Archive for August, 2010

Waiver Wire: August 24th

For those of you past your trade deadline, the waiver wire is increasingly important. At this point in the season, it’s also probably time to start thinking about particular statistics. A targeted push will make much more of a difference than an attempt to find across-the-board boosts. In that effort, here are some (slightly) one-dimensional players that should be interesting in the final weeks.

Peter Bourjos, Angels (1% owned)
It’s obvious that some people on the front of the site have a little mancrush on Bourjos. It’s irrational, but so are some aspects of Bourjos’ game. In a mere 17 games, he’s already accrued 5.2 UZR (a redonkulous 96.9 UZR/150 which leads the universe I’m pretty sure without checking). Also, Bourjos currently has an 8.6 four-factor speed score, which would lead baseball if he qualified. On the basis of those two aspects alone, he’ll have a pace in baseball… and a long leash. Long leashes are important when you are sporting a .202 BABIP on a team that doesn’t seem to care too much about advanced statistics. In particular, Bourjos is still playing every day because his glove is required, and he even strung together five hits in his last 18 at-bats, so deeper league stewards seeking stolen bases should select this speedster straight away. (Suffering succotash.)

Mitch Moreland, Rangers (1% owned)
It’s not terrible to be in a platoon if you’re the left-hander and are getting the bulk of the at-bats against right-handers, and that’s where Moreland finds himself. Moreland is also probably scraping the upper levels of his upside right now. A high BABIP (.359) is floating his batting average a little bit, but his walk rate (13.2%), strikeout rate (27.6%) and ISO (.190) are all in line with what might be expected from a man with his minor league walk rate (10%), strikeout rate (15.9%) and ISO (.196). In fact, as that BABIP regresses to the mean, he may actually strike out a little less often and keep his overall line looking very similar. Call him the anti-Chris Davis because he probably won’t put up the same strikeout and power totals as the former first sacker, but that doesn’t sound like denigration after all the troubles Davis went through. Jorge Cantu can’t quite cut it any more at first base with a .138 ISO and a poor walk rate, so this might just morph into a situation where Moreland starts and Cantu is a multi-position backup. With the injury concerns on a team that seems like a lock for the postseason, Moreland looks like he might get playing time either way.


Working Blue

Some thoughts on a couple of Dodgers to help wrap up the day. Please note that I will not actually be working blue during this article, because I like this gig and would prefer not to lose it.

Dodgers Closers

It’s been a wild ride, but it appears that Jonathan Broxton is back in the closers role. Joe Torre removed Broxton from the ninth inning almost two weeks ago, and after three dominant innings, Torre’s confidence in him was restored. He gave up two runs on Sunday, but he’s still a dominant pitcher on a .500 team, so don’t worry about him.

In his stay, Hong-Chih Kuo picked up a save on August 14th. Two days later, he gave up three runs and was charged with the loss, leading Torre away from the flame throwing lefty. Torre may have considered turning to Octavio Dotel, but he blew the game in the tenth inning a couple of days later.

The boys in blue have three hard throwing relievers who know how to strike batters out, and Torre isn’t afraid to turn to turn to any of them in high leverage situations. Broxton is the closer for now, but Dotel (36% owned) and Kuo (32% owned) aren’t bad guys to have on your roster.

Jay Gibbons | 0% Owned

A former two-and-a-half win player, Gibbons has been given a chance by the Dodgers. He destroyed Triple-A pitching this year, hitting 19 homers in under 400 plate appearances. While he hasn’t gotten too many chances in the bigs, he’s hit two homers in 22 trips to the dish. He had a great line-drive rate in the minors, and while it doesn’t feel like it, he’s only 33 years old. He could still be a major league contributor at the dish, and the Dodgers did well to give him a shot. While he won’t play everyday, keep an eye on Gibbons and add him if something goes down in the Dodgers outfield.


Recent Promotions: Maybin & Nova

A pair of recent call-ups, one recognizable, another not so much…

Cameron Maybin | OF | Marlins | 4% owned

In their never-ending pursuit of acquiring every available outfielder on the market, the Giants opened up a spot for the once highly touted Maybin by taking on Cody Ross. Maybin has certainly had his chances in the big leagues, with a .307 wOBA in 489 plate appearances spread across four seasons. It’s hard to believe that he’s still just 23, so we definitely can’t tag him as a bust yet.

For fantasy purposes, Maybin’s greatest value comes from steals, as he has the ability to swipe a half-dozen or more from here on out. He won’t help much in regular old head-to-head leagues, but if you’re in a roto scoring league, those extra steals will certainly help.

