Today we’re taking a look at the Top 15 outfielders up for consideration on Fantasy Draft Day. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops.

The Top Targets:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.405 wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.367 wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.388 wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.343 wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.390 wOBA)

Mr. Braun can do a little bit of everything for your fantasy squad. He can hit (.320 average, 203 hits in ’09), he can belt homers (32+ for three straight seasons) and he can run a little (20 steals in ’09). Thanks to some solid companionship in the lineup, he can also drive in and score 100+ runs a season. Add in the fact that’s he’s showing a better approach at the plate each season (walk-, K-rates and o-swing improving), and you have yourself a No. 1 stud outfielder.

The 25-year-old Kemp is zooming up quickly on Braun. He’s gotten better every year and he’s developed into a true 30-30 threat after slamming 26 homers and stealing 34+ bases for the second straight season. Kemp also had his first 100-RBI season in ’09 and he hits in a good, young lineup despite playing in a pitching-friendly park. He’s hit .290 or better in each of the last three seasons.

Upton is similar to Kemp, although not quite as proven, yet. Just 22, the converted infielder hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals in his first full MLB season in ’09. Upton is a little more of a free swinger than Kemp and the Diamondbacks’ best hitter doesn’t have quite as much protection in the lineup.

Sizemore had a down year in ’09, which is good news in one sense: You might get him at a slight discount in 2010. After hitting 22+ homers four four straight seasons, the outfielder slipped to 18 last year. He also failed to score 100 runs or steal 20+ bases after four straight seasons of doing just that. A 30-30 threat in his age-27 season, Sizemore won’t hit for a high average, but he should be around .270-.280 in ’10.

Holliday proved that there is life after Colorado for a slugger. He hit above .310 for the fifth straight season and even managed 24 homers despite playing part of the season in Oakland. Along with hitting for average and power, he’s a proven (and durable) slugger who can provide 100 RBI/runs, and steal 15-20 bases. Having Albert Pujols hit with him all season should definitely help the numbers.

The Next Best Thing:
Jason Bay, New York NL (.397 wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.354 wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.367 wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.382 wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.369 wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.394 wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.349 wOBA)

You could include Bay in the Top Targets, but the Mets curse (and ballpark) worries me. The 31-year-old hitter should be good for power, RBI and runs. Bay should provide about 10 steals, but he’s not going to hit for a great average. Ellsbury won’t help you with power or RBI totals, but he’s going to steal a lot of bases and score a ton of runs while hitting for a good average. That pretty much sums up Crawford and Suzuki, too.

Werth is a 30-20 threat with great lineup protection, but he’s also an injury risk who does his fair share of swinging and missing. Lind’s breakout ’09 season was more believable than teammate Aaron Hill’s… and he’s one of the top up-and-comers in the American League. It’s just too bad he’s likely to spend much of the year at DH. We’re still waiting for Markakis’ breakout season and maybe 2010 will be the year. The 26-year-old outfielder could be good for a .300 average, 20 homers, 20 steals and 100 runs/RBI. Or, he could let us down again.

The Leftovers:
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.321 wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.340wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.368 wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.396 wOBA)
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.310 wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.370 wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.389 wOBA)

Hamilton has a huge ceiling but he also has a pretty high bust rate thanks to a lack of durability. Granderson could zoom up this list thanks to his presence in the Yankees’ potent lineup. He’s a sleeper 30-30 candidate. Cruz has some warts, but he also has 30-20 potential and hits in a good lineup and ballpark. Ramirez is getting older and less consistent but he’s in a contract year. Inconsistent + Frustrating = B.J. Upton. With that said, he’s a 20-40 threat. Ethier isn’t as explosive as his teammate Kemp and lacks stolen-base numbers, but he has power and run-producing skills. Choo is good for a .300 average, as well as 20 homers and steals. Perhaps 2010 will be the year that he scores 100 runs but he doesn’t hit in a great lineup.

Sunday was my final day with the FanGraphs crew in Arizona. We tried to see the Cubs-Angels game but it was sold out. So, to make Matt Klaassen happy, we ended up seeing the Royals for the second time, as they took on the A’s. Leaving aside the question if watching the Royals makes a fan of their team happy or not, the game did provide a nice opportunity to see two pitchers vying for a spot in the rotation.

