A little while ago I did a mock draft where I punted AVG. Pleased with those results, I tried again to do something I have never done in a real draft. This time I punted homers. Unlike last time, this was not a private draft. This was just a regular draft over at Mock Draft Central where I took over an AI team at the last minute.

I can see you shaking your heads now. There is no way to punt HR because you will end up finishing at or near the bottom in RBIs, too. That is certainly a possibility. But even if the team has no chance of winning, let’s see how it would look. It is always good to test out an hypothesis, just to confirm that the conventional wisdom is indeed correct.

This was a 12-team, mixed Yahoo! Style Draft in which I had the 11th pick. Here is my team:

Tim Lincecum (ADP 12)
Carl Crawford (15)
Ichiro Suzuki (39)
Dustin Pedroia (38)
Jon Lester (59)
Lance Berkman (60)
Chone Figgins (79)
Ricky Nolasco (106)
Torii Hunter (99)
Chad Billingsley (120)
Carlos Marmol (137)
James Shields (128)
Yunel Escobar (152)
Jorge Cantu (168)
James Loney (180)
Chad Qualls (208)
Todd Helton (196)
Mike Gonzalez (192)
AJ Pierzynski (235)
Nick Johnson (266)
Wade Davis (288)

You can quibble with the selections of Berkman and Hunter and if they really fit into a punt HR strategy. I thought Berkman was just too good of a value to pass up at pick #62. I wanted Bobby Abreu but he got picked two slots ahead of me (when I ended up taking Figgins) and I ended up taking Hunter. The James projections give Berkman 31 HR and Hunter 24. The next highest projection is Jorge Cantu’s 18.

So, how did this team rate? This team was picked to finish first, with a total of 86 points. The second place team had 76.5 points. The individual category projections were as follows:

AVG – 12
HR – 1
RBI – 1
SB – 11
R – 9.5
W – 11
S – 6.5
K – 12
WHIP – 11
ERA – 11

Because it was a Yahoo! Style Draft, they graded both the starting lineup of 16 and the 5-man bench. My bench came in 10th place with a score of 56.

Theoretically, a team can punt HR, finish last in RBIs too and still win, as this draft shows. I certainly would not try this in a real draft. But it is interesting to see how a team that ignores power can be a productive one, at least on paper.

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, the Detroit Tigers are close to signing free agent outfielder Johnny Damon to a one-year contract. Multiple sources indicate that the deal is worth $8 million.

Damon, 36, is coming off of a 2009 season in which he batted .282/.365/.489 in 626 plate appearances. Accounting for park and league factors, Johnny’s bat was 32 percent better than average (132 wRC+). That was the highest wRC+ of his career, just edging out his 130 mark in 2008.

The lefty batter’s career year at the plate was driven by a 24 home runs (tied with 2006 for the highest mark during his big league tenure) and a personal best .207 Isolated Power. Damon lofted the ball more than usual, hitting a fly ball 42.3 percent of the time (35 percent average since 2002), and 12.6 percent of those flys left the yard (9.4 percent average since ’02).

Not surprisingly, Damon’s power surge was predicated on his pulling the ball ferociously. Here are his splits by side of field from last season, as well as his splits from 2002-2009. I also included the league averages, taken from Dave Cameron’s post on Joe Mauer, for greater context:

Damon has generally been a very good pull hitter, but he went bonkers last season. As Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online shows, 23 of Johnny’s 24 bombs were hit to the pull side:

For those of you wondering, Damon’s HR distribution since 2002 breaks down as follows: one to left field, three to center and 129 to right field. About 97 percent of Damon’s dingers have been hit to the pull side over that time frame. Last year, AL batters hit 52.3 percent of their home runs to the pull field.

Johnny’s pull power surely wasn’t inhibited by New Yankee Stadium. In its inaugural year, the stadium inflated home run production by 26 percent compared to a neutral park. The HR park factor for lefty batters was 120, and 133 for right-handed hitters.

New Yankee Stadium received much attention for early-season power displays, and most fans probably think the park played like a bandbox. It’s wise not to glean too much from one year of data. But overall, the House That George Built wasn’t especially threatening to pitchers, decreasing run scoring by four percent according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook. There’s a tradeoff with all of those home runs: would-be doubles and triples that fall in at other stadiums find gloves in the Bronx (81 doubles factor, 50 triples factor).

