Today’s premium prospects receive more scrutiny than ever. Short of parting the Red Sea and ending world hunger (I’m looking at you, Strasburg), hot-shot young players may receive an, “is that it?” reaction from fans when they merely hold their own in the early stages of their respective big league careers.

Take Tampa’s David Price. The 1st overall pick in the 2007 draft abused minor league hitters and received national acclaim by flinging upper-90’s heat and sinister upper-80’s sliders out of the ‘pen during the 2008 playoffs. Entering 2009, Price adorned magazine covers and battled Matt Wieters for the titles of Best Prospect Ever and Time Man of the Year.

While Price didn’t dominate from the get-go as a starter, he more than held his own for a 23-year-old in the A.L. East. In 128.1 IP, he posted rates of 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP. In 2010, Price has a 1.91 ERA in 42.1 frames. While he hasn’t suddenly morphed into Sandy Koufax circa 1963, Price has shown improvement in a few key areas.

In ’09, Price didn’t get batters to chase or swing through a pitch all that often. His outside swing percentage was 22.9 (25-27% MLB average), and his swinging strike percentage was a mild 7.5 (8-8.5% MLB average). This year, Price is getting outside swings 30 percent of the time, while getting a swinging strike 8.4 percent.

During his first year in the rotation, the 6-6 southpaw relied upon two main pitches: a 93 MPH four-seam fastball and an 83-84 MPH slider. The second time around, Price’s repertoire appears more expansive. Rather than tossing a four-seamer 71 percent of the time and mixing in sliders about 20 percent, Price has thrown a two-seamer about 24 percent and has gone to a 76-77 MPH curveball (thrown about 18 percent) as his breaking pitch of choice. His percentage of four-seam fastballs is in the low forties, and his slider percentage is less than half of what it was last season.

With the two-seamer (thrown about 90 MPH, with about 2 inches more tailing action in on lefties than the average two-seamer), Price’s ground ball rate has ticked up a bit, from 41.5% to 43.4%. The curve, while not getting many whiffs (6.1%, compared to the 10.5% MLB average), is getting plenty of strikes: 70.2%, way above the 58% big league average.

Whether the introduction of another breaking pitch has played a part or not, Price’s slider has been harder to hit this year. In ’09, the slide-piece was whiffed at just 5.9% (13% MLB average). In 2010, that whiff rate has climbed to a more palatable 11.1%. Perhaps the presence of two breaking balls has hitters less certain about what Price is going to throw. Along the same lines, his four-seamer, whiffed at 8.2 percent in 2009, has an elite 10 percent whiff rate in 2010 (6 percent MLB average).

The 24 year-old won’t keep that shiny ERA, as his BABIP will rise from .231, he’ll strand fewer than 81.6 percent of base runners and he’ll surrender more than a 4.3 HR/FB%. But Price has whiffed 7.02 per nine innings, walked 2.98 and has a solid 4.02 xFIP.

This is just a theory, but David Price with four pitches would certainly appear to be harder to hit than David Price with just two offerings. Now, batters have to anticipate four-seam, two-seam, curve or slider, as opposed to mainly just four-seam or slider. Price might not yet be a top-of-the-line starter, but he’s getting there.

Scoop these two players up if they’re available–after you give Mom a hug, that is…

Travis Snider, Blue Jays (Owned in 7% of Yahoo leagues)

A 6-0, 235 pound lefty thumper taken with the 14th pick in the 2006 draft, Snider shredded minor league pitching (.304/.382/.533, 11.1 BB%, .229 ISO) while reaching the majors for parts of his age 20 and 21 seasons. While some seem disappointed with his work thus far (a .330 wOBA in 466 career PA), there’s no shame in being a league-average hitter in the majors at ages in which most batters are taking cuts in High-A or Double-A. Take note of a couple of plate discipline trends for Snider over the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons:

2008: 33.3 Outside Swing%, 68.5 Z-Swing%, 70 Contact%
2009: 27.1 Outside Swing%, 71.8 Z-Swing%, 71.3 Contact%
2010: 21.4 Outside Swing%, 72.2 Z-Swing%, 76.6 Contact%

(Outside Swing= percentage of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone; the MLB average has been 25-27% in recent years. Z-Swing= percentage of swings on pitches within the strike zone; the MLB average has been 63-65% recently. The average Contact rate is 80-81%).

