Archive for May, 2010

Rankings Update: First Base

Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the first base rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”

The Machine
Albert Pujols (.403, .452)

Only a 14.3% HR/FB rate for Albert. Going to have to work for a 40-HR season, according to ZiPS.

Big Ballerz
Miguel Cabrera (.449, .419)
Mark Teixeira (.341, .369)
Ryan Howard (.347, .387)
Prince Fielder (.368, .395)

Teix and Howard switch spots, but this group stays intact.

Not Quite Elite
Joey Votto (.392, .388)
Adrian Gonzalez (.346, .375)
Justin Morneau (.486, .421)
Kevin Youkilis (.430, .405)

If Gonzalez could get his O-Swing% back down to his 2009 rate (22.7% vs. 29.6% in 2010), that would be swell. Youkilis has the lowest K% of his career, and his HR/FB% is down to his career average. However, he has been 4%-6% above his current career average the past two years, so he may see a couple extra HR’s as the year progresses. Morneau has a .486 wOBA! Holy crap.

Pure…Unadulterated…Power
Kendry Morales (.342, .352)
Adam Dunn (.400, .400)
Paul Konerko (.425, .386)

ZiPS says Konerko is on a 34 HR pace, which would be the most since he hit 35 in 2006.

Writers Block
Billy Butler (.375, .368)
Adam LaRoche (.353, .375)
Carlos Pena (.292, .356)
James Loney (.361, .357)

LaRoche has an increased FB rate, and a decreased HR/FB%. Could we see more power later on in the year?

Switch Hitting Brigade
Derrek Lee (.318, .355)
Garrett Jones (.354, .360)
Justin Smoak (.319, .327)
Lance Berkman (.357, .388)
Nick Swisher (.399, .370)

Smoak may not be putting up great wOBA or batting average numbers quite yet, but what are the odds he has a .186 BABIP with a 23.8 LD% for the rest of the year? Also, Derrek Lee falls all the way from 12 to 17. I think I’ve given him a fair shot to put up numbers, but he isn’t producing this year. On a kinder note, Swisher debuts at #22. Before the season began, I would have thought you were crazy to suggest Nick Swisher would be on this list. Now, it’s reality.

The Rest of ‘Em
Luke Scott (.349, .354)
Todd Helton (.315, .353)
David Ortiz (.326, .366)
Ike Davis (.360, .303)

Making his debut this week is the one, the only, Ike Davis. Also noteworthy is Helton moving from 20 to 23, and he may be done as a fantasy producer in non-OBP leagues.


Brennan Boesch Mashing

On April 23rd, Brennan Boesch stepped into a major league batter’s box for the first time and proceeded to rip the first Rich Harden offering he saw for a double. Since then, the 25-year-old Tigers rookie hasn’t stopped swinging or making loud contact. In just 74 plate appearances, Boesch’s bashing has been worth +7.4 park-adjusted Batting Runs. Where did this guy come from, and what can we expect from him going forward?

Detroit snagged Boesch out of California in the third round of the 2006 draft. A 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter, Boesch fit the physical description of a power hitter but confused scouts with uneven performances for the Golden Bears. Here’s Baseball America’s scouting report leading up to the draft:

He has what scouts look for in a prospect, but while he had set a new career high with 10 home runs, his slugging percentage was actually lower than it was in 2005, and scouts had been disappointed by his overall performance. He’s been erratic, at times showing above-average bat speed and the ability to catch up to good fastballs, and at others showing a long swing that short-circuits his power. His hands are dead at the start of his swing, often keeping him from loading up and generating power.

The Tigers sent Boesch to the short-season New York-Penn that summer, where he hit .291/.344/.435 in 317 plate appearances. He walked in 6.6 percent of his PA and punched out 14.4 percent, posting a .144 Isolated Power.

Boesch ranked 16th on BA’s list of top Tigers prospects prior to the 2007 season, but he dipped to 24th before 2008 and fell off the list entirely leading up to the 2009 campaign. In the Low-A Midwest League in ’07, he batted a weak .267/.297/.378 in 542 PA, drawing ball four 4.2 percent and striking out 15.8 percent. Boesch’s ISO fell to a middle infielder-like .111, with BA saying that he “lacked the plus power expected from a corner outfielder.”

