As we continue our leisurely stroll through the depth charts, we find ourselves in Tampa Bay where the Rays outfield is looking awfully similar to the 2012 version. Same names, same faces, but with one minor exception. Whether it’s May or June or even after the All Star Break, the Rays will likely make a change that should provide them with a substantial power boost. The wait could finally be over. He’ll be here soon. Read the rest of this entry »
Millions of people play fantasy baseball each year. It follows that hundreds of thousands of these folk win their fantasy league championships. And while this is an impressive feat, to be sure, it is hardly a unique one. We congratulate the winner, give him or her a trophy to put in his living room, and next year the slate is wiped clean. We each want something more: we want our foes to look upon our works and despair.
What follows is a strategy guide, but it is not a strategy guide. It does not pretend to maximize your chances of winning; in fact, it does quite the opposite. But what Plan Z sacrifices in terms of probability it more than repays in terms of potential payoff. Because when you play fantasy baseball the normal way, you win for a year. When you play by Plan Z, you win for a lifetime. Stories will become legends, which will in turn fade into myth. You’ll be a baseball Beowulf.
The rules of Plan Z are deceptively simple. They are, in order:
1. Only draft players whose names contain a Z.
That’s it.
It’s time for the second annual Top 100 Fantasy Rookies, a list of 100 prospects who should make an impact on the 2013 fantasy baseball season. Just how much impact? In some cases, a lot; but in others, it may be minimal — or even negligible. That’s the inherent risk in predicting and projecting not only prospects’ development curves but also how these players possibly fit into their big league teams’ plans during the upcoming season.
That’s why, much like with my Mining the Minors columns, I’ve incorporated both talent and opportunity into each prospect’s ranking. Sometimes, a player’s talent is so elite that it’s worth bumping him up the rankings even if his path to playing time isn’t all that clear (think: Mike Trout last year). But there are also plenty of players in these rankings who skew toward the opportunity side of the spectrum, because they’re (nearly) ready to be in the majors on Opening Day (read: David Phelps, 2012). Trying to weigh and balance these two aspects — talent and opportunity — is what makes a list like this so challenging. And so fluid. Which is to say, my mind could change on any of the players on the list between today and tomorrow. Or even today and later today.
Here’s the first batch, from Christian Yelich to Justin De Fratus.
Heading into 2012 the Atlanta Braves were considered by many to have some of the best depth in their rotation. Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson were the veterans atop the staff, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy were the young guns ready for the rotation, and Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado were highly thought of prospects. But the rotation looks quite a bit different heading into 2013. Hanson and Delgado are gone. Beachy is out until the summer with an injury. Minor had an up and down year, and Teheran had an ERA over 5.00 in 26 starts at AAA.
But things are not as bad as that last paragraph would make them seem. Read the rest of this entry »
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Reserve
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Jordany Valdespin | ||
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For a team that’s in a highly transitional period like the Mets, their infield situation is surprisingly set. Unlike their complete mess of an outfield, starters at all five infield positions are pretty easy to nail down.
But just because we know who is starting on Opening Day hardly means that it will be the same player throughout the season, and nowhere is that more apparent than at catcher. John Buck is clearly nothing more than a placeholder for top prospect Travis D’Arnaud, and if Buck is still starting for this team past July then something has gone horrible, miserably wrong. Since it’s the Mets, that’s always possible, and Buck should get the majority of the playing time for at least the first few weeks of the season. You know what he is by now, and that’s a one-category player who will provide his fair share of power while killing you absolutely everywhere else. Behind him, Anthony Recker is just a Quad-A type who merits no fantasy consideration whatsoever. Read the rest of this entry »
While Wiers and a majority of my FanGraphs counterparts are off canoodling in Arizona, I’m here at home base bringing you the first weekend edition of the 2013 Roto Riteup. (Yes, Friday counts as a weekend in internet land.)
On today’s agenda:
1. Aroldis Chapman’s role
2. Kyle Gibson heads to the minors
3. Jason Bay’s potential new role
4. Luke Hochevar heads to the bullpen
5. Selected projections
Colorado isn’t synonymous with good pitching and while their rotation could certainly use some help, the bullpen ain’t too shabby.
The “Big Three” in the rotation will enter what could be their final season together for the Philadelphia Phillies. Both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have signed long-term deals, but Roy Halladay enters 2013 in the final year of his contract. The club holds a $20 million option on Halladay in 2014, but for the first time in his career, he’s not a sure thing to earn that payday. Halladay struggled through injuries and decreased fastball velocity en route to his worst season since 2000. For the first time in his career, Halladay is a major question mark. A resurgent year would push the Phillies to sleeper status, but if Halladay is in his decline phase, the club’s rotation looks drops off significantly after two starters.
The Phillies bullpen is a healthy blend of veteran and younger arms that improved greatly this offseason with the addition of veteran Mike Adams. The backend of Bastardo, Papelbon and the aforementioned Adams should provide fantasy owners fine production in 2013 — especially those in holds+saves leagues.
The Closer:
Papelbon is the model of consistency at arguably the most inconsistent position in baseball. The Phillies’ right-hander took the hill a minimum of 59 games and saved at least 31 in each of the last six seasons between Boston and Philadelphia. Papelbon doesn’t exactly post Kimbrelian type strikeout numbers — but a 32.0 K% in ‘12 and a career 29.9% K% is nothing to be ashamed of. It does appear that Pap lost a tick on each of his three offerings, so one may want to keep an eye on that. But if you’re the type of fantasy owner that believes in paying for saves — but not as much as it would cost to snag Craig Kimbrel — then Papelbon is your guy.
The Setup Guys:
My how times have changed. Four seasons ago the Yankees rode one of the best infields in baseball history — combined 23.5 WAR out of their starting catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, and third baseman — to the World Championship, but when 2013 opens they will have one bonafide superstar, one major question mark, and three guys either hurt or coming off injury on the infield. You have to see it to believe how ugly it is:
| C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | |
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| Starter | Chris Stewart | Mark Teixeira | Robinson Cano | Derek Jeter | Alex Rodriguez |
| Backup | Francisco Cervelli | Dan Johnson | Jayson Nix | Eduardo Nunez | Kevin Youkilis |
| Depth | Austin Romine | Corban Joseph | David Adams |