Chris Sale, White Sox (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

Bobby Jenks‘ return from a right forearm injury has slowed, opening the door for Sale to snag saves in September. The 6-5, 170 pound beanpole with a low three-quarters delivery threw all of 10.1 innings in the minors after Chicago took him in the first round this past summer, but he’s impressing in the show with premium velocity from the left side.

Sale, slinging his fastball at an average of 96.2 MPH while mixing in low-80’s sliders and upper-80’s changeups, has struck out 23 batters in 17.2 IP. While he has issued 10 walks to go with all those K’s, the Florida Gulf Coast product has a 3.19 xFIP in a tiny sample. White Sox GM Kenny Williams has said that Sale will enter 2011 as a starter, but he’s certainly worth a roster spot closing out games for the South Siders in the meantime.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (29%)

Bumgarner became a prospect darling on the basis of a mid-90’s fastball that singed batters in the low minors, but panic ensued last season when the 6-4 lefty’s velocity dropped into the upper-80’s. In 2010, Bumgarner has assuaged concerns that he was hurt or destined to fall well short of the expectations that helped him rank as a top-15 farm talent (according to Baseball America) over the past two years.

Still just 21, Bumgarner pitched decently at Triple-A Fresno (82.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 4.31 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP, per Minor League Splits). Since being recalled to the majors in late June, he has whiffed 6.36 batters per nine innings, handed out 2.18 BB/9 and has a 4.22 xFIP. Bumgarner hasn’t blown hitters away, with an 84.1% contact rate that’s four percentage points above the big league average, but he is getting hitting his spots. He’s getting a first pitch strike 60% of the time (58.9% MLB average), and has placed 48.4% of his pitches over the plate (46.6% MLB average).

Though Bumgarner was once seen as an unrefined arm with heat and rudimentary secondary stuff, he has made use of all four of his pitches. He’s throwing his fastball about 57%, a mid-80’s slider 20%, a mid-70’s curve 12% and a low-80’s change 11%. Bumgarner’s not getting a ton of whiffs — his fastball has been whiffed at 6% of the time that it has been tossed (about average). His slider has an 8.6% whiff rate (13% MLB average) and his changeup comes in at 10.2% (12.1% MLB average). That leaves his curve (11.9 whiff%, 10.5% MLB average) as the only pitch with an above-average whiff rate.

However, he’s showing sharp control of all his offerings. Bumgarner has thrown his fastball for a strike 67% of the time (60-64% MLB average), 65.1% for his slider (62.7% MLB average), 61.9% for his curve (58% MLB average) and 67.5% for the change of pace (60.9% MLB average).

It’s also worth noting that Bumgarner’s fastball velocity has been on the rise. He sat 89.7 MPH in June, 90.5 MPH in July, 91.6 MPH in August and is averaging 92.8 MPH so far in September. Bumgarner is pretty good right now, but there’s more upside here if he starts flirting with those 2008 radar gun readings.

Down to the wire in your leagues. Don’t hesitate to drop players, especially pitchers – by the time someone picks them up they’ll get one start at most. Push, push, push, There’s still a little bit of time! Some short-term help below.

Julio Borbon, Rangers (25% owned)
Some of you might have Nyjer Morgan on your H2H team, and his eight-game suspension just went down. You might be going the distance. You might be going for speed. Your team is all alone, all alone in this time of need. Cue the speed racer, Julio Borbon. In September, he’s cut his strikeout rate back down to the 10% level it lived during his minor league career (10.7% career), and his BABIP is rising. Considering his speed, he could definitely own a BABIP higher than the .311 he has now, ZiPs RoS BABIP (.304) to be damned. In any case, September has Borbon starting (11 of the team’s 13 games), hitting (.333/.350/.410 so far), and stealing more bases than he has in a while (two), and that’s all you want from a short-term speed boost in H2H. Michael Brantley is also hot and stealing bases more prolifically, but we bigged him up at the end of August, so even though he’s owned in fewer Yahoo leagues (10%), it might be Borbon you find on your wire if your league is full of RotoGraphs readers.