His 2008 season was little better: a .249/.310/.379 triple-slash in 461 PA in the High-A Florida State League, with a 7.8 percent walk rate, a 21.6 percent K rate and a .129 ISO. The MWL and the FSL are difficult offensive environments, but college-trained outfielders hacking and hitting singles aren’t going to elicit much excitement from talent evaluators.

In 2009, Boesch showed an offensive pulse for the first time in pro ball. Bumped up to the Double-A Eastern League, he hit .275/.318/.510 in 571 PA. Boesch remained aggressive (5.8 BB%) and his strikeout rate climbed to 24.1 percent, but his ISO shot up to .235. Baseball America rated Boesch as the 26th-best prospect in Detroit’s system this past offseason.

After a hot start in the Triple-A International League (.379/.455/.621 in 66 PA), Boesch got the big league call and has logged time in the corner outfield and DH spots. He owns a .380/.392/.676 line, with three home runs and a .296 ISO. Boesch’s plate approach, however, leaves much to be desired.

So far, his strike zone has been the size of Lake Michigan. Boesch has chased 50.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone, highest among hitters with at least 70 plate appearances. He’s out-hacking the master of junk ball swinging, Vladimir Guerrero (49.6 O-Swing%). On pitches within the zone, Boesch has taken a cut 84.6 percent. Only Vlad (86.4 Z-Swing%) has swung at in-zone pitches more often. Boesch’s overall 66.4 percent swing rate bests The Impaler’s 65.2 percent mark.

Guerrero might be able to get away with swinging at everything. Boesch isn’t Vlad, though. That 2.7 percent walk rate is going to be an issue once his .421 batting average on balls in play comes back down to Earth.

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected Boesch for a .230/.261/.364 line. That seems pessimistic, but it is important to keep in mind that we’re talking about a mid-twenties prospect with a career .273/.319/.434 minor league line. He has an ultra-aggressive philosophy, and holds a .247/.294/.364 minor league triple-slash against lefty pitching. Boesch isn’t a hot-shot youngster so much as he’s a righty masher with a low OBP and problems with same-handed hurlers.


Ricky Romero on a Roll

Not that long ago, Ricky Romero was known to Blue Jays fans as the answer to the following trivia question: “who did Toronto take with the sixth pick in the 2005 draft instead of Troy Tulowitzki?”

While Tulo established himself as a top prospect at a premium position, Romero posted so-so-numbers on the farm. The Cal State Fullerton lefty struck out seven batters per nine innings, while walking 3.8 per nine and posting a 48.6 percent ground ball rate. Prior to 2009: Baseball America gave Romero the following assessment:

Late bloomer or bust? That’s the question surrounding Romero, whom the Blue Jays selected sixth overall in 2005 and signed for a club-record $2.4 million. He has spent the bulk of the past three seasons in Double-A and been passed by several lefties in the system…Romero still needs to show more consistency to reach his ceiling as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

While there are clearly worse scenarios than ending up with a first-rounder who’s a mid-to-back-end starter, the Jays likely had higher aspirations. Since that scouting report was published, however, Romero has taken his game to a different level.

In 2009, Romero turned in a quality rookie season. Tossing 178 innings, he posted rates of 7.13 K/9, 3.99 BB/9 and had a 54 percent ground ball rate. His expected FIP (xFIP) was 4.09. This year? He’s pitching like a bona fide ace. In 56.1 frames, the 25-year-old has 9.43 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, a 55.9 GB% and a 3.12 xFIP that ranks 7th among starters with at least 30 IP.

During his rookie year, 48.4 percent of Romero’s pitches were within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48-49 percent) and he garnered swings on pitches off the plate 24 percent (25-27% MLB average). In 2010, Romero has tried to bait hitters into expanding their zones, and it’s working. Placing just 44 percent of his offerings over the plate, he has induced outside swings 31.2 percent.

Romero’s contact and swinging strike rates were above average last year, but he’s in elite territory so far in 2010. Opponents put the bat on the ball 77.9 percent in ’09, compared to the 80-81% MLB average. That contact rate is down to 72.7 percent this season, and only Tim Lincecum, Brandon Morrow and Clayton Kershaw have been more adept at avoiding lumber. Romero’s swinging strike rate, 9.6 percent during his first foray in the majors, is 11.9 percent in 2010 (8-9% MLB average).

