Before we do an early-early 2011 ranking for these positions, let’s do one last update on shortstops and second basemen around the league. We’re still playing 2010 ball, for another couple of weeks at least.

Ryan Raburn, Tigers (57% owned)
There’s probably no better way to inject some power into your shallow league middle infield than picking up Ryan Raburn and sticking him at second base. His current .207 ISO is impressive for a second baseman (qualifying second basemen average a .1396 ISO this year), and not far off of his career pace (.196). It looks sustainable, if only because he is again hitting most of his balls in the air (46% this year, 47.7% last year, 44% career). He’s also steadily cut down on his infield fly balls (8.6% this year, 12.1% career). He’s a flawed player – he strikes out too much (24.3% this year, 25.2% career) to really put up a nice batting average, and his UZR/150 at second base (-27.4) suggests that he’s no long-term solution at the position. But right here, right now, watching your league slip away from you – Raburn can give your team a short-term power boost at a tough position.

Jose Lopez, Mariners (37% owned)
You hit three home runs in one (major league) game and you’ll get a writeup in this space too. The amazing thing about how bad his season has been is that even with that outburst, he’s hitting .200/.218/.347 in September and .237/.267/.337 on the year. At least he’s predictable. Lopez has now had five seasons with below-average power and his career ISO (.134) is also sub-par. Because he also doesn’t walk (3.5% this year, 3.7% career), he’s left with one sole skill in his offensive bag of tricks (and it’s offensive for sure). He still doesn’t strike out (10.9% this year, 11.9% career). Also, his fielding is mostly rated as positive. But that’s not enough to start on a good team, so either Lopez will be starting for a bad team next year, or he’ll be a backup. For now, pick him up at your own peril. Honestly, those 37% of Yahoo owners must include about 35% of owners that have checked out on the season.

David Eckstein, Padres (2% owned)
It’s nice to know that fantasy owners are 98% immune to the guile of the average local baseball columnist – and that Fire Joe Morgan came back for a day to remind us how bad sportswriting about Eckstein can be. Even though his proponents might say that his skills don’t translate on paper, there is one nice thing about playing Eckstein in the final weeks of your deep league, and it does show up in the boxscore (on paper). He doesn’t walk (5.4%) or strike out (7.7%). Sure, he doesn’t have any power (.062 ISO), but he’ll make the most use of his at-bats in the fantasy sense. Walks and strikeouts can be largely negative things when you are looking for batting average and batting average alone. Play Eckstein if you are looking for an average boost because he’ll get the most of his at-bats in a box score sense – and his grission level is off the charts, too. With Jerry Hairston Jr out for the year, he should play every day too.

Two last minute pick-ups for your team…

Craig Breslow | RP | Athletics | 3% owned

Oakland lost closer Andrew Bailey for the rest of the year with elbow issues, and while Mike Wuertz figures to get the lion’s share of the ninth inning duties from here on out, Breslow will get the opps against lefties. He’s had a fine overall year (3.12 ERA, 4.31 xFIP, 8.70 K/9) but has been death to lefties with a 9.25 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, and .189 AVG against. Breslow should get a few chances to close out some games during the season’s final weeks with the somewhat lefty heavy Angels and then the Mariners on the schedule. At this point, every save counts.

Mike Morse | 1B, OF | Nationals | 3%

It took some time after releasing Elijah Dukes, but the Nationals finally managed to find their everyday rightfielder. Morse stepped into the job for good in early August, and he hasn’t give the team any reason to regret that decision. If we play the arbitrary end point game, we can see that he’s hitting .292/.345/.523 in his last 235 PA and a robust .354/.433/.582 in his last 90 PA. As contending teams clinch playoff spots and start to rest their regulars, the Nats will keep running Morse out there to evaluate him for next year, and that’s good for your fantasy team. Depending on your league, he might even have SS eligibility from his time with the Mariners, but that was a seriously long time ago.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Both Jonathon Niese and Madison Bumgarner are young lefties having solid seasons, and are going to be kept in a number of leagues. But, what if you have both and have to pick one over the other? We need to examine both Niese and Bumgarner and decide who will be a better player next year, and a couple of years down the road.