Carlos Carrasco, Indians (5% owned)
You can still get the other CC for his start today against the Royals in some leagues, and that’s recommended. He’s not showing the best strikeout rate in the majors (6.10 K/9) or minors (7.93 K/9) this year, but he has supplemented that with an improving groundball rate in the majors (66.7%) and minors (46.1%). He’s also bettered his control this year in the majors (2.61 BB/9) and minors (2.66 BB/9), so he has his uses. Perhaps the mix isn’t mixed-league worthy every start – he’s much riskier for his next start against Minnesota, his second matchup against the Twins this year – but in deeper leagues, he makes a great spot start when he’s playing teams like the Royals. His minor league story is a little strange – he’s had strikeout rates north of nine per nine and south of six and a half per nine, and his groundball rates have oscillated from about 40% to 48% – but the overall package looks like it might play, if only on the back of his strong control. Streaming is inherently risky, but made more so with Carrasco.

Not many teams have the ability to replace an everyday player with his conceptual clone, but the Padres could have done just that when Tony Gwynn Jr. went down with an injury. Luis Durango, a 24-year old switch hitter, had been tearing up Triple-A pitching and is starting to see some playing time in the bigs.

During his first stint in Triple-A, Durango adjusted well, keeping his walk rate north of 10%, managing his strikeouts and running all over the basepaths. He stole 34 bases in 423 trips to the plate, though he was thrown out 32% of the time, a rate that will raise some eyebrows. Thanks to a line drive rate of 20%, Durango ended up posting a .300/.378/.325 line, coming in at a wOBA of .329. While he’ll never be an offensive force, as a tablesetter, Durango has his uses.

Unfortunently, we don’t have much of a MLB sample to go on when it comes to Durango. He only have 48 plate appearances this year, and those have been spread over multiple stints and pinch-hit appearances. While a line drive rate of only 2.8% is sad, a consistently good LD% in the minors is a much better indicator.

Could Durango have a place on your roster next year? Possibly, but he needs to receive more playing time. Because of their impressive outfield depth, the Padres have been filling the center field vacancy with a variety of options, Durango being one of them.

When you have wheels like Durango’s (seriously, if you’ve never seen him fly, watch this), you are a threat to be a fantasy stud someday. Keep an eye on him this offseason, and snatch him up if he can steal (pun intended) playing time in San Diego. If you’re in a deeper NL-only keeper league, he’s a solid option to stash away for next year.

In place of a post ranking the outfielders, I thought it might be fun to update the news about a rank outfielder or two. Badumching. Joe Pawlikowski did a nice piece on the front of the site talking about Nate McLouth and his strikeouts, but that was almost a month ago, and much has changed since then. In the meantime, the Braves traded for another center fielder, watched him play for a few days, and then went right back to the well with McLouth. Small sample sizes!

Of course, it’s not too hard to beat out Rick Ankiel these days. He still takes a walk right around league average (9.7% this year, 7.9% carer) while whiffing along with the league leaders (35.3% this year, 27.2% career). The silly thing is that while the whiffs have come with the usual corresponding poor batting average (.234 this year, .248 career), they have not come with boost in power that often comes with the all-or-nothing swing. In fact, Ankiel has now been at league average with the power stroke for two straight years (.156 last year, .152 this year, .194 career). Add in the fact that UZR/150 doesn’t like his center field defense (-11.7 career), and you have an unworthy player. Or, to be more precise, a player worth just about nothing (0.2 WAR on the year).

Then again, saying something like “Nate McLouth walks more, strikes out less, and has similar power, more speed and better outfield defense than Rick Ankiel’ is akin to saying that the Yankees have been run better than the Mets in recent history. Badumching yet again, I’ll be here all the week. Is there anything going on here that can help us believe in McLouth’s recent tear (.333/.367/.704) in September)?

Well, one of the things that McLouth had been struggling with was the K, as Joe P noted. He featured a sub-20% strikeout rate for his two best years and then got to Atlanta with the swiss cheese bat (23.5% this year). At least with Triple-A Gwinnett, McLouth worked on that and produced a better strikeout rate (13.9%), as well he should. Of course, the rest of his line was underwhelming during his minor league stint (.234/.338/.383), but at least he worked on the strikeout rate.

