Minnesota Twins recalled SS Trevor Plouffe from Triple-A Rochester.

Plouffe, who will turn 24 in June, was the 20th overall pick in the 2004 draft. The California prep product touched the low-90’s on the mound, but the Twins liked his potential to develop into a quality defender at a premium position and handed him a $1.5 million bonus.

During his first three years in pro ball, Plouffe scuffled at the plate. He hit .283/.340/.380 in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League in ’04, then followed up with a .223/.300/.345 triple-slash in the Low-A Midwest League in 2005 and a .246/.333/.347 line in the High-A State Florida State League in 2006. Plouffe showed a decent eye in A-Ball, walking in about 10 percent of his plate appearances, but he didn’t hit with much authority.

Upon reaching the upper levels of the minors, Plouffe has taken more of a grip-it-and-rip-it approach. At the Double-A level, he batted .272/.326/.410, walking just 6.7 percent and bumping his Isolated Power to a still-modest .129. In Triple-A, Plouffe has an overall .267/.317/.427 line. He has drawn a walk 6.5 percent, with a .160 ISO.

While he has mostly played shortstop, Plouffe has also dabbled at second and third base to improve his appeal as a big league utility man. With Minnesota, Plouffe will provide an extra infield glove while J.J. Hardy (wrist) continues his rehab. The odds of Plouffe becoming a solid every day starter appear slim at this point, as his shortstop D hasn’t been as advertised and his bat projects as below-average–CHONE and ZiPS both had sub-.300 wOBA forecasts for him prior to 2010.

Milwaukee Brewers placed C Gregg Zaun (strained right shoulder) on the DL; purchased the contract of C Jonathan Lucroy

The Brew Crew’s third-round pick in the 2007 draft, Lucroy has generally shown fantastic plate discipline and mid-range pop during his minor league career. The Louisiana-Lafayette product, who will also turn 24 in June, beat up on less experienced pitching in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League in 2007. He then hit a combined .301/.377/.495 between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Florida State League in 2008, walking in 10.6 percent of his PA with a .194 ISO.

Last year, Lucroy moved up to the Double-A Southern League and posted a .267/.380/.418 line. His power declined against more advanced hurlers (.151 ISO), but he drew a free pass 15.4 percent of the time while lowering his K rate from 17.7 in ’08 to 15.6 in ’09.

He began 2010 back at Huntsville, but earned a promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League after getting off to a .452/.500/.524 start in 47 PA. With Nashville, Lucroy has struggled in a small sample (.238/.265/.363 in 83 PA). If there’s any concern, it’s that he hasn’t shown his typically discerning eye: he has walked just 5.3 percent between the two levels. Given his track record, it’s probably just a blip on the radar.

Lucroy’s defense has drawn mixed reviews–before 2010, Baseball America said he “needs to improve his game-calling skills,” and that “scouts are divided over whether Lucroy projects as a regular or a backup in the majors.” For what it’s worth, Lucroy’s D rates well according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone system.

Prior to the season kicking off, CHONE projected a .250/.337/.382 line (.322 wOBA) in the bigs for Lucroy, while ZiPS envisioned a .245/.326/.378 (.316 wOBA) triple-slash. With Zaun out, Lucroy will get whatever playing time doesn’t go to George Kottaras. The former Padres and Red Sox prospect has a .237/.336/.402 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .331 wOBA.

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton currently features a ridiculous K/BB rate of 12.00. With just one save to his credit on the year, as of May 7, Broxton has now reeled off a string of seven straight saves, including four in the past week. Any hope of acquiring him while his value was “low” is now gone.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Despite two blown saves on the year, Bell is third in the league with 11 late-game stops and his ERA currently sits at 1.00. His 11.50 K/9 rate is also significantly above his career strikeout rate. If San Diego keeps playing well, Bell could once again save 40 games.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Batters are soon going to be awarded “I’d didn’t K against Marmol” pins for when they manage to either walk (5.23 BB/9) or make some sort of contact against him. The Cubs closer currently has a strikeout rate of 17.42 K/9, leaving his owners giddy. Unfortunately, he only has seven saves to his credit. Interestingly, when batters do make contact against Marmol, they tend to hit him hard (31.3 LD%).