Numbers
Niese and Bumgarner’s numbers are nothing spectacular, but when you combine all of their peripherals together, you get a solid pitcher. Niese has a strikeout rate north of 7.5 K/9, with Bumgarner unable to reach the 6.5 mark. Since his strikeout rate is lower, Bumgarner’s walk rate needs to be lower, which it is. Bumgarner walks about two batter every nine innings, while Niese walks about three. This means that Bumgarner’s K/BB is significantly better, coming in around three, while Niese isn’t even at 2.5. That’s Bumgarner’s biggest, and possibly only advantage. Both get enough ground balls to keep me off their case, and Niese’s 47% isn’t leaps and bounds better than Bumgarner’s 45%. Both have FIP’s and xFIP’s close to 4.00, so it’s hard to get a read on who could be better based on the pure numbers. This is where a tool like pitch f/x comes in handy.

Arsenal
Guess what? Their arsenal’s are pretty similar, too. Even with all of the talk about Bumgarner’s velocity, his fastball is hovering around 91 mph this year, and that includes his two-seamer. Niese sits in the 89-90 range, and doesn’t throw his fastball for strikes as often as Bumgarner. Niese also throws a nice slutter, and that is his only pitch with a positive run value. He does a great job of controlling it and getting whiffs, so that shouldn’t be a shock. None of Bumgarner’s secondary offerings are anything special, but he does a good job of throwing them all for strikes. However, Niese has great movement on his curveball, and while it’s whiff% is nothing to write home about (although maybe I just did?), it could be special if he can do a better job of controlling it.

Conclusion
Bumgarner is only 20, while Niese is already the ripe old age of 23. They both have the same physical build, but they use it in different ways. Since I have to pick one, I’d take Niese over Bumgarner because I think he can learn to control himself and lower his walks while upping his K’s, and I don’t know if Bumgarner will ever become more of a strikeout pitcher. If you can, grab both, but I’d rather have Niese.

September is a great time for non-contenders to call up some young players and give them playing time to see what they’re made of, but it’s not often that a contender calls up a rookie and throws him to the wolves in the middle of a division race. That’s exactly what the Braves did last night with righthander Brandon Beachy, who took the place of the injured Jair Jurrjens and allowed three runs (one earned) in 4.1 innings of work in Philadelphia.

Given the hostile environment and general awesomeness that is the Phillies right now, it’s a more than respectable performance for a kid that wasn’t even drafted out of Indiana Wesleyan University in 2008. Bryan Smith did fine job of introducing you to Beachy and reviewing last night’s performance, so I’m going to skip that stuff and get to the fantasy portion of our program.

Jurrjen’s has been diagnosed with a “small horizontal meniscus tear” in his knee and even though he expects to make his next start, Beachy will prepare himself for the outing just in case. That start would come Sunday at the Nationals, and in the event that he gets another start after that, it could come at home against the Phillies in the second to last game of the season.

Obviously Beachy’s not going to come in and blow anyone away or anything like that, so the only reason to consider him for your roster this late in the season is if you absolutely need a win or have to roll the dice to get the ERA and WHIP down. That’s the situation I was in last week when I had to pick up and start Chris Narveson and Jeremy Bonderman on Sunday out of complete desperation. Needless to say, my season’s over.

The important thing to remember is that the Braves are approaching desperation mode, so if the rookie struggles at all Bobby Cox is likely to have a real quick hook. That makes a win less likely, negating a huge chunk of Beachy’s value. Despite a monster 11.2 K/9 in the minors this year, it would be careless to grab him with the expectation of improving your strikeout column by that much. The best advice I can give is to simply play it by ear, and if you need someone to make that desperation start on Sunday, Beachy’s not a terrible option. Assuming he actually makes the start, of course.

*obvious joke title is obvious

A little turmoil today leads to two easy waiver wire pickups. Run don’t walk!

Michael Wuertz, Athletics (20% owned)
Looks like Andrew Bailey is going to Dr. James Andrews and is done for the year. That sounds terrible because it is. Well, the ‘done for the year’ part is not so terrible considering there are two weeks left, but the ‘Dr. James Andrews’ part is pretty bad. Wuertz has been good but not great this year – the strikeouts are still there (9.31 per nine), but he lost all the gains he made last year with his control. His walk rate (4.6 BB/9) is too close to his career level (4.05 BB/9) to think that this is really fluky. Instead, it looks like last year’s walk rate (2.63 BB/9) is the outlier. It’s a shame, but he has the punch to close, at least against right-handed lineups (3.29 career FIP against righties). His 4.21 FIP against lefties probably means that Craig Breslow will steal a save or two (3.43 FIP against lefties career). Together, that’s a decent closer, although a long-term injury to Bailey would have the Athletics hoping that Wuertz can corral the slider better next year. He does throw the pitch a whopping 65% of the time.