Ivan Nova | SP | Yankees | 1%

Nova pitched well in his first career start last night, limiting the Blue Jays to just two runs over 5.1 innings of work. He was yanked a bit early – just 73 pitches – because there was some alleged beanball nonsense going on and Joe Girardi didn’t want to subject his rookie righthander to anything like that. Seems kinda lame, but it is what it is. The Yankees have not committed a rotation spot to Nova going forward, but they have indicated that he will make a few more starts over the next few weeks as the team tries to keep their regular starters rested. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he takes Javy Vazquez’s job outright at some point, given the latter’s disintegrating stuff.

The 23-year-old righty won’t blow you away with sky high strikeout totals or microscopic ERA’s, instead he’s more of a matchup starter that post a low-4.00’s ERA and could steal you some wins given the lineup and bullpen around him. If you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league, keep an eye on Nova’s schedule and see what’s in store. The Yanks have both the White Sox and A’s coming up, hardly powerhouse offenses.

Update: The Yanks just announced that Vazquez is being skipped the next time through the rotation, and Nova will start on Sunday at the White Sox.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.


Third Base: August 24th

I wasn’t going to do one of these this week, but with A-Rod going down, here’s some thoughts on who you could pick up to replace him.

Wilson Betemit | Royals | 4% Owned

Dave talked about him yesterday, but he didn’t care enough to talk about his fantasy value. Betemit has always had the power, and just needed the playing time to be worth picking up. He’s playing every day now, so he’s worth your time. Due to his strikeout and low line drive rates, Betemit’s batting average won’t be pretty, so you have to hope his counting stats are good enough to make up for it. If you want to replace A-Rod’s power, pick him up.

Danny Valencia | Twins | 5% Owned

Valencia won’t give you much power, but he’ll keep your batting average at a respectable level. He’s a pretty low risk fill-in, so pick him up if that’s what you’re looking for.

Josh Bell | Orioles | 1% Owned

Bell is more of a high risk guy, who could really pay off if everything clicks. His bat was just OK in Triple-A this year, but after trading Tejada the Orioles wanted to see if he could handle the big show. He’s a switch-hitter with a great line drive stroke, but he strikes out too much to have a high batting average. He hasn’t shown a ton of power recently, and I don’t expect him to. He needs to work on his contact skills, but is a replacement option if you want to take a chance in a keeper league.

Don Kelly | Tigers | 1% Owned

Kelly has shown a ton of power recently, hitting 3 homers in his past 46 at-bats. The Tigers are giving the 30 year-old lefty some playing time, and he may be able to make the most of it. He’s eligible at first base, and in the outfield as well, so he can give your club some versatility. There isn’t much upside here, but he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if Betemit is taken.


Waiver Wire: August 23rd

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Josh Bell – Baltimore Orioles (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing special but since August 11, Bell has a .333 AVG with 2 HR and 6 RBIs in 10 games. While most of that damage came in just one game, the encouraging thing for Bell is the plate discipline he has showed recently. For the year, he has a 34.6 K% with the Orioles. But in his last 10 games he has 9 Ks in 33 ABs for a more manageable 27.3 K%. Bell should give you power potential with a solid AVG the rest of the way if he can keep the strikeouts under control.

Michael Brantley – Cleveland Indians (owned in 9 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

Another player whose overall numbers mask a recent stretch of productive play. Thanks to a .220 BABIP, Brantley carries a .212 AVG for the year. But in his last 12 games he has hit .327 with 12 R and 7 RBIs. Additionally, he has 2 HR and 2 SB in that stretch since being recalled from the minors. Brantley did sprain his ankle recently, but an MRI came back negative and he will not go on the disabled list.

Bobby Parnell – New York Mets (owned in 5 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

With Francisco Rodriguez done for the year, the closer spot is up for grabs in the Mets bullpen. So far, Hisanori Takahashi and Manny Acosta have notched saves in his absence. But Parnell is another option and could easily pick up a handful of saves the final six weeks of the season. Even if he does not get many saves, Parnell has the opportunity to help fantasy owners with a 9.36 K/9. Always a hard thrower, Parnell has been over 100 mph with his fastball recently. At 3.24, his ERA is higher than you would like from a setup guy as a fantasy player, but both his FIP (1.74) and xFIP (2.28) paint a different picture.