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin is the antithesis of Carlos Marmol. The veteran right-hander has a number of lousy rates but he’s been successful in 10 of 11 opportunities this season. The right-hander appeared in four games this past week and was 3-for-3 in saves. It’s amazing what can happen when you can throw strikes and get a head of batters.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Despite the recent promotion of future closer Drew Storen, incumbent Capps is showing no signs of slowing down. The veteran reliever continues to lead the Majors in saves with 15 and he has yet to blow an opportunity. Three of his five earned runs allowed on the season have come in non-save opportunities.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: With six losses in the last seven games, there wasn’t a whole lot for Lindstrom to do this past week. He appeared in just one game (a non-save opportunity) but he struck out one and did not allow a run in one inning.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez gave up a run in each of his two appearances this past week but he saved both games. Despite allowing four hits this past week, he’s still give up just nine base knocks in 17.1 innings on the year.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Wilson’s ERA has been a little high this year, but he has 10 saves in 11 tries, as well as a strikeout rate of 13.22 K/9. He saved three games this past week but gave up six hits and three walks in doing so.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: With just 12 hits allowed in 20.2 innings, Rodriguez’ WHIP has taken a bit of a hit due to his 10 walks allowed. The right-hander sports a 2.18 ERA but the 4.50 FIP suggests he’s had some luck.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero is second in the Majors in saves with 13, but he’s been far from dominant. The veteran closer has three blown saves, three losses, and a 3.60 ERA. He also has a 1.55 WHIP. Cordero went 2-for-3 in save opportunities this past week.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner now has as many wins as saves (four) after picking up a shocking three wins this past week. Unfortunately, he’s still not having any save opportunities come his way and (on May 19) he blew his first opportunity since May 8.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Ever since his wife gave birth, Dotel has been a much improved player (coincidence or not). The right-hander has given up just one run in his last eight appearances and he saved three games this past week. If he keeps this up, his ERA is going to start looking a lot like his xFIP of 3.97.

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: There was a whole lot of shakin’ going on in the bullpen this past week for Arizona but Qualls remains as the club’s closer. He’s got an impressive 10.05 K/9 rate and his xFIP is just 3.17, but he’s been hurt by the base knock (23 in 14.1 innings). He went 1-for-2 in save opportunities this past week.

Jose Contreras | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With both Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson on the DL, and the club unwilling to trust promising rookie Scott Mathieson with such an important role, the club is now leaning on converted starter Jose Contreras. He’s gone 2-for-2 in save opportunities this season and currently has a 12.56 K/9 rate. Contreras is a great pick up in all formats.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Corpas has taken over the closer’s role for now, but he’s been far from dominant this season. His strikeout rate is at 5.98 K/9 and his xFIP is 4.70. Although his fastball has been working well for him overall, his average fastball velocity is down to about 89 mph, which is more than 3 mph slower than it was in ’06.

