Because the rankings really haven’t changed since the last time we spoke, it’s time to take a different look at the first base position.

Adam LaRoche | Diamondbacks | 48% owned

LaRoche is a notorious second half hitter, and I expect him to keep that streak alive this year. He might be dealt to a contender who needs a bench or situational bat at the deadline, so there is some risk involved with picking up LaRoche. His high strikeout rate will make it hard for him to raise his batting average, but he could come close to hitting 30 jacks this year. While first half and second half splits aren’t always the most reliable, LaRoche has proved me wrong too many times before. Give him a shot if you have a bench spot open in standard leagues.

Russell Branyan | Mariners | 12% owned

Even with the acquisition of Justin Smoak, Branyan will get playing time in Seattle. For the moment, he’s been playing DH while Milton Bradley sits with a sore knee. But, when Milton comes back, the team will have to decide what to do, and someone will be out of a gig (or Michael Saunders will). I doubt the M’s will bench Branyan, and as Pat Andriola notes, he is a candidate to be dealt at the deadline to a contender looking for some 1B or DH help. Wait and see what develops after the break, but Branyan is a good bet for power as long as he’s in the lineup.

Travis Ishikawa | Giants | 1% owned

Once Bengie Molina was dealt to the Rangers, Ishikawa became the everyday first baseman. I’ve always liked the guy (he’s from the Seattle area) and think he has the skills to be an average MLB first baseman. He’s been on fire, and while the All-Star break may cool him off, he’s looking great so far. In 71 plate appearances, Ishikawa is hitting 35% line drives, keeping the strikeouts down, and slugging .538. He’s going to be available in your league, so give him a shot in deep leagues if you want to improve your team’s AVG.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues. And yes, I stole this format from Axisa.

Since we are around the halfway point of the season, I have decided to look into which pitchers have ERA’s that differ the most considering their FIPs, xFIPS and BABIP. I used all 3 values helps to find out truly lucky or unlucky pitchers have been this season and the reasons why (i.e. high home run rates or low BABIP).

To start with I took all the pitchers that have pitched over 20 innings so far this season. From this group, I averaged 3 numbers. ERA-FIPs (E-F) is already provided here at Fangraphs. Also, I easily calculated the ERA-xFIPS for the second value.

For the third value, I did a calculation of expect ERA using the batter’s BABIP from this quick calculation of Tom Tango.

The BAPIP ERA formula ends up working out to be:

(((0.300-BABIP)*(Total Batters Faced)) * 0.75) + Earned Runs)/(IP/9)

Explanation of constants (these 2 values can be adjusted if a someone wants to calculate the values themselves):

0.300 = league average BABIP
0.75 = Run value for an extra hit

With all three values calculated, I averaged them into a value determining how much a pitcher’s ERA differentiates from their expected ERA.

I have collected at the pitchers and posted them in this following Google Spreadsheet.

Note: For ease, I will use pERA as the projected ERA considering the pitcher’s FIPs, xFIPs and BABIP

Here are some highlights:

Chad Qualls – (ERA = 8.60, pERA = 4.03) – Chad is by far the unluckiest pitcher so far this season. He has not be exactly lights out, but no pitcher can be good with a BAPIP of 0.468.

Jose Valverde – (ERA = 0.92, pERA = 3.13) – No real surprise that a pitcher can’t mainly a sub 1 ERA. He got to the low ERA with a 0.169 BABIP and giving up only 1 home run so far this season. Jose is actually is striking out less and walking more batters than Chad Qualls.

Tim Hudson – (ERA = 2.30, pERA = 4.04) – Tim’s ERA has been helped in that he has 0.232 BABIP. He has needed a low BABIP since he has not been striking many people at all with a K/9 of 4.5 to go along with a BB/9 of 3.2

Francisco Liriano – (ERA = 3.86, pERA = 2.69) – Most people would complain too much about a starter with a 3.86 ERA, Mr Liriano looks like he should be doing better. He has a great K/9 of 9.8 and BB/9 of 2.5 while allowing only 2 home runs so far this season.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Chris Iannetta – Colorado Rockies (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Iannetta will never have a good AVG and he needs a manager who appreciates his OBP and SLG skills. Jim Tracy is probably not the ideal manager for Iannetta but at least he is back in the majors now and getting some playing time. In his last seven games, Iannetta has 4 HR, 6 R and 8 RBIs. Unfortunately it has taken him 16 days to log those seven games. Due to his poor AVG and sporadic playing time, Iannetta is not an option in all formats. But in any league that starts two catchers, he is worth a flyer.