The Royals are set at the top of the rotation with Zack Greinke and Gil Meche. But after that comes a host of interchangeable pitchers. The depth charts at MLB.com, CBS Sports, ESPN and Yahoo! each show Kyle Davies as having a starting spot. Davies got the start today but was ineffective. He allowed 6 ER, 7 H and 3 BB (no Ks) in 2.2 IP.

Davies was relieved by Robinson Tejeda, who did not make the top five in any of the above listed depth charts. Tejeda cleaned up the mess left by Davies and pitched 2.1 scoreless innings. He allowed just one hit and struck out two. Tejeda was much more effective, although he was helped greatly by two nice catches by center fielder Jarrod Dyson.

It is never a good idea to read too much into Spring Training outings, but is there any reason to believe that Davies is a better option for the rotation than Tejeda? In two-plus seasons with the Royals, Davies has never had an ERA below 4.06 or a WHIP below 1.451, both of which he posted in 2008. That season, Davies’ numbers look good due to a 6.9 percent HR/FB rate. His xFIP for that season was 4.82, right in line with his 5.08 career xFIP.

Meanwhile, in 60 games for the Royals covering 113 IP, Tejeda has a 3.42 ERA. Last year Tejeda had a 4.07 ERA as a reliever and then in six games as a starter, he went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Overall, he posted a 3.54 ERA, right in line with his 3.60 FIP. Tejeda’s xFIP checks in at 4.47, as he had a 4.7 HR/FB mark. In 373.2 IP in the majors, Tejeda has a 7.8 HR/FB mark.

But even if his xFIP is indicative of his true talent (it was 4.46 in 2008), that still makes him a better option than Davies. With a mid-90s fastball, a slider and a change, Tejeda racks up the strikeouts because he can produce swings-and-misses. He had a 10.63 K/9 last year and a 71.7 Contact%. In 2008, Tejeda had a 70.7 Contact%. If he could do that over an entire season of pitching, that would be among the best marks in the majors, if not the best.

With Tejeda, the big thing is his control. He had a 6.11 BB/9 mark last year and in his career he has a 5.23 BB/9. Even in his successful stint as a starter last year, Tejeda allowed 20 BB in 31.2 IP. The danger is with all of those baserunners that Tejeda could implode with an unlucky year in HR/FB rate. The potential for disaster is even greater because he is a fly ball pitcher. Last year Tejeda had a 0.69 GB/FB ratio.

But he has never had a season like that in the majors. In five seasons in the bigs, Tejeda’s worst HR/FB mark was the 10.7 percent ratio he posted in 2007. In order to justify starting Davies over Tejeda, one has to assume that Tejeda will have a season like he’s never had before while also assuming the same for Davies, just in the opposite direction.

Davies’ problem is that his fastball is not an effective pitch. While he averaged 91.6 with his heater last year, he was 9.5 runs below-average when throwing his fastball. In his five seasons in the majors, his fastball has never been even an average pitch. Last year he tried throwing it fewer times but the results did not change.

Very few pitchers can throw a fastball 50 percent of the time or less and be successful. Those that are able to usually feature a cutter as their second main pitch. Only James Shields used his changeup as his second main pitch, as Davies hopes/needs to do. And even Shields throws his cutter nearly 20 percent of the time the past two seasons. Last year Davies introduced a cutter for the first time in his career and threw it 11.1 percent of the time. By Pitch Type Values it was a neutral pitch. If Davies is to succeed going forward, he will have to throw more cutters and have it be a plus pitch.

The odds are against Davies succeeding, based both on his past history and the lack of success with his fastball. Fantasy players would be better off drafting Tejeda hoping he gets a shot at the rotation and that he can at least curb his walk rate a little bit. While Tejeda is unlikely to be a star, he has a more likely path to success than Davies does.

Saturday the FanGraphs crowd caught the Texas-Cleveland matchup and saw strong performances from starting pitchers Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy. Masterson struck out six batters in 3.2 IP while McCarthy had 3 Ks in 3 IP and did not allow a run. Masterson solidified his place as one of the Tribe’s top pitchers while McCarthy helped his chances to land a spot in Texas’ starting rotation.

