temperature will play up at Chase Field.
*Monster winds blowing to left for Baltimore at New York with 90-degree temperature to boot.
*Even more monster-ish (is that a word? Probably not) in Kansas City, with a 95-degree temperature and an 18 MPH (!) wind to left.
*Somehow, with heat all over the map, Los Angeles at San Francisco finds itself as a 65-degree game, playing down offenses.
Ahh, Rangers Ballpark. You wonderful, offense-inflating yet confusing masterpiece.
The home of the Texas Rangers has been the subject of some discussion in response to some of my recommendations of late. At times, admittedly unsure of the “best” wind conditions for the park, I have touted players because of a jet stream effect and/or because of a wind blowing out to right field.
It’s been suggested that the jet stream effect is most impactful when the wind blows in from center, causing a stream out to right. To me, this is the same as a wind to right, but I’m nothing close to a meteorologist. Since I couldn’t find an article (in an admittedly quick search) explaining the conditions there, I grabbed some data via the BRef Play Index to try and make heads or tails of the park.
Read the rest of this entry »
Happy birthday to Manny Machado! One can assume that he will have a double layer cake with double frosting. He likes his doubles.
On today’s agenda:
1. Derek Jeter begins his rehab assignment
2. The return of Carl Crawford
3. Tyler Skaggs‘ excellent start
Read the rest of this entry »