Snider is gradually laying off pitcher’s pitches, swinging at more in-zone offerings and making more contact. So far this season, he has batted .227/.318/.433, with an 11.8 percent walk rate, a 23.7 percent punch out rate, a .206 ISO and a .325 wOBA. He has elite power in that pre-slim-down Matt Stairs frame, and he’s controlling the zone well. That’s not to say that everything is perfect: Snider has a 22.7 infield/fly ball percentage that’s basically twice the MLB average. Those weak pop ups are easy outs, and help explain his .257 BABIP. But overall, a 22-year-old slugger who’s taking a more enlightened plate approach is well worth a look.

Tom Gorzelanny, Cubs (12%)

Picked up from the Pirates last summer (along with lefty reliever John Grabow) for RHPs Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio and INF Josh Harrison, Gorzelanny lost the faith of Pittsburgh’s new regime. The Bucs’ second-round pick in the ’03 draft compiled an impressive minor league resume (8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 career) and rated #96 on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list prior to 2006. But, after so-so performances in 2006 (4.88 xFIP) and 2007 (4.82 xFIP), Gorzelanny imploded in 2008 on his way to a 5.84 xFIP.

Described by BA as possessing 90-92 MPH gas capable of hitting 95, a slider that could be “unhittable at times” and a rapidly improving changeup in the ’06 Prospect Handbook, Gorzo devolved into a guy with a high-80’s fastball, no slider to speak of and a marginal changeup. Add in injury problems (elbow tendinitis in ’06, shoulder tightness in ’07, and middle finger and shoulder ailments in ’08), and the lefty looked busted.

Things began to change in 2009, however, as Gorzelanny managed a K per inning, 3.26 BB/9 and a 3.73 xFIP in 47 innings (seven starts, 15 ‘pen appearances), mostly for the Cubs. And, given a chance to start full-time in 2010, the 27-year-old is off to a fantastic start.

In 35 innings, Gorzelanny has 9.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9 and a 3.34 xFIP. That velocity he showed as a Pirates farmhand doesn’t appear to be coming back (89.9 MPH with the fastball), But Gorzo’s using his once-vaunted slider over a quarter of the time and he’s getting a bunch of swings on pitches off the plate (34.6 O-Swing%). His swinging strike rate sits at a healthy 11.6% (8.3% MLB average).

Gorzelanny isn’t likely to keep up this pace, but his rest-of-season ZiPS projection is quite useful (7.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 3.93 FIP). And look at that ownership rate–Carlos Silva (29% owned) is on more than twice as many fantasy squads as Gorzo. That should soon change.

Since outfielders are so bountiful, it makes sense to create some tiers. We’ll start these rankings at 17, which means that the first outfielder may be an OF1 in most leagues, but we’ll still be able to delve a little deeper than we have to date. Once again, to-date wOBA plus ZiPS RoS wOBA is listed.

Worst of the Best?
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.390 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.328 wOBA, .339 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
3. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.484 wOBA, .414 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Adam Lind, Toronto (.323 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.345 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
6. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.343 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier moved up into the OF1 rankings with their strong play in the early goings. Adam Lind and Manny Ramirez moved down because of mediocre play and old age, though Lind could still get it going – he just needs to find his power and stop striking out so much. Neither of those things becomes significant in a short sample. That fact should temper our enthusiasm for McCutchen a tiny bit, though, since there is still no guarantee that he will retain all the power gains he’s made in the past year-plus. As an aside, it’s a little silly to hear about how few times Manny Ramirez has gone on the DL. We all know he’s old and injury-prone at this point. 2008 aside, he’s the kind of guy that misses time here and there but has “somehow” avoided the DL.

Still Strong
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago (.387 wOBA, .393 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.435 wOBA, .370 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.358 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Michael Bourn, Houston (.363 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. Denard Span, Minnesota (.354 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.294 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the boring-as-vanilla tier for the most part (but to be fair, it does seem that Haagen-Dazs Vanilla with strawberries is the nectar of the gods). Carlos Quentin is making it harder to believe in him every day, but he’s having some BABIP problems and we can hope that power comes back still. Not too late for him to turn it around and have a decent year. Soriano’s resurgence takes him from afterthought to solid OF2, which is actually sort of an amazing thing with how bad he’s looked in the recent past.

What’s Going On?
14. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.439 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Alex Rios, Chicago (.384 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Chase Headley, San Diego (.378 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
13. Carlos Lee, Houston (.230 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Yup, as boring as the tier above was, this tier is full of rock-em-sock-em peaks and valleys. Is Jason Heyward really an OF2 already? Will he be a top tier OF1 by the end of the year? He’s really surpassing even the most precocious of young stars with his performance to date. The best news is that he’s making adjustments on breaking balls. Alex Rios, Chase Headley? Finally? And Adam Jones and Carlos Lee may not be remotely close in terms of career arc, but they are looking in the same closet for their lost games. Hopefully for their owners they will find what they are looking for.