McLouth’s power also waned once arriving in Atlanta. His .131 ISO this year would be a career-low, but we do know that ISO takes the longest to become reliable, that McLouth has only accrued 253 plate appearances this year, and that his ISO also took a step forward in the minor leagues. Chalk that up as two things that got better once he went down to work on his game. Not surprising, given the state of his competition, but we’d be much more worried if he didn’t show these steps forward, right?

Nate McLouth will never be one to own for batting average, and we are working with small sample sizes when we look at his September numbers, but he’s also shown that he’s done work on his power and patience, and that he can at least be the McLouth of old. Especially in OBP leagues, or in deeper leagues, he can be a late-season asset. As for his keeper prospects, the way that the Braves have treated him seems to suggest they may look for a free agent center fielder this offseason, which would make him a very risky keeper.

The summer is winding down, but your fantasy team still needs furious updating for the final push, so don’t neglect it. Here is a duo of players, one for shallower leagues, and one for deeper leagues.

David Murphy, Rangers (17% owned)
Murphy has started 34 of the Rangers last 37 games, so the idea that he’s primarily a bench player seems outdated. Of course, he’s been getting more time with Josh Hamilton on the schneid with rib issues, but as this Rangers juggernaut rolls into the final couple weeks of the season, they’ll only have more incentive to rest their studs and get Murphy into the lineup. Murphy took a nice step forward this year, as he held on to the gains he made at the plate last year (9.9% walk rate last year, 9.7% this year, 8.7% career) while reducing the strikeouts from a career-worst level last year (18.3% this year, 24.5% last year, 19.9% career). Unfortunately, his ISO took a hit once he stopped swinging so hard (.144 ISO this year, .175 career) – and it’s a little surprising to see ZiPs RoS predict that the ISO will drop even further (.118 ZiPs RoS ISO). Here’s a bet that he can keep his ISO around league average going forward, which will make him playable with the better batting average that goes with the reduced strikeout rate. Murphy is also working on a career high in stolen bases (12) and since he’s only been caught once, it seems that the opportunistic thievery can continue. If you need a little bit of everything right now, Murphy could be your man.

Brayan Pena, Royals (2% owned)
Back on August thirteenth, I mentioned in a post about Ned Yost that the Royals manager was going to play his backup catcher more often. More often at first meant that Pena would start a couple games and rest a couple games, but then Jason Kendall got hurt and he’s been playing almost every day since. He’s under team control for a couple of years still, so it behooves the team to give him the at-bats to see what he can do. His wRC+ values over the last two years (96 and 92) don’t seem to suggest he’s a great sleeper for fantasy leagues, but it’s a tough position and players like Chris Snyder (owner of a similar wRC+ this year) have been owned periodically in many leagues. He’s worth a look. His walk rate right now (8.7%) is a little high given his minor league number (6.9%), but so is his strikeout rate (16.2% this year, 13.2% career, 10.1% minors). He could make a little more contact and keep a similar line. He won’t have much power (.100 minor league ISO), but his current line is sustainable – and he’s hot, hitting .421 over his past two weeks. He’s a borderline guy in the deepest of leagues, but he could help the right team.

Less than nine months after being the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay trade, 22-year-old Kyle Drabek will make his first big league start tomorrow night against the Orioles in Baltimore. Doug’s son just wrapped his first season in the Blue Jays’ organization, one in which he pitched to a 3.87 FIP with 7.33 K/9 in 27 starts (162 IP, a career high by just four innings) for the team’s Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire.