Vin Mazzaro – Oakland A’s (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

The estimators are not sold on Mazzaro, as he has a 4.86 xFIP and a 5.11 FIP. But in his last four games, Mazzaro has hurled Quality Starts and he has a 2.30 ERA and a 1.134 WHIP with 2 W in that span. His velocity is down some from a year ago, but Mazzaro is having better success with his fastball in 2010. He also features plus pitches with his slider and curve.

Jonathan Venters – Atlanta Braves (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Billy Wagner having a tremendous year, there is virtually no chance of Venters getting many save opportunities in 2010. But because of his strikeouts, ERA and WHIP, he still has a chance to help fantasy owners. The lefty Venters throws in the mid-90s and has a nice 9.29 K/9. He has a 1.30 ERA, but his xFIP is over two runs higher as he has yet to allow a HR this season. Finally, Venters checks in with a 1.10 WHIP. The WHIP is the shakiest of all, as he has a 4.54 BB/9. But Venters has great stuff, as he complements his heater with a wicked slider. He gets lots of strikeouts and lots of ground balls (63.6 GB%). He’s even picked up 3 W on the season and has a chance to vulture some more going forward with Atlanta’s strong pen.

There won’t be too many rotation spots changing this week for obvious reasons, but here are a few notes anyway…

Jorge De La Rosa | Rockies | 56% owned

Last year’s breakout lefty had been out since late April with a flexor band strain in his middle finger before returning last week. The Padres knocked him around (seven runs in 4.1 IP), but I wouldn’t let that sway my outlook much. JDLR is still a super-high strikeout pitcher (10.54 K/9 in 2010, six last start), but his shaky control means he’ll never dominate the ERA and WHIP categories. (R) ZiPS projects a 4.80 ERA (4.13 FIP) with 8.10 K/9 the rest of the way, but a little LOB% luck (62.2% this year, 68.5% over the last three years) could have his ERA in the low-4.00’s. His first start after the break will come in Cincinnati on Saturday.

Daniel Hudson | White Sox | 7% owned

David Golebiewski already took an in-depth look at Hudson, so I’m going to cop out and refer you to that. Hudson is taking the place of Jake Peavy, who is done for the season after tearing a lat muscle right off the bone. Ouch. He’ll first start of the second half comes in Seattle, but not until next Monday.

Chris Tillman | Orioles | 2% owned

Back in the bigs after a rather disastrous four start stint with the O’s earlier this season (15 R, 8 BB, 7 K in 15 IP), Tillman twirled a gem on Saturday, holding the Rangers to two hits and one unearned run in 7.1 IP. Tillman’s strikeout rate has never been the same since getting his first taste of the bigs last year, going from 9.94 K/9 before his ML debut to 5.89 since (majors and minors). Phil Hughes went through something similar when he debuted, and it had more to do with rookie jitters (nibbling instead of attacking hitters) than decline in stuff. I’d expect Tillman to improve his strikeout rate in the future, but that probably won’t come this year. He has value in a deep keeper league, but not much more than that.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.

The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.

Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.

Last season, Pablo Sandoval was a one-man wrecking crew. The switch-hitting, ambidextrous free-swinger crushed pitchers for a .330/.387/.566 triple-slash in 633 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA and a 145 wRC+. With +34.9 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs during his first full season in the majors, Sandoval placed among the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. He entered 2010 as a fantasy darling — according to KFFL, the Panda had an ADP of 37.

Sandoval’s pre-season projections expected some regression in terms of his power output (.226 ISO in 2009) and BABIP (.350), but owners still had every right to expect big offensive numbers:

ZiPS: .320/.368/.516, .383 wOBA, .196 ISO, .342 BABIP
CHONE: .325/.368/.526, .385 wOBA, .201 ISO, .348 BABIP

Yet, Sandoval’s lumber has been lacking. He’s got a tepid .266/.325/.387 line in 366 PA, with a .307 wOBA and an 88 wRC+. Pablo’s usually-thunderous bat has been -5.3 runs below average. What gives?

