It’s Friday, you’re ducking out the door early, and you got somewhere to be and some adult beverages to drink. That makes sense. But here are a couple waiver wire candidates to ponder while you are still supposed to be pretending to work.

Carlos Lee, Houston (77% owned)
He’s 34, overweight at best, and in the middle of a very obvious and painful decline. His HR/FB, line drive rate, and ISO have all dropped off precipitously in the last three years. Let’s not mince words. But he’s hitting better recently – .277 with four home runs and two stolen bases over the last thirty days – and he has some regression coming in his favor, too. Even for a low-BABIP player (.287 career BABIP), his current .244 BABIP would be the worst of his career. That should normalize, even if, not surprisingly, his line drive rate is currently the second-worst of his career. He doesn’t strike out a lot – that part of his game has remained steady (10.1% this year, 12.9% career) – so all those balls he puts in play should help the BABIP regression along. He’s still 70 or so plate appearances away from having a reliable ISO, so his career-worst ISO (.161) has a chance to grow over the next few weeks as well. He’s pretty much a DH in the field, and without his power he will be nigh useless, but owners looking for an offensive shot in the arm from their bench should look his way. El Caballo will trot around the bases a few more times before he’s turned into glue.

Chris Young, San Diego (7% owned)
Young is having shoulder troubles, and that’s never good. But supposedly he’s pain free and ready to pitch a simulated game this weekend, which would have him on track to join the major league rotation in early September. It’s not immediately obvious who would drop from the rotation, but the Padres have talked about limiting the innings for Mat Latos (so great he only needs one ‘t’) and his young arm, so he could spot start there. Also, Kevin Correia has oscillated between starting and relieving over his career, and is currently sporting a 4.64 FIP. Young has never relieved and has a career 4.22 FIP even after all the damage he’s put on his career numbers with his recent injury-addled performances. The point is, the team could use him, and if he’s finally healthy again, maybe he can find his old control (3.5 BB/9 career, over four the last three years) that makes his stuff play better. We know Young likes PetCo – his 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP there in 255.1 innings is almost reason enough to pick up Young and stash him on your deep league disabled list.

Last week, after a throwaway comment about his inclusion among the elite shortstops, we had a delightful repartee in the comments section about Jimmy Rollins. I rarely own Rollins because of his first- and second-round cost, but perceive him as elite from afar, so some of the comments surprised me. Was his 2008 “crappy?” Has he really not been elite for years? Do you have to be taken in the first two rounds to be elite? Let’s try and go at this without preconceptions and work forward.

What is elite? I might have a healthy Rollins as the fourth- or fifth-best shortstop in the fantasy baseball this year. Would that be elite? A comparable outfielder would be one that was in the top third at his position, or the ninth- or tenth-best OF. That would be somewhere between Vladimir Guerrero and Hunter Pence so far in 2010. That doesn’t pass the sniff test, so it doesn’t look like Rollins is ‘elite’ if elite means something like the top tenth at a certain position. Certainly, Rollins is not passing Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes is healthier and younger, so that’s debatable as well.

So does Rollins belong in the same tier even? He does own a career 105 wRC+, which looks great compared to the average batting-average qualifying shortstop this year – 86 wRC+. Perhaps a comparison to Troy Tulowitzki will help. Tulo put up 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases to Rollins’ 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year, and while that seems fairly comparable, Rollins of course had a .250 batting average while he accrued his stats, compared to Tulo’s much more palatable .297 number. Case closed? Rollins’ batting average sinks him from the tier?

Maybe. It’s pretty stark. But Rollins had a .251 BABIP last year, which pales next to Tulowitzki’s .316 in the same season, and also next to his own .291 career BABIP. So if Rollins had put up something closer to his .273 career batting average, he probably would be a lot closer to fitting in the tier, no?

Then there’s the issue of Tulowitzki’s speed. It’s inconsistent. It’s not something to depend on. His career success rate is 61%, and his career speed score is 5.1 (5.0 is average). He never stole more than six bases in a minor league season, either. It wouldn’t be going out on a limb to predict that he’ll never again steal twenty bases.

So let’s try to ‘normalize’ Tulowitzki’s stats using his career ISO and this analysis of his speed. If he’s a .190 ISO guy, with questionable speed, we might want to guesstimate something like a .290 season with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases next year. Other guys with .190-.200 ISOs this season include David Wright, Delmon Young and Torii Hunter, and though ISO doesn’t straight up equal home run power, this seems to make sense.