For what it’s worth, Damon’s new home (Comerica Park) increased run production by five percent from 2007-2009. Comerica is homer-friendly (110 HR park factor), but much more so for righty batters (118 HR factor) than lefties (96 HR factor).

The big question with Damon, aside from, will he start rocking the cave man look again…

(picture from PicApp)

…is, what can we expect from him offensively in 2010? Just about no batters in their mid-thirties post career-best power numbers and then sustain that level of play. As such, it’s not surprising to see the projection systems calling for regression:

Bill James: .278/.355/.430, .152 ISO, 114 wRC+
CHONE: .270/.357/.432, .162 ISO, 116 wRC+

A simple Marcel projection spits out a similar line: .275/.353/.440, with a .165 ISO and a 117 wRC+.

Damon’s pending deal likely means that Carlos Guillen will spend more time at DH, with Ryan Raburn getting pushed back to the bench. Magglio Ordonez, meanwhile, will make stacks o’ cash in right field, though the separation between the $18 million man and the pre-arbitration Raburn looks slim:

2010 CHONE projections

Ordonez: .295/.362/.453, 120 wRC+
Raburn: .265/.339/.472, 116 wRC+

As for Damon, he remains a quality offensive player. But no one should be expecting a repeat of last season. According to MockDraftCentral, Johnny’s ADP is about 128, putting him in the same vicinity as Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez. You’d be better off pulling the trigger on either of those young, high-upside guys as opposed to Damon. Still, Detroit’s new left fielder is a good option, so long as your expectations are realistic.

Ironically for a person that loves fantasy baseball, my record-keeping is not always fantastic. I thought it might be useful to gather all my ADP Values in one post as a sort of (incomplete) sleeper list, while also adding (zingy) recaps of the reasons behind their values, as well as the newest ADPs that are available around the interwebbings. This will also help remind me what positions I have left to cover in the series (everyone wins!).

*Player (MockDraftCentral ADP, Yahoo ADP)

Catcher
Brian McCann (43.85, 39.6)
(Cheapest top-tier catcher with power.)
Miguel Montero (145.07, 175.7)
(Montero could easily repeat his strong 2009 and join the top rungs.)
Chris Iannetta (175.47, 194.2)
(Iannetta could use a little BABIP love, but the power is legit enough.)
A.J. Pierzynski (250.92, 201.4)
(He can be average, for a below-average price.)
Adam Moore (NA, NA)
(Moore might start in Seattle and has upside, but no experience.)
J.R. Towles (NA, NA)
(Can Towles finally post a league-average BABIP and be a decent backstop this year?)

First Base
Chris Davis (161.42, 229.6)
(Haven’t done the ADP Value piece for this position, so these are the deep leaguers, and Davis is the whiff/bomb king.)
Jorge Cantu (172.12, 153.7)
(He can, too, but this price is slowly getting a little too rich.)
Lyle Overbay (407.40, NA)
(The ‘other’ James Loney, at least Over-baby is cheap.)

Second Base
Ben Zobrist (57.82, 42.6)
(Originally in the shortstop piece, Zobrist is a better sleeper at short, but only eligible at 2B in many leagues.)
Dan Uggla (85.98, 75.8)
(If you’re going to pay for a second baseman, why not take one with a near-guaranteed .200+ ISO?)
Rickie Weeks (199.48 (up from 212.37), 108.4)
(This looks like some rankings bias right here – I would avoid Weeks at the Yahoo price.)
Martin Prado (259.51, 195.6)
(Prado is a good deep league value, but he’s still borderline in mixed leagues.)
Placido Polanco (256.43, 192.6)
(Submitted by reader Will, and approved, in a comeback from being overrated in fantasy.)
Kelly Johnson (321.58, NA)
(If you really, really don’t want to pay for your second baseman, has a chance to be decent once again.)
Alberto Callaspo (333.13, 224.7) / Chris Getz (NA, NA)
(Somewhere in here is a decent starting second baseman in deep leagues, but you may have to handcuff.)

