By the time a top prospect graces a major league field, avid fans can recite just about any detail regarding that player. Height, weight, round drafted (or country signed from), minor league stats, scouting reports, what he likes to eat for lunch..you name it, and it’s known.

With fantasy players going to CIA-like lengths to get the scoop, looking to identify The Next Big Thing before anyone else, expectations for those prospects soar. Sometimes, those players scuffle at first, get hurt or don’t get an opportunity to play every day. They fade from a person’s consciousness, as attention is turned to the next crop of “can’t miss” youngsters.

Today, I’d like to turn your attention back toward some names that everyone swooned over a few years back, but have yet to reach their potential for one reason or another. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Lineup, with CHONE projections for the 2010 season included.

Catcher

J.R. Towles, Astros

CHONE: .252/.332/.409, .326 wOBA

Towles’ minor league track record suggests that he could be better than the average backstop with the bat, but a string of injuries, an ugly line in a small amount of big league playing time (largely the product of a .218 BABIP) and the presence of 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro have torpedoed his status within the organization. It’s difficult to find a guy capable of league-average offense at catcher, so the 26 year-old shouldn’t be written off just yet.

First Base

Jeff Clement, Pirates

CHONE:.264/.342/.460, .350 wOBA

Formerly a catcher, Clement was viewed as a franchise-type player when the Mariners selected him with the third pick in the 2005 draft. However, knee injuries and spotty receiving skills caused him to fall down the defensive spectrum. Now that he’s apparently through strapping on shin guards, Clement will need to slug his way to a big league career at first base. He’s a career .279/.368/.492 hitter in 1,500+ plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Clement, 26, figures to get his first crack at an everyday job if Pittsburgh feels comfortable with Garrett Jones in right field.

Second Base

Sean Rodriguez, Rays

CHONE: .241/.327/.447, .338 wOBA

Snagged from the Angels in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez has beat the bejesus out of the baseball in Triple-A (.298/.396/.620 line in 750 PA), though Salt Lake City (the Halos’ highest minor league affiliate) is a cozy place for a batter to take his cuts. The 25 year-old doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time, but he has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield. With Tampa, Rodriguez will perhaps fill in at the keystone when Ben Zobrist plays the outfield, while catching an occasional start at other positions when a regular needs a breather.

Shortstop

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates

CHONE: .257/.303/.389, .304 wOBA

Slim pickings here. That CHONE projection would actually constitute a great leap forward for the former Cub and Mariner, who has a career .272 wOBA in the majors. Cedeno just plain hasn’t been able to handle big league fastballs to this point: per 100 pitches, he has been two runs below average when a pitcher reaches back and fires. He has hacked first and asked questions later, too, chasing 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Cedeno, 27, will “battle” Bobby Crosby in spring training for a starting spot.

Last we heard, both Ronny and Bobby are trying to board Oceanic Flight 815, hoping to crash on the “The Island” back in 2004. I’m not sure that even Jacob or The Man in Black could help these two, though.

Third Base

Alex Gordon, Royals

CHONE: .267/.353/.435, .350 wOBA

The fervor surrounding Gordon never reached Wieters-esque levels, but the Golden Spikes Award Winner and Nebraska star was supposed to mash from the moment the K.C. home crowd gave him a standing ovation in 2007. Gordon’s ’09 campaign was marred by a hip injury, but it’s important to keep in mind that a “disappointing” major league performance to this point has resulted in a 98 wRC+ (two percent below the MLB average).

The 26 year-old lefty batter must show improvement versus breaking stuff, particularly of the southpaw variety, but CHONE projects an offensive showing that’s 14 percent better than the big league average next season (114 wRC+).