What would a similar guesstimation have to say about Rollins? Let’s take his career batting average, accrued over 6800 plate appearances, add it to his plus speed, and take his .163 career ISO to spit out something like .270, 12 home runs and 35+ stolen bases in a healthy year. That seems comparable to Tulo, even if you give the younger shortstop a nudge for being younger and having more power. Stolen bases are rare, and getting them from a middle infielder is a bonus.

The gorilla in the room is Rollins’ age. He’ll be 32 next year and aging middle infielders can find themselves in precipitous declines – just ask Derek Jeter how 2010 is going. Rollins’ ISO has declined, generally, over the past four years, and his speed scores, though still nice (7.0 this year), have fallen off his elite pace as well. Even though it’s tempting to say he’s been ‘oft-injured’ recently, it’s hard to discern a serious trend in his plate appearance totals. It’s definitely worth noting that his lowest two plate appearance totals will have come in the past three years, though.

Yes, Rollins is declining. Yup, he’s probably not elite. Yes, most people would take Tulowitzki over Rollins. But no, he’s not dead yet. And no, despite his injury-riddled 2010 and poor-luck-addled 2009, he’s not quite ‘crappy’ just yet. Taken at the right moment in 2011, he may just win a few fantasy leagues next year. Heck, his comeback may just win a couple fantasy leagues this year, provided his owners didn’t fall too far off the pace while he was out.

A four-pitch lefty taken fourth overall in the 2008 draft, Brian Matusz shredded minor league bats during his pro debut — in 113 innings split between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, the San Diego star whiffed 9.5 batters per nine frames, walked 2.5 per nine and compiled a 3.02 FIP. Matusz reached the Charm City less than a year after he and the Orioles agreed on a major league contract worth a little more than $3.4 million. He placed fifth on Baseball America’s list of the best farm talents in the game prior to 2010, and Matusz recently ranked #44 in Dave Cameron’s Trade Value series. Suffice it to say, Matusz comes with quite the prospect pedigree.

While there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll emerge as a valuable commodity to the O’s and fantasy owners alike, Matusz holds a 5.11 ERA through his first 32 starts at the big league level. Now that the 23-year-old has pitched at the highest level for a little more than a year, this seems like a good time to examine what the former Torero needs to do to avoid getting gored by hitters.

Matusz has 7.12 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 in 174.1 innings pitched. While he showed slight ground ball tendencies during his short stay in the minors (48.1 GB%), the 6-5 southpaw has gotten grounders just 35.4% of the time in the majors. That has led to his giving up 1.08 homers per nine innings, despite a home run per fly ball rate (8.5%) that’s below the 10-11% MLB average. All of those fly balls are concerning, given that Camden Yards increased the rate at which flies turn into souvenirs by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. If Matusz had given up home runs on fly balls at an average rate (11%) on the road and 13% at home, he would have served up over a homer and a half per nine innings instead.

In a couple of other respects, however, Matusz has been unlucky. He’s got a .331 BABIP, which is very high for any starter, much less an extreme fly ball pitcher. While the flies that aren’t caught are generally quite harmful, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. Matusz’s BABIP on flies is .165, while the AL average is closer to .140. He also has a .781 BABIP on line drives, compared to the .720-.730 AL average. We don’t yet have enough information to say whether that’s noise or something more significant, but odds are his BABIP falls.

His rate of stranding runners on base (68.6%) my creep into the low-70’s, too — based on this formula developed by Dave Studeman, Matusz’s LOB rate should be closer to 71%. Overall, Matusz’s expected 4.65 FIP (xFIP), based on his rate of K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is nearly a half-run lower than his actual ERA.

Matusz has gone to his 90-91 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, adding in a low-80’s changeup (19%), a mid-70’s curveball (10%) and a low-80’s slider (8%). That expansive repertoire has garnered swinging strikes at a near-average clip (8.3%). He’s putting plenty of pitches within the strike zone — 54.3% last year (49.3% MLB average in ’09) and 49.2% this season (46.8% MLB average). Opponents are making contact with those in-zone offerings just 85.5% (87-88% MLB average). However, they’re getting the bat on the ball often when swinging at pitches thrown off the plate. Matusz’s O-Contact rate was 65.7% last season (61.7% MLB average in ’09) and it’s 73.9% in 2010 (66.6% MLB average).

