Saturday was the deadline for clubs to offer a contract to arbitration-eligible players. There were plenty of non-tenders yesterday. Let’s take a quick look at some of the more intriguing position players now hitting the open market. I included each player’s CHONE projection for the 2010 season.

Garrett Atkins (.275/.345/.440, .342 wOBA)

This 30 year-old righty batter has been billed in the past as a power-hitting third baseman. But when one considers his substandard D at the hot corner (career -5 UZR/150 at 3B) and adjusts for the context of Coors, Atkins isn’t all he’s cracked up to be:

Atkins’ Park Adjusted Batting Runs, by season:

2005: -2.1
2006: +38.5
2007: +13.1
2008: -2.6
2009: -16.3

Atkins isn’t the cipher that his 2009 numbers would suggest, as he suffered from a .247 BABIP. But his Isolated Power has dipped four years running: .228 in 2006, .185 in 2007, .165 in 2008, and just .116 in 2009.

John Buck (.223/.304/.399, .305 wOBA)

With the Jason Kendall era inexplicably beginning in Kansas City, Buck got the boot. The 29 year-old backstop has ample power for the position (career .171 ISO), though he struggles to make contact (26.1 K%). Buck posted a career-high .332 wOBA in 2009, but that figure is likely to regress next year. He posted a .309 BABIP in an ’09 season interrupted by a back injury, compared to a .283 career mark. As a slow-footed catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score) who pops the ball up a lot (12.2 IF/FB%), expect Buck to hit more around his career .304 wOBA.

(Update: Buck inked a 1-year, $2M deal with the Blue Jays.)

Ryan Church (.267/.339/.419, .332 wOBA)

Bothered by back problems and a pulled hamstring, Church didn’t hit with much authority in 2009 (.111 ISO). Injuries have plagued the 31 year-old the past two seasons, as post-concussion syndrome slowed him in 2008. But when he’s able to take the field, Church is a fairly useful player. He’s a career .272/.345/.441 hitter, displaying a decent eye (9.3 BB%) and average power for his position (.169 ISO). The former Expo, National, Met and Brave has done most of his damage against righty batters.

Jack Cust (.229/.365/.426, .349 wOBA)

Cust revived his career in Oakland, as he walked nearly 20% of the time and posted a near-.250 ISO over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. The Three True Outcomes hero appeared to make a concerted effort to make more contact in 2009. His outside-swing percentage increased from roughly 14% in ’07-’08 to 17.5% (still well below the 25% MLB average), and his in-zone swing percentage climbed from 62% to 68% (65-66% MLB average). The result? Fewer K’s (relatively speaking: 36.1 K% in ’09, 39.5% career mark), and walks (15.3 BB% in ’09), as well as less pop (.177 ISO).

Ryan Garko (.273/.352/.444, .347 wOBA)

29 in January, Garko is a good, not great hitter at a position where players are supposed to mash. The average MLB first baseman swatted .277/.362/.483 in 2009 (.366 wOBA).

The former Indian has performed much better vs. southpaws during the course of his big league career. Here are Garko’s sOPS+ numbers against lefties and righties since 2007. sOPS+ compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, better than 100 indicates the hitter was above-average, less than 100 means he was below-average)

2007
vs. RHP: 123 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 128 sOPS+

2008
vs. RHP: 99 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 121 sOPS+

2009
vs. RHP: 97 sOPS+
vs. LHP: 126 sOPS+

Jonny Gomes (.247/.333/.487, .351 wOBA)

The archetypal slugger, Gomes bops (career .230 ISO) and plays defense like a guy wearing cinder blocks instead of cleats (-22.3 UZR/150 in the outfield). As such, his game might be more palatable to an A.L. club. In a fantastic environment for a pull-oriented righty, Gomes compiled a .373 wOBA for the Reds in 2009.