Outfield

Wladimir Balentien, Reds

CHONE: .265/.342/.487, .358 wOBA

Traded from the Mariners to the Reds last year, Balentien is a hulking righty hitter who has impaled pitchers at Triple-A (.283/.359/.534 in 819 PA) and flailed in the majors (.221/.281/.374 in 559 PA, with a 72 wRC+). He hasn’t exactly crushed fastballs. But against curves and sliders, Wlad has looked like a beer league softball player who hit the kegs a little overzealously in the early innings. His contact rate to this point is a Custian 69.8 percent (80-81% MLB average).

Still, Balentien is a 25 year-old with a good record in the high minors. He’ll fight for playing time in left field with a laundry list of others, including Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes, and possibly Chris Heisey.

Delmon Young, Twins

CHONE: .305/.339/.454, .346 wOBA

Remember “Delmon Young, the next Albert Belle“? The first overall pick in the 2003 draft earned the adoration of prospect mavens by throttling pitchers at minor league levels where he was several years younger than the competition. Sure, his strike zone was expansive, but it was easy to dream of a day when he’d be an all-around force at the plate.

Now 24, Young enters the 2010 season with a career 95 wRC+ in the majors. The problems: a tendency to swing at anything from North Dakota to Wisconsin (career 40.4 Outside-Swing% and a four percent walk rate) and roll over the ball (50 percent groundball rate). It also doesn’t help that he has played DH-worthy defense (career -18.9 UZR/150 in LF). He’s not doomed yet, but there’s a good chance that he’s the next Jose Guillen instead of the next Belle

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

CHONE: .284/.345/.423, .338 wOBA

Once a premium center field prospect with the Mets, Milledge is now a left fielder on his third organization. His career wRC+ is just 93, as he has often strayed from the zone (31.6 Outside-Swing%) and rarely popped the ball over the fence or into the gaps (.132 ISO). The soon-to-be 25 year-old doesn’t project as a standout defender, so he’ll need to up the offensive ante in Pittsburgh. Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez both have ETAs of late 2010 or early 2011.

There is no greater intersection of fantasy and ‘real’ baseball analysis than the Spring Position Battle. How better to reap the rewards of good number-crunching than the correct prediction of the winner of the lion’s share of playing time at a given position? It’s one of fantasy baseball’s best moments.

And there’s no easier place to look for this feeling than the worst teams in baseball. The worse the team, the younger the team, the more likely they’ll allow an inexperienced young man to steer the helm at a given position. The Pirates, for example, currently have 30(!) players with three years or fewer experience on their 40-man roster.

Follow this string of thought to the end, and you’ll inevitably end up looking at the team being run by the worst GM in baseball (if Tim Marchman is to be believed). There might be some debate about whether or not it’s more important to feature your best players up the middle, but it’s got to be a given that it’s not a good sign to go into camp not knowing who is going to make up your keystone combo. (The name of that combo should really be a clue.)

So we come to the Royals. At the incumbent starting shortstop position stands Yuniesky Betancourt. By WAR, he was the worst position player that qualified for the batting title last year, costing the Royals $2.2 million on top of his $3.375 million salary. He accomplished this (little) feat by walking only 4.1% of the time while also displaying below-average speed (3.9 speed score, 5.0 average) and power (.106 ISO, .155 MLB average). The worst part for such a ‘key’ defensive position? He had a -23.9 UZR/150 last year, which would be less worrisome if he didn’t also feature a negative rating for his career. I’m struggling to find something good to say, but apparently his demeanor can be even worse than his performance.

Let’s just say he doesn’t offer too much of an obstacle, should, say, Mike Aviles step to the fore. Aviles was once a too-old for his leagues prospect that tore his way through to the major leagues with good contact rates and not much else. He was once over-rated, yes, but now seems under-rated. His injury hurt his good contact rates (90.7% in the zone down to 85.6% last year) and sapped his average power (.155 ISO down to .067 last year). As exhibits in his favor, I submit his minor league ISO (.167) as well as minor league walk and strikeout rates that were virtually identical to his rookie year numbers. Aviles may not have been as good as he looked his rookie year, but he wasn’t as bad as he was last year.