Against fellow lefties, Matusz is a monster (11.47 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.18 xFIP). Right-handers, by contrast, aren’t trembling at the prospect of facing him (5.93 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 5.06 xFIP). Check out his whiff rates by pitch type versus lefties and righties, from TexasLeaguers.com:

Keep in mind that the sample sizes aren’t massive here. That being said, opposite-handed hitters haven’t been fooled near as much, especially against Matusz’s fastball.

Brian Matusz remains a keeper-league favorite, but he’ll have to overcome his fly ball proclivities and find a way to make righties come up empty more often to take the next step in his career.

James McDonald, Pirates (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

I took an in-depth look at McDonald a couple of weeks before the Dodgers shipped the lanky right-hander to the Bucs (along with OF prospect Andrew Lambo) in exchange for reliever Octavio Dotel. The article’s main point still stands:

At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome.

However, McDonald’s career prospects brightened considerably following that deadline deal. In L.A., he was an out-of-favor option for the back of the rotation. In Pittsburgh, he’s arguably the most talented arm on the staff. The 25-year-old has impressed his new club so far, posting a 20/4 K/BB ratio and surrendering five runs in 17.2 innings pitched. He’s sitting 92-93 MPH with his fastball, mixing in a sharp 12-to-6 curve and a fading changeup.

Don’t get carried away — it’s just three starts, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection (7.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.77 FIP) isn’t spectacular. But McDonald now has a clear shot at regular starts, and he’s young and gifted enough to garner interest in NL-only leagues.

Pedro Alvarez, Pirates (24%)

The second overall pick in the 2008 draft boasts excellent secondary skills, and he’s taking and raking so far in the majors. Alvarez is batting .255/.339/.453 in 218 plate appearances, walking 11.5% of the time and posting a .198 Isolated Power. That’s good for a .348 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. Pedro’s powerful cuts have come with plenty of whiffs, though — he’s just shy of Mark Reynolds territory with a 35.9% K rate and a 68% contact rate.

Still, as Reynolds, Adam Dunn and other hitters with Herculean pop prove, strikeouts don’t preclude a batter from being highly successful. This 23-year-old Vanderbilt product might not top the .250 range, but his patience and power make him worth a roster spot in mixed leagues.

This waiver wire is New York Mets-themed because Mets fans need some solace in what is increasingly looking like another lost season. A 0.5% chance at the playoffs remain for the Mets, but these two players with lower ownership rates can help you better your own chance to get to your fantasy playoffs at least.

Hisanori Takahashi (14% owned)
Of course, Bull Durham taught all of us not to punch with your pitching hand, but perhaps Francisco Rodriguez has not seen the movie. His rage lead to an opening at the Mets’ closer position, and since Jerry Manuel is a creature of habit, it looks like Tak-san is already the winner. Of course, an argument could be made that the team needs to look to the future, and Bobby Parnell or even Chad Cordero offer more hope for cheap, controllable seasons in the future than does the 35-year-old, one-year contract Takahashi. But New York is the type of market that fosters an ever-present win-now mentality. Call it media pressure, or the new-stadium-driven need to get fans in the seats, but this is not a team that looks like it will be rebuilding any time soon. Most of this team is under contract for 2011, so the guess here is that, after some bluster and blarney, Rodriguez is back in the closer’s role next year. That means that Takahashi is left as the best stop-gap option, and will be garnering saves for the Mets for the next six weeks. You can mention Pedro Feliciano, but his 4.94 FIP against righties (822 batters faced) is an effective argument against. Here are some more words on the subject from a team future standpoint, but from a fantasy standpoint, Tak-san looks to be the winner here. Those doubting his ability to closer should take a look at this pitch f/x piece here (with the caveat that our Patrick Newman thinks the slider looked more pedestrian in Japan), and also note that this rates have been better as a reliever (10.22 K/9 and 4.14 B/9).

Fernando Martinez (0% owned)
It’s hard to call this a recommendation for a pickup at this point, but the nice news is that he’s only 117 plate appearances into his career, so his .087 ISO is still 400+ plate appearances away from meaning anything. He’s still just months past being named the number one Mets prospect by Maven Marc Hulet, too. But Dave Cameron warned us that a couple months can mean a lot when it comes to prospects, so what have we learned this year? Well, we learned that Martinez got injured yet again, and that these injuries are concerning. We also learned that a .209 ISO in Triple-A at 22 is part of his package, which is good news. It would be nice to see a year out of him where we didn’t mention his age, but that’s for the future. The bad news is that his platoon splits continued to be poor. This year at Triple-A he had a .832 OPS against righties, .691 against lefties, and the larger sample size, his entire minor league career, features a .819 OPS against righties / .689 against lefties. Even if that larger sample is only about 380 plate appearances against lefties and splits don’t become reliable until somewhere around 1000 plate appearances for left-handed batters, it seems the Mets will platoon him with Jeff Francouer and limit his development going forward – because that is how they roll. There’s still a chance here for some decent power from this outfielder. Judging from the ownership numbers, deep keeper leagues may find him on the wire, and a rebuilding team may want to take a shot on F-Mart.