Kelly Johnson (.268/.346/.436, .341 wOBA)

Let’s compare Johnson’s 2008 and 2009 seasons:

2008: 8.7 BB%, 20.7 K%, .159 ISO, .344 BABIP, .346 wOBA
2009: 9.6 BB%, 17.8 K%, .165 ISO, .249 BABIP, .306 wOBA

The lefty batter (28 in February) walked a little more this past season, punched out less, and hit for a similar amount of power. Johnson’s BABIP, however, dipped nearly 100 points. Kelly’s XBABIP was .329 in 2008 and .313 in 2009. Here are what Johnson’s lines would have looked like in ’08 and ’09, based on his XBABIP figures (and this is assuming all additional hits were singles):

2008 actual line: .287/.349/.446, .346 wOBA
2008 adjusted line: .272/.334/.431, .333 wOBA

2009 actual line: .224/.303/.389, .306 wOBA
2009 adjusted line: .288/.367/.453, .359 wOBA

Johnson is no great shakes at second base (career -7.4 UZR/150), but he can also man the outfield corners and looks to be a strong candidate to bounce back in 2010. He’s still a quality offensive player.

When I think of relief pitchers, this Neil Young lyric pops into my head:

It’s better to burn out
Than to fade away
My my, hey hey.

The reign of a top bullpen arm can be transient. One minute, a guy is on top of the world, entering the game to a heavy metal tune and a boisterous crowd reception worthy of a heavyweight champion. The next, he’s posting a 4.65 ERA with the Quebec Capitales (Qu’est-ce qui se passe, Eric Gagne?)

J.J. Putz can well understand. The 6-5 righty was a run-of-the-mill middle reliever with the Mariners in 2004 and 2005. Then, he found an extra gear on his fastball, added a splitter and became a monster out of the M’s pen. Now, after two lost seasons, Putz has inked a one-year, $3M deal with the White Sox with $3.25M in incentives.

Putz posted nearly six wins above replacement between 2006 and 2007, with rates of 11.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. His mid-90’s fastball posted run values of +2.06 per 100 pitches in ’06 and +2.58 in ’07, with his splitter and slider also causing hitters to walk back to the dugout mumbling to themselves. J.J. had 2.11 xFIP in 2006 and a 2.82 mark in 2007.

Unfortunately, Putz’s time as a bullpen rock star ended there. His 2008 season was marred by ribcage and elbow maladies, limiting him to 46.1 IP. Putz still whiffed plenty of batters (10.88 K/9), but his control deserted him (5.44 BB/9). He pounded the strike zone during his glory days (54 InZone% in 2006 and 2007), but J.J. put just 47.5% of his pitches over the plate in ’08 (the MLB average has been around 50-52% over the past three seasons).

Following the season, Seattle swapped Putz to the Mets as part of a three-team, 12-player deal. Rather than re-establishing his value as K-Rod’s set-up man, Putz threw just 29.1 frames before succumbing to surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

He was a shell of his former self in 2009, walking as many batters as he punched out (5.83 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9). Putz’s fastball was down a couple of ticks, and the pitch was plastered (-1.63 runs/100). His contact rate soared, sitting at 82.7% compared to a 76% career average. With Putz a mess on the mound, opposing hitters were content to lay off his stuff (17.9 outside-swing percentage in ’09, compared to about 25% in 2007 and 2008).

Looking at Putz’s Pitch F/X data, there’s an interesting trend in the vertical movement on his splitter. Pitch F/X splits Putz’s off-speed stuff into changeups and splitters, classifying most of them as changeups. I’m going to lump them together here, and call them all splitters. Take a look at the difference in the vertical movement in Putz’s fastball and splitter over the past three years:

Vertical movement on Putz’s fastball and splitter, 2007-2009
2007
Fastball: 10.9 Z
Splitter: 6.4 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 4.5 inches

2008
Fastball: 9.9 Z
Splitter: 4.1 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 5.8 inches

2009
Fastball: 9.8 Z
Splitter: 2.7 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 7.1 inches

There’s now a pronounced difference in vertical movement between Putz’s fastball and splitter. Perhaps there’s a point of diminishing returns with the separation between those two pitches: if there’s too much of a difference, hitters will be able to distinguish between the fastball and splitter and simply lay off those tumbling off-speed pitches they once flailed at.