In defense of his defense, there’s no real evidence that it’s terrible, despite the fact that he’s played all over the diamond and his general manager had the (misguided) idea that he needed to acquire another shortstop. His UZR/150 was great in his rookie year (+31.6 UZR/150) and bad last year (-12.7 UZR/150), but Total Zone had him as a positive defender at shortstop in the minors. The Fan Scouting Report pegged him as better than Betancourt even in his poor ’09. Aviles scored better than his competitor/teammate in every category… but arm strength. And now he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, we must consider the case of Cesar Izturis, who had TJ surgery in 2005 and last year the fans say he sported an arm that was a little better than Stephen Drew‘s and a little worse than Jason Bartlett’s. Izturis had surgery on 9/16/2005 and returned in mid-June 2006. Aviles had his surgery 9/07/2009.

The normal caveats apply. This is is the Royals, we have no idea what’s going on at second base with Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz (a post for another time), and every recovering arm is different, but in the interest of being unequivocal: By mid-June Mike Aviles should be starting at shortstop for the Royals.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)

Utley is the clear winner at this position, both for his individual potential and for the offensive protection that he has around him in the Phillies lineup. He has 25-30 homer potential and he is one of the few second basemen that could produce both 100 runs scored and RBI. His 23 steals were the icing on the cake in ’09 but don’t count on him breaking the 20-mark again.

Kinsler is another second baseman that benefits from a good hitting environment, and a solid lineup. He hit just .253 in ’09 but he produced a 30-30 season and is just 27 years old. Don’t be shocked if he produces his first 100 RBI season in 2010. Roberts is starting to get a little gray around the edges but he’s also very consistent and has appeared in 155+ games for three straight seasons. Of concern, though, is the dwindling stolen base totals from 50 to 40 to 30 over the past three seasons.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
5. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
7. Aaron Hill , Toronto (.357 wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips , Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)
9. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)

These middle options were the hardest to rank and you could probably mix numbers four through eight and I wouldn’t argue with you too strongly. Although Cano produced bigger numbers in ’09, you have to be worried about his motivation and consistency. Pedroia is a safer pick but the upside is not as big. Phillips is another player who worries me a bit and I think he’s still a little overrated based on his 30-30 season in ’07. With that said, don’t sneeze at a 20-20 second baseman.

Hill has the potential to be one of the most overrated players in 2010 fantasy drafts, thanks to his 36 homers and 108 RBI. On the plus side, he showed a power boost in ’07, as well, but his ’08 season was ruined by a concussion. With that said, 20 homers and 80 RBI is probably a more realistic projection for the upcoming season. Zobrist is another second baseman who is probably coming off of a career year, but he has some positional flexibility; His minor league numbers did not hint at that type of MLB offense. Uggla is going to hurt you in the batting average category but he’s also the safest bet amongst keystone players to repeat 30 homers.

The Leftovers:
10. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
11. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
12. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)
13. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
15. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

As long as Lopez maintains his second base eligibility (and he shouldn’t become a full-time first baseman in Seattle in ’10), he has value based on his power. I expect a bounce-back season from Kendrick in ’10 but his value is almost all batting average (maybe some runs too). It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays this season and if it will have any effect on Hudson’s play. Polanco is going to be a weak third base fantasy option, but he has value as long as the second-base eligibility remains; He’ll benefit greatly from hitting ahead of Utley and Howard. Stewart has the potential to offer versatility on your roster with the ability to play second base and third base (as well as the outfield in some leagues). Weeks is a wild card.