For Reals? Really Reals?
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.419 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Austin Jackson, Detroit (.414 wOBA, .307 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York (.415 wOBA, .330 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.422 wOBA, .363 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Vernon Wells, Toronto (.440 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Marlon Byrd has to count as the most surprising player in this tier full of surprises. There aren’t enough words for this space to unpack all that’s going on here, but you’ll see analysis on these guys here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. I promise.

Mariano Rivera |Yankees

With Mo experiencing some soreness in his left side, Joba Chamberlain got the chance to pick up a couple saves. Rivera’s injury isn’t considered serious, though, and the ageless wonder has a 9/2 K/BB and a 3.60 xFIP in nine innings pitched. Joba, meanwhile, has 9.49 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and a 3.27 xFIP in 12.1 IP. His curve and changeup have essentially been scrapped out of the ‘pen, as Chamberlain has gone to his 93-94 MPH fastball 65 percent and his 86 MPH slider 30 percent.

Joakim Soria |Royals

Soria was smacked around for 2 HR by the Rangers yesterday, but he has still been filthy overall. In 12 IP, The Mexicutioner has 15 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 1.86 xFIP. His outside swing rate (35%) is a career high, as is his 14.5 swinging strike rate. He’s pitching as well as he ever has.

Andrew Bailey |Athletics

The yet-to-be-scored-upon Bailey has a 3.64 xFIP on the year, with 5.06 K/9 and 0.84 BB/9 in 10.2 innings. The low K rate appears to be the product of Bailey placing the ball over the plate so often: his Zone% is 57.8 (48.2 big league average), and hitters have made contact with 87.7 percent of those in-zone offerings (Bailey’s Z-Contact was in the mid-seventies in 2009).

Rafael Soriano |Rays

The new Tampa closer is off to an OK start, with 8.25 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 4.20 xFIP. Curiously, Soriano’s swinging strike rate, 12.2% for his career, is just 7.5% in 2010. His contact rate is up nearly 10 percentage points as well. It’s just 12 innings, but it’s some worth monitoring.

Jonathan Papelbon |Red Sox

After posting a career-worst 3.98 xFIP in 2009, Papelbon is off to a poor start in 2010. In 15 frames, the part-time river dancer has 6.6 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and a 5.23 xFIP. A .204 BABIP has obscured the tepid start (his ERA is 1.80). Why the lack of K’s? Papelbon’s whiff rate on his four-seam fastball has declined from 10.4% in 2009 to 9.2% in 2010, per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool. That ’09 mark, in turn, was a decline from his 12.2% whiff rate in 2008.

Neftali Feliz/Frank Francisco | Rangers

Feliz is still getting most save ops for Texas, though Francisco is in the mix as well. The 22-year-old Feliz has been fantastic thus far, with 11.05 K/9, 1.84 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP. Averaging 96-97 MPH with his heater and mixing in high-70’s curves and high-80’s changeups, Feliz has a 14.4% swinging strike rate. He’s not afraid to challenge hitters: his zone% is 57.1%, about 9 percentage points above the big league average. About the only concern here is the very low ground ball rate (24.3).

Francisco, coming off of a 2009 in which he posted a 3.53 xFIP, has dished out plenty of free passes. In 12.1 IP, he has issued 5.84 BB/9. Hitters haven’t chased his stuff out of the zone: Francisco’s outside swing rate is just 16.1 percent in 2010. With fewer K’s than usual (8.03 K/9), his xFIP is 5.24.

David Aardsma |Mariners

Despite a rise in ERA from 2.52 in 2009 to 3.38 this season, Aardsma actually has a lower xFIP in 2010 (3.62, compared to 4.12 in ’09). He had a very low 4.2 home run per fly ball rate last year, but that has risen to 15.4% so far this year. Prior to reaching the M’s, Aardsma’s control came and went. But he showed signs of improvement last year and currently has a career-best 3.38 BB/9, with a healthy 65.8 first pitch strike percentage.