Carlos Villanueva and Trevor Hoffman | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Hey, perhaps the Brewers front office reads these reports. One week after suggesting Carlos Villanueva should be placed in the (at least temporary) closer’s role, he was given his first save opportunity of the year – and was successful. Hoffman, on the other hand, appeared in two games this past week and blew his only save opp. Monitor the situation in Milwaukee and jump on Villanueva if he’s announced as closer.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria is tied for third in the league in saves and has one of the best strikeout rates amongst closers in the AL. His numbers have been skewed by his problems with the long ball. He was successful in both his save opportunities this week.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano continues to be a strong contributor to a powerful team. The closer is a perfect 11-for-11 in saves on the year and he made four appearances this past week and was 2-for-2 in saves.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Valverde has actually allowed more walks (nine) than hits (seven) on the season and is 11-for-12 in saves. His low strikeout rate (6.27 K/9) diminishes his value a bit. He converted his only save opportunity this past week.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Manager Ron Washington is certainly not worried about wearing Feliz out. The young closer has appeared in more games and pitched more innings than any other AL closer. He appeared in three games this past week and saved two games against Los Angeles. Feliz recorded three strikeouts and did not walk or allow a hit to a batter.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch continues to chug along with 10 saves in 11 tries, as well as just two walks in 16.0 innings. He recorded just one save this past week but held his own against both the Yankees and Red Sox lineups.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: His ERA continues to be impressive at 1.15 and Bailey has yet to allow a homer, but the strikeouts and save opportunities continue to elude the sophomore closer. He blew his only save opportunity this week.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: It’s been a rough week for Rivera. He blew a start against Minnesota and gave up four runs in 2.1 innings on the week.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: It’s been a rough week for Papelbon, too. The right-hander gave up five runs in 4.0 innings with all the damage coming against the Yankees.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Gregg continues to lead the AL in saves but his command has slipped lately. He still has a good strikeout rate at 10.24 K/9 but he’s looked shaky in many of his recent appearances. He blew his last save opportunity and took the loss against Seattle by allowing three runs in the ninth inning.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma appeared in just two games this past week and picked up the save in his only opportunity. The right-hander also recorded strikeouts on four of the six outs he recorded.

Alfredo Simon | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Despite questionable control (6.30 BB/9), Simon has saved five games on the year. The converted starter blew his first save of the year – and took the loss – this past week against Cleveland. He also gave up his first earned runs on the year with four in one game against the Indians.

Fernando Rodney and Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes saved two games this past week but recorded just one strikeout in three appearances. Rodney did not receive a save opportunity and he appeared in just two games for a total of two-thirds of an inning.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Embattled closer Jenks continues to have an impressive strikeout rate at 12.21 K/9 but his ERA sits at 5.79 and he’s given up 21 hits in 14.0 innings. He has a 2.88 xFIP. Hard-throwing Matt Thornton converted a save against Kansas City on May 15, so be wary of that.

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Wood has not looked good in his return from the DL. He has five walks and seven hits allowed in 3.1 innings. Wood has blown his only save opportunity since returning and he allowed five earned runs against KC on May 19. Trusted with a save opportunity on May 17, former fill-in closer Chris Perez blew the opportunity.

Be sure to check back later today as Eno Sarris, Zach Sanders, and Brian Joura will be hosting a fantasy chat at 3:30 p.m. eastern. We’ve had some great questions over the past few chats so keep them coming!

It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.

Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.

Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))

McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.

Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.

The Yankees and fantasy owners will be without the services of Jorge Posada for at least 3-4 weeks, as the switch-hitting backstop has a hairline fracture in his right foot. Posada suffered the injury on a Michael Cuddyer foul tip this past Sunday.

The 38-year-old was off to a scorching .326/.406/.618 start in 2010, with a .441 wOBA. Sans Posada, New York won’t turn to uber-prospect Jesus Montero, a prodigious power hitter in Triple-A who’s just 20 years old and elicits unfavorable scouting reports behind the dish. Francisco Cervelli will get the bulk of the starts until Posada is healed.

Cervelli, 24, was signed out of Venezuela back in 2003. Prior to 2009, though, he was known mostly as “the dude that Elliot Johnson crushed at home plate in spring training ’08” (somewhere in Cleveland, Shelley Duncan just got all twitchy). During his minor league career, the 6-1, 210 pound righty batter posted a .273/.367/.380 triple-slash. Cervelli had a 9.4 percent walk rate, striking out 20.6 percent and rarely driving the ball with a .107 Isolated Power.

Baseball America ranked Cervelli 23rd in the Yankees’ system prior to 2008 and 21st before 2009, but left him off the 2010 top 30 as the club accumulated an embarrassment of riches at the catching position (Montero, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy all made New York’s top 10 according to BA). Cervelli’s catch-and-throw skills were touted in his ’08 and ’09 write-ups, but BA questioned his offensive ceiling:

2008 (John Manuel)

While he has a good swing, he lacks the premium bat speed or strength to hit for power. The ball doesn’t jump off his bat. He does draw some walks, but more advanced pitchers will be more likely to challenge him without fear of reprisal.