Up Next: The Third Basemen

One of the most common reader requests here at RotoGraphs is to have more information on auctions. Unfortunately, it has been a few years since I have participated in a fantasy baseball auction. But with the availability now of auction mocks on several sites, I thought it was time to get back to that format. Last night I participated in a 12-team mock auction over at ESPN. I played this pretty straight, just trying to accumulate value. I ended up with this team:

Gavin Floyd – $9
Matt Holliday $28
Ichiro Suzuki $22
Justin Verlander $18
Robinson Cano $19
Ryan Zimmerman $20
Carlos Lee $17
Johan Santana $15
Josh Johnson $15
Bobby Abreu $14
Jay Bruce $12
Adam Dunn $16
Francisco Cordero $12
Jonathan Papelbon $12
Miguel Montero $9
Rafael Soriano $8
Juan Rivera $2
Ryan Theriot $1
Everth Cabrera $2
Paul Konerko $1
John Maine $1
Felipe Paulino $1

I left money on the table, which shows how rusty I was at this auction thing. It was a typical Stage 1 auction, where owners spent too much early and values were to be had in the middle and the end of the proceedings. Several players went for over $50, which seems hard to justify in a 12-team mixed league.

For my guide, I was using the auction values by veteran fantasy player Lenny Melnick, published over at FantasyPros911.com on the premium side. My team accumulated $79 of excess value over Melnick’s projections, with only Montero, Rivera, Maine and Paulino not providing me profit over his prices. I made a mistake on Montero, not realizing that Kurt Suzuki was still available but I think the price I got him for was acceptable. I was looking for power late, which made Rivera worthwhile. And I like both Maine and Paulino if they can stay healthy this year.

Mainly, I used this draft to get reacquainted with auctions. From now on, I will definitely write more about auction prices and strategy. If there is anything in particular that you would like to see covered in the future, please note it in the comments.

Every fantasy owner has their personal list of prospects that they follow throughout the season, waiting to pounce on them should they be called up. Sure, everyone had guys like Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, and Buster Posey on their list, but there is always a few fringe prospects that could be of interest that no one else is thinking about. For me, one of those guys is Tony Gwynn, Jr. Following the 2006 season, in which he hit .300/.360/.396 with 30 steals in Triple-A, I was hooked. I liked him more for his name value than his production, but was interested in following his development nonetheless.

During 249 MLB games scattered across four seasons, Gwynn has been unimpressive. He has posted a career line of .261/.331/.326, good (bad?) enough for a wOBA of .298 and a wRC+ of 85. However, his career 9.2% walk rate is a plus, as is his 23% career line drive rate.

In 607 minor league games, Gwynn stole 151 bases in 205 tries (73.6% success rate). In 249 games in the majors, Gwynn has stolen 25 bases in 35 tries, coming in at a lower 71.4% success rate. A stolen base rate dropping once a player hits the big time is to be expected, due to veteran pitchers who can keep runners honest and catchers with better arms behind the plate. The big problem is that he is not being given the green light enough, and is on pace to attempt approximately half the steals he did in the minors over the same period of games.

Even though Gwynn has consistently hit below league average, his defense will keep him around in the big leagues. Both the FANS and CHONE have Gwynn at 5 runs below replacement level at the plate in 2010, yet both have him as a 2 WAR player. The CHONE projections have him with less than 500 plate appearances, so they are not inflated by unlikely playing time.

Talking to people that know the Padres far better than I do, it sounds like Gwynn will be given every opportunity to take the center field job. I’m still skeptical, but if he can get ample playing time, a .270 average with 15 steals is not out of the question, and will provide some value in NL-only and deep leagues.

With the departure of delicate-yet-dominant righty Rich Harden via free agency, the Chicago Cubs have an open competition at the back end of the rotation. The candidates range from toxic (Carlos Silva) to infuriating (Jeff Samardzija) to intriguing (Tom Gorzelanny). Here’s a brief run-down of the hurlers vying to take the ball every fifth day for the Cubbies.

Picked up in the Milton Bradley deal with the Mariners, Silva should come with a Mr. Yuck sticker attached to him. The sinker-centric right-hander, 31 in April, was formerly a serviceable starter with the Twins, using pinpoint control (career 1.71 BB/9) to overcome an inability to make batters whiff (3.78 K/9).