One of the keys to his success is a fantastic changeup. On May 15, Romero whiffed 12 Rangers batters on his way to a complete game shutout. From this AP article, here’s Texas 3B Michael Young describing Romero’s off-speed pitch:

It has kind of a split action to it. It’s not a straight change, it kind of has a little dive down in the zone. It’s a good pitch, it’s a plus pitch for him and you could tell he really had a lot of confidence in it.

Young’s observations look spot-on. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool at texasleaguers.com, Romero has gone to his 84-85 MPH change nearly one-third of the time. The bottom falls out of that pitch, and it moves more like a splitter. The average changeup has 6.1 inches of vertical movement, meaning it drops 6.1 inches less than a pitch thrown without spin. By contrast, Romero’s change has -0.3 inches of vertical movement–it falls 0.3 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin. Batters are swinging at that changeup 53.6 percent (48.3 MLB average), and are whiffing 20.7 percent (12.1 MLB average). That’s, as Young said, a plus pitch.

In 234.1 major league innings, Romero has a 3.86 xFIP. He misses bats, has decent control and induces ground balls by the bushel. Yet, he is still available in nearly one-fifth of Yahoo leagues (81 percent ownership rate). Romero likely won’t keep up this pace all season, but he has the skill set to remain a well above-average starter. Snatch this guy up if he’s still on the waiver wire.


Todd Helton’s Power Outage

Coors Field aside, Rockies first baseman Todd Helton has been an offensive force in his own right. Colorado’s first-round pick in the 1995 draft has a career 142 wRC+, meaning his park and league-adjusted weighted on-base average is 42 percent better than the league average. Possessing zen-like plate discipline and plus power, Helton has been a fixture in the Rockies’ lineup for 14 years.

A back injury sapped Helton’s bat and ended his season early in 2008 (105 wRC+, with a .124 ISO), but he rebounded in 2009 to produce a quality 135 wRC+. While no longer a massive power threat, Helton’s ISO rebounded to .164. Heading into 2010, CHONE and ZiPS expected some decline for the 36-year-old. The FANS were more optimistic:

CHONE: 125 wRC+, .146 ISO
ZiPS: 132 wRC+, .151 ISO
FANS: 140 wRC+, .167 ISO

Helton is still drawing plenty of free passes this season, walking in 15.9 percent of his plate appearances and swinging at just 18 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (27.4% MLB average in 2010). But his power output has dried up like a banquet beer in the blazing sun.

Among big league hitters with at least 100 PA, Helton’s .036 ISO ranks ahead of only Cesar Izturis (.021) and Juan Pierre (.007). Entering play Monday, Helton has yet to hit a single home run. Even with his on-base chops, Helton’s bat has been 15 percent worse than the MLB average in 2010 (85 wRC+).

Nothing much has changed with his batted ball distribution. Helton’s hitting line drives 27.5 percent of the time (25.3% average since 2002), ground balls 35.2 percent (35.7% since ’02) and fly balls 37.4 percent (39.1% since ’02). However, the lefty batter is pulling the ball less and hitting more to the opposite field, an approach that generally leads to less pop. Here are Helton’s spray numbers this year compared to 2009 (from Baseball-Reference):

sOPS+ is a stat that compares a batter’s park-adjusted performance in a given split to that of the league average. An sOPS+ of 100 is average, while an sOPS+ above 100 means the hitter is better than the league average.

In ’09, Helton was excellent when he pulled the ball, besting the league average by 43 percent. He also did pretty well when hitting to the middle and opposite fields. This year, his pull percentage is down, and he has been nine percent worse than the league average when he hits the ball to right field. Note the big increase in pitches hit to the opposite field, 17.2% in ’09 to 27.8% in 2010, and his abysmal performance when going oppo (40 sOPS+).

According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Helton has typically slammed fastballs (+1.50 runs per 100 pitches seen since 2002). But in 2010, he’s at -0.44 runs per 100 when he gets challenged with a heater.

It’s dangerous to draw bold conclusions from a month and a half of games. But Helton’s mild performance when pulling the ball, increased percentage of pitches hit to the opposite field and problems against fastballs paint the picture of a player whose bat has slowed. Helton likely won’t continue to “compete” with Izturis and Pierre for the title of least powerful hitter in the majors –his rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .284/.394/.417 line with a .132 ISO–but his days of cracking lots of extra-base hits are over.