Little has changed in terms of his “plate discipline” numbers. Sandoval swung at 41.7 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone in 2009, and 43.8% in 2010. The overall MLB average for O-Swing has increased, likely due to the way that pitches are charted, but Sandoval’s O-Swing compared to the big league average hasn’t shifted much. His O-Swing was 166 percent of the MLB average in ’09, and 153 percent of the average in 2010. Pablo’s also making contact at about the same rate as usual — 83% (83.3% career average, 81% MLB average). His first pitch strike percentage is 63.4% (62.8% career average, 58% MLB average). Sandoval’s walk and strikeout rates are exactly the same as last year — 8.2% and 14.5%, respectively.

The big changes are in his BABIP and pop. Sandoval has always posted a high BABIP (.339 as a prospect, according to Minor League Splits) and, as the pre-season projections showed, CHONE and ZiPS expected another robust BABIP. Instead, Sandoval’s getting hits on balls put in play just 29.2 percent of the time (.292 BABIP). Has he been unlucky? The answer would appear to be yes. Pablo is hitting fewer line drives (18.6% in ’09, 16.1% this year) and is popping the ball up a bit more (7.9 IF/FB% in ’09, 10.2% in ’10). But even so, his expected BABIP, based on his rate of homers, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls, infield flies and ground balls, is .314. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .326 BABIP from Sandoval.

The more peculiar development is his mild power production. The Panda has a .121 ISO, with just 5.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard (14% last season). Here’s Sandoval’s performance by batted ball type in 2010, compared to 2009:

You’ll note the downturn in his ground ball and line drive BABIP. But Sandoval’s power decline on his fly balls and liners hit has been dramatic as well. In 2009, he had a .528 ISO on fly balls, while the NL average was .371. This season, he’s got a .322 ISO on fly balls (.367 NL average). Pablo posted a .322 ISO on line drives in ’09, but just .153 in 2010 (the NL average is .256 both seasons).

The chances of Sandoval faring so poorly on balls put in play and hitting for such little power in the second half are remote. The Panda’s rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .305/.357/.484 line, with his wOBA climbing to .366 and his ISO increasing to .179. CHONE projects a more potent performance — .318/.363/.511 (.193 ISO).

This would be a good time to buy low on Sandoval. I wouldn’t bet that a 23-year-old with a history of mashing has suddenly forgotten how to drive the ball.

On Saturday night, Cincinnati Reds lefty Travis Wood nearly became the third starting pitcher to twirl a perfect game during the 2010 season (well, technically fourth, but let’s not beat a dead horse). The 23-year-old went toe-to-toe with Roy Halladay, who achieved perfection on May 29th against the Marlins. Wood punched out eight, walked none and surrendered just one hit (a double to Carlos Ruiz to lead off the 9th) while going nine frames. Despite that superb effort, the Phillies prevailed in 11 innings.

Wood went to his fastball early and often — according to BrooksBaseball.net, he threw his 90 MPH four-seamer (topping out at 93 MPH) on 77 of his 109 pitches (71 percent), getting a strike with the pitch 71 percent of the time. He also mixed in some high-80’s cutters, low-80’s changeups and low-70’s curves. Overall, Wood threw strikes 68 percent of the time.

So, who is this guy, and what can we expect from him moving forward? Let’s take a closer look.

An Arkansas prep player, Wood was selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2005 draft. The 5-11, 165 pound port sider had a strong college commitment to Arkansas, but Cincy persuaded him to turn pro for $600,000. Wood’s size and delivery (Baseball America said he had some recoil at the end) scared some scouts, but his fastball piqued their interest. Here’s part of BA’s scouting report from 2005:

Wood is a long-term project, albeit an intriguing one because there aren’t many lefthanders who can reach 95 mph. His fastball sat at 88-91 mph for much of the spring, but he started making more frequent forays into the mid-90s as the draft drew closer. Wood isn’t tall, but he generates his velocity with a quick arm and athleticism. Wood hasn’t shown much aptitude for spinning a breaking ball, and his curveball ranges from below-average to decent. For the most part, he just rears back and blows fastballs by inferior competition.

Wood made his debut that summer, putting hitters to shame in 48.2 innings split between the Rookie Level Pioneer and Gulf Coast leagues (12.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.29 FIP). In 2006, he moved up to the Low-A Midwest League and continued to miss lots of bats — 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 4.01 FIP in 140 frames. After the season, BA noted that his low-to-mid-90’s fastball from high school was largely absent (he sat 87-91 MPH), but his changeup had developed into a true weapon. His breaking ball, on the other hand, remained a work in progress.