On the south side, Putz is no better than third in line for save chances, behind incumbent Bobby Jenks (3.63 xFIP in 2009) and set-up man Matt Thornton (2.79 xFIP). Hey, it still beats the Can Am League.

Ryan Doumit’s battled a slew of injuries since he began his professional career with the Pirates as a second round pick in 1999. He was mentioned in each of Baseball America’s first prospect handbooks until he lost prospect eligibility in 2005.

In 2008 Doumit put it all together and appeared in a career high 116 games and registered 465 at-bats for the Pirates. He’s appeared exclusively as a catcher for the Bucs’ since 2008 began after spending some time at first base and the outfield.

Healthy and playing regularly in 2008 Doumit turned in one of the leagues finer lines from the catcher position. He hit .318/.357/.501 which is good for a .367 wOBA and a nifty 4.0 WAR score.

Encouraged by the results the Pirates locked up the 28 year old to a long term deal that guaranteed Doumit $11.5 million over three years before the 2009 season. The Pirates also hold a unique two year option for $15.5 over the 2012 and 2013 seasons that the club must decide to accept or decline after 2011.

Towards the end of April the injury bug bit Doumit again. This time he fractured his wrist in April after 45 at-bats. He returned from injury on July 19 after a dissapointing minor league rehab stint where he only registered two hits in 24 at-bats across two levels. This continued upon his return to the big leagues (he hit .246/.261/.431 in July and .176/.231/.329 in August over 150 at-bats) and some frustration began to mount for Doumit. After his agent cleared up some misconceptions early in September he took off and finished the season strong with a .346/.424/.481 showing in 81 September at-bats.

Despite his hot finish Doumit finished the year with a .250/.299/.414 line (.306 wOBA) in 75 games and 280 at-bats. The tricky wrist injury didn’t seem to help his production at all but Doumit should be reporting to spring training at full health. Doumit has generated some trade interest this off season and he has a relatively friendly contract but his value is down and the Pirates likely won’t sell on him at a severely discounted rate.

Doumit’s career year in 2008 was aided by a robust .338 BABIP. This helped pad his slash line and especially his batting average. His BABIP plummeted to .271 in 2009 and for his career Doumit has a slightly above average .307 BABIP. Doumit’s 2009 walk rate (6.7%) remained in line with his 2008 rate (5.1%) but he struck out more often in 2009 (17.5%) compared to a lesser 12.8% in 2008. Doumit had struck out in 20+% of his at-bats in each year with the big league club prior to his breakout 2008 so some of the regression we saw in 2009 shouldn’t be seen as stunning.

Although the classification of line drives can be tricky (per scorer in different ballparks) Doumit did see his line drive percentage slip to 17.9% in 2009 compared to 23.4% in 2008. This implies that he wasn’t hitting the ball as hard in 2009 as he did in 2008. For the first time in his career he struggled mightily with fastballs (-0.77 run value per 100 pitches) and breaking stuff (-2.62 run value per 100 pitches against sliders and -0.96 versus curve balls).

With the help of the expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a clearer picture of Doumit’s expected BABIPs (XBABIP) based on his batted ball profile. Here are the XBABIPS for the past three years for Doumit:

2009 (280 at-bats): .314
2008 (431 at-bats): .314
2007 (251 at-bats): .320

Interestingly enough, Doumit’s XBABIPS for 2008 and 2009 are exactly the same despite the very different line drive percentages. If we apply the XBABIPS to each of Doumit’s slash stats over the past three seasons we end up with these revised triple slashes assuming that all hits added or subtracted were singles:

2009 (280 at-bats): .293/.342/.457
2008 (431 at-bats): .294/.333/.477
2007 (251 at-bats): .262/.329/.460

Interesting. It’s evident that Doumit underperformed in 2009 (and yes the injury likely played a role) but he over performed in 2008. The abnormally high BABIP helped him a lot in 2008 and with some regression over the past three seasons we get a better idea of where Doumit’s true skill set stands.