Mike Aviles, Royals (22% owned)
Well, maybe you don’t have to run to get Mike Aviles in your lineup. But Chris Getz did get shut down after experiencing renewed dizziness after working out today. He’s probably done for the year, given how long other concussion victims have been out this year. Aviles didn’t quite take the season by storm, as his ISO (.093) never got back to his career levels (.118). That’s sort of important, considering he doesn’t walk (4.4% career), and the only other offensive skill he offers is “not striking out” (11.2% this year, 13.8% career, average usually around 20%). In the last thirty days, however, Aviles has hit over .300 with power and speed and has been more than a decent middle infield stopgap. He’s not a great player, and while he has more power than Getz, the fact that Getz walks more, has more speed, and is a better defender will probably win out long term.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson from the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson, there were questions about Daniel Hudson major league future, namely about his potential. We knew what he could do in the minors, but needed an extended major league stint to truly value his long-term value.

From a less nerdy, and more scouty perspective, Hudson has a very low arm-angle when he pitches, especially for someone who stands 6’4”. While it’s not what I would recommend, it could be one of the reasons he fools hitters. His fastball sits at 92 mph, and he compliments it with a changeup that has some nice arm-side run. In fact, if he qualified, it would be the best change in baseball, thanks to a nice 26% whiff rate.

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Hudson was his extreme fly ball tendencies. While his tiny GB% will help his BABIP thanks to Arizona’s impressive outfield defense, it will lead to allowing more homers, a problem that while manageable, could be a big deal because of where he plays.

It really doesn’t matter what you look at, Hudson has been fantastic this year. He’s striking out almost a batter an inning, limiting the walks, and going deep into games. Sure, he’s had some luck on his side, but you can’t ask for much more from a pitchers who only 23. But we still haven’t answered the essential question: What’s his potential, and what’s his keeper value?

Like I said in Friday’s chat, I don’t think Hudson can be an Ace. However, he can be a good number two or three starter on a good team, and he’s a guy you will want pitching in the playoffs. While he’ll never have an ERA as low as it is now, he could easily win 12-15 games with an ERA under 3.50 as early as next season. Because he wasn’t drafted early this year, he has fantastic keeper value going into next year. He won’t be cheap in drafts, but if you already have him on your roster, keep him there as long as possible.

Rotation updates from around the league for those of you still battling it out in the playoffs…

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 63% owned

Jurrjens will miss his scheduled start tonight against the Phillies because of a knee issue that will require at least an MRI, and will be replaced by rookie righthander Brandon Beachy. I plan on looking at Beachy a little more tomorrow, but grabbing him for the start tonight is probably a bad idea. A rookie in Philly in the middle of a pennant race against Cole Hamels? Eh, might be better to pass on that.

Andy Pettitte | Yankees | 76% owned

Out since mid-July due to a groin injury, Pettitte returned yesterday and didn’t miss a beat. He limited the Orioles to one run through six innings, exiting the game only because he was on an 80 pitch count. The Yankee bullpen blew his win, but that’s part of life. Pettitte should make two more starts this season before the playoffs, one at home against the Red Sox and one on the road against the Blue Jays. Considering how well he’s pitched this year (2.81 ERA, 3.90 FIP), start start start.

Joel Pineiro | Angels | 18%

Like Pettitte, Pineiro returned to his team’s rotation this weekend to perform admirably: two runs in six innings against the Rays. Out since late-June because of an oblique issue, Pineiro’s extreme strike-throwing and groundball approach limits his fantasy value because he is a bit hittable (and by extension, certain prone to allowing plenty of runs) and doesn’t strike anyone out. However, Pineiro’s a good play because his final two starts come against the White Sox and Athletics, hardly offensive powerhouses.

Chris Young | Padres | 10%

The 6-foot-10 righthander finally returned to San Diego’s rotation this weekend, more than five months after his first (and only other) start of the season. Young allowed one run in just four innings of work against the Cardinals on Saturday, and it appears that his days as a low-to-mid-3.00’s ERA guy are behind him. The fastball is closer to 85 than 90 and his walk rate continues to go up, and he’s always been an extreme flyball pitcher in part due to his height. Young is a complete unknown at this point, and his last two starts comes against the Reds and Cubs at Petco. Start him at your own risk.