Unfortunately, Wood wouldn’t get much of a chance to improve in 2007. Bothered by a sore shoulder, Wood saw his fastball velocity dip into the mid-80’s at times, generally sitting in the high-80’s. He logged just 46.1 innings in the High-A Florida State League, with 10.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.37 FIP. Baseball America, which rated him as the third-best prospect in the Reds’ system before 2006 and number six prior to 2007, dropped him down to 21st leading up to the 2008 campaign.

2008 did little to redeem his standing within the organization. Opening the season back in the FSL, Wood performed decently — he whiffed 7.9 per nine innings, walked 4.1 per nine and served up 0.4 HR/9. His FIP in 46.2 innings was 3.48, and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94. But a promotion to the Double-A Southern League proved difficult. His K rate declined (6.5 K/9), his walk rate ballooned to 5.4 BB/9 and he gave up a homer per nine frames. Wood’s ERA was a macabre 7.09 in 80 innings. While he wasn’t near that bad, a 4.92 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was nothing special. BA booted him off of Cincinnati’s top 30 list altogether.

Last year, the Reds sent him back to the Southern League. Wood responded with 7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 0.15 HR/9 in 119 IP. His adjusted FIP was 3.98. Following a promotion to the Triple-A International League, Wood struck out 5.9 per nine, issued 3 BB/9 and had 0.7 HR/9. In 48.2 innings, his adjusted FIP was 4.23. Leading up to 2010, BA jumped Wood back up to seventh on the Reds’ list of top farm talents, saying that he remained healthy, regained his 88-91 MPH fastball velocity and added a cutter to his repertoire.

Back at Louisville this season, Wood thrived. Prior to his July 1st big league debut, Wood had 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 3.00 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP in 98 IP. After last night’s masterpiece, he’s got a 17/5 K/BB in 20.2 MLB innings, with a 3.99 xFIP. It’s a very small sample, but hitters have chased Wood’s stuff out of the zone 34.3% of the time (28.6% MLB average).

Before you get too excited about a rookie starter zooming out of the game and nearly making history, it’s important to remember that Wood has long been regarded as more of a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation-type. BA mentioned that some scouts question his long-term durability, while John Sickels said Wood “looks more like a four/five starter based on his stuff.” He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 41 GB%) who’ll make his home starts in a park that, according to the Bill James Handbook, increased home run production by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009.

Per Minor League Splits, Wood’s performance at Louisville this season equates to a 4.58 major league FIP, with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. CHONE’s rest-of-season-projection is similar — a 4.58 neutralized ERA, with 7.4 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. Should Wood remain in the major league rotation, those forecasts look about right to me — near perfecto aside, he’s more of a serviceable big league arm than a future star.

On the surface, Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto is busting out in 2010. The 24-year-old, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for a modest $3,500, dominated minor leagues hitters to the tune of 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a low-three’s FIP. Cueto rated as a top prospect on the basis of his sharp fastball/slider combo, and his major league ERA has fallen three seasons in a row — 4.81 in 2008, 4.41 in 2009 and a sparkling 3.42 this year. The sterling track record on the farm, the admiration he earned from scouts, the linear improvement in his MLB ERA — all of these signs point to a star emerging in Cincy.

I’m not sold, though. Take a look at some of Cueto key peripheral stats over the 2008-2010 seasons. I highlighted the most notable changes in, appropriately enough, red:

Cueto’s walk rate has fallen over the years, but his strikeout rate has declined considerably as well. He handed out a free pass to batters in 8.8% of their plate appearances in 2008, 8.2% in 2009 and 7.8% in 2010 (8.8% MLB average, according to Baseball-Reference). He’s doing a particularly good job of locating his 93 MPH fastball — According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Cueto’s throwing the pitch for a strike 64.9% of the time this year (62-64% MLB average).

So, his control has gone from average to above-average. However, his SO/PA numbers have dropped a good deal — 20.6% in ’08, 17.8% in ’09 and 17% in ’10 (17.8% MLB average). Cueto has gotten in fewer 0-and-2 counts (24% in ’08, 19% in ’09 and 17% this year; the MLB average is 22%), and he’s struggling to put away batters when he gets into two-strike counts:

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to that of the league average. One-hundred is average, while anything above 100 means that the pitcher is worse than most in that area. As you can see, Cueto has been between 23 and 37 percent worse than the average NL pitcher when he gets in two-strike counts.