Doumit is entering his age 29 season and it appears that he will report to spring training healthy. Doumit has been anything but durable and healthy over his career but freak injuries like his wrist injury in 2009 could happen to any player.

I’d project Doumit to hit for a solid batting average and he’s going to get on base at an above average clip and also slug at an above average rate. The Bill James 2010 projection of .285/.341/.471 with 15 home runs seems very accurate. If Doumit stays on the field you could expect closer to 20 long balls.

Doumit is coming off of a down year and you’ll need to closely monitor his health but the systems are pointing at him to be a top ten catching option next season. He’s going to slip in drafts but don’t wait too long to take him. Gamble a little earlier around rounds six through nine. He has the potential to really be worth it and make a noticeable difference in your fantasy league.

For the Baltimore Orioles, the Erik Bedard trade is the gift that keeps on giving.

In February of 2008, the O’s swapped their talented-but-brittle ace to the Mariners for Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, Kam Mickolio and Adam Jones.

Tillman will team up with 2008 first-rounder Brian Matusz to give Baltimore a deadly one-two punch at the top of the rotation. Sherrill was shipped to the Dodgers last summer for third baseman of the future Joshua Bell.

Those elements alone would make the Bedard deal one of the great heists in recent memory. But the O’s also snagged one of the most talented young outfielders in the game in Jones.

A supplemental first-round pick in the 2003 amateur draft, Jones was pushed aggressively through the Mariners’ farm system. He reached Double-A by the age of 19, and got his first taste of big league action as a 20 year-old in 2006.

Jones was a shortstop until ’06, but the 6-2, 210 pounder outgrew the position.
Despite being several years younger than his peers and juggling a position switch, Jones faired remarkably well in the minors. He batted a combined .301/.364/.538 at the AAA level in 2006 and 2007, posting a whopping .237 ISO.

Jones’ plate discipline needed some work (he walked in 7.2% of his plate appearances in AAA), and he understandably scuffled in limited playing time with the M’s over those two seasons (.241 wOBA in ’06, .306 in ’07). But it’s hard to find fault with a precocious, up-the-middle prospect beating the snot out of the baseball.

Following the big trade, the Orioles committed to giving Jones the starting gig in center field. In his first full season in the majors in 2008, the righty batter posted a .270/.311/.400 line and a .313 wOBA in 514 PA. This past year, he raised his triple-slash to .277/.335/.457 in 519 PA (.343 wOBA). Jones’ bat went from being worth -7 Park Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08 to +6.1 in ’09. What changed, and what does it mean for his future?

Jones’ walk rate increased from 4.6 percent in 2008 to 7.1 in 2009, while his whiff rate dropped from 22.6 percent to 19.7 percent. The first inclination is to assume that the 24 year-old did a better job of laying off pitches out of the zone while making more contact.

However, that wasn’t really the case. Jones’ outside-swing percentage did indeed fall, but only from 36.2 percent in ’08 to 35.3 percent in ’09 (the major league average is about 25 percent). His contact rate actually decreased, from 76.9 percent to 74.6 percent (80-81 percent MLB average). So, how did he draw more walks and punch out less often?

Opposing pitchers appeared to tread more cautiously when Jones was at the dish in 2009. In ’08, 52.7 percent of the pitches tossed his way were within the strike zone (the MLB average was 51.1 percent that year). In 2009, pitchers gave Jones something over the plate just 48.4 percent of the time (49.3 percent MLB average). His first-pitch strike percentage fell from 66 percent to 57.8 percent (58 percent MLB average).

The reason for that extra care might have been Jones’ increased power output. His Isolated Power climbed from .130 in 2008 to .180 in 2009. Jones cranked 19 home runs this past season, compared to nine the previous year.