Shortstop
Elvis Andrus (152.63, 115.40)
(That Texas lineup will be scooting around the basepaths this year, and Andrus should benefit. As his ADP creeps up, though, the value shifts to the other speedy shortstops.)
Ryan Theriot (276.70, 197.5)
(Theriot manages to be okay in batting average leagues and could be a deep league value.)
Everth Cabrera (244.91, 266.1)
(Which low-powered speedy shortstop will you take? This one is the bet for the worst batting average.)
Alcides Escobar (267.54, 207.1)
(Deep-league value approved, the other other Esco will offer some speed at least.)
Mike Aviles (334.65, NA)
(AL-only endgame shot in the dark only has the worst position player in baseball to beat out.)

Third Base
Ryan Zimmerman (34.20 (up from 39.78), 37.7)
(Surprisingly weak third base class plus emerging young player equals value.)
Gordon Beckham (92.54, 138.20)
(Yahoo seems to provide better value, and even 600 at-bats of last year’s version would outproduce this pick.)
Adrian Beltre (192.50, 168.1)
(New park and good health could make for a nice bounce-back season.)
Alex Gordon (241.64, 217.6)
(Was making progress before his injury-derailed 2009 season.)
David Freese (332.31, NA)
(Still all alone on the hot corner in St. Louis.)

Outfield
Grady Sizemore (28.97, 26.9)
(Injury comeback will remind Grady’s Ladies to come back to the park.)
Curtis Granderson (50.18, 55.4)
(Nice new park, bounce-back average will combine for a good year.)
Manny Ramirez (64.88, 87)
(How old is too old?)
Carlos Gonzalez (123.79, 139.4)
(The hype train continues.)
Nyjer Morgan (131.25 ,178)
(Or perhaps the new Morgan, Brett Gardner (330.04, NA)?)
Nolan Reimold (203.88, 194.88)
(He should heel.)
Colby Rasmus (215.97, NA)
(There are questions here, but lots of upside here.)
Travis Snider (255.88, NA)
(Big power, big whiffa, big value at the price.)
J.D. Drew (297.07, NA)
(Still best as a fourth/fifth fantasy outfielder, Drew can still poke it out of the park from time to time.)
Drew Stubbs (311.23, NA)
(Deep league value for steals.)
Kyle Blanks (318.98, NA)
(Big, big Blanks is shooting nothing but moon-shots and sparks from his afro this year.)
Matt LaPorta (327.73, NA)
(A little subdued by recent news – the Russell Branyan signing, but still a good sleeper.)

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, free agent first baseman Russell Branyan has inked a one-year, $2 million contract with the Cleveland Indians, which includes $1 million in performance incentives. The pact also has a $5 million mutual option for 2011.

Long a stat-head favorite for his prodigious power, keen eye and lack of playing time, Branyan comes full-circle by returning to the team that originally drafted him back in 1994. The 34 year-old has a career 114 wRC+, with a twelve percent walk rate and a .257 Isolated Power. But because he does something aesthetically displeasing (strike out) a ton, and has some issues with lefties (though he’s not terrible against them), Branyan has been traded five times and released twice. He’s been to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Seattle. He’s been everywhere, man.

Prior to the 2009 season, the lefty thumper signed a modest one-year contract with the Mariners. He cracked the 500 plate appearance mark for the first time in his career, batting .251/.347/.520 with 31 bombs and a 129 wRC+. Unfortunately, a herniated disk in his lower back ended his season in late August.

CHONE projects Branyan to hit .243/.335/.497 next year, with a 121 wRC+. Just how he fits into Cleveland’s plans remains to be seen, however. Branyan has experience playing all of the corner spots on the field, but he hasn’t played third base since 2008 and hasn’t roamed the outfield since 2007. Given the back ailment, he’s almost surely a first baseman only, while spotting for Travis Hafner at DH from time to time.

That opens up a couple of questions. Namely, what does Branyan’s signing meaning for Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley?

LaPorta (projected by CHONE for a 112 wRC+) has a big bat, but also has limited range and underwent hip and toe surgeries during the off-season. The Branyan deal could mean that LaPorta isn’t fully mended. Or, it could indicate that the Indians are still giving consideration to having LaPorta patrol left field next season (his Total Zone numbers in the minors suggest he’d be a liability). In that case, Brantley (projected 98 wRC+, with 26 SB) would have an uncertain role with the club.