Bobby Jenks |White Sox

Jenks has had a strange season, as he has posted 12.27 K/9 while getting swinging strikes a mild 8.8 percent. His control hasn’t been as sharp as usual (4.91 BB/9, 45.8 Zone%), but he has yet to serve up a homer after having poor luck on fly balls last year (17 HR/FB%). Instead, Jenks has been plagued by a .428 BABIP this year, which explains the ERA (4.09)/xFIP (2.36) split. What does that all mean? Not much, probably. He’ll likely settle in as a mid-to-high-three’s xFIP pitcher.

Jose Valverde |Tigers

Valverde has experienced a bizarre beginning in Detroit. Traditionally, Papa Grande misses lots of bats (career 10.75 K/9) and gets few grounders (38.4 GB%). With the Tigers, Valverde has 4.26 K/9 and a 71.4% rate of worm burners in 12.2 innings. His swinging strike rate, 13.1% in 2009, is 5.6% in 2010. Valverde’s outside swing rate has been cut in half (32% in ’09, 15.7% in ’10). In terms of pitch selection, the Baseball Info Solutions data says he’s going to a mid-80’s splitter far more often. Pitch F/X data, meanwhile, says he has thrown nothing but fastballs (that seems fishy). What’s going on here, Tigers fans?

Kevin Gregg |Blue Jays

The free agent signee has taken a firm grip on Toronto’s closer gig, whiffing 11.57 batters per nine frames, walking 1.29 and inducing ground balls at a 60 percent clip in 14 innings of work. Gregg’s contact rate is a career-low 71.8 percent, and his outside swing rate is a career-best 31.4. In the past, he used a low-90’s fastball 60-65% of the time. With the Jays, Gregg has gone to an 87-88 MPH cutter over a quarter of the time. The 31-year-old won’t keep up the 1.82 xFIP pace. But his strong performance, backed by a change in approach, bodes well for his future.

Jon Rauch |Twins

Though he won’t be confused with a relief ace, Rauch has done an OK job filling in for Joe Nathan with 6.75 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 4.01 xFIP in 12 innings. As has usually been the case, Rauch is pounding the zone: 52.2 percent of his pitches have been over the plate, and his first pitch strike percentage is 64.6.

Brian Fuentes/Fernando Rodney |Angels

Fuentes, who served a DL stint in April with a strained back suffered while weight lifting, didn’t flex his muscles on the mound last year (4.94 xFIP). In 5.2 IP in 2010, he has a 7/3 K/BB. Speaking of overpaid relievers (cue Homer: “Mmmmm…saaaaves), Fernando Rodney has a shiny ERA (2.63) but a mediocre 4.35 xFIP, with 6.59 K/9 and 4.61 BB/9. Unless there are eight Al’s behind him when he pitches, Rodney’s not keeping the .123 BABIP.

Chris Perez |Indians

The former Cards prospect turned in a promising 2009 season (10.75 K/9 and a 3.98 xFIP), but Perez has been putrid while filling in for Kerry Wood. In 9.1 IP, he has 4.82 K/9, 5.79 BB/9 and a 5.99 xFIP. The control issues aren’t surprising, given his career 4.58 BB/9 in the majors and 6 BB/9 in the minors, but the lack of whiffs is disconcerting. Perez’s swinging strike rate, 9.4% in ’09, is just 4.4%. Wood (4.11 xFIP in 2009) didn’t lock games down last year and his rehab outings haven’t been sharp, but he’s nearing a return from a back injury.

Alfredo Simon |Orioles

With Mike Gonzalez (shoulder) on the shelf and Jim Johnson in Norfolk, the 29-year-old (tomorrow) Simon is getting the chance to close out games. A 6-4, 230 pound righty who previously passed through the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Texas organizations (mostly as a starter), Simon missed nearly all of 2009 following Tommy John surgery. Despite blistering fastball velocity and a hard splitter, Simon has never missed a ton of bats (6.9 K/9 in the minors). He did, however, begin the 2010 season with a 14/5 K/BB in 17 IP at Triple-A.

Strong Performers

Heath Bell |Padres

Bell boasts a 2.10 xFIP on the season, with 13.5 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Of course, just about every San Diego reliever is thrashing opposing batters: the Padres have a league-best 3.30 ‘pen xFIP.

Jonathan Broxton |Dodgers

Big Jon has a career-best 15.3 swinging strike rate this year, quite the accomplishment considering he posted 14.5% marks in 2008 and 2009. Batters are flailing at his stuff to the tune of a 40.7 outside swing percentage (27% MLB average). The result? a 1.21 xFIP, with 14.9 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9 in 9.2 IP.

