Archive for September, 2010

Catchers: September 6th

A holiday edition of “Catchers,” coming to you in three…two…one.

Ryan Hanigan | Reds | 2% Owned
Hanigan is a favorite of mine, and like Chris Iannetta, he just needs to receive added playing time to be a viable option. Hanigan walks more than strikes out, hits line drives and can hit the ball out of the park enough to make him a fantastic catcher. If I can go off script for a moment and discuss real life baseball (gasp!), there is no way Hanigan should be riding the bench. The Reds are splitting starts behind the dish right down the middle (pun intended), so Hanigan is a nice guy to have if you have room for a second catcher, or are willing to take reduced production and lowered risk.

Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 60% Owned
The BABIP Gods shined favorably on Molina during August, allowing him to produce a monster .329 average at the dish. While there’s no reason to believe he can do it again, Molina was going to get some good luck eventually. However, outside of July, his line drive rates haven’t been anything special, leading to a sub-par season at the dish. He’s capable of hitting .275 in September, which is just high enough for a roster spot. During the last month of my season, I’d rather have a catcher with more upside than Molina. I usually hype players up, but Yadier should not be owned in 50% of leagues, let alone 60%.

A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | 29% Owned
Guess who hit less than 13% line drives with a .346 BABIP in August? Pierzynski, that’s who! Besides cutting down on the strikeouts and the occasional dinger, Pierzynski hasn’t been productive at the plate this year. He’s not going to be sought after during free agency, but someone will take a chance on him this offseason. There’s no use owning him at this point, so don’t pay him any mind.


Waiver Wire: September 4th

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (Owned in 5% of Yahoo leagues)

Nationals fans giddily awaited a Stephen Strasburg/Zimmermann combo, giving the moribund franchise a pair of premium power pitchers at the top of the rotation. But alas, as Zimmermann’s Tommy John scars gave way to scoreless starts in the minors, Strasburg’s elbow gave out.

While the news of Strasburg’s injury is bitterly disappointing, Zimmermann is talented in his own right. Washington’s second-round pick in the ’07 draft was extremely impressive during his big league debut last season, with 9.07 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 and a 3.39 xFIP in 91.1 innings pitched. With a fastball averaging a hair over 93 MPH, a mid-80’s slider, a high-70’s curve and a mid-80’s change, Zimmermann leaped ahead in the count (65.2 first pitch strike%, 58% MLB average) and got a good number of swinging strikes (9%, 8.6% MLB average).

On the rehab trail, Zimmermann had a 31/6 K/BB ratio in 39.2 IP spread across four levels. And while two big league starts doesn’t tell us much, he has a 13/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings pitched. Zimmermann has averaged a little more than 92 MPH with his heater. He’s no Strasburg, but he’s well worth snagging in fantasy leagues.

Neil Walker, Pirates (32%)

Since the Pirates made him the 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Walker’s status within the organization has waxed and waned. The switch-hitter from nearby Pine Richland High School has gone from highly-touted catching prospect, to third baseman of the future to an afterthought utility man. But now, in the midst of an excellent 2010 season, Walker’s looking like the Pirates’ long-term answer at second base.

Recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis after raking to the tune of .321/.392/.560 in 189 plate appearances, Walker has posted +11.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in three-plus months in the majors. Turning 25 this coming Friday, Walker is batting .310/.354/.486 in 346 PA, good for a .362 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Walker’s wOBA is 27 percent above average (127 wRC+). Even better for fantasy owners, Walker still qualifies at the hot corner as well.

Granted, Walker hasn’t drawn many walks (5.8 BB%), and his batting average on balls in play is very high at .367. But ZiPS still projects him as an above-average hitter moving forward, with a .280/.321/.453 triple-slash and a .332 wOBA.

The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he cut it at second base? We just don’t know the answer yet. Six-hundred-some innings isn’t near enough of a sample to make an informed judgment, however bad his UZR marks might be. Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated Walker as somewhat below-average at third base in the minors, and figures he’ll cost his club more than a half-win with the glove at second. Expect Pittsburgh to give Walker every chance to make the transition, though.


Waiver Wire: September 3rd

It’s getaway day for a long weekend, but I refuse to admit the summer is nearing an end. I’m holding on for dear life. Oh, and here are a couple players that should be on your waiver wire and might be interesting to you.