Some notes on three third baseman to start your Tuesday.

Blake DeWitt | Cubs | 2% Owned

DeWitt was the main piece heading back to the Cubs in the Ted Lilly deal, and has made the Cubs very happy with his production thus far. His line drive approach and quickness will allow for his .335 BABIP to say relatively constant, keeping his batting average around .275. If he can cut back on the strikeouts by a couple percent, he will be an even better fantasy (and real life) option. He won’t hit for much power, or steal many bases, but he’s a good option if you are looking for batting average or you need help in an OBP league.

Alex Gordon | Royals | 19% Owned

Since being recalled from the minors, Gordon has hit four homers in 22 plate appearances, and even stole a base. His walk rate in that time has not been good, and his strikeout rate hasn’t been good, either. His BABIP has been low, compared to his line drive rate, so the batting average will come up a bit. His ability to fill both your third base and left field hole helps his value, and he’s still worth an add in deeper and AL-only keeper leagues.

Paul Janish | Reds | 0% Owned

Janish is starting to enter his peak seasons, so it’s now or never for the Cincinnati shortstop. Janish has always hit a strangely high amount of fly balls for a light hitting shortstop, but his BB and K-rates have been consistently good, and getting better. Like DeWitt, Janish is worth a shot in OBP leagues, though he should probably be slotted in at your shortstop position. If you’re in a keeper format, hopefully Janish shows enough on the field for the Reds to consider him for a starting role in 2011, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Some notes on three first baseman to start your Tuesday.

Carlos Delgado | Red Sox | 1% Owned

Recently signed by the Red Sox, Delgado has already had a setback while playing for Triple-A Pawtucket. He had some stiffness in his back during Sunday’s game, leaving the game after only three innings. The 38-year old has only had fifteen trips to the plate in the minors, so we can’t judge how his bat looks. He has also admitted to his surgically repaired hip being sore, so he is going to need some things to go right for him to make it to the big leagues before sometime in mid-September. For those of you who stashed him when he signed with the Red Sox, he’s not going to be worth the trouble.

Mitch Moreland | Rangers | 0% Owned

After Chris Davis struggled (once again) in the majors, the Rangers turned to their next young first baseman. Rated as the Rangers seventh best prospect by both Marc Hulet and John Sickels, Moreland excelled in Triple-A while playing first base and right field. Just like he’s shown in 43 major league plate appearances, he won’t give you a ton of power, but will reach base at a good clip and smack line drives all over the field. He’s worth a pickup in AL-only leagues, and is a good option in keeper leagues.

Ryan Raburn | Tigers | 4% Owned

Raburn put up huge power numbers last year, but has fallen back down to earth this year. He’s caught fire in August, hitting four homers in 14 games, but his decision to hit fly balls in an attempt to hit home runs will end up killing his batting average. His second base and outfield eligibility helps his value, and he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if you are looking for some power.

Three guys coming off the disabled list and going back into their team’s rotations…

Homer Bailey | Reds | 5% owned

Out since May with shoulder inflammation, Bailey returned to the bump yesterday and fired six scoreless innings against the Marlins. He struck out four and walked none, though earlier in the season his BB/9 was over three-and-a-half. (R) ZiPS isn’t a fan, forecasting a 5.10 ERA with just 6.90 K/9 the rest of way, though I think Bailey could beat that and post an ERA in the mid-4.00’s with a strikeout rate closer to eight per nine. If you matchup him up against impatient teams that swing-and-miss a lot, he could give your club a real nice boost (think of it as Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. The Blue Jays Syndrome). Bailey’s next two outings come at the Dodgers and at the Giants.

Derek Holland | Rangers | 2%

Holland came back from his shoulder and knee issues just in time to take the place of the DL-bound Rich Harden, and will start Wednesday against the Rays. The hard throwing lefthander misses enough bats and doesn’t walk many, but he’s proven to be very homer prone in his short time in the big leagues. (R) ZiPS sees an unfriendly 5.40 ERA and 6.60 K/9, though I definitely think the strikeouts are a little light. The Rangers will win him a ton of games because of their offense and bullpen, so Holland still has fantasy value as a fifth or sixth kind of starter.