Billy Wagner |Braves

Wagner continues pumping mid-90’s gas, getting swinging strikes 12.2 percent and inducing weak contact: his infield/fly percentage is 18.2 percent (the MLB average is around 11%). He hasn’t gotten many save ops, but he has a 3.08 xFIP, 13.5 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 10 innings of work.

Carlos Marmol |Cubs

In 13.2 innings, the Cubs’ stopper has punched out 27 hitters.. That’s 17.78 K/9 (eat your heart out, Broxton). Marmol’s swinging strike rate is 17.1 percent, and he’s actually getting ahead of hitters for a change (66.7 first pitch strike%, compared to a career 52.6% average). That has resulted in 4.61 BB/9, downright surgical control for a guy who issued nearly eight free passes per nine frames last year. His xFIP sits at two.

Brian Wilson |Giants

Wilson’s whiffing a career-high 10.97 per nine innings, with 4.22 BB/9 and a 3.10 xFIP in 10.2 innings. He’s getting plenty of grounders, with a 69.2 GB%, and he’s getting ahead in the count (73.3 first pitch strike percentage). While Wilson has typically used his mid-90’s fastball about 70 percent of the time, he’s going to his high-80’s cutter more than ever this season.

Chad Qualls |Diamondbacks

Huh? What’s Qualls doing here?

Arizona’s relief corps has a ghastly 5.12 xFIP for the season (only the Indians have a worse mark), but Qualls shouldn’t be discarded based on his 7.36 ERA. He sports a 3.16 xFIP in 11 IP, with 9 K/9, 3.27 BB/9 and typical ground ball tendencies (54.3 GB%). Needless to say, hits won’t continue to fall in against him 39.4 percent of the time, his 61.7% strand rate will rise, and he won’t give up home runs like he’s throwing underhanded on a little league field (25 HR/FB%). Available in nearly a quarter of Yahoo leagues, Qualls is a good buy-low candidate.

Francisco Rodriguez |Mets

K-Rod has a microscopic ERA (0.71 in 12.2 IP), but that has much to do with a .233 BABIP, a 92.9% strand rate and nary a home run surrendered. His xFIP is 4.07, so he’s not suddenly dealing like he did during his halcyon Angels days in the early-and-mid-aughts.

Matt Capps |Nationals

Capps is racking up saves and has a 1.10 ERA. To the former Pirate’s credit, he is pitching decently: 8.82 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 3.90 xFIP. Capps’ outside swing rate (39.5%) and swinging strike rate (11.3%) are career bests. But he’s not going to continue to strand 91.4% of base runners, and his HR/FB% of five will likely rise.

Leo Nunez |Marlins

Like the two guys ahead of him, Nunez has a fantastic ERA (0.79) and merely good component stats (8.74 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 3.79 xFIP). His strand rate sits at a perfect 100 percent, and his BABIP is .087. There’s a better chance of the Fish selling out all their remaining home games than Nunez keeping those numbers up.

Francisco Cordero |Reds

Cordero’s xFIPs over the 2007-2010 seasons? 2.82, 3.98, 4.06 and 4.37. He’s not a bad option, but the 35-year-old (this week) shouldn’t be confused with an elite-level reliever. In 16.1 IP, Cordero has 8.27 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.

Matt Lindstrom |Astros

After posting mediocre peripherals with the Marlins in 2008 (4.24 xFIP) and 2009 (4.65), Lindstrom has started his Astros career with a 3.02 xFIP in 12 IP. He has posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9, with a 58.3 GB% that’s well above his 47.2% career average. According to his Pitch F/X page, Lindstrom is going to a two-seamer, with more horizontal and less vertical break, this season. His first pitch strike percentage was just 54.2 last year, but it’s up to 66% in 2010.

Ryan Franklin |Cardinals

Whatever Faustian bargain Franklin made last year to avoid homers (3.2 HR/FB% in 2009), it has carried over to 2010: he has yet to give up a round-tripper in 12 innings. His control has been fantastic (no walks, 73.9 first pitch strike%), and his xFIP is 3.76.

Franklin Morales |Rockies

The southpaw with the herky-jerky delivery is missing the zone often (6.55 BB/9, 50.9 first pitch strike%), but he hasn’t compensated by missing bats (6.55 K/9, 5.4 swinging strike rate). It’s just 11 innings, but Morales’ 6.46 xFIP suggests that he still has a ways to go. Huston Street, meanwhile, is nearing a return from a shoulder injury.