Over at Mock Draft Central they give an ADP for the top 454 players. McCarthy does not make the list. Some of the pitchers who are on the list ahead of him include Oliver Perez and his 6.82 ERA, Luke Hochevar and his 1.49 WHIP and John Lannan and his 3.88 K/9. McCarthy did not even get a write-up in FanGraphs Second Opinion. I think it is safe to say that he is not on most people’s fantasy radar at this point in time.

McCarthy has two things working against him: his injury history and his gopher ball tendencies. Last year McCarthy had his second stress fracture in his right shoulder and missed nearly three months of the season. He has been on the DL four times in the last three years, including two 60-day stints. In 2009, McCarthy had a 1.20 HR/9, a rate that would have ranked among the worst in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify.

While it remains to be seen if McCarthy can stay healthy, he got better as the season progressed last year in allowing homers. In April, McCarthy surrendered 6 HR in 22 IP. For the rest of the season he gave up 7 HR in 75.1 IP. McCarthy was at his best in September, after he came back from the stress fracture. In his final 33.1 IP, he allowed just 2 HR.

Now this could easily be just the results of a small sample. But one interesting note is McCarthy’s batted ball profile after he returned from the DL. He had a 49.1 GB%, nearly double of his mark in April (26.4%). McCarthy posted a 1.44 GB/FB mark, compared to a 0.92 GB/FB mark overall in 2009 and a 0.82 lifetime mark in the category.

After his return from the disabled list, McCarthy threw fewer fastballs and more of his off-speed pitches. His FB% was 40.3 percent in September, compared to 64.9 percent overall. He threw more of each of his remaining three pitches, with his change seeing the biggest increase. In the final month, McCarthy threw his change 23.6 percent of the time.

With an average FB velocity last year of 88.8 and a Pitch Type Value of -7.6 runs with his heater, McCarthy can afford to throw fewer fastballs. One thing to keep in mind is that there is some confusion about which pitches he actually throws. In the Associated Press story following Saturday’s outing, McCarthy said, “I really wanted to work on the cutter.” Meanwhile, neither FanGraphs nor BrooksBaseball.net show him throwing a cutter last year. Also, there was talk at the beginning of 2009 about McCarthy throwing a “slurve,” which further muddies the water.

Regardless of the terminology used, the bottom line is that McCarthy threw more grounders in the final month of the season last year. It’s too soon to draw any conclusions, but fantasy players should keep in mind that McCarthy may be a different pitcher going forward. If he continues with these ground balls, he could be a candidate for an early waiver wire claim.

The injury to Alex Gordon opens up more playing time this spring for the Royals in the infield. Most of the early speculation has been on Alberto Callaspo and Josh Fields. But one player who should not be counted out is Mike Aviles. After a breakout season in 2008, Aviles crashed last year, mainly due to an injury which required surgery. In Friday’s game that the FanGraphs group caught, Aviles started the game at second base while Callaspo was at third and Fields at first.

Aviles had Tommy John surgery in July. The normal prognosis is for up to a year to come back from the procedure. But Aviles was feeling strong early in camp and there were thoughts he might be ready to play much earlier, possibly even making the Royals as a utility infielder. The plan for the Royals was to give Aviles some early playing time in the Cactus League at second base, where he would not need to use his arm so much to make long throws. And with Gordon going down, it made finding playing time for Aviles even easier.

In his two games so far, Aviles has gone 2-for-3 in each. Additionally, the Royals consider Aviles to be a strong defensive player. Manager Trey Hillman told the Associated Press:

“I asked one of our developmental people if they could identify our most fundamentally sound infielder. Its (sic) Mike Aviles far as textbook fielding a ground ball, approaching a ground ball and doing it right all the time. One of the staff guys grabbed me the other day and said that’s as good as it gets.”

Neither Callaspo nor Betancourt have good defensive reputations. Callaspo put up some good fielding numbers in limited time previously at second base, but was below average last year in 146 games and the perception was even worse than the numbers. Betancourt had a UZR/150 of -23.9 last year, including a -28.6 after being acquired by the Royals.

If Aviles is healthy and has the best defensive option, his playing time might rest with how well he does at the plate. His big year in 2008 was the result of a .357 BABIP. Last year in 36 games he posted just a .223 mark. The projection systems show Aviles with a BABIP ranging from .300-.316 and with an AVG of .270-.284.