2009 (Manuel)

Cervelli lacks the bat speed and strength to produce more than below-average power, and while he has shown good plate discipline in the minors, he’ll have to earn the respect of pitchers at higher levels.

Over the 2008-2010 seasons, Cervelli has logged 187 plate appearances. His line sits at .319/.358/.410, with little in the way of secondary skills (4.8 BB%, .090 ISO) but a high contact rate (13.3 K%) and a .359 batting average on balls in play that’s going to regress (his minor league mark is .336).

Cervelli hasn’t been a hacker, as his 26.2 outside swing percentage is close to the big league average. But, as Baseball America’s Manuel alluded to, major league pitchers are challenging him–Cervelli has gotten a fastball 66.4 of the time, with 52.4 percent of his pitches seen being thrown within the strike zone (48-51% MLB average).

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected a .257/.311/.376 line (.300 wOBA), while ZiPS had a .255/.307/.380 forecast (also a .300 wOBA). Cervelli’s fast start this season has his rest-of-season ZiPS line up to .282/.337/.423 (.334 wOBA), which seems like an awfully large jump, particularly in the power department (.141 ISO). Personally, I would take the “under” on that projection.

Cervelli is relatively young, and his development has been delayed by some kooky injuries (a broken wrist in the Johnson collision that torpedoed his ’08 season and a concussion sustained on a backswing in ’09 among them). But .413 wOBA start aside, he’s probably more of an adequate offensive catcher than any sort of breakout star. Those in mixed leagues might want to turn to someone like L.A.’s Mike Napoli (owned in 47% of Yahoo leagues) or Arizona’s Chris Snyder (13%) instead.

As the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft, Gavin Floyd fell well short of expectations with the Philadelphia Phillies. The 6-5, 230 pound righty compiled -0.4 Wins Above Replacement with the Fightins from 2004-2006, then posted a 0.1 WAR season with the Chicago White Sox in 2007 following a December ’06 trade that landed Floyd and Gio Gonzalez on the South Side for Freddy Garcia.

Over the next two seasons, however, Floyd made marked progress. He managed a 4.56 expected FIP (xFIP) in 206.1 innings pitched in 2008, with 6.32 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9. He really emerged in 2009, improving greatly against left-handed batters while authoring a 3.69 xFIP in 193 IP. Floyd whiffed 7.6 batters per nine innings and walked 2.75 per nine.

Unfortunately, the 27-year-old’s 2010 campaign hearkens back to those nightmarish Phillies days–Floyd’s ERA during his first 45 innings is an even seven. Those who spent an early pick on Gavin are probably cursing enough to make Ozzie Guillen blush. Many have severed ties altogether, as Floyd’s Yahoo ownership rate has dipped to 55 percent. Look a little closer, though, and you’ll see a talented pitcher primed to bounce back.

It’s true that Floyd isn’t throwing as well as he did during his career-best ’09 season. But, he’s still showing the skills of a solid starter. Floyd has 7.6 K/9, and he has issued 3.4 BB/9. His ground ball rate is a career-high 50 percent, a positive development for a guy who has been plagued by the long ball in the past (career 1.33 HR/9)

Gavin has been plagued by a .381 batting average on balls in play, compared to a career .298 BABIP. Grounders generally have a higher BABIP than fly balls, but that 2010 mark is obscenely high and will drop.

He’s also stranding far fewer runners than usual. Floyd’s left on base rate is just 57.2 percent. During his big league career, he has stranded 68.3 percent of base runners. That’s below the 70-72% major league average, but even if Floyd struggles a bit from the stretch, that LOB rate should be closer to 70 percent than 60 percent moving forward. His 4.19 xFIP is much more appealing than that appalling ERA.

Floyd’s getting a few more swings on pitches off the plate (28.1 O-Swing% in 2010, compared to 27.5% in ’09; 25-27% MLB average), and his contact rates are largely unchanged. Batters are connecting 77.7 percent of the time this season, after making contact 77.8 percent last year (80-81% MLB average). Floyd is getting swinging strikes 9.4 percent, which is less than 2009 (9.9 percent) but still above the 8-8.5% major league average.