Kyle Lohse | Cardinals | 8%

Brad Penny isn’t coming back anytime soon and Jeff Suppan has mercifully been put to sleep placed on the DL, so Lohse is back from a forearm issue to drive Cardinals’ fans mad. He had his patented fourth inning meltdown yesterday against the Cubs (charged with five runs without recording an out in the frame). Lohse has always had good stuff, but his 3.78 ERA (3.89 FIP) year in 2008 sticks out like a sore thumb from the rest of his career. I wouldn’t touch him even in extremely deep or NL-only leagues.

Quick Notes: The Mets recalled Pat Misch but he’s non-rosterable … Jhoulys Chacin is going to fill-in for the injured Jeff Francis, and I’d expect more of what he did earlier in the year (4.04 ERA, 9.73 K/9) the rest of the way. Jump on it.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Considering that Cincy sits a game up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and has a three-in-four-shot of making the playoffs according to CoolStandings, chances are we’re going to experience a Red October for the first time since 1995. While the Big Red Machine doesn’t have a stealth submarine on hand, the club does hope that the mended Edinson Volquez can be a secret weapon down the stretch. Six starts into his comeback, Volquez is displaying his typical bat-missing ability while understandably showing some rust as well.

The former DVD member scuffled in big cameos with the Texas Rangers from 2005-2007, striking out 6.2 batters per nine innings, walking 4.7 per nine and serving up 1.6 HR/9. His xFIP was 5.34. But he broke out upon being dealt to the Reds (along with Danny Herrera) for Josh Hamilton in December of 2007. Volquez posted a 3.88 xFIP in 196 innings during his first foray in the NL, with 9.46 K/9 and 4.27 BB/9. He got swinging strikes 11% of the time (8.4-8.6% MLB average recently), with a 73.8% contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Edinson’s brilliant work was worth 4.3 wins.

Unfortunately, Volquez would make just nine starts the following year. He wasn’t near the same dominant arm, putting up rates of 8.52 K/9, 5.8 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP in 49.2 frames. His swinging strike (10%) and contact (74.8%) figures remained stellar, but he just couldn’t locate. Volquez placed only 41.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average that year), compared to 49.6% in 2008 (51.1% MLB average). As a percentage of the big league average, his zone rate went from 97.1 in ’08 to a paltry 84.2 in ’09. Volquez was placed on the DL with lower back spasms in mid-May, but the big blow came after an aborted one-inning start against the Cards on June 1st. He needed Tommy John Surgery, as well as a repair of his flexor mass tendon.

Volquez’s rehab drew national headlines in April, as he was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for Clomid, an estrogen-blocking drug banned by Major League Baseball. Since he was out of action, the suspension cost Volquez cash (a little more than $130,000) but not actual game time. In 31 innings pitched between High-A Lynchburg and Triple-A Louisville, Volquez compiled a 28/8 K/BB ratio and surrendered just five runs.

The 27-year-old got the big league call in mid-July and has tossed 29.2 innings so far. Volquez has struck out over a batter per inning (9.1 K/9), with a 12.3% swinging strike rate and a 69.6% contact rate. But he’s also walking the yard (6.37 BB/9), the result of putting just 36% of his pitches in the zone (46.9% MLB average). That’s 76.8% of the big league average. Overall, his xFIP is 4.69.

While the sample size is small, Volquez has gotten grounders 56% of the time (44.5% prior to this season). Changes in ground ball rate gain some significance at 150 batters faced, so that’s worth watching for a guy making his home starts in a park that inflates HR production by 22 percent for lefty batters and 35 percent for right-handers.

In terms of stuff, Volquez is sitting at a typical 93-94 MPH with his fastball and getting whiffs 9% of the time with the pitch (6% MLB average). It appears as though he has nearly scrapped his slider in favor of a 77 MPH curveball, which is garnering whiffs 15% (11.6% MLB average). Volquez’s low-80’s changeup has a 20.5% whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). Of course, finding home plate has been an issue — the fastball has a 58.7% strike rate (60-62% MLB average), the curve sits at 50.4% (58%) and the change 55.6% (60.7%).

Given that we’re dealing with a month’s worth of starts, it’s best not to put a whole lot of stock in these numbers. But to this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool. Pitch F/X whiff and strike numbers from TexasLeaguers.