Starting Pitchers: May 17th

Starting pitcher notes from around the MLBiverse…

Jeff Francis | Rockies

For the first time over than 20 months, Francis took to a big league mound yesterday, limiting the Nationals to just one run over seven innings at home. Finesse lefties aren’t prime fantasy pieces, and at his best Francis was a low-4.00’s ERA guy with mediocre WHIP’s and strikeout numbers. Coming back from major shoulder surgery makes him an even riskier proposition. Regardless, he’s is owned in just 5% of Yahoo! leagues, and has some value as a 5th or 6th starter in an NL-only or deep mixed league. If you’re willing to roll the dice, just make sure you watch the matchups until he proves effective.

Javier Vazquez | Yankees

Even though he pitched well against the Tigers last week (two runs and seven strikeouts in seven innings), the Yanks are again skipping Vazquez’s turn through the rotation. Part of that has to do with keeping him away from the Red Sox, but it also has to do with creating better matchups for the rest of the starting staff. Barring weather and/or injury, Vazquez’s next five starts will come against the Mets, Indians, Orioles, Orioles again, and the Astros. That’s a nice little stretch.

ZiPS rest of the season projection calls for a 3.89 ERA with close to a strikeout per inning, but even if you’re pessimistic, an ERA in the low-4.00’s is within reach from here on out. Vazquez is still owned in 74% of Yahoo! leagues, but you’ve still got a chance to go out and try to buy low in a trade.

Tyson Ross | Athletics

Justin Duchscherer’s return from the disabled list has been derailed, possibly costing him the rest of the season, so long man Tyson Ross could get an opportunity to stay in the rotation. His spot start against the Angels over the weekend wasn’t pretty (three runs in 3.2 IP), but he gets a mulligan because his 62 pitches were a season high (by 12) and he’s still just getting back into starting shape. His minor league career features a good number of strikeouts (7.5 K/9) and an absurd ground ball rate (57.5% according to minorleaguesplits.com), and those skills have approximately translated in his tiny big league sampling (22.2 IP, 6.75 K/9, 55.4 GB%). A low-4.00’s ERA is possible the rest of the way with a little help of Oakland’s park.

If Ross is bumped back into the bullpen, Vin Mazzaro is the obvious candidate to assume the vacated rotation spot. Both are available in basically every league.

The Mets

We’re going to have to give the Mets their own section here. A day after announcing that Oliver Perez had been demoted to the bullpen, Jonathon Niese left his start with a hamstring injury. Long reliever Hisanori Takahashi was a candidate to take Perez’s rotation spot, but he had to come in relief of Niese, so he’s no longer an option. They have R.A. Dickey pitching well in Triple-A (~3.00 FIP) and he lines up perfectly to take Ollie’s place on Wednesday, and then Takahashi comes back into play for Niese’s Friday start. Either way, I just wasted about 100 words to tell you that the Mets’ rotation is a mess and other than Johan Santana and maybe Mike Pelfrey, none of them are rosterable.

Just Because…

Zach already touched on Max Scherzer’s demotion, and for now he’ll be replaced by Armando Galarraga. His flukiness has been well documented, so don’t fall into the trap of thinking he can repeat his flashy 2008 ERA. The best way he can help your fantasy team is if someone else takes the bait.


Rankings Update: Catchers

Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the catcher rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”

The Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409, .416)
Brian McCann (.362, .374)
Victor Martinez (.278, .339)

Victor has lowered his strikeout rate, but that has come with a decrease in his walk rate, as well. He still has a .227 BABIP, and with a 22% LD rate, Victor’s batting average will rise sometime soon.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.317, .335)
Geovany Soto (.426, .378)
Russell Martin (.331, .340)
Jorge Posada (.433, .380)

Geo Soto, consider yourself moved up! Last week, commenter “hamandcheese” said that he would “rather have Soto than any of the other guys in his group.” While I didn’t go as far as to move him ahead of Wieters, I did reevaluate his ranking and decided to move him up to number five. Which reminds me to remind you, the reader, to continue challenging these rankings in the comments. For the most part, I do my best to read through them and do some extra thinking about the player(s) in question.

