The Arrested Development countdown is down to a week! If they bring back Maggie or especially Rita for Michael, tears of joy — not to mention laughter — will be shed. If they do bring back Rita then #hotpotato had better become a trending topic.
On today’s agenda:
1. Another setback for Cory Luebke
2. More trouble in the Atlanta Braves bullpen
3. Brandon McCarthy’s gem
4. Make a play for Chris Young
5. Matt Garza to return Tuesday
Read the rest of this entry »
Since 2010, the Atlanta Braves bullpen owns a major league best 2.95 ERA (3.21 FIP) with 1,628 strikeouts. They’ve been worth 19.1 WAR over that same time frame, placing them behind only the Colorado Rockies who’ve accumulated 19.8 WAR. Additionally, Atlanta’s ‘pen saved 152 games since the beginning of ‘10 — third-best in the bigs — as well as earning the league’s fourth-most holds, 276.
Let’s first start with results:
Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)
Week 5: 2-2, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP (Scott Diamond, Nick Tepesch, Andrew Cashner)
Week 6*: 0-2, 16.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 1.62 WHIP (Justin Grimm, Juan Nicasio, Hector Santiago)
—————————————————————–
Total: 8-13, 156 IP, 4.56 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP
Let’s take a peek at some leaderboards. Basically, the pitchers I’ve recommended so far this season are a bizarre combination of Teheran, Stults, and Bartolo Colon.
So there’s that. Read the rest of this entry »
Whatever happened to the power of positive thinking? Obviously it’s a lost art form when you’re talking about a certain percentage of fantasy baseballers. If you recall a Kicking Rocks piece I did during the spring called Draft Characters, you’ll remember the outline I provided of the different types of people you’ll likely face in the war room on Draft Day. The first “person” discussed was the Know-It-All — the guy loaded with information and always willing to endow you with his wisdom. Well, what I didn’t tell you is what happens to this person once the season begins. The best way to describe it is to equate him to a petulant child who just learned the word ‘no.’ No player you like, does he like. No trade that you make, would he make, and heaven forbid you play with him in a league where you vote on trades. The transformation takes place shortly after the start of the season and your league know-it-all sadly becomes The Naysayer. Read the rest of this entry »
If you’re in a league that designates outfielder slots, this isn’t quite true, but in most leagues: outfielders are the pitchers of the lineup. Not that they hit like pitchers — I wouldn’t wish that on anyone — it’s that they are just ‘outfielders’ and it doesn’t matter if they play center or left or right. That simple fact alone means that there will always be more outfielders. While you have to populate ‘second basemen’ and ‘third basemen,’ you’ll always have this one big pool of outfielders, and you just have to get three of them. You could get three plodding old man outfielders, as long as you got your speed on the infield! And the outfield is the last (okay, second-to-last) resort for bats with no glove.
In any case, there’s some offensive talent here. So much we couldn’t even decide who was number one. (I’m personally not worried about Bud Selig and the papers from that clinic, not with the power of the MLBPA, but Mike Trout is too sexy.) I might be worried about Matt Kemp‘s shoulder, and Jason Heyward‘s insides and maybe Giancarlo Stanton’s everything?
But, judging mostly on the color coding, it looks like the outfield has mostly been a profitable enterprise.
Ever since the boss, Mr. Eno Sarris, showed me how to use the VLOOKUP function in Excel, I can’t stop comparing recent numbers to past rates. The function makes it easy to put this season’s numbers in one sheet, past season or career numbers in another sheet, and then pull the past numbers and place them right next to the corresponding season numbers for any sample of players.
Instead of billing a client from 1:15-3:05 yesterday afternoon at work, I toyed around comparing 2012 and career fly ball rates to 2013 numbers. I chose those two because we’re at the point in the year where most qualified hitters have a sample of 80+ balls in play, which is the point at which FB% stabilizes according to Russell Carleton.
The first thing I looked at was whether the hitters with the highest fly ball rates in 2012 had seen a shift so far this season. The idea was that the guys who cut down on the fly balls would see a corresponding rise in average given that fly balls go for hits somewhere in the neighborhood of 13%-15% of the time, while ground balls are hits roughly 25% of the time and line drives about 71-73% of the time. Read the rest of this entry »
Among qualified starters, right-hander Anibal Sanchez has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball. His 1.45 FIP leads Major League Baseball, and if you’re one who favors SIERA over FIP, his 2.50 SIERA still ranks third. It’s the type of pitcher the Tigers hoped he could become when they inked him to a five-year, $88M contract over the winter.
Sanchez’s rate statistics have been beautiful this season, but perhaps the biggest story for fantasy owners is the significant uptick in strikeouts. His 31.3% strikeout percentage is by far the best of his career. Prior to 2013, his career-high K% was 24.3% in 2011. The massive jump has left many owners wondering if it’s sustainable.
Earlier this month, I looked into the case of a talented-but-often-frustrating American League lefty first baseman who had finally begun to produce consistently. That was James Loney, whom I tossed aside — perhaps unfairly, but I won’t pretend I’m not a Dodger fan who had to watch him struggle for years — as a one-tool player for fantasy purposes.
Today, we’ll look into a similar player, but one whom I like quite a bit more: Texas’ Mitch Moreland. Despite being one of the most-added players in fantasy over the last week — six homers and three more extra-base hits in nine games will do that for you — Moreland remains available in at least 40% of leagues at all of the three main sites. Read the rest of this entry »
For no particular reason, this particular (somewhat older) SNL skit (not exactly NSFW, but use good judgment) popped into the present author’s mind. May the reader find it equally enjoyable.
On today’s agenda:
1. Make a play for Jon Jay
2. Various players to the 15-day disabled list
3. Dellin Betances gets the call
4. Thoughts on Francisco Liriano
Read the rest of this entry »
Bobby Parnell secured his fourth save of the year as the Mets clipped the Cardinals 4-3 in Saint Louis. Parnell surrendered just one hit — a single to Matt Adams — in the bottom of the ninth frame, and struck out one to seal the victory for the Metropolitans. Parnell is now 4-of-6 on the season in save opportunities with a 1.04 ERA (1.86 FIP) and a 0.73 WHIP. However, owners should monitor his K% — which is up to 26% this season from 21% in ‘12 — despite missing fewer bats (8.4% SwStr% in ‘13, down from 10.1% in ‘12). The foreseeable future seems to favor those with shares of Parnell, considering the (unfortunate) news that Frank Francisco felt soreness in his surgically repaired elbow just as he was meant to return from the disabled list.