If everything goes right, Aviles could produce a .290 AVG with double digit totals in both SB and HR. That could be a nice pot of cheese at the end of your fantasy draft when you are looking to fill your middle infield position.

One other factor to consider is that Chris Getz is on the roster as a contender for playing time at second base. Getz was not overly impressive either offensively or defensively last year, although fantasy leaguers enjoyed his SB output. So, Aviles is potentially vying with both Getz and Callaspo for playing time at second, the position he is likely to play early in the season as he builds up arm strength.

Because of his defensive reputation on the club, Aviles should have a leg up in the competition. And while he may not get a ton of ABs in the spring due to Kansas City spreading them out to all of the contenders, if Aviles proves healthy throughout Cactus League play he has an excellent shot of breaking camp as a starter. And if he does get the playing time, Aviles is a good fantasy option.

Armed with a cadre of young, premium talent, the Texas Rangers have a good shot a contending in 2010 and figure to battle for AL West titles for years to come. CHONE projects Texas to tally 86 wins while taking baseball’s short-stack division. And there’s more help on the way. ESPN’s Keith Law placed the Rangers first in his 2010 MLB organizational rankings, as did Baseball America’s John Manuel on his own list.

While the club’s embarrassment of pitching riches dominates the conversation, Texas has a home-grown center fielder who figures to greatly aid those highly-touted arms. CHONE forecasts a 2.8 WAR season for Julio Borbon, with his superb range translating to well over a win saved defensively. But what about Borbon’s bat?

A University of Tennessee star, Borbon broke his ankle a week prior to the start of his junior season and missed the first two months of the college schedule. However, he recovered and impressed scouts with his fleet feet enough to be a supplemental first-round selection (35th overall) in the 2007 draft.

Texas inked the Scott Boras client for $1.3 million, and Borbon made his full-season debut in the High-A California League in 2008. In 314 plate appearances, Borbon batted .306/.346/.395, walking just 4.8 percent of the time but making plenty of contact (10.3 K%). He also stole 36 bases in 43 attempts (an 83.7 percent success rate) for the aptly-named Bakersfield Blaze.

Borbon earned a promotion to the Double-A Texas League during the summer, where he hit .337/.380/.459 in 280 PA. His walk and whiff rates remained similar (5 BB%, 12.5 K%), and he showed a little more pop (.122 Isolated Power, compared to a .089 ISO in High-A). However, he certainly benefitted from a .370 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and his base thievery took a hit (17 steals in 28 attempts, a 60.7 percent success rate).

This past year, Borbon split his time between the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and the majors. With Oklahoma City, he posted a .307/.367/.386 triple-slash. He didn’t split the gaps often (.079 ISO), but Borbon improved somewhat in terms of working the count. He drew ball four 7.2 percent of the time, while striking out 9.8 percent. With 25 stolen bases in 32 tries (78.1 percent), he also put his speed to better use.

Borbon spent a few days in the big leagues in late June and early July, but he arrived in earnest in August. Overall, he had a .312/.376/.414 line in 179 PA, walking 8.4 percent and punching out 17.8 percent with a .102 ISO. His BABIP was .360. Most importantly for fantasy folks, Borbon nabbed 19 bases in 23 attempts, good for an 82.6 percent success rate.

Given the sample size, it’s best not to infer too much from Borbon’s first foray in the major leagues. But, his plate discipline stats indicate that he had some trouble telling balls from strikes. Borbon chased 27.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25 percent MLB average), while letting ‘er rip on pitches within the zone just 55.5 percent (66 percent MLB average). Given his free-swinging ways in the minors, Borbon’s strike-zone judgment bears watching in 2010.

CHONE predicts that the 24 year-old will author a .297/.349/.400 line in 2010, with a 104 wRC+. Given a full year’s worth of playing time, Borbon should top 30 steals at a high-percentage clip. That makes him someone to target in mixed leagues. But as the old cliche goes, you can’t steal first. Borbon would be best served by showing a little more restraint at the plate.

Over the last little while we’ve been looking at suggested draft orders for each fantasy position. We’ve already had posts for catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen.