Name That Molina
Bengie Molina (.375, .340)
Yadier Molina (.320, .332)
Ryan Doumit (.339, .340)
Kurt Suzuki (.368, .340)

Suzuki should be back in the next couple of days, but I want to see him come out of the gates and hit before I move him up any higher.

I Am Jack’s Catcher
Ivan Rodriguez (.371, .318)
Miguel Olivo (.392, .338)
Carlos Ruiz (.418, .366)

Olivo snapped out of a small slump, and Pudge is still showing life. Ruiz is slightly hampered by a knee issue, so keep an eye on that over the next week.

Problem Children
A.J. Pierzynski (.241, .300)
Chris Snyder (.340, .352)
Miguel Montero (.498, .360)
Mike Napoli (.392, .338)

It sounds like the White Sox may be open to dealing Pierzynski, and while leaving The Cell may not be the best thing, getting traded to Texas wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The Rest of ‘Em
Jeff Clement (.247, .323)
John Buck (.389, .349)
Chris Iannetta (.244, .334)
Rod Barajas (.361, .327)
Ronny Paulino (.350, .328)
Carlos Santana ( – , .348)
Jake Fox (.261, .317)

I can’t even look at Iannetta’s name without shaking my head, turning towards Denver, and making an obscene gesture.

Authors Note: I know there has been some interest in this, and I’ve never stated a public policy on it, so I figured I’d make it known. Feel free to send me an email with a question about your team, using the email address hyperlinked below this post. Of course, you can also send it to the RotoGraphs Mailbag, if that is more your cup of tea.


Waiver Wire: May 17th

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

John Ely, Los Angeles Dodgers (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

After an impressive performance against the Brewers where he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 IP and had 0 BB and 7 Ks, the Dodgers opted to send Ely to the minors. But the gods intervened and Ely returned after Los Angeles placed Charlie Haeger on the disabled list. Ely then went out and hurled a Quality Start in Arizona to pick up his first win in the majors. He throws four pitches and while his fastball is below-average in velocity, it is a plus pitch in results, as are his slider, change and curve. Ely has 17 Ks and 3 BB in 18.2 IP in the majors this year.

Angel Pagan, New York Mets (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

In his last 18 games, Pagan is batting .311 with 15 R, 11 RBIs and 4 SB. Some of that production may tail off now that he is no longer acting as the team’s leadoff hitter. But Pagan’s continued emergence at the plate, combined with Jeff Francoeur’s continued non-production, makes it likely that he will still have a significant role even when/if Carlos Beltran returns to the lineup.

Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

A few years ago, Ramirez was thought to be an impact bat but there were questions if he could catch in the majors. He had an injury-plagued year in 2009 but got another chance this year with both Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden sent to the minors. Salty is struggling with the yips, unable to throw the ball back to the pitcher. Teagarden was 1-14 in Triple-A and was demoted yet again to Double-A. So Ramirez and Matt Treanor are sharing the catching duties for the time being. Treanor is not much of a threat with the bat, so Ramirez should see plenty of ABs as long as his defense is not too terrible. He made three straight starts May 12-14 and went 5-10 with 2 HR.


Week Seven 2-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week Seven 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – CC Sabathia
DET – Justin Verlander
ARI – Billy Buckner

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

NYY – Javier Vazquez
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
DET – Jeremy Bonderman
MIL – David Bush
WAS – John Lannan
ARI – Cesar Valdez

Sabathia is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed 9 H and 6 ER in 6 IP versus the Tigers last time out. Overall, the strikeouts are down and the homers are up for the big lefty. Sabathia’s 6.41 K/9 is his lowest since 2002 while his 14.3 HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. And the home runs are not due to his home park, as Sabathia has made four of his six starts and allowed six of his 7 HR on the road. His SwStr%, which was 13.9 in 2008, sits at 9.2 here in 2010.

After allowing 10 ER in his first 10 IP this year, Verlander is 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts. In that frame he has 16 BB and 37 Ks in 38.2 IP and has allowed just1 HR. The past three years, Verlander has seen his GB/FB ratio deteriorate, as he has allowed more and more fly balls. But this year the trend has stopped, as his 1.14 GB/FB mark is his best since 2006. Verlander still averages in the mid 90s with his fastball, but he is throwing more off-speed stuff this year. His slider, change and curve have all been more effective pitches so far in 2010 than they were a year ago, when Verlander won 19 games.

