Archive for January, 2013

2013 Pod Projections: Brett Lawrie

Tying for the second most number of votes for a full Pod Projection was Blue Jays third sacker Brett Lawrie. After sky high expectations resulting from an exciting debut that mixed power and speed, the sophomore seriously disappointed in his full season follow-up. Lawrie missed a month of action due to an oblique injury and missed time here and there due to various other nicks and bruises. You have to wonder how healthy he was all season and if those issues affected his performance. This is just another example of why projecting player performance is so difficult. We have to speculate about injuries and their effects and we may never know if we were correct.

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Rotographs Mock Draft: The Rest of the Relievers

After making my disdain for drafting relievers early well-known in last week’s breakdown of Round 1-15 relievers from RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock (all rounds linked here), it’s time to move on to the “best of the rest.” This is where I personally think relievers are ripe for selection — you’re late enough in the draft that you aren’t queasy about passing up top-10-round talent to snag a guy who is a few bad outings away from being “fantasy useless,” but you still have thirty big league teams to sort through in search of that mythical arbitrary construct known as “the save.”

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A Draft In Review

Edit: The entire draft can be found in this Google document set up for your viewing pleasure.

The RotoGraphs crew has already finished one (slow) mock draft, and while there has been plenty of position and round based evaluation, what follows is a team evaluation. I’ll be the first to admit my mistakes and I’m not too proud to laugh at them either.

My final team is as follows, displayed in standard ESPN format. While normally 25 man rosters is the norm, I’ll have two empty BN spots. I would have filled those spots with two relievers. Read the rest of this entry »


My RotoGraphs Mock Team — Slow Draft Style

And six weeks later, a team was born…

That’s right. After just six short weeks and hundreds of emails, we finally finished the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Slow Draft Style. The process was definitely cumbersome, to say the least, but we all made it through relatively unscathed. Our fearless leader and draft overseer, Eno Sarris, published the results five rounds at a time (the links to all can be found in this post) and now it’s time to reveal our teams. Well, I don’t know if everyone is going to do it, but here’s mine: Read the rest of this entry »


Martin Prado’s Consistency and Flexibility Make Him Undervalued

Being eligible at multiple positions always raises a player’s appeal. Being able to move a guy from first base or outfield, and second or short for instance are common and valuable. Martin Prado has taken the role of Chone Figgins of a half decade ago, being eligible across almost every position while also being an above average fantasy player to boot.

While Prado does not wow at any one specific roto category, he is rather consistent and added a whole new dimension to his game last year with his legs. The concept of consistency will be challenged by those that point out his injury-riddled 2011 campaign, but the season is a clear statistical outlier when you notice his batting averages of .320, .307, .307, and .301 in all other seasons with more than 200 plate appearances. He has also added four straight seasons of double digit home runs, despite hitting just 10 last season.

Prado has also straightened out his walk-to-strikeout ratio to a near even rate, which should allow him to get on base at high rates at the top of an offense that is expected to perform at a high level. In Prado, you are looking at a player that should be able to produce double digit home runs, double digit steals, a .300 average, a lot of runs, and a respectable amount of RBI for a top of the order hitter. Being able to contribute at least somewhat in all five categories while also being eligible at outfield, third base, shortstop, and second base (depending on the league, he played 10 games at each of the positions) makes Prado an extremely undervalued fantasy option. Three of those four positions are rather scarce, and he is good enough to be a player who won’t hurt your team’s production if you have to play him in the outfield either.

The one question will be whether speed remains a big part of his game. He set career highs in steals with 17 and triples with six, but has never been a player noted for his swift feet prior to last season. In fact, stealing bases was something he really struggled at before last year, as he posted as many seasons with more stolen bases than times caught as the inverse. But when following Prado throughout his career, it is clear that he is the type of player who focuses on getting better at certain aspects of the sport. Last year, becoming a better defender and taking advantage of extra bases were clearly his focuses. As a player who consistently learns and becomes a quality defender at new positions, it should not come of that much of a surprise that he would look to and succeed at improving at other aspects of his game. Maybe he steals a few fewer bases and gets caught a few more times, but I would be surprised with fewer than 10 stolen bases. That is not enough to make him a “speed demon,” but coupled with the rest of his game being respectable, he certainly will be able to add value to teams on a daily basis. Consistency and flexibility are two important aspects of the fantasy world, and you know what you will get with Martin Prado on an annual basis and you can essentially use him as the Braves do, wherever he is needed most.


Musings on the Ridiculously Early Mock

If you’ve been following the site over the past few weeks, you’ll know that the RotoGraphs team got together and held a “ridiculously early mock draft.” Our fearless leader, Eno Sarris, published the results of the full 23 round draft each week (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-23). This was the first time I had ever done a draft without the benefit of a fantasy rankings guide or a custom list of rankings, so it was a brand new experience for me. I’ve compiled some of my thoughts below, in hopes that they might create discussion among the commenters, or just bring about some debates.

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The Mess at the Philly Outfield Corners

Yesterday, the Phillies signed free agent outfielder Delmon Young to a contract usually reserved for pinch hitters and bench warmers. Most assumed that Young would play left field where he has played since 2008 when not in the DH slot. And since he sports a career .309 wOBA versus right-handers, compared to a .352 wOBA against southpaws, the second assumption was that he would be on the bad side of a platoon. Our own Dave Cameron’s crystal ball was working perfectly, however, and his analysis actually assumed that Young would be taking at-bats away from Domonic Brown, who was slated to be the starting right fielder. Later, this different assumption was confirmed, as it was reported that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said that Young would play right field. So let’s try to figure out what the implications are of this mess.

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Rotographs Mock Draft NL SP Results: Final Rounds

The ridiculously long Rotographs staff mock draft has finally concluded. As usual, the first mock of the season featured some interesting choices, some great values, and plenty of lessons. Here’s the last set of National League starting pitchers – the first two break downs can be found here: rounds 1-10 and rounds 11-15 – complete with a lot of players who will be on sleeper lists in the coming weeks. Read the rest of this entry »


David Murphy: Undrafted

David Murphy hit over .300 with double-digit power and steals last season. He’s in line for more playing time with Josh Hamilton gone. He just turned 31, so age is only a slight concern.

But David Murphy wasn’t drafted in the RotoGraphs Mock Draft. Maybe he should have been.

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Which Ichiro Will Show Up In 2013?

For the better part of a decade, Ichiro Suzuki was one of the top outfielders in fantasy baseball despite his lack of power thanks to elite batting average and stolen base numbers. His days as an elite player seemed to come to an end two seasons ago, when he hit a meager .272 while also managing 40 steals. Last season he hit just .261 with 15 steals in 95 games with the Mariners before what was previously thought to be unthinkable happened — Ichiro was traded.

After the move to the Yankees, the now 39-year-old Ichiro hit a robust .322 with 14 steals in just 67 games. His five homers with New York — all at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium — matched his total in 2011 and were one more than his half-season in Seattle in 2012. Whether it be small sample size or the rejuvenating atmosphere of a pennant race, Ichiro started hitting like guy he was 2001-2010 as soon as he put on the pinstripes. Unfortunately that only created more uncertainty about him as a fantasy option for 2013.

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