He was often tied up by quality fastballs during his rookie campaign, with a run value of -0.81 per 100 pitches vs. fastballs and a lofty 14.5 infield/fly ball rate. In his sophomore season, Jones was average vs. heaters (-0.09 runs/100 pitches) and didn’t pop the ball up near as much (5.6 infield/fly ball percentage).

Jones’ home run/fly ball rate spiked, from 6.9 percent to 17.8 percent. When he hit a fly ball, it did serious damage: Jones slugged .895 on fly balls in 2009, compared to the .603 A.L. average. Compare that to 2008, when he slugged .511 on fly balls (.566 A.L. average).

However, Jones hit far fewer fly balls overall:

His groundball rate soared from 46.8 percent in 2008 to 55.4 percent in ’09. Jones’ rate of grounders hit in ’09 eclipsed such power luminaries as Cristian Guzman, Nyjer Morgan and Emilio Bonifacio.

Despite not being a huge stolen base threat, Jones does possess quality speed. His career Speed Score is 6.2 (the MLB average is about five). That could help explain Jones’ career .256 batting average on ground balls, well above the .241 A.L. average over the past few seasons. So, Jones has the wheels to beat out more worm-burners than the average hitter. But hopefully he can learn to loft the ball more often, given his raw power.

Jones has experienced a few minor health problems, though nothing to really lose sleep over. He served a DL stint in 2008 after fracturing his left foot on a foul ball, and a sprained left ankle ended his 2009 season in early September. He’s already good to go, though.

Overall, Jones’ 2009 season was very promising. He learned to fight off big league fastballs, not getting jammed nearly as much as in his rookie season. Jones also hit the ball with more authority, which may have helped him get in more hitter’s counts. If he can hone his strike zone control and take full advantage of his strength, Jones could emerge as a full-fledged star in 2010.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, and left fielders.)

These rankings are for 5×5 rotisserie fantasy baseball. Eligibility was determined by where the player had the most at-bats last year.

The tier-of-his-own player in right field is Justin Upton, and I doubt there will be too much grumbling about this ranking for a guy who hit .300 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his firs full year. Sure, we may talk a little about his high BABIP (.364), but for now let’s just look at the fan projections and sigh.

That should end the easy portion of our rankings today. Perhaps this is just a little self-pity in anticipation of the comments thread, but the next two tiers could be a single tier, or could be three tiers, and could probably be re-arranged ad infinitum. We’ll give Ichiro! Suzuki credit for his BABIP and (sexy) infield-hitting prowess which are perfect for the right fantasy team.

Now come the players that are impossible to rank. Where do you put a guy like Nelson Cruz, who will give you great power and speed, but will hurt your batting average? Could he be any more different from Shin-Soo Choo, who is is solid across the board but won’t win you a single category? Bobby Abreu is in the Choo-mold, but we’ll move him back a little for the waning power and, to be frank, his old age and body type. It hasn’t hurt him yet, but someday, well it just has to. Right?

I don’t think blame can be attributed for seeing a separation after Abreu. While Nick Markakis is a metronome, his steady ticking doesn’t provide much beyond a .300 average and 20 home runs. The steals in 2007 have proved to be an aberration, and while he may get a power spike some year, there’s no way to predict it. Andre Ethier should, with a better BABIP (.292 in 2009, .316 xBABIP, .322 career BABIP), have a better batting average next year, but is the power real? When Bill James shaves seven home runs off your total, you should take notice. He may not hit 40+% fly balls next year. Some will complain about Jayson Werth’s placement, because he certainly looks like a Nelson-Cruz-lite, and they might be right. But Werth has had issues with staying on the field, and with his batting average and strikeout issues, the tier seems right.

Jay Bruce may just zoom up the charts next year and make his ranking seem silly, but at least the fans are backing my sense that we should temper our enthusiasm on the young slugger just a tad. He does seem like a great upside play, better than the young but inconsistent Hunter Pence behind him, who has seemingly showed us his best already. Brad Hawpe has some strikeout issues, some defense issues, and never really showed the power we thought he might. Forgive me for not believing in the simultaneous spike in both flyball rate (39.6% in 2009, 35.7% career) and HR/FB (17.1% in 2009, 12.9% career) and agreeing with the projections that say Michael Cuddyer’s power may subside next year.