The statistical performance isn’t overwhelming, especially for a top prospect, but to understand how good Drabek can be you need to know what kind of stuff the kid brings to the table. ESPN’s Keith Law scouting Drabek during his last start, a tough luck loss in the playoffs in which he allowed one run on three hits and two walks in six innings of work, striking out five. Here’s a snippet of KLaw’s write-up from that outing (you need an Insider account to read the whole thing)…

… Wednesday night he brought the best stuff I’ve seen (or heard of) from him, with two plus-plus pitches and an aggressive approach. He started out 93-97 in the first inning and was 91-96 by the end of his outing, hitting 97 at least three times over the first two frames. His power curveball at 84-86 was a big league out pitch, with depth and a very sharp break — and he threw it for strikes in addition to burying it for swings and misses.

He barely used — or needed — his straight changeup, but it’s also not yet on par with the other two pitches. He worked to both sides of the plate and overpowered most of the hitters in Trenton’s weak lineup. Drabek takes a long stride toward the plate and generates great arm speed from it, although he doesn’t rotate his hips much and is off the rubber very quickly. I’m more concerned by his tendency to throw across his body when going to his glove side because of how he cuts himself off in his landing. Those two pitches do give him ace potential that I hadn’t seen from him, although the lack of a solid third offering and the minor delivery issues probably give him a realistic ceiling just below that.

Clearly, Drabek has the pure stuff needed to succeed in the big leagues, it’s just a question of whether or not he can take that next step, and how quickly he can do it. The big problem this year was walks; his 3.8 BB/9 in 2010 isn’t horrible, but certainly not what you usually see out of elite pitching prospects. Drabek is now two years out from Tommy John surgery, so his command should have come back by now. For what it’s worth, his BB/9 was a full walk lower at 2.8 last season and 3.8 before his surgery.

Chances are your league is deep in the playoffs now, so the idea of rolling the dice with a complete unknown – granted, a high-upside unknown – might not sit well with some. The Orioles are a below average hitting team against fastballs (-15.1 wFB) and one of the worst against curveballs (-14.1 wCB), Drabek’s two bread-and-butter pitches. Of course it’s not that simple, but if the righty avoids the rookie jitters and manages to throw like he’s capable of (and not overthrow, that’s the big thing), he’s a very good chance that he’ll have one of those blow-you-away debuts.

If you have a comfortable lead in ERA and WHIP (or are way behind, for that matter) and can afford to take a bit of a hit in those categories in exchange for some additional strikeouts and possibly a win, I can’t recommend Drabek enough. He’s owned in just 4% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s not much urgency to go out and grab him before everyone else. Keep an eye out for the O’s lineup tomorrow; If Buck Showalter decides to go heavy on the September call-ups for some reason, then I’d grab Drabek before the game if your league allows it. Either way, Drabek’s real fantasy impact won’t come until at least next season.

With the end of (fantasy baseball) days coming, some owners will need to look towards next year. Here are three first baseman who are widely available, and could provide some spark for you in the coming years at a very cheap price.

Brandon Allen | D’Backs | 1% Owned
Allen’s game is very simple, and reminds you of another Arizona slugger. He will hit home runs, and strike out more than any human being should, and will have an average walk rate. The hope is that he can keep the batting average above .250, allowing him to at least have some value to your team. Allen’s not playing everyday…yet. Adam LaRoche will likely try to find another home this offseason, freeing up the first base job for Allen and his stick. If he can stay healthy next year and get the bulk of the playing time, I wouldn’t be shocked to see at least 20 homers with a batting average hovering around the .245 mark. It’s not great, but if you’re a rebuilding team, it’s a step in the right direction.

Freddie Freeman | Braves | 0% Owned
While Freeman’s minor league numbers are nothing to laugh at, just glancing at them on the surface doesn’t make you want to scream “top prospect!” However, Freeman’s minor league career consists of hitting well at levels that are advanced for his age, something that cannot, and should not be overlooked. He doesn’t walk as much as you’d hope, but he has limited the strikeouts nicely and has provided enough pop to have Braves fans dreaming about him in next year’s lineup. Freeman’s only 20, so he still has lots of room to develop as a player, and the Braves may not be ready to have him make the next step. Keep an eye on him (and Derrek Lee) this offseason, but Freeman is a nice guy to keep stashed in your system.