Yuniesky Betancourt, Royals (18% owned)
Long a laughing stock of baseball, Betancourt is getting some love recently. Longtime critic Joe Posnanki even tweeted the other day that his OPS+ was higher than Derek Jeter’s this year. How’s that for a drink-snarfing moment? Hopefully your league does not count OBP, because he still is walking only 3% of the time this year (3.2% career) and featuring a terrible .289 OBP. Then again, hopefully your league doesn’t count slugging percentage either (.432)… but hey, look at that, the average slugging percentage for shortstops in the American League this year is a paltry .362. So that’s what Betancourt is – a semi-slugger at a position full of limp noodles. In any case, he’s hitting .313 with eight home runs over the past month, so he’s hot. Who knows how long it will continue, but but his BABIP (.273) is still below his career norms (.287), and his line drive percentage, though not great, is decent (18.1%). Betancourt could run into a few home runs while your regular shortstop is hurt, and as much as it pains this skeptic to say it, he has some use in fantasy leagues. Maybe if Jeff Francouer was a shorstop, he would have use in fantasy leagues, too!

Nolan Reimold, Orioles (15% owned)
This is one of those writeups that may inspire a ‘why should we pick this guy up again’ comment. But it’s worth taking a look at a player that will get some playing time this September, whether because of Adam Jones and his wonky shoulder or because the team would like to know if they have the flexibility to trade Luke Scott this offseason. Playing time alone is fantasy gasoline, but the talent has to be the spark to really get the flame going. Earlier this season, Reimold was walking (10.7%) and striking out (24.7%) about the same as career rates (11.35% and 22.1% respectively), but his power had fallen off a cliff (.124 ISO, .174 career, .215 in the minor leagues). Then the team sent him down, and he put up a nasty .249/.364/.374 line that doesn’t inspire any confidence that he found what he was looking for. His .125 ISO down there looked like a middle infielders’ output. There was certainly some poor luck at play – his MinorLeagueSplits.com luck- and park-adjusted line reads a little better (.288/.397/.433) – but the power is still on the lam. Looking at his batted ball profile, his poor line drive percentage in the major leagues stands out (14.1%), but at least he puts the ball in the air and had many .200+ ISO minor league seasons before this year. At 27, he’s no longer as young as you might think, and his time to grab a regular role may be running out. He seems a best fit for a fantasy manager that is out of the running in a deeper keeper league and is looking for a final keeper. Maybe he turns it on in the final month, the team trades Scott in the off-season, and things all fall into place for a cheap outfielder with a little pop. The rest of us can pass, as those are a lot of hurdles for a big firstbaseman to jump before he’s a great option.


RotoGraphs Chat – 8/3/10


Interesting Week 23 Two-Start Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Brett Anderson – In his last six games, Anderson has five Quality Starts and a 3.09 ERA. Yet somehow he is 1-4 in this stretch. Anderson has 28 Ks and 10 BB in 35.1 IP and has allowed just 3 HR. Seemingly past the elbow inflammation that kept him sidelined for nearly two months earlier in the season, make sure Anderson is active this week for his two home starts.

Yovani Gallardo – For his career, Gallardo has a 2.86 ERA before the All-Star break and a 4.73 mark afterwards. This season he has a 7.23 ERA in eight second-half starts. The schedule seems favorable with home starts against the Cardinals and Cubs but Gallardo is just 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA at home this year. Take him out of the lineup if you have any other option.

Edwin Jackson – Since joining the White Sox in early August, Jackson has hurled a Quality Start in each of his five games. He has an 11.05 K/9 with Chicago and has lowered his BB/9 to 1.96. Jackson’s 1.47 ERA may not be sustainable, but his FIP is 2.37 and his xFIP is 2.35 in his brief time with the White Sox. He gets the Tigers and Royals this week, so make sure Jackson is starting.

Wandy Rodriguez – Very little has changed since I recommended Rodriguez back in Week 20. Since then he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four games, with 7 BB and 27 Ks in 28 IP. His turnaround has been remarkable yet he is still active in just 66 percent of CBS Sports leagues. With games against the Cubs and Dodgers this week, there is no reason not to have Rodriguez in your lineup.