In those two-strike situations, Cueto goes to his mid-80’s slider often:

Baseball America once dubbed that slider the best in the Reds’ system, but hitters haven’t been as impressed. Cueto’s breaking ball has been whiffed at just 10.4% of the time overall in 2010 (13.6% MLB average). He’s throwing the pitch for a strike 56% (63.4% MLB average). Cueto’s best whiff pitch, relative to the league average, is his fastball — 8.8% (the MLB average is 5-6%).

As Cueto’s expected FIP (xFIP) shows, the pared-down walk rate and lower punch out rate have essentially canceled each other out. His xFIP this season is over a run higher than his actual ERA. The main reasons that he’s got a pristine ERA and an ace-like win-loss record (8-2)? A very high rate of stranding base runners and a plummeting home run per fly ball rate. Chances are, Cueto won’t escape danger quite so adeptly in the second half of the season. He’s not pitching any better with men on base…

…and his HR/FB percentage is well below the typical 11% range for pitchers (Cueto’s career HR/FB% is 11.2). Cueto’s home, Great American Ballpark, actually increased homers per fly ball hit by 14 percent compared to a neutral venue over the period of 2006-2009. If Cueto had surrendered homers per fly ball hit at an average rate on the road (11 percent) and 12.5 percent at home (1.14 times the league average), he would have given up 16 home runs so far (1.3 HR/9) instead of his actual total of nine (0.73 HR/9).

Currently, Cueto throws his fastball for strikes and gets a solid number of whiffs with the pitch. However, his breaking ball lags behind, both in terms control and getting hitters to come up empty. It’s worth noting that he has gone to his changeup more often this season. It has been average in terms of strikes gotten (60.8%, 60.7% MLB average) but below-average in getting whiffs (11%, 12.6% MLB average). Right now, he doesn’t have a second pitch that can put away batters.

The purpose of this post is not to sharply criticize Johnny Cueto, or to suggest that he won’t reach ace status one day. The purpose is to point out that he’s not there yet. Fantasy players run the risk of falling prey to confirmation bias with a player like Cueto — he was supposed to be a star, and a quick glance at his numbers makes it seem as though he has reached that level. But, upon further inspection, Cueto’s still got work to do.

Chris Davis, Rangers (Owned in seven percent of Yahoo leagues)

Justin Smoak’s Seattle-bound, as the 2008 first-round pick is the prime player acquired by the M’s in the six-player deal sending Cliff Lee to Arlington. That clears the path to big league playing time for Davis, who’ll take over first base duties for the first-place Rangers. Is the third time a charm for Davis, or will his bat fall flat again?

Texas’ fifth-round pick in the ’06 draft has bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A Oklahoma City over the past two seasons. The Rangers handed him an everyday spot both years, but Davis’ hacking and contact issues led to demotions in July of ’09 and April of 2010. In the majors, the 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter has crushed the ball when he has gotten a hold of it — he’s got a .221 ISO in 792 career plate appearances, with 18.6% of his fly balls ending up in the cheap seats. His plate discipline, by contrast, has been putrid.

Davis has walked in just 6.2% of his PA, while whiffing 34.6%. His strike zone is huge — here are Davis’ outside swing percentages over the 2008-2010 seasons, divided by the MLB average that season:

2008: 1.47
2009: 1.35
2010: 1.15

Keep in mind that the 2010 figure is based on just 56 PA. Chasing so many pitches off the plate, Davis has often gotten behind in the count. His career first pitch strike percentage is 62.9, while the MLB average is 58-59%.

Contact has also been a big issue — Davis has connected 65.5% of the time that he pulls the trigger overall (81% MLB average), including 74.7% of the time he swings at an in-zone offering (88% MLB average). Over the past three calendar years, he’s got the third-lowest total contact rate and the second-lowest Z-contact rate in the majors (minimum 500 PA).