Octavio Dotel |Pirates

Dotel hasn’t been as bad as his 8.74 ERA suggests: quirky BABIP (.411), left on base (50.6%) and HR/FB (16.7%) can happen in a small sample size of 11.1 innings. His xFIP is 4.45, as Dotel is missing plenty of lumber like usual (11.91 K/9) and walking plenty as well (4.76 BB/9).

Keep a close eye on Evan Meek, the 26-year-old former Rule V pick from the Rays. Equipped with low-to-mid-90’s heat, a low-90’s cutter, and low-80’s breaking stuff, Meek has long missed bats and racked up ground balls. His control, however, held him back. Not in 2010. In 17 IP, Meek has a K per inning and 2.65 BB/9, retaining a strong 53.5 GB% and posting a 2.94 xFIP.

Trevor Hoffman |Brewers

With a 6.60 xFIP in 10 innings, the 43-year-old changeup artist is scuffling. Tossing his fastball more and his signature off-speed pitch less, Hoffman’s swinging strike rate has dipped from 10.6% in 2009 to 5.4% this year. Always an extreme fly ball pitcher, Hoffman’s ground ball rate in 2010 is 12.8%. Carlos Villanueva and LaTroy Hawkins are possibilities if Trevor Time continues to be a nightmare for the Brew Crew.

Brad Lidge/Jose Contreras |Phillies

Folding chair 1, Ryan Madson 0. Following surgery to repair his broken right toe (no word on his bruised ego), Madson will be out a minimum of two months.

Speaking of wounded egos, Lidge returned to action on April 30th after spending the first month of the season rehabbing from offseason elbow and knee injuries. So far, he’s sitting 92.5 MPH with his fastball, continuing a decline that has seen his heater dip from an average of 96 MPH in 2005. Lidge wasn’t 7.21 ERA bad in ’09, but he’s got a lot to prove considering the 4.76 xFIP that he posted.

Contreras, meanwhile, is dealing out of the ‘pen. The 38 year-old has 14 K’s and no walks in 8.2 IP so far, with an average fastball velocity of 94.8 MPH and a slider at 88-89 MPH (he was 90-92 MPH with the fastball as a starter, and 85-85 with the slider).

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week Six.

Right now only 23 pitchers are scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. Of those, 12 are currently starting in less than 10 percent of leagues while five are active in 70 percent or more. So, there are slim pickings in the middle class, or where I usually try to focus on for this column.

Aaron Cook – He has allowed five runs in four of his last six starts, including his last outing at Petco. Cook gets two home starts this week, where he has actually fared much better this year. But he opens up against Roy Halladay. If that was not bad enough, Cook is 1-5 lifetime against the Phillies. His second start is against the surging Scott Olsen. It all adds up to a pitcher to reserve for this week.

Wade LeBlanc – You will not find many pitchers with a .353 BABIP and a 1.16 ERA after four games, but that is exactly what LeBlanc has managed to do so far this season. He achieves that thanks to the one-two combination of zero home runs allowed and a 90.3 LOB%. After opening with three of his first four games in the friendly confines of Petco, LeBlanc hits the road to face the red-hot Barry Zito in his first start. He is back home against the Dodgers in his second game, but LeBlanc is 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his brief career against Los Angeles. Put him on the bench if you have other options this week.

John Maine – Since I selected him as a “Hunch” 10 days ago, Maine has gone 1-0 with 15 Ks and 5 BB in his last 12 IP after a brutal start to his season. He still has not recovered the lost velocity on his fastball, but he proved he could pitch effectively without it. In his last game, Maine threw fastballs on 92 of his 102 pitches, averaged 89.19 with his heater, allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP and lost a win when the bullpen blew a two-run lead. Maine has favorable matchups this week so make sure he is in your starting lineup.

Scott Olsen – Everyone knows about the no-hitter he carried into the eighth inning in his last start, but that was the third straight solid outing in a row for Olsen, who is pitching like he is ticked off that he started the season in the minors. He is 2-0 with 5 BB and 20 Ks in his last 20.1 IP. Olsen faces an uphill task with two road starts this week but ride the hot streak and make sure he is in your lineup. His best pitch is his slider and Olsen faces the Mets and Rockies this week, two teams that are below-average against that pitch.