Starting Pitchers: August 23rd

Two youngsters that found themselves back in their team’s rotations this coming week…

Travis Wood | Reds | 31% owned

I think the Reds may have surprised everyone with all of their young pitching this year, and Wood is a big reason why. The southpaw has put up some strong peripherals (7.22 K/9, 2.35 BB/9) in his nine starts with the Reds, but his .211 BABIP isn’t going last forever. That said, it wouldn’t be unheard of if that level of luck stayed true right through the end of the season. Whether or not you want to risk on it is your call, but Wood is certainly servicable with the right matchups. He starts tomorrow at the Giants, and Cincy’s schedule features a whole lotta games against the Pirates, Padres, and Astros next month.

Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 2%

One phenom goes on the disabled list, another comes off it. Zimmermann returns after missing most of the season due to Tommy John surgery, and will make his first start of 2010 this coming Thursday. The righthander was outstanding in 16 starts for the Nats last year, striking out a touch more than a man per inning while walking just under three per nine, but some bad BABIP (.339) and LOB% (67.5%) luck had his ERA at 4.63 (3.59 FIP, 3.39 xFIP). I wouldn’t expect the same level of dominance this year this close to surgery, but the strikeouts should be there. With September call-ups right around the corner and some luck from an essentially league average defense, his ERA could end up in the 3.00’s in September. That Thursday start comes at home against the Cardinals.

Quick Notes: The Yankees recalled Ivan Nova to make a few starts as they rest their regular rotation in advance of the stretch run, and he’ll start against either the White Sox or Athletics next weekend/early next week. With the Yanks offense and bullpen, it’s a decent opportunity to steal a win … both Nick Blackburn (minors) and Rich Harden (DL) are back in their respective rotations, but proceed at your own risk.

Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.


Week 21 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Nick Blackburn

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Francisco Liriano
NYY – Dustin Moseley

With Liriano battling a tired arm, the Twins moved his start back three days, making Blackburn a two-start pitcher this week. Minnesota recalled Blackburn from Triple-A, where he made four starts and put up a 2.49 ERA. Blackburn was toiling in the minors because he had a 6.66 ERA in the majors. In 10 games during June and July, Blackburn was 1-6 with a 10.05 ERA. In that span he had allowed 11 HR in 43 IP and had 14 BB and 18 Ks. Additionally, batters had a .381 BABIP.

Previously Blackburn survived despite a low strikeout rate due to his miniscule walk rate and his ability to keep the ball in the park. All three metrics moved in the wrong direction this year. His K/BB ratio, which had been 2.46 and 2.39 the previous two seasons, sits at 1.30, which would be the second-worst mark in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

Similarly, Blackburn had consistent HR/9 marks the past two seasons. In 2008 he had a 1.07 mark and it was 1.09 last year. But in 2010, Blackburn has allowed 19 HR in 104 IP for a 1.64 HR/9. And this is with his FB% being a career-low 33.8 percent. Blackburn has a 14.1 HR/FB mark in 2010.

Not surprisingly, batters are hitting everything Blackburn throws to the plate. All four pitches he throws have a negative Pitch Type Value and batters have a 93.5 Contact% versus him, including a 96.2 Z-Contact%.

Blackburn had a sore knee during Spring Training and complained of a sore arm during the middle of April. But there were no injury reports during his rough patch in June and July.

His peripherals also show a bad pitcher, although one significantly better than what he has been in 2010. Blackburn’s FIP this year is 5.69 and his xFIP is 5.09 for the year. His velocity is right where it has been previously. The big problem is his command. Without overpowering stuff, Blackburn needs to be able to place his pitches precisely. He has not done that in 2010 and so far has paid the price.


Late Season Steals

Steals aren’t as tricky of a roto category as some would make it seem. Just like saves, if you want to be competitive in steals, all you have to do is choose to do so. Of course, you’re likely giving up a chance of homers and RBI, but it can be worth it. Make sure to check your league’s standings and determine which categories are within reach to help you climb the ladder. If you need steals the rest of the way, you’re in luck, because two speedsters are readily available.

Coco Crisp | Athletics | 28% Owned

Since returning from the DL, Crisp has been flying around the basepaths. Coming into Sunday’s action, he had stolen five bags in his last five games. He has 21 steals in under 225 plate appearances, and has only been caught twice. His career high for steals was back in 2007, when he nabbed 28 bases in 34 tries. If I were a betting man, I’d throw some gummy bears on Crisp setting a new career high during his shortened 2010 campaign. While his line-drive rate has been a problem, his BABIP is right in line with what we’d expect. A .285 average and a bundle of steals the rest of the way? Sign me up.