One facet of his game that Floyd could stand to improve is his control–his first pitch strike percentage, 60 percent in 2009, is down to 55.8 percent (58-59% MLB average). And, after hitting the strike zone with 48.2 percent of his pitches last season, Floyd has placed 45.1 percent of his offerings in the zone this year (48-51% MLB average). His cut fastball appears to be the biggest culprit, as he threw it for a strike 70.1 percent in ’09 but just half of the time in 2010 (66.7% MLB average).

He might not be an ace, but Floyd is a quality option in AL-only leagues and is worth a roster spot in most mixed leagues. If possible, snag him off the waiver wire or send a trade offer to a frustrated Floyd owner.

Here’s three players who could step right in and give your team a nice little boost…

Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | C | 4% owned

News broke late last night that Jorge Posada will miss the next 3-4 weeks (and probably more when you consider a minor league rehab assignment) with a hairline fracture in his foot after getting whacked with a foul ball on Sunday. He’s also missed time with a sore calf and a bruised knee (suffered on a HBP) in recent weeks, so backup Frankie Cervelli has actually started behind the plate in 11 of the Yanks’ last 14 games. He’s responded with a gaudy .413 wOBA and 17 RBI, though he’s certainly been helped by a .417 BABIP. ZiPS RoS projection calls for a .282 AVG the rest of the way, which has lots of value from a catcher. Perhaps most importantly, Cervelli now how some playing time certainty.

Chris Coghlan | Marlins | OF | 40%

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year had what we’ll call a rough go of it early this season, with a sub-.250 wOBA and zero extra base hits through his first 107 plate appearances. That also came with a sub-.200 BABIP, but over the last week-and-a-half Coghlan’s steadily picked up the pace. He’s 13 for his last 41 (.317) with two doubles, two homers, and two stolen bases for good measure. His BABIP has climbed up to a more reasonable .279, which is still a ways off from his .326 minor league mark, nevermind last season’s .365.

When trying to replace an injured (or underperforming player), I tend to forget about replacing what I’ll lose in counting stats and instead try to make sure my rate stats don’t take a hit. If Coghlan continues to regress back to the mean, he should provide a better than good AVG for your team.

Wade LeBlanc | Padres | SP | 25%

LeBlanc took Chris Young’s spot after he made his annual trip to the DL, and he’s been the best pitcher on the staff since. His 1.54 ERA is backed up by a 2.67 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP, and he’s not enjoying any extra special luck on balls in play with a .315 BABIP. LeBlanc’s LOB% is sky high at 87%, but an ERA in the low-4.00’s from here on out is very possible. His next three starts are at the Mariners, then at home against the Cardinals and Mets.

Ownership rates are bases on Yahoo! leagues.

Last Sunday I was able to take in one of Tim Melville’s starts against the Potomac Nationals at the local Pfitzner Stadium. Melville’s obviously a big name and one of the top arms in Kansas City’s farm system so I made it a point to see him after returning home from a challenging set of final exams to wrap up the semester.

The Royals popped Melville in the fourth round of the 2008 draft after he fell considerably down the board due to signability concerns and a lackluster senior season at Holt High School. Rumor has it that his family sent out a letter to scouts before the draft instructing them what type of dollar amount it would take for Melville to sign. Teams appeared to scurry and it looked more and more likely that Melville would end up becoming a Tar Heel.

He almost did but the Royals ponied up and signed him to a well-above slot $1.25 million deal right before the signing deadline. Melville received the biggest bonus in the fourth round that year.

The Royals limited Melville to 100 innings during his first professional season in 2009 at low Class A Burlington. He made 21 starts and only averaged 4.2 innings per start. Melville’s ERA matched up well with his peripherals last year as he had a 3.98 FIP and struck out nearly a batter per inning. He didn’t display pin point precision as evidenced by his walk rate which hovered around 4.

Through seven starts before Sunday’s outing the 20-year-old’s ERA stood out like a sore thumb at 9.76. I have been following Melville’s box scores all season long and that number just hasn’t looked right. He still displayed a solid set of peripherals and was striking people out and not allowing an inordinate amount of home runs. But his control continued to be a problem for him and has plagued him through his first tour of the Carolina League. I came to the ballpark expecting to see Melville somehow lower that ugly ERA.