There are many moving parts here. Pay close attention to Cleveland’s plans for Branyan, LaPorta and Brantley leading up to draft day. Given Hafner’s shoulder and Branyan’s back, there could be enough playing time for all of these guys to remain fantasy relevant.

Time to get all up in that left field position and see what we can find (sounds dirty). It’s an interesting position because it sports a top-five man (Ryan Braun, at 4.87 ADP), and yet the final tier averages somewhere around a 250 ADP. It’s not the deepest of positions, or it’s at least top-heavy.

The second tier has a bunch of second- and third-round guys that can offer some speed or slugging (in the case of Matt Holliday (21.89 ADP), a little of both), but there’s a curious inclusion in the tier that stands out. Right there, in the fifth round, there’s a player that could give you third-round value a good twenty picks later. Why are people avoiding Manny Ramirez (65.30) like the plague? Of course, there’s the obvious answer that comes in the form of a positive test for the wrong substance – and perhaps that should make people nervous. It’s a fly in the ointment and it probably won’t help to quote the projections that have Manny being the Manny of old (minus a few points for getting older). It’s a risk that has to be accounted for.

But lets say your league doesn’t break things down into separate positions in the outfield, then Manny comes in right around Andre Ethier (67.48 ADP) and Nelson Cruz (67.66 ADP). Those guys come with their own risk attached. Remember that Ethier used to be a 20-home-run-hitting outfielder as recently as 2008, and that Cruz, despite all his power and speed, has a 26% career strikeout percentage and a .255 career batting average (though I will admit to liking his power and speed contributions). Which risk do you take?

The next tier has some nice power, and even bounce-back candidate Alfonso Soriano (ADP 78.40) for power/speed potential too. But again, one man stands out like a sore thumb. Nolan Reimold (ADP 214.72) is young and has power and speed and a starting job that he should keep all year because of the rebuilding nature of his team. Much has been made of his Achilles’ injury, but perhaps many aren’t aware that Reimold made his stellar debut (.279/.369/.466 with 15 home runs and 8 stolen bases and a .365 wOBA) while being hobbled for much of the year with a 25% tear on that same tendon. What will he do once it heals? At that ADP, the shot at a .280 20+/10 outfielder should make you salivate. (At least it does that for me, am I weird?)

I’d hate to go all crazy on young ‘uns because there are plenty of values among the older left fielders. Plenty of old man skills, at least – Josh Willingham (270.94) sports those and is a value when surrounded by players like Carlos Ruiz (275.41 ADP) and Scott Hairston (277.51 ADP).

But I’m drawn to upside, and there’s Matt LaPorta (325.88 ADP) sitting right there for the plucking. He’s had some strikeout issues in the past, and he’s been a little old for his minor league levels, so he may not be the ueber-prospect we thought he was. But he has real power – his .188 debut ISO was low compared to his minor league power – and that’s always got a place in my lineup. Especially at this price.

Remember J.R. Towles? A few years back, Towles was the cream of a rather barren crop of Astros prospects. Baseball America rated the backstop as Houston’s top farm talent prior to the 2008 season, praising his diverse skill set and noting that the Astros envisioned Towles becoming the club’s first All-Star catcher since 1991, when Craig Biggio was blocking pitches instead of turning two.

Entering 2010, however, Towles’ career prospects are considerably dimmer. He made his big league debut in September of 2007, but two bitter cups of coffee in 2008 and 2009 have soured Houston’s opinion of its former prized pupil. And, if you listen closely, you can hear 2008 first-round pick Jason Castro breathing down Towles’ neck.

The Astros have received precious little from the catching position. In 2008, Houston had a collective .256 wOBA from those donning the tools of ignorance (29th in the majors). The team “improved” to .276 in 2009, rocketing up to 28th in the big leagues. Offensive ciphers like Brad Ausmus, Humberto Quintero and Ivan Rodriguez have been penciled into the lineup, as Towles toiled in Triple-A, on the bench or on the DL.

So, what’s going on here? Is Towles a bust, or have the Astros shot themselves in the foot by preferring veterans with slack bats? Who shot J.R.’s career? Let’s examine Towles’ history to figure out who done it.

Selected in the 20th round of the 2004 draft out of North Central Junior College, Towles basically spent the first three seasons of his pro career bashing and getting banged up.