With plus pop but also a tendency to swing at anything from Lubbock to Houston, Davis has been a Mike Jacobs doppelganger to this point — his big league career triple-slash is .253/.301/.474, with a .330 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA that’s two percent below average (98 wRC+). Happily, the 24-year-old has thumped pitchers with the RedHawks. In 293 PCL PA, Davis batted .354/.403/.555 (his career line in Triple-A is .341/.407/.571 in 614 PA). On the positive side, he hit for power (.201 ISO with Oklahoma City in 2010) and whiffed less than a quarter of the time (24.3 K%). However, that line was boosted by .434 BABIP, and he still wasn’t working many walks (7.8 BB%).

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects Davis to bat .244/.297/.461. CHONE anticipates a .269/.319/.470 line. Davis’ ability to drive the ball makes him an intriguing add in AL-only leagues, but he’s going to have to tighten his strike zone to finally stick at the highest level.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (16%)

The 20-year-old lefty might not garner quite the same prospect praise these days — where once he cracked the mid-90’s with his fastball, Bumgarner now sits around 90 MPH. His secondary stuff (a low-80’s slider and changeup, as well as a low-70’s curve) remains a work in progress, too. That being said, he’s still worthy of consideration in NL-only formats.

Bumgarner burst on to the scene in 2008, using his high-octane heat to post rates of 10.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 1.71 FIP in 141.2 IP. According to Minor League Splits, Bumgarner’s park-and-lucked adjusted FIP in the Low-A South Atlantic League was 2.99. With his velocity on the wane in 2009, the North Carolina prep product’s K rate took a tumble — in 131.1 innings spent mostly in the Double-A Eastern League (he opened the year in the High-A Cal League), Bumgarner had 6.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted 4.42 FIP.

He got a late-season cameo with the Giants, but Bumgarner opened 2010 in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Logging 82.2 innings, the 6-4, 215 pound southpaw punched out 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 2.4 per nine and had a 4.31 park-and-luck adjusted FIP. Madison has made three starts for San Fran so far, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and a 4.19 xFIP in 22 IP.

Any owner considering a Bumgarner pick up will need to keep his workload in mind — he has thrown 104.2 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2010, just 37 frames away from his previous career high established in the Sally League in ’08. The Giants could occasionally skip him or push his starts back. ZiPS thinks he’ll be useful when he does take the mound (5.94 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 4.01 FIP). CHONE is less sanguine — a 4.98 neutralized ERA, with 6.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. Perhaps Bumgarner isn’t, at least at the moment, the power pitcher we anticipated. But he still could be an above-average MLB starter.

The Hot
Joakim Soria, Kansas City
Mr. Soria had a fine week by recording four saves in as many tries. He was touched up for a run and walked two batters but he struck out six. His numbers have been very consistent over the past two years so we pretty know what to expect for Soria; he’s a top-tier closer when KC gets him enough save opportunities. This season, he’s entering the break with 25 saves.

Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay
Like Soria, Soriano recorded four saves over the past seven days. He also gave up four hits and two walks with three Ks. It’s early July and the veteran has almost surpassed his career high in saves (27), which was set last year. Interestingly, his strikeout rate is down significantly over last season (12.13 to 7.99 K/9) but his walk rate is much improved (3.21 to 1.93 BB/9). With that said, he’s also benefited from some luck as his 1.65 ERA is much shinier than his xFIP (4.01).

The Not
Neftali Feliz, Texas
Feliz, like Francisco Cordero in the NL, is one of the hardest worked relievers in the Majors and both started to slip this past week. Feliz posted a 15.42 ERA in three games, although he was 2-for-2 in saves. He gave up three hits and two walks in 2.2 innings of work. Feliz has ridden his fastball for much of the season, as both his curveball and changeup have pretty much been neutral pitches for him in terms of value.

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore
Simon gave up just one hit in 4.0 innings this past week but he walked three and gave up two runs, including a homer. He went 2-for-3 in save opportunities. Simon is an OK second closer and a pretty good third option but you don’t want to rely on him too heavily because he is inconsistent.

Keep an Eye On…
Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay
Rafael Soriano hasn’t shown many cracks in his armor this season, but the veteran also has a history of injury problems. With that in mind, Benoit is a great pitcher to keep an eye on in mixed leagues and he might even be worth picking up now in deep AL-only leagues. The former Ranger had a great week by striking out six batters in 3.0 innings; he also did not give up a walk or a hit. On the year, he has an xFIP of 1.85 and a strikeout rate of 13.32 K/9.