Jake Westbrook – Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Westbrook is on there for a reason as he has not delivered good results this year, with an 0-2 record and a 5.74 ERA. But there are some encouraging signs for the veteran. His 6.03 K/9 is his highest since 2001 and he still gets a ton of ground balls. Westbrook is being hurt now by the gopher ball, as he carries an 18.2 HR/FB ratio. He squares off against the Royals and Orioles this week, two teams in the middle of the pack in HR hit, and who have combined for a 19-39 record. If you are looking for a pitcher to stream this week for his two starts, Westbrook has a good shot to pick up a win and hopefully not hut too bad in the other categories.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week Six are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Garza, Hanson, Lee, Zito, Billingsley, Lilly, Vazquez, Arroyos, Robertson, Willis, Cahill, R. Lopez, D. Davis, Kendrick, Atilano, Ohlendorf, D. Hernandez, G. Smtih.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week Four pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 6.94 ERA, 1.629 WHIP (2 starts)
Davis – Advised to start. 2 W, 9 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP (2)
Duke – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 10.80 ERA, 2.400 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 5.06 ERA, 1.313 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.769 WHIP (2)

This update will have to-date wOBA with RoS projections, too!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.445 wOBA, .414 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.310 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.380 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.459 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Nothing to report here, other than an ongoing battle to determine the best real-life young second baseman in the American League, with Boston and New York in distinct camps. It seems that once you include defense the battle shifts north slightly but significantly. For our purposes, it’s nice to note Cano’s strong batted ball profile and career-high flyball percentage, which should both serve him well this year.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.295 wOBA, .336 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.384 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.326 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.327 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.317 wOBA, .351 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .359 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

There’s some movement here because Roberts is still out and Zobrist is still swinging a limp noodle. Hill lost some ISO too, but he could still put up 2007 stats and be very helpful at this position. The biggest news is the debut of Ian Stewart in this tier. Stewart cut the K’s without losing the power, which means he could have a nicer batting average this year. Since the power and speed are tantalizing, he’s the real streaking youth on this list.

Streaking Youth:
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.369 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.433 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
14. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.280 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Look at what we have here. Kelly Johnson actually bests Ian Stewart by jumping two tiers and streaking right into the upside tier. If he had some speed he might even blow by Weeks, who is doing his customary batting average slump currently but still has his power and speed combo to boast of. Beckham is in danger of dropping out of this tier right here, because he is pressing and striking out too often and just doesn’t look great at the plate right now.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.327 wOBA, .340 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.300 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
16. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.353 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Call this the no-power no-speed tier. These guys really should have Martin Prado in here too. Not sure what else to say, really, except that Polanco has a healthy offense around him that boosts his value.

Upside to Join the Top:
17. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.392 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.371 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.361 wOBA, .340 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
20. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.237 wOBA, .312 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
21. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.432 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
22. Chris Getz, Kansas City (.237 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Once your season-long power slump is bad enough that it starts affecting your ZiPs RoS projections, it has to be noted. Jose Lopez isn’t even projected to put up his career ISO the rest of the way, so it’s looking like it might be a bad year for him. Because he’s shown more power in the past than Callaspo, he will probably outperform Callaspo… probably. At least the Royals showed confidence in Callaspo by demoting Alex Gordon. (That’s what they were doing, right?) I also know at least one commenter that will be happy to see Chris Getz on this list, and with 2% ownership in Yahoo, he might still be out there for the taking. He could still best his .275/20 SB projections because most of his slump so far looks BABIP-induced.

Mike Leake went from Arizona State to the Arizona Fall League to Goodyear, Arizona to Cincinnati in the blink of an eye. The Reds selected the 6-1, 190 pound right-hander with the eighth pick in the 2009 draft, and after impressive fall league and spring training performances, Leake cracked the major league rotation to open 2010.

Leading up to the draft, Baseball America said the following about Leake:

What he lacks in pure physicality, he makes up for in athleticism and results. Leake pounds the strike zone with a fastball that sits 88-92 mph. He can dial it up to 94, but prefers to work at lower speeds to get more movement. Throwing from a lower three-quarters arm slot, he gets a lot of armside run and sink on his fastball that results in a lot of groundballs. He also throws a changeup, slider and cutter that grade out as above-average offerings.

In five starts so far, Leake has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 4.28 BB/9, with a strong 54.5 percent ground ball rate. His ERA (2.94) outpaces his expected FIP (4.37), as Leake has benefitted from a low .263 batting average on balls in play, a 6.9 home run per fly ball rate (the big league average is around 10-12 percent) and a 77.7 percent strand rate that’s probably going to come down some. That’s not to take a negative outlook on his start: for a guy with very limited professional experience to reach the majors and perform at a league-average clip from the get-go is quite impressive.