The Top Targets:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.410 wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.393 wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.316 wOBA)

There is a pretty big drop-off after the first three shortstops on the list. There’s actual a drop after the first two. Ramirez has seen a drop in steals over the past three seasons – from 51 to 35 to 27, as he’s moved into more of a run-producing role, which has hurt his overall game a bit. With that said, he still batted .342 with 24 homers and he drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career. He’s still a stud if he doesn’t steal 30 bases and he scores fewer runs.

Tulowitzki took a leap into fantasy stardom in ’09 with a 30-20 season and 100 runs scored. He still has room to grow and we could see a .300 average in 2010, along with 100 RBI. The fact that he took more walks last season (11.6 BB%) is a good sign.

Rollins had an “off year” and he was still a 20-30 player with 100 runs scored. He doesn’t help you in batting average, but he has a great lineup around him so he’s going to be valuable even if his recent struggles are actually regression showing its ugly face.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.390 wOBA)
5. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.389 wOBA)
6. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.342 wOBA)
7. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.319 wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.321 wOBA)

Jeter posted the third highest wOBA of any shortstop in the Majors last season but he sits at No. 4 on the list, in part due to his age (36 this season). We don’t expect him to steal 30 bases again and the 18 homers were probably a bit of a fluke (or ball-park induced, as 13 came at home).

Likewise, Bartlett’s ’09 season was probably a career year in terms of power and batting average. He’ll probably continue to be a solid contributor with the bat, but definitely not a top target. Reyes gets bumped down the list due to his injury/health woes. We really have no idea at this point when his season will begin. And much of his value is tied around his base running, so it will be interesting to see how he rebounds in that area.

I’m definitely not a big Alexei Ramirez fan but he obviously has value as someone that can be a 15-15 player with a .260-.280 average. He also potentially offers some versatility depending on how the Sox club uses him. Drew is just frustrating. He has the talent to be a Top 5 shortstop but he just cannot put it together consistently. But he is entering his age-27 season, so maybe something will click. Drew has 20-homer potential.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.316 wOBA)
10. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.322 wOBA)
11. Yunel Escobar , Atlanta (.357 wOBA)
12. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.354 wOBA)
13. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.344 wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Toronto (.354 wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles AL (.339 wOBA)

A lot of these guys are very similar in value so you could really rank them about 15 different ways. Furcal doesn’t run enough anymore to be truly coveted. But if he can play 150 games, he could score 100 runs with a good, young offense behind him. It’s hard to know what to expect from Andrus this year… and we can only hope that he avoids the dreaded sophomore curse. Don’t overpay for him. Escobar has value as someone that can hit 10-15 homers and bat .270-.300 but he’s not a run producer and he doesn’t steal bases.

Cabrera hits for a hollow .300 average but he went down with an injury today so we’ll have to await word on its severity. Tejada’s in his declining years a move back to the American League probably is not going to help. Scutaro is most assuredly coming off of a career year, but his numbers will probably dip less now that he’s in a more potent lineup thanks to his move from Toronto to Boston. He could score 100 runs at the top of that lineup. This is the year I’d like to see Aybar use his full talent and steal 30+ bases with 100 runs scored; he’s my personal shortstop sleeper pick for 2010.

Up Next: The Outfielders

A bunch of people from FanGraphs are enjoying Spring Training here in Arizona this week. Thursday we took in the Brewers-Reds game and delighted fans in the right field seats with our special brand of knowledge. In a mostly uneventful game, the Reds brought in a pitcher to seal the deal in the ninth inning that caught us off guard. None of us had ever heard of Logan Ondrusek (although to be fair Marc Hulet was not at the game) and that, combined with the fact that he was put into a game in a save situation and closed the game, made him worthy of a post.

Ondrusek was a 13th-round pick of the Reds in 2005 from a community college in Texas. The first thing that strikes you is that he is tall. MiLB.com lists him at 6’8 but it would not surprise me if he was bigger than that.

After an extended stint as a starter in 2007, Ondrusek made just three starts in 2008 and has been in the bullpen ever since. He seemed to be nothing special until the 2009 season, in which he began the year in the Hi-A Florida State League and ended in Triple-A. Among his three stops, his highest ERA was 1.74 and for the year he had a 1.50 ERA in 72 innings.

The scouting reports show Ondrusek with a low-90s fastball, a changeup and a slider. He did not overpower batters and with borderline shaky command, he had uninspiring results. But in 2009 Ondrusek had a 2.6 BB/9 and he allowed just 1 HR, helping to explain his great leap forward.