The M’s inked Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract prior to the 2008 season, and he’s been beaten like he stole something ever since. An incredibly high BABIP and low strand rate masked what was another Silva-esque performance in ’08 (6.46 ERA, 4.64 xFIP), but he went on the DL with right biceps tendinitis in August. In 2009, he threw 30.1 grisly innings (5.53 xFIP) before succumbing to a right rotator cuff injury that limited him to just two more major league appearances. CHONE projects a 4.67 FIP next year. Even if he returns to form, he’s not a fantasy option.

Like Silva, Samardzija has come to be defined by the big bucks handed out for his services. The Cubs gave the former Notre Dame wide receiver a $10 million big league contract to eschew the NFL. Several years later, Chicago still isn’t sure what it has in the 25 year-old righty.

Samardzija had an underwhelming full-season debut in 2007, punching out 4.1 batters per nine innings, walking 2.8 per nine and posting a 4.73 FIP in 141.2 IP between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. Baseball America liked his heater for its combination of velocity and sink, but panned his inconsistent slider and changeup/splitter. “Samardzija,” BA said, is “still capable of becoming a frontline starter, a closer or a bust.”

In 2008, Samardzija missed more bats, but at the expense of control. Tossing 113.1 innings split between Double-A and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, he had 6.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and a 4.60 FIP. The Golden Domer also logged 27.1 major league innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen, with 8.13 K/9, 4.88 BB/9 and a 4.34 xFIP.

This past year, Samardzija shuttled between Iowa and Chicago. In 89 frames at Triple-A, he struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings, issuing 2.73 BB/9 and compiling a 4.37 FIP. His major league stints didn’t go nearly as well. Samardzija was smacked for a 5.16 xFIP in 34.2 IP, with 5.45 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.

Samardzija’s low-80’s slider (+0.17 runs per 100 pitches in the majors) and mid-80’s splitter (+0.95) have been effective, but his 93-94 MPH fastball (-1.09) hasn’t been as advertised. CHONE’s projection for Samardzija comes in relief, and it’s not especially sunny: a 4.74 FIP, with 6.92 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9. If you tack something like 0.75 to one run on to that to account for a shift in roles (The Book found that relievers shifting into starting roles generally perform about one run worse per nine innings), then things start getting ugly. Samardzija might be best off pitching in short stints.

Gorzelanny, meanwhile, was once a prized prospect in the Pirates organization. Armed with low-90’s velocity and a sharp slider, the left-hander displayed an exciting combo of force and finesse as he climbed the minor league ladder.

He pitched adequately in the bigs in 2006 and 2007 (with xFIPs of 4.88 and 4.82, respectively). However, a hefty workload in ’07 seemed to sap Gorzelanny of his former stuff: his fastball fell to the 88 MPH range and he walked nearly six batters per nine innings in 2008, posting a 5.84 xFIP in the process. He was booted to Triple-A in July (where he showed a pulse: 35 IP, 33/4 K/BB, 2.11 FIP) and suffered a left middle finger injury that sidelined him in September.

This past season, Gorzelanny started games at Triple-A Indianapolis, mopped up and got spot-starts for the Bucs in the majors, and was shipped to Chicago (along with LHP John Grabow) for righties Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, plus minor league INF Josh Harrison. The Cubs also split Gorzo’s appearances between the bullpen and the rotation.

The 27 year-old performed admirably at the Triple-A level, whiffing 8.79 per nine innings, walking 3.1 and compiling a 2.87 FIP in 87 innings. In 47 major league innings (seven starts, 15 relief appearances), Gorzelanny pleasantly punched out a batter per inning, while handing out 3.26 walks per nine with a 3.73 xFIP. His fastball velocity crept back up to 91 MPH. For 2010, CHONE forecasts a 4.43 FIP for Gorzelanny as a starter, with 7.39 K/9 and 3.61 BB/9.