He struggled in rookie ball during the summer of ’04, but batted a combined .327/.402/.534 in the Low-A South Atlantic in 2005 and 2006. Towles didn’t draw many walks (7.2 BB%) but he made frequent, loud contact (14.6 K%, with a .207 Isolated Power). Unusually agile for a catcher, Towles also earned some Jason Kendall comps by swiping 24 bases between ’05 and ’06 (he was caught 12 times, however).

However, Towles couldn’t answer the bell with any frequency. According to Baseball America, he needed surgery in 2004 after taking a foul tip off of his right index finger, slowing him at the start of 2005, and he dealt with right knee tendinitis in 2006.

Two-thousand seven turned out to be J.R.’s breakout campaign. He started slowly in the High-A Carolina League, but mashed after getting bumped up to the Double-A Texas League following Lou Santangelo’s 50-game PED suspension. He also logged some games in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

In 422 combined PA, spent mostly in Double-A, Towles hit .287/.393/.447. J.R. drew ball four 8.8 percent of the time, whiffing 13.5 percent with a .160 ISO. Towles stole 14 bags, but he did far more harm than good by getting nabbed 13 times. A late-season stint in Houston was fruitful (a 157 wRC+ in 44 PA).

Towles looked poised to ease the anguish of Astros fans subjected to way, way too much Ausmus and Quintero behind the plate. From ’07 to 2009, he compiled .289/.375/.455 triple-slash with Round Rock, walking 9.3 percent, striking out 15.5 percent and posting a .166 ISO.

Yet, after two dismal stints with Houston, Towles’ career line in the majors would make Ausmus puff out his chest: .188/.280/.329 in 268 PA, a performance which rates as 38 percent worse than average, once park and league factors are accounted for (62 wRC+).

Those numbers probably make fantasy owners want to run and hide. But those willing to give Towles a chance could snag a quality offensive catcher at a dirt cheap price.

Chill out about the major league performance. We’re talking about half of a season’s worth of PAs, spread over three years. Even if you want to slice and dice such a small sample (not a good idea), there are positives to be found. Towles has drawn a walk 8.2 percent, with a .141 ISO. His BABIP in the majors is unsustainably low, at .218.

The career .299/.390/.473 minor league hitter is projected by CHONE to bat .252/.332/.409 for the Astros in 2010. For reference, the overall line for MLB backstops last season was .254/.320/.395.

The 26 year-old has little star potential, and Castro (ranked as Houston’s top prospect) isn’t far off. Also, injuries remain a problem: according to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, J.R. was sidelined in both 2008 and 2009 with a strained hamstring, while missing time in ’09 with a fractured nose, too. But Towles figures to get the bulk of the playing time to start 2010.

Towles is far from a sure thing, given his propensity to get dinged up and Castro’s close major league ETA. Still, he has an interesting bat at a position where offense is often scarce. J.R. might not be long for Houston, but his career isn’t shot, either.

If you aren’t a Dungeon Master and actually leave the house every once and awhile, you know about the social faux pas that is double dipping. If not, “double dipping” is when you dip a chip, take a bite, and then dip again. It is frowned upon because not only are you a fat slob with an insatiable appetite for guacamole, but you are spreading your germs into the bowl of dip.

Double dipping shows up elsewhere in life, including fantasy leagues. What is Fantasy Baseball double dipping you ask? Fantasy double dipping is when an event affects two different stat categories in your league. When an event counts twice, it can skew league results slightly and have a small affect on player rankings. Fantasy double dipping comes in two forms: acceptable, and unacceptable. First, let us look at some acceptable double dipping:

• HR & R/RBI/AVG – A home run goes into almost every category, but since it is such a special event it can slide through.

That’s it! The above case is the only common acceptable case of double dipping. Now, some of the many unacceptable cases:

• ERA & QS – If you had a quality start, you had a low ERA.
• AVG & OBP – A walk counts once, but a hit counts twice? Absurd.
• OPS & OBP/SLG – OPS is “On-base plus slugging”. It’s in the name, people.

Consider this a public service announcement. In the words of the almighty Seinfeld, “Just take one dip and end it!”

Washington Nationals signed RHP Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year contract.

Wang apparently passed his physical with the Nationals already, no small feat considering his recent injury woes. According to Chico Harlan of The Washington Post, Wang will earn a base salary of $2 million, with $3 million in possible incentives. Washington will retain the soon-to-be 30 year-old’s rights through the 2011 season, as the former Yankee has less than five years of big league service time.