With such a miniscule HR rate it is not surprising to see Ondrusek as a ground ball pitcher. Minorleaguesplits.com shows him with a 56.9/15.9/24.1 GB/LD/FB batted ball profile.

Last year Ondrusek worked his way into a closer role. He had zero saves in the FSL but had seven in Double-A and 12 in Triple-A. His big season earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League, but he struggled in the hitting-friendly loop. Ondrusek allowed 22 hits in 10 innings and had a 13.50 ERA.

It seems unlikely that Ondrusek will be a closer in the majors, given that he does not have a big strikeout rate. But the rise he made last year certainly makes for a good story and the fact that the Reds gave him a chance to close in an early Spring Training game is interesting. Right now he is a name to store away and it would not be surprising if he made it to the majors at some point in the 2010 season.

Imagine stumbling on this headline without prior knowledge of fantasy baseball. It would take quite a bit of explaining to understand that this piece will be about the starting pitchers from this list that have the best value vis-a-vis their draft position. Good thing most of you are ahead of the curve on that one.

The easiest way to find value in a tier is to just go ahead and pick the guy with the lowest ADP in the tier, and lo and behold, Dan Haren (40.24 ADP) is that guy for me in the first mini-tier. At first, there seems to be no negative in taking Haren in the early fourth round given his stature among the elite SP1s. For three straight years, he’s had an ERA below 3.33, a WHIP below 1.21, a walk rate below 1.8 per nine, and a strikeout rate over 8 per nine. Thank you, thank you, thank you and thank you. I know the cutoffs are a little random, but guess how many other starting pitchers in baseball have managed that sort of sustained excellence over the past three years. Yeah. None.

Let me stop you yeahbutters right now. I know what you’re saying. In 651 Pre-All-Star innings, Haren has a 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 7.45 K/9. In 575 Post-All-Star innings, he has 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 7.76 K/9. Those innings seem significant. I understand the yeahbutting. Here’s my rubber and your glue: Haren’s xFIP by month, career: 3.82, 3.72, 3.73, 3.54, 3.37, 3.64. I don’t see a problem here. Maybe give him a tick forward in roto leagues and a tick backward in H2H leagues where he may or may not disappear for your playoffs. But otherwise, if you want a pitcher in the first four rounds, Haren is your value.

The lowest ADP of the next tier predictably belongs to Chris Carpenter (72.73 ADP) and his elbow and shoulder held together by twine and adhesive. You’re getting a discount because of all that risk. But why should you get a discount for picking Jon Lester (58.95 ADP)? The cancer scare was a long time ago. His career strikeout rate (7.85 K/9) belies his true talent level, as a surge (9.96 K/9 last year) brought him to the top of the leaderboard in that category. Admittedly, there was some question about his walk rate (3.8 BB/9,1.31 WHIP in the minor leagues), but now he’s kept it under three for two straight years (2.82 and 2.83) and seems to have answered the question. He even had a poor BABIP last year (.323), so if he puts that elite strikeout rate together with better luck on the batted ball and the same nice walk rate – watchout hardware.

The last tier features a pitcher that is the subject of more than a few mancrushes. David G declared him an ace last year, Ray Flowers at Fanball.com likes him as an early second pitcher, John Halpin at Fox Sports thinks a gaudy win total is coming, Paul Bourdett claims to have liked him before he blew up, and you can check my Second Opinion graph for proof that I like the beanpole Rockie ace. Here’s a taste: Ubaldo Jimenez (100.58 ADP) has had better than 50% ground balls for two years in a row, and in the last two years he has improved his strikeout and walk rates each time. His fastball, slider and change all gave the Rox better than 9.6 runs in weighted value, and batters have an especially tough time with his changeup (23.2% whiff rate) and slider (19% whiff rate). He’s 26, burns worms, has nasty stuff that gets whiffs and comes cheaply. Does it get any better?

Earlier today, R.J. Anderson took a gander at Kevin Hart, a fifth starter candidate for the Pirates picked up from the Cubs last summer. Hart’s main competition for that fifth spot is Pittsburgh’s far less famous McCutchen, Daniel McCutchen.