Justin Smoak | Mariners | 3% Owned
We don’t have much new information when it comes to Smoak, except an update on how he’s done in a new minor league system (and ballpark). Smoak has a .271/.377/.481 line as a Rainier, hitting seven dingers in only 159 plate appearances. If he can work on limiting his strikeouts, his line drive stroke and pop will translate over beautifully into the big leagues. The Mariners are going to give him plenty of chances to play everyday next year, and it could be a big one for the Smoak Monster.

There’s just a week or two left in the fantasy playoffs, so here’s a short update on two starting rotation spots involving a current phenom and a former on…

Kyle Drabek | Blue Jays | 2% owned

I’ll have more on Drabek tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean you should wait to grab the 22-year-old righthander out of the free agent pool. The Blue Jays have confirmed that they will call up their top prospect and give him his first big league start on Wednesday against the Orioles (in Baltimore). His next start after that comes at home against the oh-so-lowly Mariners. Gimme gimme gimme.

Jeff Francis | Rockies | 4%

Francis’ return from the disabled list comes at a good time for the Rockies, who just lost Aaron Cook for the rest of the season with a broken leg. Francis has never been a great fantasy option because of middling strikeout rates (6.15 K/9 career, 5.73 this year), his scary home park (although his career home FIP/ERA is better than on the road), and the fact that he’s just generally underwhelming. However, the Rockies are absolutely on fire and there’s definitely potential to steal some wins here (at the expense of ERA and WHIP). You might have just enough time to grab Francis for tonight’s start against the Padres, but if not, he still goes again the Dodgers later in the week.

Quick Notes: The Yankees expect Andy Pettitte back this coming Sunday against the Orioles, hopefully not too late for your team … Justin Masterson will finish the season in the bullpen.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 24. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – Those who have waited all year for Dickey to turn back into a pumpkin have been disappointed. After a bad start against the Cubs in Wrigley, Dickey rebounded to post his 16th Quality Start of the year in his last outing. He gets two home starts this week. Dickey is 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA in Citi Field this year. Make sure he is active.

Barry Enright – Normally a K rate under 5.00 and a LOB% of 86.9 percent is something to run away from screaming. But at this point of the year when fantasy owners are jockeying for a money spot, you have to ride the hot hand. Enright has two road starts this week and this year away from Chase Field he is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in five starts. A small sample for sure, but he also gets to face a struggling Bronson Arroyo and the Pirates. Get him in your lineup.

Jon Garland – All season long Garland has been a pretty good pitcher at home and only so-so on the road. But in his last three games, all in Petco, Garland is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. This week he has road starts in Colorado and in St. Louis against Adam Wainwright. This looks like a good week to put Garland on the bench.

Daniel Hudson – In eight games for the Diamondbacks, Hudson has turned in eight Quality Starts. The FB% is still higher than one might hope for, but Hudson does have 20.3 IFFB% in the National League. His strikeouts have been up and down with the Diamondbacks, but Hudson has given owners strong ERA, Wins and WHIP numbers. Ride the hot hand and have Hudson as a starter this week.

Chris Narveson – The overall numbers look ugly but Narveson is on a nice little hot streak recently. In his last seven games, he is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Narveson has 35 Ks and 12 BB in his last 40 IP. After struggling with the gopher ball earlier in the year, Narveson has allowed just 3 HR in his last seven games and this week faces the Giants and Astros, with the latter team having hit the fewest HR in the National League this year. Get Narveson active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lester, Wainwright, Price, Liriano, Kershaw, Myers, J. Garcia, Danks, Arroyo, Matsuzaka, Zito, Lowe, Blanton, Duensing, Wood, Fister, Kazmir, Silva, McDonald, Duke, Maya, Francis, Luebke, Gee, Tomlin, Hochevar, A. Miller.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 22 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to sit. W, 2.08 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Duensing – Advised to start. W, 1.04 ERA, 2 Ks, 1.731 WHIP (2)
Happ – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.13 ERA, 11 Ks, 0.688 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. W, 3.68 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.886 WHIP (2)
Zambrano – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.46 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.135 WHIP (2)