From 2005-2007, Wang was a metronome on the mound. The 6-3 right-hander posted xFIP marks in the low-four’s, whiffing and walking few while using a low-90’s sinker to get groundballs by the bushel:

2005: 116.1 IP, 3.64 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 63.9 GB%, 4.20 xFIP
2006: 218 IP, 3.14 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 62.8 GB%, 4.16 xFIP
2007: 199.1 IP, 4.7 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 58.4 GB%, 4.23 xFIP

Wang’s sinker, thrown over three-quarters of the time, was worth +1.11 runs per 100 pitches in 2005, +0.83 in ’06 and +0.60 in ’07. He supplemented the pitch with a low-to-mid-80’s slider, which was hit hard during his first two seasons (-0.51 runs/100 in ’05 and -0.68 in ’06) but was sharp in 2007 (+2.27).

He missed more bats (relatively speaking) and issued more free passes in ’07, placing fewer pitches within the strike zone while continuing a trend of decreased contacts rates and increased outside swing percentages:

2005: 52.3 Zone%, 88.3 Contact%, 18.7 O-Swing%
2006: 54.5 Zone%, 86 Contact%, 20.2 O-Swing%
2007: 49 Zone%, 84.6 Contact%, 24.5 O-Swing%

Chien-Ming again struck out more batters at the expense of some extra walks in 2008. In 95 frames, Wang punched out 5.12 hitters per nine innings, with 3.32 BB/9 and a 55% groundball rate. He had both his sinker (+0.82 runs/100) and slider (+1.62) working. As former Rotographs writer Peter Bendix noted, Wang’s extra K’s and ball fours essentially canceled each other out: his xFIP was a characteristic 4.20.

Unfortunately, Wang’s 2008 campaign would be cut well short. He suffered a nasty right foot injury running the bases in a mid-June contest with the Astros. Wang didn’t go under the knife, but the extensive damage to his foot and an arduous rehab program to mend it ended his season.

And then, the wheels fell off in 2009. Wang was whooped in April, with an ERA matching A-Rod’s age. The righty was placed on the DL with hip weakness, which was claimed to be a cascade injury related to his foot ailment suffered the previous year.

He returned to the majors in late May, making a few relief appearances, but continued to get drubbed upon being returned to the starting five in June. Wang’s season came to a close following a Fourth of July outing, as he required surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right shoulder capsule.

As new Fangraphs scribe Joe Pawlikowski showed, Wang’s release point has gradually become higher. Perhaps as a result, he didn’t get the same level of tailing or sinking action on his fastball in 2009. Wang was still an extreme worm burner (53.3 GB%), but not to the same extent as in years past.

You don’t really need me to tell you that Chien-Ming wasn’t 9.64 ERA-level bad. In 42 innings, he posted rates of 6.21 K/9 and 4.07 BB/9, with a 4.55 xFIP. His BABIP was an astronomical .397, his rate of stranding runners on base was just 53.1 percent, and his HR/FB rate was 17.1 percent.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, Wang won’t take a big league mound until May at the earliest, as he continues to rehab his shoulder.

It’s difficult to say how Wang will come back from the procedure. But, given his strong groundball tendencies, it’s worth checking out the quality of leather in Washington’s infield. Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Boxscore released projected 2010 UZR totals (more on the methodology here). Here’s how the Nationals figure to line up next year:

1B: Adam Dunn , -13 UZR/150
2B: Adam Kennedy, +1 UZR/150
SS: Cristian Guzman, -3 UZR/150
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, +10 UZR/150

Zimmerman is a world-class defender at the hot corner. But Dunn is a butcher, and the middle infield combo of Guzman and Kennedy doesn’t scream “range.” Shortstop prospect Ian Desmond will likely enter the picture at some point. There’s obviously not much UZR data on him, but his Total Zone numbers in the minors are pretty grim.

Fantasy owners can only take a wait-and-see approach with Wang at this point. He’s a worthwhile proposition for the Nationals, a club with just one starter whom CHONE projects to crack two WAR in 2010. However, even at his peak in the Bronx, Wang was one of those “more valuable in real life than fantasy” type of hurlers, given the low K rates. He might be a NL-only option during the summer, but that seems to be the extent of his upside.