Melville came out of the gates firing. He caught the P-Nats lead off hitter, Steve Lombardozzi, looking and organizational solider, Brian Peacock, went down hacking. The Blue Rocks were on the road but Melville had a bunch of friends and family in the stands today. Their chants almost reminded me of being at a high school baseball game.

Melville and the Royals dodged a huge bullet in the second inning when third baseman, Tim Pahuta (AKA “The Big Pahuta” which has got to be one of the best nicknames in the minors), hit a rocket right back at Melville. Melville didn’t even try to make a play on the line drive and tried getting out of the way as quick as possible by dropping to the ground. He made it to the ground unscathed by mere instants which was a big sigh of relief. Especially for Melville’s collective friends and family behind the Wilmington dugout.

Melville has a great pitchers frame at 6-foot-5 and 210-pounds. The right hander has a great pitchers body that is likely closed to being maxed out and he easily passed the eye test for me. During his windup he brings his glove over his head and fires straight over the chute and easily creates downhill plane. He has clean mechanics and creates good balance in his delivery. Melville also repeats his delivery very well.

In the early innings Melville exhibited a plus fastball that sat in the 90-92 range with good life. I saw him spike 93 a few times as the game progressed. At times Melville’s command of his fastball escaped him and caused him to prolong opposing hitters at-bats. He walked two during his outing.

Melville also utilizes a nifty 12-6 curveball with good break that is definitely a plus pitch for me. I only saw him fail to get on top of it and hang the pitch a few times during the game and he used it quite often. It’s definitely his best secondary pitch and he isn’t afraid to pitch backwards to hitters and throw it for strike one.

Melville also has a big spread on his curveball. He threw the pitch ranging from 70-78 mph during the game and that isn’t a typo. His ability to take off or add a little velocity to his curveball was very impressive especially for a 20-year-old in his second professional season removed from high school.

Melville didn’t flash a third pitch very often during this outing. The progress of his changeup will be a big part of his development going forward. I see the big key to success for Melville being the command of his fastball. It can be a plus pitch but when his command goes his pitch count increases and he starts walking people. This likely attributes to his poor 5.43 walk rate this season.

Melville holds runners very well when they reach base. But he might be trying to hold them too well and shouldn’t let them become too big of a distraction and focus primarily on going after the hitter at the plate.

For the first time this season, Melville, almost completed six full innings. He was pulled after allowing a run and recording two outs in the sixth inning. Potomac only mustered four hits against Melville and scored two runs off of the right hander. Melville walked two and struck out five.

After the game Melville’s ERA fell to 8.64. His stronger set of peripherals (8.7 K/9, 5.43 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9) to date signify that his ERA obviously doesn’t tell the entire story (heck, when does ERA tell the entire story?) and the high A club’s defense isn’t doing him any favors either. Melville has a .373 BABIP this season.

Overall, I was very impressed with Melville. His sturdy frame and two plus pitches will bode well for him. There’s a variety of things to like about Melville. The command of his fastball and development of his changeup will be a big part of his development and route to the majors. He could take a big jump soon up prospect lists when/if those two aspects of his game improve. He’s only 20 and there’s an ample amount of time for him to figure those things out.

Don’t let Melville’s poor minor league numbers thus far this season fool you. He’s a legit arm and his perfect world projection is that of a number two starter if everything pans out exceptionally well. Since it’s unfair to expect prospects to erase all of their weaknesses I would say Melville most likely has the ceiling of a number three starter that chews up innings due to his durable frame. His numbers should improve as he advances up the minor league ladder and pitches in front of better defenses. I’d give him 2-3 years to work his way through the minors with an ETA of late 2012/2013. I’m expecting him to become a valuable commodity in keeper leagues and if you have the chance to get him cheaply you should act now while his numbers look disappointing.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Melville finds himself on a few top 100 prospect lists after this season. He only made one of the four (BA, Keith Law, FanGraphs, BP’s top 101) lists. Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus had him at #93 on his top 101.

