Even with all that we know about ERA and how questionable it can be in evaluating the value of a pitcher, a 4.98 mark is still pretty ugly, especially in the lowered offensive environment we’re seeing this year. In fact, it’s so ugly that it ranks among the bottom 10% or so of all qualified major league pitchers, mostly above struggling youngsters like Jake Arrieta, Luke Hochevar, Hector Noesi, & Mike Minor, along with whatever it is that’s ruining Tim Lincecum’s career. It’s not a great group to be in, but for Detroit starter Max Scherzer, that 4.98 stands out as a phenomenal reason to target him as the trade deadline nears.

If you look at that list of poor ERA starters, two things immediately stand out about Scherzer. First, his FIP is a much more reasonable 3.76, one of the highest ERA-FIP differentials in the game; second, his K/9 rate is an outstanding 11.36. Other than Stephen Strasburg’s 11.81, no other starting pitcher in baseball has a higher mark, and I’m guessing you could win a lot of bar bets by knowing that the highest K rate in the American League belongs to Scherzer, not Felix Hernandez or Yu Darvish or Justin Verlander.

Of course, you don’t get to such a high ERA by accident, and in Scherzer’s case, there’s some pretty obvious reasons behind that. You can point to his 1.39/9 homer rate, high even for a pitcher who doesn’t have the built-in advantage of Comerica Park, and his .359 BABIP, far above his career mark of .318. The BABIP gap may be a little tough to fully overcome, given the atrocious defense the Tigers roll out behind him on a nightly basis, but everything else is trending in the right direction. Read the rest of this entry »

The hope for today’s Roto Riteup was to link to a funny clip from the movie Friday. Unfortunately, I had forgotten how very graphic that movie’s language can get. Alas, I have no hilarious link for you to wake up to. Just baseball.

• Shortstops and Middle Infield help is something that I’m always on the prowl for. Consequently, I keep close tabs on most MI eligible players. Over the past week, Ruben Tejada has a .480/.519/.560 line. The man is so hot that his flames are on fire. He doesn’t offer much (read: any whatsoever) home run power, but while he is hitting like that, the lack of power is fine. With a seasonal .405 BABIP, I don’t expect this kind of line to keep up, but he is absolutely worth rostering in the short term. I’ve picked him up as a stream candidate in a couple deep leagues. If you’re in a 12-team mixed, I’d do the same. Maybe even 10-team mixed. His Yahoo! ownership rate is down at 10% and his ESPN rate is even worst at 6%.
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• Minnesota Twins’ closer, Matt Capps, is scheduled to toss his first bullpen session this weekend since hitting the disabled list on June 24th with inflammation in his right shoulder. If Capps feels well after the bullpen session, he will head to Class-A Fort Myers to pitch an inning of rehab with the hopes of returning to the Twins at the conclusion of the All-Star Break.
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Tyler Colvin (ESPN: 7.6 percent owned; Yahoo!: 10 percent owned)

When the Rockies sent Ian Stewart to the Cubs for Tyler Colvin in one of those “my broken toy for your cracked mirror” deals, it looked as though it would end like almost all change-of-scenery deals does, namely, the issues that lead the players to be traded for one another had little to do with the scenery. If one of the players in that deal was going to actually get things to click, I would have guessed it was Stewart, who looked like a man in need of a home without the expectations that had gained him the “bust” tag in Colorado. Instead, Stewart is likely to miss the rest of the season after undergoing wrist surgery. While the Cubs surely would have liked a full season to see if the former top-10 pick could be refurbished, I can’t imagine there’s much dispute about what Stewart offers following 202 PAs that amounted to a .201/.292/.335 line and generally replacement level play. Read the rest of this entry »

With Independence Day in the rear-view mirror and all but two teams (Royals and Nationals) having played their 81st game, it’s time for a midseason update to our first base rankings. Due to popular demand, the catchers (Buster Posey, Mike Napoli, Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana) have been left out of the rankings, ditto the middle infielders (Michael Young and Howie Kendrick). Here are the preseason, May, and June tiers for reference.

Tier One
Joey Votto
Miguel Cabrera
Paul Konerko
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder

Votto is clearly the better hitter in baseball and at least in the conversation for the best all-around player in the game. Konerko has slowed down a bit since his “minor” wrist procedure but not enough to derail his season or dampened his expected fantasy production. The other three are pretty self-explanatory.

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Jose Reyes was drafted as a three category juggernaut in a prime position. Owners expected him to be near the top of the league in steals, average, and runs as he will hit atop a lineup that was expected to be very formidable. Things have not quite gone as planned, despite having an extremely healthy first half.

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One infielder, one catcher, one pitcher. What more could you want, really?

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Wow. Scour that waiver wire and it’s slim pickins out there, for sure. Trying to find some legitimate help can be a daunting task, especially if you’re looking to pick someone up for an extended period of time. So you’ve got to find the door where opportunity is knocking the loudest. Here are two guys who may not actually be Mr. Right, but can at least be Mr. Right-Now. Read the rest of this entry »

I penned this Roto Riteup prior to yesterday’s fireworks. America!

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Adam Wainwright’s last start was a match up with an historically bad offense and it was such a no brainer that he was my starting pitcher pick in “The Game” here on Fangraphs. Seven runs and 11 hits over five innings pitched versus the Pittsburgh Pirates later, I felt rather duped. And yet, I’m still bullish on Adam Wainwright.

Here’s what I know. Between 2007 and 2008, Adam Wainwright was a very good starting pitcher. Between 2009 and 2010, he was great. You wanted Adam Wainwright on your fantasy team, and you wanted him badly. I just know it.

And then we know about elbow surgery.

But despite it being a particularly damning diagnosis in the short term, Tommy John surgery isn’t quite as terrifying as it used to be since we’ve seen so many pitchers return to have successful post-surgery careers. Often times, we see pitchers simply scraping off the rust after spending the better part of a year recovering and rehabbing and not throwing baseballs. But their skills often return.

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