Reader G. Azama submitted this question to me directly, but it’s a mailbag question nonetheless:

I’m in a 14 Team mixed keeper league. We get to keep any 7 players and as far as I know, there’s no limitation on how many years we get to keep the players.

Positions are C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,CI,MI, 5 OF, bunch of pitchers and long bench.

Stats are the basic 5×5 plus OPS and Holds. Because of the holds, Closers are hard to come by, in fact very hard to come by if you don’t draft them.

I had a pretty good team and got nip at the end and came in second. My potential keepers are Chase Utley, Tim Lincecum, Joey Votto, Kung-Fu Panda, Kendry Morales, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels.

Straight up keepers. Draft position from last year is not a factor.the draft will be done in the reverse order of the finish in every round. In other words, I will be drafting thirteenth on every round, since I came in second last year.

I’ve been banging my head against the wall trying to figure out what makes sense. As you can see I’ve got quite a few good young players! Hard decision. I think the top 4 are keepers for sure. It’s after that that I have a hard time deciding.

I completely agree that Timmy, Utley, Votto and Pablo Sandoval are instant keepers in this case. I also think that you need to keep Broxton to at least have one closer on your roster. That leaves us with Kendry, Ethier, Hanson and Hamels to fill two spots.

Kendry provided owners with more power than they could have ever hoped for, with a fantastic average to boot. For the most part, his 34 homers came out of no where, but he did have a brief history of power in Triple-A during the 2008 season, hitting 15 homers in 340 plate appearances. However, a .335 BABIP is likely to drop bringing his average down below the .300 mark. Also, Kendry doesn’t draw many walks so his value drops in OBP leagues, but an OPS league keeps his value high.

Ethier’s power last year was also a pleasant surprise, but his .272 average was a disappointment. He isn’t likely to hit 31 homers again, but 25 homers is not out of the question. Unlike Kendry, Ethier draws a walk and can keep his OPS high even when he is in a “slump”. His average should rise back to around .285, and a solid lineup around him means good production all around.

David Golebiewski already did quite the workup on Hanson in December, so I’m not going to step on his work and repeat what he said. Cole Hamels had a career year in 2008, and then posted career worst fantasy numbers in 2009. However, his FIP was exactly the same in both years, coming in at 3.72. Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up? 2010 is likely to be an average of 2008 and 2009, with his ERA coming in around 3.70 with good wins, strikeouts and WHIP.

I really like Kendry, but with Votto and Kung-Fu Panda already on the roster he is expendable. In a league with five outfielders, I’m keeping Either, that much I’m sure about. Now we are down to Hanson and Hamels for one last spot. Because there is no limit on how long you can keep players, I’m keeping Hanson.

To recap, I’m keeping Timmy, Utley, Votto, Panda, Broxton, Ethier and Hanson.

Have a question for the mailbag? Send it to rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com.

I participated in a 12-team mixed mock draft last night hosted by Baseball Digest Daily. I had the 10th pick and my strategy going in was to punt AVG and draft starting pitchers earlier than I normally would. My roster ended up like this:

Tim Lincecum (ADP 12)
Ian Kinsler (15)
Jason Bay (26)
Justin Verlander (44)
Nelson Cruz (64)
Carlos Pena (75)
Matt Wieters (96)
Gordon Beckham (94)
Ubaldo Jimenez (104)
Jay Bruce (118)
Carlos Marmol (139)
Elvis Andrus (158)
Carlos Gonzalez (122)
Scott Baker (155)
Brett Anderson (170)
Julio Borbon (187)
Chad Qualls (220)
Adam LaRoche (231)
Casey McGehee (221)
Mike Gonzalez (188)
Russ Branyan (computer problems and it went to auto pick – 217)
Homer Bailey (279)
Carlos Santana (320)

Punting AVG is something I never do in real drafts and I was pleasantly surprised by the offense I was able to amass. In hindsight I think perhaps I drafted Wieters and Marmol too high but I am pretty happy with the upside that this team possesses. Of course by punting AVG you also run the risk of finishing near the bottom in R, which would probably go a long way to determining the success of the strategy.

For those in the crowd who do punt AVG, please weigh in with your wisdom on what needs to be done to make this strategy successful.