Leake has placed 48.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (right at the MLB average), while getting a first pitch strike 58.9 percent (57.7% MLB average). After issuing 12 free passes against the Cubs and Pirates, Leake has shown much better control over his last three starts. Hitters are making contact 82.8 percent of the time (80.7% MLB average), and tallying swinging strikes 6.4 percent (8.3% MLB average).

That BA scouting report noted Leake’s laundry list of pitches, and the Sun Devils star hasn’t been bashful about mixing all of them into his game plan. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, Leake is showcasing an 88-89 MPH sinker, an 80-81 MPH slider, an 83 MPH changeup, a 77 MPH curveball, an 89 MPH cutter and an 88-89 MPH four-seam fastball (it could probably be lumped in with the sinker, but the pitch has slightly less tailing action in on righty batters). Here are the strike and whiff percentages for the pitches so far, compared to the major league average:

Leake’s sinker is getting strikes, if few whiffs. His slider and changeup have been excellent, getting batters to swing and miss at rates well above the major league average. Those hitters are having a hard time laying off the slider and change: they have swung at the slider 54.1 percent (47.7% MLB average) and the changeup 60 percent (48.1% MLB average). The less-utilized curve and cutter aren’t hitting the mark or fooling opponents.

Overall, Leake’s beginning in the majors has to be considered a success. He’s throwing strikes after a bumpy beginning and getting plenty of grounders. The 22 year-old hasn’t missed a lot of bats, and he might not be a huge strikeout pitcher in the long run. But with an expansive repertoire, average K rates, good control and a tendency to keep the ball down, Leake could become a poor man’s Tim Hudson.

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a rough start at the plate. The O’s currently have a .308 team wOBA, ranking 11th in the American League. Baltimore batters have hacked at 30 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, a mark topped only by the Blue Jays and Royals. In particular, the outfielders have made outs at a dizzying clip: Orioles’ fly catchers have a collective .300 wOBA, besting only the Athletics among Junior Circuit clubs.

Expect that mark to improve in the weeks and months to come. Matt Klaassen recently discussed the poor luck on balls put in play endured by OF/DH Luke Scott, but Scott isn’t the only O’s hitter whose underlying performance is better than the ugly line that he currently holds. Nolan Reimold sits at the Mendoza Line, but he and his fantasy owners should expect that to soon change.

Reimold, 26, is a 2005 second-round pick out of Bowling Green State who compiled a .286/.383/.521 triple-slash in the minors. Though he showed quality secondary skills (12.5 percent walk rate, .235 Isolated Power), Reimold’s ascent to the majors was slowed by a series of injuries: foot and back problems in 2006 and a strained oblique in 2007.

Reaching Baltimore in May of 2009, Reimold put up a .279/.365/.466 line in 411 plate appearances during his rookie season. He popped 15 home runs with a .187 ISO, walking in 11.4 percent of his PA while posting a .365 wOBA. Injuries again crept into the conversation, as Reimold was shut down in mid-September with a left Achilles ailment that required surgery.

In 2010, the hulking 6-4 hitter was expected to be an offensive asset by ZiPS, CHONE and (especially) the FANS:

ZiPS: .273/.345/.440, .346 wOBA
CHONE: .275/.355/.477, .362 wOBA
FANS: .281/.370/.484, .372 wOBA

However, even after going deep off of David Robertson on Cinco de Mayo, Reimold owns a .200/.305/.357 line in 82 PA (.299 wOBA). The former Falcon’s Yahoo ownership has taken a dive to 26 percent. Look a little deeper, though, and it appears that there’s not much to worry about.

Reimold’s rate of free passes taken is 12.2%, up from last season. His K rate is slightly higher (24.3% in ’10, 21.5% in ’09) and his power is down a bit (.157 ISO). But neither of those changes are drastic, and given the sample size, they’re hardly alarming.

The biggest difference between Reimold’s debut and his 2010 season to date is his BABIP: .316 in 2009, and just .231 this year. Nothing in his batted ball profile has altered dramatically. He’s hitting more fly balls (which do have a lower BABIP than grounders), but those extra flys are in place of infield fly balls, the closest thing to a gimme out on a ball put in play. Point to the line drive rate if you’d like, but one person’s line drive can be another’s fly ball.

ZiPS projects Reimold for a .265/.338/.434 (.341 wOBA) performance for the rest of 2010. Personally, I’d take the over on that line if he has no further injury problems. Reimold’s misfortune provides fantasy owners with the chance to pick up a good hitter at a discount price.