It’s worth nothing that while “who’s the fifth guy?” makes for good spring training copy, every team ends up relying on those sixth, seventh and even eighth starters at some point. With Big Z becoming familiar with the DL (shoulder in ’08, hamstring and back in ’09) and Ted Lilly working his way back from knee and shoulder ailments, odds are that Chicago’s starting depth will be tested. Gorzelanny’s revived repertoire makes him the best best of those back-end options.

Ever since the Los Angeles Dodgers took him with the 19th overall pick in the 2002 draft, first baseman James Loney has been expected to develop power to complement a fluid, high-contact swing.

The 6-3, 220 pound lefty batter rarely hit with authority in the minor leagues, putting up a cumulative .296/.363/.430 triple-slash and a mild .134 Isolated Power. Loney reached L.A. in 2006, and he actually made those scouts look prescient by putting a charge into the ball in limited playing time in both ’06 and 2007. Since then, however, Loney’s power has been sorely lacking:

Here are Loney’s ISO and wRC+ figures during his big league career:

2006: 111 PA, .275 ISO, 132 wRC+
2007: 375 PA, .206 ISO, 140 wRC+
2008: 651 PA, .145 ISO, 106 wRC+
2009: 652 PA, .118 ISO, 104 wRC+

Over the past two seasons, the 25 year-old has the lowest ISO among first basemen (.132). It’s not particularly close, either: Todd Helton (.149 ISO) and Billy Butler (.163 ISO) are the next low men on the first base power totem pole.

As one might expect, Loney pulls the ball less than the average lefty batter, while hitting more to the opposite field (data courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

The pull field (right field for Loney) is where most batters put up their power numbers. Loney is no different. Actually, he has been outstanding when he laces the horsehide to right field. But, in addition to pulling the ball less often and hitting to the relatively punch less opposite field more than most, Loney has been well below-average on pitches hit up the middle:

As you can see, the pull field is where it’s at for batters (sorry, Mr. Bernazard). The average lefty hitter posts a .399 wOBA on pulled pitches, .360 to center and .316 to left field. Loney is a monster when he pulls (.430 wOBA), and he’s slightly above-average to left (.319 wOBA-but again, opposite field hitting is weaker overall, and Loney hits more pitches in that direction than the average lefty). But to center, his bat barely makes a peep (.325 wOBA).

Loney does make scads of contact. During his career, he has put the bat on the ball 93.5 percent of the time on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 74.4 percent on offerings tossed out of the zone (60-61 percent MLB average). His contact rate is the 20th-highest in the majors over the past two seasons. However, that contact-oriented approach likely comes at the expense of extra-base clout.

He did do a better job of laying off junk pitches last year, which led to a career-high 10.7 percent walk rate. But even with an improved eye, he posted a .281/.357/.399 line at a position where the overall line was .277/.362/.483.

For 2010, CHONE projects Loney to hit .294/.355/.446 (116 wRC+). Those are essentially his career numbers to this point: .295/.354/.451, with a 114 wRC+. Loney’s RBI totals might lull fantasy players into thinking he’s a good option, but relative to the position that he plays, L.A.’s first baseman just hasn’t stacked up thus far. While he’s still young enough to show further improvement, Loney needs to lash the ball more frequently in order to truly be an asset.

This is the first part of a series that will check up on injured players and recent injuries during spring training.

– Brandon Webb is working his way back from shoulder issues, and threw 43 pitches in a bullpen session on Sunday. He also threw 45 pitches in a previous bullpen session on Thursday. The D’Backs are trying to get him ready for some in-game appearances by mid-March, but that may be far too optimistic. Arizona has a shot to be good this year, and if they are smart they will baby him along and attempt to get 25-28 starts out of Webb this year. All looks well with Webb, but that’s what we thought going into last year, and continued to think that at times during the rehab process. If he looks healthy, take a shot at Webb.