Jason Vargas – One of the bright spots this year for the Mariners has been the performance of Vargas, but the veteran lefty has been stumbling lately. In his last three starts he is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA. Furthermore, Vargas has been a different pitcher away from Safeco Field this year. In road games, Vargas is 2-4 with a 4.95 ERA, nearly 2 ½ runs worse than his home mark. Since Vargas has starts this week in Oakland and Anaheim, give him a spot on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Jimenez, Lester, Verlander, Oswalt, T. Hudson, Lee, Latos, Kershaw, Liriano, Haren, Lincecum, Hanson, Scherzer, Cueto, Romero, Marcum, A. Sanchez, Burnett, Pelfrey, Hunter, Bumgarner, Kennedy, Niemann, Westbrook, LeBlanc, Chacin, Zimmermann, F. Garcia, Volstad, Figueroa, Arrieta, Karstens, Carrasco, O’Sullivan, Monasterios, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 21 pitchers and how they fared.

Dickey – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.286 WHIP (2 starts)
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.629 WHIP (2)
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 5.14 ERA, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Lewis – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP (2)
Richard – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 1.32 ERA, 0.951 WHIP (2)


The Martin Prado Post

Perhaps to my detriment, I read the comments on my posts. I feel it keeps me on my toes and makes me a better analyst, but you might just call it some sort of sadomasochism (especially with some comments). In any case, a comment on a shortstop rankings post engendered this Jimmy Rollins post, so it can’t all be bad. Now some comments on my latest second base rankings post have me wanting to revisit a second baseman and his place in the rankings so far this season.

Some of the sentiment seems that Martin Prado should be in the first tier of second basemen. At first blush, this doesn’t pass the sniff test for me. For example, Brandon Phillips beats Prado in every traditional fantasy category but RBI (by about ten) and batting average (by about 25 points). Even going forward, you’d expect Phillips to have more power and speed, so this is no fluke thing.

Another second baseman mentioned was Ben Zobrist. The difference between Prado (top of fourth tier) and Zobrist at the bottom of the second tier is actually much closer than it might appear. The tier in between (with Brian Roberts, Chase Utley, and Chone Figgins) was titled “Will They Ever Get it Together” for a reason. Obviously, those guys – at their peak – offer more upside than Prado in fantasy baseball. They are also performing at levels that are far from their peaks this year, but that upside is still remains. Prado will never hit 30 home runs, nor will he steal more than 30. Those are fantasy numbers worth pursuing.

But I digress. Back to Zobrist. It doesn’t look like Zobrist’s power is on its way back, and Prado doubles him in the home run category, but Zobrist still gets on base at almost exactly the same rate if OBP is a fantasy category for you, and he steals many more bags than Prado. Unfortunately for me, the batting average is just not there for Zobrist, as his .251 average is not even projected to improve by much (.291 BABIP currently, .253 ZiPs RoS batting average projection). Thusly, Prado also beats Zobrist in runs by a hefty margin. Prado should probably be above Zobrist in the rankings it seems.

It is strange that a man with a .094 ISO in the minor leagues has put up an ever-improving ISO in the major leagues (.155 overall, .171 this yer), but we have to go with what he’s currently doing, especially since that improved ISO has now come in 1416 plate appearances. Perhaps the added juice on the pitches coming in is aiding the power of a line-drive hitter, or perhaps it’s just been a superlative development process. Prado is, at least, hitting the ball in the air a little more in the major leagues. His last two stops in the minors produced 27.3% and 23.8% flyball rates respectively, compared to 34.1% overall in the major leagues. In either case, his slightly-above-average power plays very well at second base, a tough position.

While Prado probably won’t hit 20 home runs, or steal ten bases, or be in the top three at his position in any category but batting average, he provides value in all five fantasy categories and is, in all likelihood, a top second-tier fantasy option at second base. Given all the qualifiers in that last sentence, perhaps I can be forgiven for not putting him in the top tier among players that do show great power and speed. But he should have been in the second.


Waiver Wire: September 2nd

Some players to keep your eye on during the last month of the season.

Freddy Sanchez | 2B | 17% Owned
Seeing that he was a fantasy darling only a few years ago, I’m surprised Sanchez isn’t owned more. He had a big August, mostly due to a huge BABIP. However, his line drive rate was impressive the past couple of months, so the days of Sanchez hitting over .300 may have returned. He still won’t steal any bases or provide you with much power, but he is a low-risk option late in the year. Pick him up if he need help in the “runs” category, or don’t want to risk losing points in the batting average column.

Felix Pie | OF | 4% Owned
With playing time has come return for the Orioles, as Pie is showing some of the promise that made him a highly thought of prospect in the Cubs organization. Given a full year of starting, Pie may be able to produce a .300/15/15 season, good enough for a backup outfielder in most leagues. He’s done a great job lowering his strikeout rate, but his walk rate has suffered. While not a great option in OBP leagues, he’s worth your time in standard leagues.