Buckner gets the call from Triple-A, where he was 3-1 with a 3.53 ERA at Reno. Surprisingly, Buckner had a 5.6 K/9 after having an 8.4 mark with the same team a season ago. Buckner has 125.1 IP in the majors and has had trouble with the gopher ball. He has a 16.4 HR/FB rate in the majors. Buckner does do a good job of getting ground balls, with a 1.47 GB/FB mark in his time in the majors. He is not overpowering but has a full repertoire of pitches, including a curve, change and cutter.


Hinske With Your Best Shot

The Braves added a productive corner outfielder to their roster with much fanfare last month when they took Jason Heyward north out of Spring Training, but over the last week or so they’ve improved the other corner spot without nearly as much attention. Melky Cabrera’s offensive ineptitude (.236 wOBA prior to today’s fruitless pinch hitting appearance) proved too much to overcome, so Bobby Cox has instead started playing former Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske on an almost every day basis in left field.

Hinske woke up Sunday with a .403 wOBA, and that’s only going to go up following his 2-for-3 with a homer (four RBI) effort this afternoon. Since joining the regular outfield picture nine days ago, he’s 10-for-21 with five doubles, that one homer, and nine runs driven in. His 3.2 wRAA is right behind Brian McCann for the second highest total on the team, but he’s still miles behind Heyward.

A .421 BABIP isn’t sustainable, so expect his .340 AVG to settle back into his usual .250ish range at some point. The homer today was his first of the season even though he’s hitting approximately the same number of fly balls as he always has (37.8% in 2010 vs. 39.7% career), and his line drive rate is actually the highest of his career (27% vs. 20.6%). That’ll come down and so will the extra base hits, but for now Hinske is performing well and has definite value in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.

The object of many Blue Jays’ fans affection (I keed, I keed) is owned in just 1% of Yahoo leagues, so he’s probably available in yours. Best of all, he’s eligible at 1B, 3B, and in the OF, and flexibility is always appreciated. Aside from a date with Johan Santana on Tuesday, the Braves will face righthanders all week, so Hinske should see plenty of at-bats. If you’re looking to tread water while dealing with an injury or a prolonged slump (I’m looking at you, Casey Blake), or if you just need an upgrade to your bench, Hinske’s a great waiver target.


Tigers Demote Scherzer, Sizemore

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer was demoted to Triple-A Toledo today, along with second baseman Scott Sizemore.

Scherzer, who was acquired from the D’Backs by the Tigers this offseason as part of the Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson deal, did not impress in his brief time in the AL. Scherzer struck out 9.19 batters per nine innings last year, but is down to a 5.57 K/9 through his eight starts in 2010.

He has seen a touch of bad luck, with a .327 BABIP agaisnt and 58% LOB%. However, Scherzer has had trouble with balls in play for his short MLB career, with a .323 BABIP against in over 268 innings.

While his ERA is 7.29, his xFIP is only 5.04. Our updated ZiPS projections have Scherzer finishing the year with a 5.16 ERA. MLB.com’s Jason Beck says that Scherzer has had problems with his mechanics, so hopefully he can work things out in the minors and return relatively shortly. If you have Scherzer in a keeper league, you might as well hold on to him during this stretch, otherwise it is safe to drop him.

As far as Sizemore goes, his demotion isn’t even the biggest news surrounding the Tigers 2B job. The team says that Carlos Guillen will be the everyday second baseman when he returns from the DL in the next week or two.

Guillen hasn’t played 2B since 1999 (when he was with the Mariners), but he did play 132 games at SS back in 2007, so he isn’t that far removed from the middle infield. In real life, UZR was not kind to Guillen at SS in ’07, or at 3B in ’08, so we’ll see how long Guillen can hold down the job at 2B. For fantasy owners, as long as he plays enough games to gain eligibility, it doesn’t matter how long he sticks. ZiPS has Guillen hitting .280 the rest of the season, and adding in 10 homers and 5 steals. Getting those numbers out of your second baseman is not the worst thing in the world.

Focusing on Sizemore, a .268 BABIP and 3.6% HR/FB rate hurt his value and he ended up with awRC+ of only 60. He should be able to return to AAA and hit very well once again, forcing the Tigers to consider bringing him back up later on in the season. But, if Guillen plays well at 2B, there may not be room from him.