– Brandon Inge is still going through the rehab process after undergoing surgery on both knees this offseason. Inge thinks he’ll be ready to start the year, but some Tigers officials aren’t as optimistic. Inge is “bored”, and that is leading him to try to come back from his injury quicker, which is not the best thing for him. During the first half of ’09, Inge was a stud, and it’s unclear if his second half was due to regression, injuries, or a combination of both. Now, with bad knees and lost catcher eligibility, he’s no longer draftable.

– After missing a vast majority of 2009, Daisuke Matsuzaka is continuing to work his way back for the 2010 season. He threw off a mound, although the catcher was standing, and also participated in some long toss. The Red Sox are willing to admit that Dice-K won’t be ready for opening day, but it looks like they hope he will be ready to go sometime in the first month of the season. The Red Sox may choose to go with a four-man rotation until Dice-K gets back on the mound, but they could also place Tim Wakefield in the starting rotation. Wakefield is always a strange fantasy pickup, but he could be a nice waiver wire guy for wins.

More injury notes:

• Jose Reyes tripled in an intersquad game yesterday. Hard to gauge a speed guy with a leg injury, but Reyes could be fantastic value in the late second round.
• Jesus Flores admitted that he won’t be ready for opening day. He has shown some promise in the past, but his shoulder problems combined with the arrival of Pudge will kill his value.
• After an early scare, Jair Jurrjens’ shoulder seems to be doing better. He is throwing from long distances and hopes to get on the mound next week. Until I see him on the mound, I’m skeptical.

The highly touted Stephen Drew exploded onto the big league scene with Arizona towards the end of the 2006 season with a .367 wOBA in 59 games. An inflated .394 mark on balls in play aided his slash stats but we’ve seen three full seasons from Drew since then.

Those first three full seasons have been like an elevator ride for Drew at the plate. Below are his wRC+’s and coinciding BABIP’s since he became the D-Backs regular shortstop:

wRC+
2007: 76
2008: 111
2009: 90

BABIP
2007: .267
2008: .322
2009: .288

It’s evident that he’s experienced some goofy BABIP fluctuation. As his BABIP has increased or decreased so has his overall batting line. With the help of the Hardball Times expected BABIP calculator we can adjust Drew’s triple-slash lines after we come up with a new expected BABIP figure. Below are Drew’s expected BABIPs courtesy of the calculator:

xBABIP
2007: .304 +.37 from actual BABIP
2008: .310 -.12 from actual BABIP
2009: .309 +.21 from actual BABIP

Interesting. The range from these three seasons worth of expected batted ball data is only six. Now I’ll show you Drew’s adjusted slash stats assuming that all the extra hits added or subtracted were graciously singles:

2007: .275/.350/.407
2008: .279/.321/.490
2009: .282/.341/.449

Suddenly, Drew looks like a much more consistent player save for the power spike in 2008 when he launched 21 homers. In 2008 Drew gobbled up fastballs for a 16.9 run value. His performance versus fastballs likely attributed to his increase in long balls.

Expect a bounce back season from the soon-to-be 27-year-old. The Fans .280/.336/.459 projection with 17 home runs looks awfully accurate (good job FanGraphers) and closely resembles his xBABIP adjusted line from 2009. He also offers a little more upside after the expected BABIP regression. If Drew runs into a few more fastballs like he did in 2008 it’s very possible that he pops 20+ home runs. The cozy hitting confines of Chase Field can only help him too.

Drew’s had varying success at the plate through his first three full seasons and this may make fantasy players a bit gun shy when it comes to selecting Drew during their drafts. Fantasy owners should not fear Drew and he’s a solid shortstop option come the middle rounds of drafts. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Stephen Drew.

The first three spots in the Houston Astros’ rotation are locked up. Ol’ reliable, Roy Oswalt, will be followed by Wandy Rodriguez and free agent pick-up Brett Myers.

