The waiver wire for available players on the DL is getting thin right now. Most teams are shutting down players that could possibly come off the DL for the last couple weeks of the season. Here is a look at a few players owned in less than 50% of all leagues.

Justin Morneau (45.1% ESPN) – Justin is in AAA rehabbing for the next week. After that assignment, he should be getting a call back to the majors. There is no reason not to own him in any league.

Jose Tabata (20.2%) and Alex Presley (4.2%) – Both of these two Pirates look to be coming off the DL in the next week or so. They will replace Xavier Paul in the Pirates outfield, but how they will split up their playing time is still unknown. They will probably be platooned with Presley (LHH) to face RHP and Tabata (RHH) to face LHP. They both look to be a decent source of SB (Tabata 14 SB in 257 AB and Presley with 4 SB in 81 AB). Also, Presley has hit for 0.333 in his few plate appearances this season.

Jed Lowrie (11.9%) – Lowrie joins the Red Sox tonight (Monday). The key to his return is how Marco Scutaro and him will split playing time at SS. Terry Francona has stated that the two will split time depending on match ups. Lowrie has multiple position eligibilities, but it may not matter if he doesn’t get much playing time.

Jordan Schafer (1.0%) – Once he gets off the DL in about a week, he will be the everyday center fielder for the Astros. For an owner in need of steals (15 SB in 196 AB), he is a viable option, especially in deep or NL only leagues.

Stephen Strasburg (12.3 %) – Pick him up now if available. He looks like he is going to pitch a few MLB games. With other pitchers possibly being shut down at the end of season, he could be valuable for an owner in the playoffs or one making a final push up in the standings.

Adam Wainwright (1.7%) – He is not going to pitch this season, but for keeper leagues he should be added for next year. He has several uses during the off season even if an owner doesn’t plan on actually using him for a keeper. He could be added to a trade to sweeten the pot. Also, depending on the league rules, he could be held right until the keepers are selected as insurance in case one of the other keepers gets injured.

Ross Ohlendorf (0.0%) – The waiver wire for starting pitchers returning this season is slim. Ohlendorf is set to pitch later this week for the Pirates. If you are in need of SP, I would pick him up, hold him on the DL for a game or two to see how he performs and then possibly move him to your roster or drop him.

With the unfortunate knee injury to Daniel Murphy, starting roles are in flux in New York. Ike Davis has also admitted recently that he’ll out of commission all year most likely. There’s playing time to be had.

Lucas Duda (3% owned in Yahoo)
We last profiled el Duderino at the end of June, so it’s time for an update. There are still plenty of reasons to be excited about Duda, even if his overall .262/.329/.436 line is underwhelming for a corner outfielder slash first baseman. First, there’s obviously power upside remaining. Duda ISO’ed .295 at Triple-A in 2010 and 2011 (455 PAs combined), and managed a .214 ISO in his debut (92 PAs). He hits more fly balls than ground balls, and he looks like an ox. For some reason, he’s only managing a 5.9% HR/FB number right now, but that’s not statistically reliable yet. Power is tied into his batting average, and if he can inch that power forward, he could beat his ZiPs RoS projections (.246/.324/.421) because the rest of the batting average package (other than speed) is there. He doesn’t strike out much (7.5% swinging strike rate is below average, and so is his 14.1% strikeout percentage). He’s hitting gobs of line drives (23.3%, average is 19%). He’s not an extreme fly ball hitter (0.94 GB/FB). Throw those batted ball numbers into an xBABIP calculator, and you get .328 (not his current .286). So it’s on the power: if he shows a little more of it, he could be a .275/.340/.480 guy for the next two months, which does work in most leagues.

Scott Hairston (0% owned in Yahoo)
Though he does represent an upgrade over Met bench pieces of the past, Hairston is most likely only a bench part. As much as we try to avoid using platoon splits too often here, the Chin owns a sizeable split that has affected his usage. In over 700 PAs against left-handers, Hairston is a useful .278/.331/.492 player. Against over 1200 PAs against same-handed players? The 31-year-old is batting .228/.289/.411. He still shows power, which is the best part of his game, but there seems to be something going on there. If you can put him on your deep league bench and slot him in against southpaws, you’ll come out ahead.

Nick Evans (0% owned)
If Lucas Duda is really the starting first baseman, and Scott Hairston is best used against right-handers, perhaps the 25-year-old Evans will draw the starts against right-handers. Unfortunately the player nicknamed ‘Who’ by Met faithful is also right-handed and hasn’t distinguished himself as a bona fide major league regular so far. Well, it would be unfair to judge him on his 266 major league PAs. But his minor league PAs haven’t been so amazing for a player older than his competition performing near his peak. His walk rates have been at average or worse, his strikeout rates around average, and last year he had a .149 ISO in Triple-A. It’s true that he’s had better years in the past, and it’s possible he could be useful in the deepest of leagues. But Evans didn’t once have a year as nice as Duda’s last two years in the same parks.

