Before you go thinking this is just another mock draft column, read the next sentence — your mouse will practically click “more” by itself.

At a time when every fantasy owner and their sister is prepping for the upcoming season by doing mock draft after mock auction…what if we threw a curveball at that concept by selecting only prospects for a mock dynasty league?

That, friends, is what the fine folks over at Fake Teams came up with, and they so graciously asked FanGraphers Mike Newman, J.D. Sussman and me to participate as part of a panel of a baker’s dozen’s worth of prospect pundits. What comes next are the results.

But that’s not all! To help keeper and dynasty league owners everywhere who get to partake in the always-exhilarating, often-painstaking process of drafting prospects, I’ll present my approach and strategy to this enlightening exercise — which when you think about it, was really just a make-believe draft of non-major leaguers for this made-up fantasy game we all love to play.

Yeah, like you’re not gonna click.

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Not to long ago Jason Catania, Mike Newman and I took part in Fake Teams’ Expert Mock Prospect Draft. The rules contemplated a thirteen team league using the traditional 5×5 statistics. I followed my strategy, detailed below, and wouldn’t change a single pick. Read the rest of this entry »

The Seattle Mariners came into the 2012 season with plenty of hype surrounding their young hitters. Dustin Ackley was poised to improve on his .337 wOBA as a rookie in 2011, and Jesus Montero was considered a can’t-miss bat who was going to try and play catcher. Kyle Seager also took over third base on a full-time basis, and Justin Smoak was finally going to realize his potential at the plate.

Many fantasy owners jumped on the bandwagon, but the wagon seemingly broke down early in the season and was unable to recover. As a team, the Mariners compiled a league-worst .291 wOBA and scored the least amount of runs in the American League with 619. In fact, the next-closest American League team in runs was the Cleveland Indians, who outscored the Mariners by 48 runs on the season.

That’s not to say owners were foolish for jumping on the bandwagon. Many promising, young position players struggle to make the transition to the big leagues, and one lousy season does not define a young player’s development. Not to mention, in Ackley’s case, he not only had to deal with opposing teams having ample time and video to adjust to his various strengths and weaknesses, but he also added a painful bone spur in his left ankle to the equation.

The depth chart is murky, though, because the Mariners have several infield prospects rising up the system who enjoyed significant success last season. There are no blatant playing-time battles this spring, but if anyone spins their wheels coming out of the gate once again, the organization could look to explore other young, internal options.

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It’s hard to say that there’s a lot of drama in Angels camp this spring. There’s little doubt about the starting nine, and even the five rotation spots seem pretty secure unless injury issues flare up, most likely with Joe Blanton or Tommy Hanson.

So while Mike Scioscia can focus mainly on getting his team ready for the season without having to make a lot of roster choices — unless they’re the surprise landing spot for Kyle Lohse — the one area that does seem to have some uncertainty is in the bullpen, particularly the ninth inning. The original plan was that Ryan Madson would come to town to be the team’s closer, despite missing all of 2012 before ever throwing a pitch for Cincinnati. Despite the injury, there was merit to the idea; Madson was an effective if under-appreciated arm for years in Philadelphia before putting up 32 saves in 2011 when Brad Lidge finally melted down. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners bullpen packs quite the punch, with four guys at the back end who have the potential to strike out nearly one-third of the batters they face. Unfortunately for Seattle, there might not be as many holds or saves available to these guys as they would like, but for owners looking for rates there is plenty of fantasy relief upside tucked away in the Pacific northwest.

The closer:
Tom Wilhelmsen

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Russell Carleton wrote a good article on what traits are common for injured pitchers. The leading cause to no surprise was past injuries.

Recent injury data

• Dustin Ackley had off season surgery to remove some bone spurs which were bothering him. The injury could have been part of the cause of his struggles last season. Marcels projected him to produce .276/.349/.427 in 2012 while he only hit .226/.294/.328. If the bone spurs were really bothering him, he looks to be a player to out perform his 2013 projections.

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The Rangers gambled on Joe Nathan last season and won big. Nathan recovered from his worst season as a reliever, improving nearly all of his metrics, and finishing the year with a 2.78 FIP and 37 saves. The team took a similar approach this offseason, picking up former closer Joakim Soria and Toronto Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor. Both players have been effective late-inning options during their career, but concerns about their usefulness kept their price down. Soria didn’t pitch at all last season after recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, while Frasor will have to contend with age-related decline as he enters his age-35 season. Those veterans will join a young, yet, otherwise promising bullpen in Texas.

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Last season, the Houston Astros’ outfield proved absolutely inept offensively. They compiled a league-worst .287 wOBA and combined for a paltry .221/.296/.351 slash line. That led to the departure of Jordan Schafer and Brian Bogusevic this winter. It has also set the stage for a crowded outfield competition this spring in Kissimmee, Florida.

No outfield position has been carved into stone. J.D. Martinez reportedly has the inside track in left field, despite struggling with a -0.2 WAR and .303 wOBA in 439 plate appearances last year. GM Jeff Luhnow, however, recently said that Chris Carter and Rule-5 draftee Nate Freiman could also see some time in left field to provide more thump to an offense that projects to lack significant home run power.

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Considering I just covered the A’s infield earlier this month when the team acquired infielder Jed Lowrie in exchange for Brad Peacock and Chris Carter, this one will actually be short and sweet. There hasn’t been any change in the two weeks since that last article was published. What I did do was a little more studying of the team and consulted with those who follow the A’s much more closely than I do and whose opinions I trust and respect. Read the rest of this entry »

Red Sox outfield prospect Bryce Brentz made headlines recently when he accidentally shot himself in the leg while cleaning a gun. The injury wasn’t severe and he’s already returning to practice, but who knew cleaning a handgun could be as dangerous as standing in front of Robin Yount? Thankfully for dynasty owners “firearm handling” is not a category in most fantasy leagues. So what can Brentz do for your fantasy team?

The Breakdown

I was able to see Brentz a few times during the 2012 season. Defensively he is a prototypical corner outfielder and his strong arm makes right field a nice, cozy fit. The athleticism doesn’t stand out but he’s not a bad runner. The speed plays better in the outfield than it does on the base paths and his stolen base totals will likely be in the low single digits each season. As he ages his thick build does have the potential to become more of an issue and slow him down to some degree. I still expect Brentz is going to qualify in the outfield until he’s well into his 30’s.

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