The 27 year-old heard his name called in four separate drafts before he finally signed on the dotted line. The Yankees popped McCutchen out of Grayson County (Texas) Community College in the 47th round back in 2003, but he didn’t come to terms with the club. Tampa Bay took a flyer in the 29th round in 2004. Daniel didn’t make a deal with the (Devil) Rays, though. St. Louis fared no better after selecting him in the 12th round in 2005. Finally, the fifth-year senior (having transferred to Oklahoma) came full-circle and inked with the Yankees as a 13th-rounder in 2006.

McCutchen’s career prospects perked up following a July 2008 trade that sent him from the Yankees to the Bucs. In the Bronx, the 6-2 righty was approximately eleventieth on the starter’s depth chart. In Pittsburgh, he has a far better chance to carve out a significant role.

McCutchen has generally mowed down hitters on his way to the majors. In 261 career innings at the Triple-A level, he has whiffed 7.2 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.6 walks per nine frames. His FIP in the International League is 3.80.

This past year, McCutchen managed to post the second-lowest percentage of balls thrown in the IL, while boasting the fourth-highest swinging strike rate to boot.

Pittsburgh called McCutchen up last August, and he posted a 5.19 FIP in 36.1 innings covering six starts (19/11 K/BB ratio, 6 HR surrendered).

While his work in Triple-A is promising, there’s a schism between McCutchen’s stats and scouting reports. His four-seam fastball sits high in the zone at 90-93 MPH, and he backs it up with a decent low-80’s slider and changeup. In ranking McCutchen as the #21 prospect in the Pirates’ system, Baseball America mentioned that he’s an “extreme fly ball pitcher” who lacks “a true swing-and-miss pitch.”

Those fly ball tendencies are troubling. During his minor league career, McCutchen has gotten grounders just 39.1 percent of the time. In Triple-A this past season, he burned worms at a 33.6 percent clip. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that PNC Park does a number on home run production. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC has decreased dingers by 12 percent compared to a neutral venue over the past three seasons.

For 2010, CHONE projects McCutchen to compile a 4.66 FIP, with 6.26 K/9, 2.52 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9. Whether he cracks the rotation out of Bradenton or not, McCutchen will likely take the hill as a starter at some point.

The “other” McCutchen won’t draw any rave reviews, though he could be useful in NL-only leagues if injuries leave you scurrying to the waiver wire. He’ll miss a modest number of bats and will occasionally get clobbered by the long ball. However, McCutchen’s stinginess with the walks and homer-suppressing home ballpark should make him an average, cheap starter.

Every once and awhile I will be reading through comments on articles and in the forums, and I’ve noticed an interest in leagues involving WAR, wOBA, etc. I’m not surprised, since this is a statistical site that uses those numbers every day. However, not enough is being said about these “strange” leagues, so I think we need to shed some light on the situation.

WAR Leagues

WAR leagues are always going to be fun and much more realistic, seeing that they actually use defense, which is just as important as the offensive side of the ball. Since UZR is involved, you can’t exactly set up a Yahoo! league to track WAR, whether you want to or not. That leaves you with two options. You can continuously call Yahoo! until they give in, or you can start your own WAR league. I’ve heard of some readers forming their own leagues using WAR, and doing a draft on their own time. This is a great idea, and the boys over at Beyond The Boxscore have a draft every year. In fact, BtB takes it one step further and uses MLB contracts and assigns each owner a $60mm salary cap. This makes drafting hard, and forces owners to put a lot of work in (I should know, I’ve done the draft each year and am actually running a league this year). These leagues aren’t difficult to run after the draft, because each owner can enter his players into his FanGraphs account and check on his team quite easily.

Real Runs

Every fantasy league has the option to use “runs” as a category, but that just counts how many times the player crossed the plate, not how many runs he actually contributed at the plate. Fortunately, there is now a very easy solution for this. In a league I am in with BtB writer JinAZ, he has set our scoring to a “wRC*10 scale”. This point system can now be found on Beyond the Boxscore, if that is something you are interested in. I have to say, I am very excited to see how the draft goes for this league, because the rankings will be different from standard rankings, though by how much remains to be seen.

The new wave of fantasy leagues will eventually be noticed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the “Big Three” (CBS, ESPN, Yahoo) implement more advanced stats in the coming years to satisfy their customers. Don’t forget, the more you bug them, the sooner they will be implemented.