SCOUTING TIDBITS

*1B Eric Hosmer-That lasik eye surgery really has done wonders.. While he went hitless in the game that I saw there were still good things to like. He has a good, athletic body. Hosmer has an imposing presence at the plate with a stance that’s slightly open. P-Nats starter, Brad Peacock, fed him a steady diet of fastballs away (he also got him to whiff against a solid breaking pitch) and Hosmer still put some good swings on them. He drilled a liner back into the catchers mask and just got under another that resulted in a pop that was in the air for nearly seven seconds…just another reminder that Hosmer’s raw power is still there despite only two homers on the year.

*C Derek Norris– Norris is a little short and stocky but the bat is impressive. He tracks pitches well and showed the ability to hit the ball to all fields. He singled off Melville in his first plate appearance. Norris DH’ed on Sunday but I saw him catch earlier in the week. It wasn’t pretty. His hands and receiving skills still need a bunch of work. Too many balls scooted by him to the backstop. He isn’t as bad as Jesus Montero back there but where do the Nats put him if he can’t stick behind the plate? Unfortunately, he can’t DH in Washington and a return to the hot corner where he played in high school doesn’t seem probable with franchise icon, Ryan Zimmerman, doing everything right at third.

*RHP Brad Peacock– Peacock opposed Melville on Sunday and some sloppy defense and cheap hits did him in during the 5th inning. He pitched much better than the box score indicated (4.2IP 5R 3BB 6K). Peacock has a simple, repeatable delivery. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and it’s an average to above-average pitch. He displayed fringy breaking stuff today. He could sniff the big leagues as a back of the rotation starter or swing man.

*OF Michael Burgess– He has big plus power and a nice plus arm in right field…but I’m just not a big believer here. He doesn’t move too well at all and he’s got a long swing. His pitch recognition needs work and Melville made him look silly in a four pitch at-bat. Melville fed him three breaking balls that Burgess swung and missed at each time. It didn’t look pretty. He’ll hit some baseballs a long way but I see his swing as an all or nothing proposition. If he doesn’t figure it out quick I could see him flaming out quickly. His best bet might be to try making it to the big leagues as a home run threat off the bench.

*C Salvador Perez– Perez is an advanced defender and he’s a good receiver. He’s 1.95 down to second base and I had him at 1.38 to third base on steal attempts. He’s a good, defensive minded catcher and organizations can always use those. He may become a back up catcher in the big leagues some day.

*OF Jamar Walton– He looks pretty good in a baseball uniform at 6-foot-4 and 195-pounds. The athletic body stands out but unfortunately for Walton…not much else tools wise does either…

*3B Tim Pahuta– He may not be much of a prospect and more like organizational fodder. But he does have two things going that really stand out about him. The Seton Hall product is 27-years-old and in high A ball! That’s awfully old and you’ve got to give the guy credit…he sure does have a plus name.

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I also have some more bittersweet news for you. I recently accepted an internship with a baseball team and this will be my last post for RotoGraphs. While I will miss the scene here I am very excited about my new position. I’ve always aspired to work for a team and this is another step in the right direction. I’ve had a great time writing here and sharing my analysis and opinions with all of you. It’s been a great experience for me and also a fantastic learning tool. The feedback has been great too.

I apologize for the sporadic posts over the past few months. If I had it my way I would have written much more over the past couple months but unfortunately academics kind of ran into the way. RotoGraphs has really picked up this season and I’m sorry to just be leaving the party now. I’m confident that the rest of the staff will do a great job. This is a great website for baseball analysis and it always seems to be getting better and better.

I would like to thank Marc Hulet and David Appelman for extending me this fantastic opportunity last November. David G, my fellow Duquesne Duke, was also instrumental in getting me over here to write. Much thanks to them and the rest of the RotoGraphs and FanGraphs staff for everything during my stay here.

Feel free to stay in touch via email or Twitter @danbudreika where you can find me talking about baseball, quotes, or life in general. Thanks for reading and I hope you all enjoy the remainder of the season. Be well!