Chris Narveson | SP | 2% Owned
Narveson has done a great job of not issuing free passes recently, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s nothing special, but he’ll give you a chance to rack up a couple wins during the last month on the season. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, you’re taking a risk, but he’s worth it.

Wade LeBlanc | SP | 11% Owned
The pitcher from Petco had a fantastic August, upping his whiff rate to over 10% and striking out close to a batter every inning. His ground ball rate stayed the same, so I’m loving LeBlanc right now. He doesn’t really have the arsenal for that high of a strikeout rate, but hovering around the 7.5 mark per nine isn’t out of the question.


Morrow’s Keeper Conundrum

In an effort to limit his workload this season, the Blue Jays plan on shutting starter Brandon Morrow down after Friday’s outing against the Yankees. Morrow has established himself as a very good keeper candidate with his strong performances these last couple of months, but is he worth holding on to if he’s going to miss so much time? Here are some things to consider when it comes to keeping Morrow after this season.

1. September Shutdown
I briefly mentioned this above, but it’s a big deal. When a player is scheduled to ride the pine for the last month of the season, it can really complicate things for some owners. For owners who have teams who aren’t in contention, it’s no big deal, but competing owners? That’s a whole other story. For a team trying to win a league title, having all hands of deck is important and cannot be overstated. Some races get really close this time of year, and missing out on five starts could be the difference between first and second place.

2. Losing Eligibility
Thanks to the Mariners jerking him around for so long, Morrow had SP and RP eligibility this year. The Blue Jays have been kind enough to take away the valuable opportunity to slide Morrow into a relief role on your roster. While this isn’t a big deal in daily leagues, weekly owners willing to punt saves and rack up innings will have to make harder decisions next year. While it seems you can always find a starter who’s relief eligible, it’s rare to find one with Morrow’s skills.

3. Innings in 2011
The Blue Jays have said that they try to keep starters from increasing their workload by more than twenty innings. When all is said and done, Morrow will have pitched about 150 innings this year, meaning he’ll probably be around the 175-185 mark next year. Since he turns 26 next July, the Blue Jays may be willing to let him pitch freely next season, but I wouldn’t count on it.

In Conclusion…
Overall, Brandon Morrow and his owners should be asking for some relief appearances during September, but the Blue Jays aren’t going to oblige. A part of me hopes the Blue Jays decide to place him on the DL with a phantom injury, but with roster expansion they won’t be forced to. It’s hard to make a judgement one way or the other without knowing every owner’s situation, and I haven’t even made up my mind yet in one of my leagues. Weigh the facts, and make a decision. That’s all anyone can ever ask for.


Sleeper Keepers

Now is the time of year to worry about who you plan on keeping next season. Since most league’s trading deadline has passed, you’re going to need to head over to the waiver wire to find available young pieces. Here are three guys who you should consider picking up and keeping in deeper or league-specific leagues.

Roger Bernadina | OF | Nationals
The Nationals called up Bernadina when their other right field options (notably Justin Maxwell) failed early on. In a little over 350 trips to the plate this year, he’s posted a triple slash of .271/.327/.433 with a .338 wOBA. It’s not a surprise that he’s stolen 13 bases, but his double digit home runs are a shock, seeing that he never hit for power in any of his minor league stints. Bernadina turned 26 in July, so the power may finally be developing. He’s never going to be a superstar, but a 15/25 season is a reasonable expectation if he gets steady playing time next year.

Gregor Blanco | OF | Royals
Blanco came over to Kansas City thanks to the Ankiel/Farnsworth deal, and has gotten steady playing time ever since. The lefty rarely hits fly balls, which allows him to maintain a high BABIP without a super LD%. He knows how to draw a walk, but a lack of power makes him only a league average hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in under 200 plate appearances, and has only been caught once as a Royal. If Ned Yost gives him the same amount of playing time for a full season, Blanco could steal 25 bases without hurting your batting average, with the distinct possibility of swiping more than 30 bags.

John Lannan | SP | Nationals
While his overall numbers aren’t fantastic, Lannan has put up impressive numbers since being recalled in August. Lannan regained his control, while finding a way to raise his Whiff%, too. He’s maintained an impressive ground ball percentage through all of this, and I’m loving what he’s done in August. Be a bit more cautious with Lannan, but I think he’s figured something out on the mound, and could be a solid contributor next year.