Contenders for the back of the rotation include Brian Moehler, Wesley Wright, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino. Both for the short and long term, the Astros (and fantasy owners) would be best off if Norris and Paulino snag those last two spots.

Norris, who turns 25 tomorrow, was Houston’s sixth-round pick in the 2006 draft. A short, stout righty (6-0, 225 pounds), Norris was tabbed as a future late-inning reliever because of his size and searing mid-90’s fastball. But while the Cal Poly product made his pro debut out of the ‘pen, he has been a starter ever since, as the Astros try to extract maximum value from one of the club’s few young building blocks.

In 340.2 minor league innings, Norris has struck out 9.5 batters per nine frames. His control hasn’t been particularly sharp, however, as he has issued 3.7 BB/9. This past year at Triple-A Round Rock, Norris notched 8.4 K/9, with four walks per nine innings and a 3.41 FIP.

Getting the big league call in late July, Norris slotted into Houston’s rotation (10 starts, one relief appearance). He tossed 55.2 innings, with 8.73 K/9, 4.04 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9 and a 4.38 xFIP.

Norris has a “hard, harder, hardest” repertoire, featuring a 94 MPH fastball, 87-88 MPH slider and an 86-87 MPH changeup. Opposing batters made contact 83.9 percent of the time against his stuff on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 75 percent of the time overall (80-81 percent average).

Bud’s bugaboos are free passes and fly ball tendencies. He has never really been known for painting the black, and while his groundball rate in the minors was 47.4 percent, he burned worms at a 37.2 percent clip in the majors. It’s probably best not to read too much into that number, given the sample size. But it bears watching, given that Minute Maid Park has inflated home run production by eight percent compared to a neutral ball park over the last three seasons.

CHONE projects Norris to compile a 4.40 FIP in 2010, with 8.43 K/9, 4.14 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9. He’ll miss bats, and he could be a nice addition to Houston’s staff if he can rein in the walks and not allow hitters to put that Minute Maid train in harm’s way.

Norris you probably buy. But Paulino, he of a career 6.40 ERA? Believe it or not, yeah. As Carson Cistulli pointed out earlier this off-season, there’s a big gap between Paulino’s results and the processes behind those results.

Inked out of Venezuela in 2001, Paulino is a 6-2, 260 pound leviathan who also comes equipped with radar gun readings that make scouts salivate. In addition to mid-90’s gas, he totes an upper-80’s slider, with an occasional mid-70’s curveball and mid-80’s changeup. He has punched out 8.4 batters per nine frames, with 4.4 BB/9 in 386.1 career minor league innings (71 starts, 32 relief appearances).

In the majors, Paulino has been pummeled. However, the 26 year-old’s peripherals paint the picture of a talented guy who’s been hosed by some terrible luck. In 116.2 innings (20 starts, eight ‘pen appearances), Paulino has 8.02 K/9, 3.39 BB/9 and a 4.23 xFIP. Yet, his ERA is nearly 2.4 runs higher, due mostly to a .353 BABIP and a 17.6 home run per fly ball rate. When a batter has put the ball in play against Paulino, hits have fallen as if Ichiro were perpetually at the plate. On fly balls, it’s as though Ryan Braun clones were lofting all of them. Those figures are bound to drop precipitously.

Like Norris, Paulino has been pretty hard to make contact against (85.1 Z-Contact, 74 Contact). And, like Norris, his biggest challenges will be honing his control and limiting those leisurely trots around the bases. CHONE envisions a 4.75 FIP for Paulino next year, with 7.81 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.35 HR/9.

The two have experienced some health problems. Norris was shut down a little early last year with right shoulder fatigue, and he missed some time in 2008 with a right elbow strain. Paulino missed nearly the entire 2008 season with a pinched nerve in his right shoulder, and served a DL stint for a right groin strain in 2009.

While neither hurler is a sure thing (is any pitcher?), Norris and Paulino have the punch out potential to be of use in NL-only leagues.