For my birthday, I’m giving myself a present.

That present? A good scolding.

Because maybe I’ve made too many excuses for Zack Greinke over the course of his career. Maybe I’ve wishcasted him into a role he doesn’t occupy. Is he really a fantasy ace? What’s going on with him this year? And if the answer to the first is No, then how much do we care about the answer to the second. These are the things I contemplate on the day that I hang up another number next to my name.

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When second baseman Brian Dozier lit up High-A and Double-A with a .320/.399/.491 slash line and 24 stolen bases in 2011, he started to rise up the Minnesota Twins’ organizational depth chart. Baseball America ranked him as the Twins’ 10th-best prospect coming into the 2012 season, and beginning the year in Triple-A, he was largely considered Plan B at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, he was unable to make anything but a negative impact at the big-league level in 2012, only compiling a .265 wOBA in 340 plate appearances and providing below-average defense at short.

This season, however, the Twins transitioned Dozier to second base and have essentially handed him the everyday role at the position. His overall numbers haven’t improved much, but he’s enjoying a torrid stretch at the plate. In fact, he’s performing so well that some fantasy owners have decided to jump on the bandwagon. His ownership is up to 20% in ESPN leagues.

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If you had the patience to stick with Pedro Alvarez or the wherewithal to acquire him during his huge early season slump, you have been amply rewarded for your decision over Alvarez’s last month of play. The question is whether this performance will continue.

I think we can all be in agreement that he will not hit .312 as he has over the past 30 days. He probably also will not lead the league in RBI for the remainder of the year either. However, that does not mean he is a worthwhile candidate to move after his big power month. I would rather hold onto Alvarez and keep the 26-year-old’s power in my lineup as there is a non-zero chance that he ends up leading the NL in home runs.
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Ugh. Four games. Options are obviously limited today. And once you start looking at prices and match ups, the pool of available players shrinks a little more. For example, Cliff Lee will cost you a ridiculous $20,543 today. Paying that price really makes it hard to fill out a lineup full of guys who will actually play today. And Lee’s match up isn’t even that great. The Padres have the 5th best wRC+ against left handed pitching and are only 17th in K% vs. LHP. In fact, there aren’t many good match ups to be found for starters today. Here is a chart showing each probable starter along with the wRC+ and K% for their opponent against pitchers of the same handedness. Read the rest of this entry »

Jarrod Parker wasn’t right early in the season. Through April, Parker had given up 43 hits in 29.1 innings, and carried a bloated 7.336 ERA. There were some analysts who started to wonder if there was something wrong with the 24-year-old. Just before worry could turn into legitimate concern, Parker pulled himself out of his funk. The turning point was a May 17 start against the Royals. Since that start, Parker has a 2.19 ERA over seven starts. That’s hardly a large sample, but it’s enough to put those April fears to rest. Much of Parker’s early struggles came from an inability to locate his fastball. While that issue hasn’t completely gone away, Parker has been able to survive by making a few tweaks to his approach.

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About a month ago, I shared the pitcher expected K% regression equation I came up with that does a great job of estimating what a pitcher’s strikeout percentage should be given the combination of his called, swinging and foul strikes. Since then, I have wanted to do the same for a pitcher’s walk percentage. Unfortunately, there have been many attempts in the past, but with much less success than for a pitcher’s expected strikeout percentage. I believe the highest R-squared attained has been in the low 0.50 range, which isn’t bad, but clearly suggests that there’s a lot more going on that isn’t being accounted for.

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This morning’s Roto Riteup was prepared every so gently.

On today’s agenda:
1. Here comes Kyle Gibson
2. Joe Kelly earns rotation spot
3. Dan Haren hits the DL
4. Tuesday’s recommended viewing

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• Rex Brothers notched save number four this afternoon, closing out a Sunday victory over the Nationals in the District. Brothers has been a pleasant surprise this year, today lowering his already minuscule ERA to 0.28. The 2013 version of Rex isn’t exactly a revelation however; his xFIP (3.64) is actually higher than his 2012 mark (3.43) in large part because his K% has fallen 3% from 28% to 25%. Regression should be expected given a BABIP of only .267 (with half of his games at Coors) as well as a 97% LOB%, which is well above his career 80% mark (already above league average).

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Episode 29
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor David Wiers. We discuss a pair of Mariners and talk American League outfielders. You may also enjoy our examination of two brilliant images, which have been reproduced below for your viewing pleasure.

This is David Wiers’ Skype avatar

This is the Twitter avater created for David Wiers by Colin Wyers

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 41 min of joyous analysis.

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Some teams just match up extraordinarily well against certain-handed pitchers, and it’s high time that we took advantage of that in our daily fantasy games. By now we’re all aware of the platoon advantage, and like to use favorable handedness matchups to ruin our foes and predict which hitters will struggle (or succeed) against either left-handed or right-handed pitching.

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