Eric Young Jr. | Rockies | 3% Owned

One of the best burglers in the minors is finally getting another chance to prove his major league worth. From 2006-2009, Young never stole less than 45 bases in a year, even reaching as high as 87 steals in A-ball during ‘06. During all of those season, he never batted lower than .290, either. Like Crisp, Young’s BABIP is where close to where xBABIP expects it to be. But unlike Crisp, Young’s batting average won’t help your team. Young’s second base eligibility makes him a nice replacement option for Dustin Pedroia owners, and he should probably be picked up in every keeper league deeper than a standard league.


Waiver Wire: August 22nd

Wilson Betemit, Royals (Owned in 2% of Yahoo Leagues)

It has been an awfully long time since Betemit signed (illegally) with the Atlanta Braves as a 14-year-old Dominican shortstop in 1996. He was once Atlanta’s organizational golden child, ranking as eighth-best prospect in the game (according to Baseball America) prior to 2002. Betemit has since donned Dodger blue and pinstripes of both the Bronx and South Side variety. Now a 28-year-old with dubious defensive qualifications, the switch-hitter is keeping third base warm for Mike Moustakas following the Alberto Callaspo trade.

In 175 plate appearances for K.C., Betemit has a .342/.423/.559 triple-slash and a .424 wOBA. He’s not gonna keep a .421 BABIP, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit at a level that’s slightly above the big league average. In 1,450 career PA, Betemit has batted .268/.336/.447, which translates to a .336 wOBA and a 106 wRC+. He’ll occasionally take a seat against left-handed pitching, and his D (-13 UZR/150 in 1,885 innings at 3B) won’t endear him to Ned Yost. But ZiPS projects Betemit for a moderately useful .266/.329/.422 for the rest of the season.

Homer Bailey, Reds (8%)

With Mike Leake bullpen-bound in an effort to limit his innings and Johnny Cueto serving a suspension for kicking Jason LaRue in the head during a skirmish with the Cardinals, Bailey got a spot-start for Cincy on August 15th. The 24-year-old whiffed four Fish and walked none, tossing six scoreless frames. Bailey got another start versus the Dodgers on the 20th and shined once again (7 IP, 6/2 K/BB, 1 run).

Few players have frustrated fantasy players more than the seventh pick in the 2004 draft, and Bailey missed nearly three months with right shoulder inflammation this season. But when on the bump, he has performed decently — in 63.2 innings pitched, he’s got 7.21 K/9, 3.25 BB/9 and a 4.35 xFIP. It remains to be seen whether the change sticks, but Bailey has displayed better control and is getting ahead in the count more often (61.5 first pitch strike percentage, compared to a mid-fifties mark from 2007-2009 and a 58-59% MLB average). There are no guarantees here, given Homer’s injury issues and the possibility that he does get bumped to the ‘pen. Still, he’s making progress and possesses more upside than most waiver wire fodder.


Interesting Week 21 Two-Start Pitchers

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

R.A. Dickey – It’s been a great season overall for the 35-year-old Dickey but he has been outstanding in Citi Field, where he has a 5-1 record with a 1.22 ERA. With two home starts this week, Dickey should be in everyone’s lineup.

Jason Hammel – Since July 16th, Hammel is 1-4 with a 4.89 ERA. But six of those seven starts have come on the road. In Coors Field this year, Hammel is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA. With two home starts this week, look for Hammel to get back in the win column.

Hiroki Kuroda – The past two months, Kuroda is 1-6. Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has posted lower-than-average HR/FB rates. But in his last few starts, he has allowed 3 HR in 25 IP. This week he has road starts in Milwaukee and Colorado, two of the three best HR parks in the National League. Put Kuroda on the bench this week.

Colby Lewis – In his last six starts, Lewis is 0-5 yet his ERA has dropped five points to 3.37 for the season. He gets two home starts this week, where he is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA for the year. Look for Lewis to pick up at least one win this week and make sure he is in your lineup.

Clayton Richard – He has been piling up victories recently despite not pitching all that well. But his last four starts have all been on the road. Richard gets two home starts this week and the friendly confines of Petco should help out. Richard should be in your active roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, J. Johnson, T. Hudson, Hamels, Cain, Liriano, Pavano, Floyd, Lackey, E. Santana, Myers, Morrow, Shields, Volquez, G. Gonzalez, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Kazmir, Blanton, Guthrie, Norris, Porcello, Bonderman, Fister, Harden, Moseley, Ohlendorf, Bush, Lannan, Chen, Rzepczynski, R. Lopez, Lohse, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Hughes – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.417 WHIP (2 starts)
Leake – Advised to sit. W, 8.38 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.862 WHIP (2)
Mazzaro – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)
Padilla – Advised to start. W, 11.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.929 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. W, 1.93 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)