Let’s look at a pair of one-time fantasy stalwarts that have fallen by the wayside in recent years…

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Don’t look now, but the San Diego Padres might actually have a useful fantasy hitter. Over the past 30 days, Guzman has hit .343/.384/.600 while receiving regular playing time in the Padres’ lineup. He’s slugging five home runs and stolen three bases in that period as well. While his performance has been impressive, Guzman plays first base — where the level of offense is extremely high. Guzman is riding a hot streak at the moment, however, and could be a useful pickup down the stretch.
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Thanks to TBS’ Sunday MLB coverage, I had the chance to watch a couple innings of Mike Minor’s start yesterday against the Mets. Here are some observations I made note of during the game: Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Danks, Wakefield, Reyes, LeBlanc.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Floyd, Humber, Britton.

Let’s take a look at Jo-Jo Reyes. The California native was a second-round pick of the Braves in 2003. He had some very strong seasons in the minor in the Atlanta organization and he seemed destined to be the next impact hurler for the club. But in 41 games for the Braves, he was 5-15 with a 6.40 ERA.

Sometimes a change of scenery is what the doctor calls for in these situations and the Braves included him in the Yunel Escobar deal last year. But nobody expects a struggling pitcher to put things together pitching in the AL East. This year with the Blue Jays, Reyes was 5-8 with a 5.40 ERA in 20 starts before he was waived.

The Orioles picked him up, which is a classic good news-bad news deal. On the plus side, Reyes gets to continue his pitching in the majors. On the flip side, he’s still competing in the AL East. Reyes’ first appearance for Baltimore came in a relief role but he moves back into the rotation to replace Zach Britton, who suffered a shoulder strain.

In 121 games in the minors, Reyes recorded an 8.3 SO/9 ratio. But in the majors that mark falls to 5.7 SO/9. And when you combine that with a 3.9 BB/9, it’s easy to see why Reyes has struggled so much in his time in the big leagues.

Reyes throws hard and he is primarily a fastball pitcher. The problem is that he is just not overpowering with the pitch and his secondary offerings are not enough to make up for that fact. He also throws a slider and a change. This year the slider has been a decent pitch for Reyes, but he only throws it 11.3% of the time.

He gets some swings outside of the zone (31.0 O-Swing%) but batters have a 76.9 O-Contact%, which would be one of the worst marks if he had enough innings to qualify. Furthermore, Reyes has just a 6.7 SwStr% this season, which matches his career average.

In his career, Reyes has done okay against LHB, with a lifetime .742 OPS allowed to lefties. Perhaps he can carve out a role as a LOOGY. But at this point, there’s little reason for optimism about Reyes turning into an effective starting pitcher.

Time to re-visit those monthly rankings, again.  As always, the criteria used for these is as follows:

1.  Current performance level
2.  Expected performance for rest of season
3.  Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)

One note, despite the fact that it is late in the season, we are not accounting for keeper value right now.  We are staying within the parameters of this season alone.  Injured players remain on the list at the bottom so we can just see who was up there from start to finish.  That being said, here’s how the catching position looks right now…. Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline inevitably impacted the holds rankings, though not as much as you’d think. The elite guys are still elite, but some lesser relievers have coming into primary setup jobs or have returned from injury. Here are last month’s rankings, and here’s the holds leaderboard for reference.

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The Toronto Blue Jays promoted third basemen Brett Lawrie from Triple-A Las Vegas yesterday, putting a Larry Walker sized weight on the Canadian born 21 year old’s shoulders. That isn’t to say he’ll be expected to be as good as Walker. He just happens to be the best Candian born player to debut for a Canadian team since Walker with the Expos in 1989.

Not only does Lawrie have the pressure of being the home country kid, he also was the main piece the Blue Jays got in return for trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers. Marcum was a fan favorite and has continued to put up excellent numbers (3.66 xFIP) for his new team. Lawrie won’t be tarred and feathered if he has a sub-par two months, but he does have lofty expectations bestowed upon him. That being said, what can we expect from him going forward?

Looking at Lawrie’s .353/.415/.661 line at Triple-A without any context makes it seem far more impressive than it is, despite being young for the level. The Jays Triple-A affiliate plays in Las Vegas, one of the best hitters’ parks in the minors. It has a 115 HR park factor for right handed hitters. That’s basically the equivalent of Yankee Stadium to left handed batters. He had a .308 ISO at Vegas, and no matter how good of a hitter’s park Rogers Centre is he won’t come close to that figure. Being that he is just 21 years old I’m not comfortable telling you to take his A (.362 wOBA) and AA (.361) numbers as an indication of his true talent level. That said, he likely falls between those two numbers and his current .459 wOBA. Kids, especially top prospects, can improve greatly in a short period of time.

Lawrie had a preseason ZiPS projection of .254/.309/.400. If his current numbers were factored into that I imagine that triple slash line would improve. Currently the American League average is .256/.322/.401. That should be easily attainable for Lawrie. Third base hasn’t been a very deep position this season so any added production is welcomed. He’s almost certainly an instant upgrade over players like Casey McGehee (all three homer games aside), Danny Valencia or Placido Polanco. Jose Bautista will be shifting back to right field, with Eric Thames moving to left.

The call up of Lawrie means the demotion of Travis Snider. For all his minor league success – he has SMASHED Triple-A pitching – he hasn’t been able to figure it out in the major leagues. He has a career slash line of .248/.307/.423 in 877 plate appearances. His power is vanished, dropping from a .208 ISO in 2010 to just .123 this season. Hopefully, for his sake and Toronto’s, he’s able to figure things out back in Las Vegas.

Eno Sarris will be by at 1230 to chat-a-tat, but leave your questions if you want to get ahead.