Quick Notes: The Mariners have hinted at limiting Felix Hernandez’s workload the rest of the way, which could mean skipping his final start, scheduled for the last day of the season … Jaime Garcia will have his start skipped on Thursday, the second straight time the team will sit him in an effort to control his workload. Even if comes back to make another start at some point, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be effective given the layoff … Jason Hammel is battling a cold and what he calls a “dead arm,” but right now the team plans on having him make his next start on Saturday.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 25. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Gavin Floyd – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball this year has been more Jekyl and Hyde than Floyd. In his last seven starts he had back-to-back starts where he gave up 13 and 11 runs bookend three straight Quality Starts. While going either way with him seems a risky proposition, I think he should be on the bench this week with two road starts, including one in Anaheim versus Jered Weaver.

Gio Gonzalez – Home has been good to Gonzalez this season as he has an 8-3 mark with a 2.70 ERA in Oakland. He got roughed up in his last start in Kansas City but prior to that had ripped off seven straight Quality Starts. With two home games this week, get Gonzalez in your lineup.

Philip Hughes – In his last five games, Hughes is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA. Since the All-Star break Hughes is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA. While the 16 Wins look nice, Hughes has not been a particularly good pitcher for over two months now. Hughes does get two home starts this week but they are against the Rays and Red Sox. The Yankees have scored a ton of runs for Hughes this season, an average of 6.79, so the possibility for a Win is certainly there. But the rest of the numbers could be very ugly. Unless you are desperate for Wins, give Hughes a seat on the bench.

Mike Pelfrey – Hughes and Pelfrey have been linked quite often this season as young pitchers with big win totals for the two New York clubs. While Hughes has benefitted from great run support, Pelfrey has received a big boost from his home park. In Citi Field this year he is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA. But in road games Pelfrey is 5-6 with a 5.30 ERA. This week he has road games in Florida and Philadelphia so give him a spot on the bench.

Jake Westbrook – In nine games since joining the Cardinals Westbrook has just a 2-3 record. But he has hurled a Quality Start in eight of those nine games and in his last outing threw eight shutout innings. This week he squares off against Pittsburgh and Chicago, two teams that are a combined 60 games below .500 on the year. Owned in just over half of CBS Sports leagues, Westbrook is a potential waiver wire option in your league. Pick him up if he is available and start him if he is already on your roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 25 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Weaver, Carpenter, Hamels, Cain, Greinke, Garza, Billingsley, Cahill, Jurrjens, de la Rosa, Shields, Happ, Lewis, Richard, Matsuzaka, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Norris, Porcello, Bailey, Saunders, Holland, Nova, Volstad, Capuano, Bush, Maholm, J. Gomez, Chen, French, Mendez.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 23 pitchers and how they fared.

B. Anderson – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.84 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.023 WHIP (2 starts)
Gallardo – Advised to sit. W, 1.29 ERA, 10 Ks, 0.929 WHIP (2)
Jackson – Advised to start. 7.30 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.946 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.214 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to sit. 4.77 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.500 WHIP (2)

A player with a lot of hype surrounding him after the numbers he put up last year, Justin Upton has been a bit of a disappointment this year. Before the year began, some fantasy guru’s were projecting the ever elusive 30-30 from Upton, hoping that his raw skills would shine through and get him to that promised land. It hasn’t happened, to say the least. Upton’s numbers have dropped off in every standard category, hurting owners who pounced on him early in drafts.

Upton’s biggest problem this year has been the strikeouts. Because he had always struck out more than an average player, we knew this could happen, but a K% over the 30% mark is scary. While his K% has risen, his Whiff% has fallen, a strange occurrence. Upton has actually done a better job making contact this year, and while he may be letting too many pitches go by, I’d say he’s in for a lowered K-rate next year.

While he’s struggled with the K’s, he could still be one of a handful of players that could end up in the 20-20 club this year. It’s going to take a small surge over these next couple of weeks, but Upton could do it and no one would be surprised. What worries me is his success rate on the basepaths, as it’s dropped all the way down to 68%. Obviously, that needs to improve next year.

Could his down year be a great thing for future owners? Definitely. He could easily bounce back next season, and put up numbers closer to his 2009 campaign. I’m thinking he’ll end the 2011 season with a .285/25/18 line, which is impressive, but not overly so. I don’t think predictions of a 30-30 season were off base, but they may have been a tad optimistic. Temper your expectations when it comes to Upton’s 2011, but don’t forget the promise he’s shown and the potential he has.