The last tier is not very exciting in my mind. Nick Swisher’s batting average ranges from awful to terrible, Jermaine Dye is getting older and posted a six-year low in line drive percentage (16.9%), Garrett Jones was a 28-year-old rookie who had done nothing before 2007 in the minor leagues, and Magglio Ordonez, well we all saw what happened there. In fact, I would rather wait until the end of the draft to pick someone off of the “just off” list, so the Deep League Value piece this Sunday will feature some gems.

According to MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel, the Royals have released arbitration-eligible DH/1B Mike Jacobs.

Ignoring Jacobs’ allergy to reaching base (career OBP: 313), inability to handle fellow lefties (.221/.269/.374 career vs. LHP) and iron glove (-9.0 UZR at first base), GM Dayton Moore acquired the 29 year-old from the Marlins last offseason for RHP Leo Nunez. Jacobs posted a .305 wOBA in 2009, which comes to -10.3 runs below average with the bat.

With Jacobs out of town, the Royals could look to Josh Fields or Kila Kaaihue to DH.

Fields, soon to be 27, was picked up along with Chris Getz earlier this offseason for Mark Teahen.

The 18th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Fields is a career .229/.302/.416 hitter in 746 major league PA. He posted a .336 wOBA and popped 23 HR with the White Sox back in 2007, but his career prospects have dimmed considerably since then.

Fields hit a mild .256/.341/.431 at AAA Charlotte in 2008 and .265/.357/.469 in 2009.

The former college QB has done a decent job of working the count in the majors, with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a 23.8 outside-swing percentage. Contact, however, has been hard to come by. Fields has whiffed 34 percent of the time, with a 71.1% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).

In the minors, the 6-2 righty batter showed a platoon split. Fields whapped lefty pitching for a .279/.386/.494 line, while hitting righties at a .266/.348/.443 rate.

In the big leagues, Fields has smacked southpaws for a .285/.356/.580 triple-slash, while laying an egg against same-handed hurlers (.206/.280/.348). It’s a good idea not to get too worked up about platoon splits based on a fairly small sample. But as a guy in his late twenties with limited defensive value, Fields is going to have to show more offensive force to remain relevant.

CHONE projects Fields to bat .247/.330/.407 in 2010 (.325 wOBA). ZiPS is even more pessimistic, throwing out a .237/.311/.394 line (.310 wOBA).

Ka’aihue, 25, always displayed a keen eye in the minors, but his performance was nondescript until 2008.

The Kila Monster batted a combined .314/.456/.628 between the AA Texas League and the AAA Pacific Coast League in ’08. The big lefty hitter walked an astounding 20.2 percent of the time, with a .314 ISO. Per Minor League Splits, Ka’aihue’s major league equivalent line was .243/.354/.442.

With Jacobs competing with the Guillens, Betancourts and Olivos of the world to see who could trot back to the dugout quickest, Kila spent 2009 back at AAA Omaha. While he was still exceptionally patient (18.8 BB%), Ka’aihue’s power output was disappointing (.181 ISO). Kila’s .252/.392/.433 showing with the O-Royals equated to just a .205/.316/.325 major league line.

It’s hard not to admire Ka’aihue’s zen-like patience at the plate. But first base/DH prospects, in their mid-twenties, with limited power, don’t translate especially well to the next level. CHONE tabs Kila for a .243/.355/.393 line in 2010 (.335 wOBA), while ZiPS envisions a .255/.350/.403 performance (.335 wOBA). Ka’aihue is pretty much the new Dan Johnson.

Of course, the Royals could go outside the organization to fill the DH spot. Or, they could shift Billy Butler back to the spot and pursue a first baseman. It’s also possible that the charred remains of Jose Guillen’s career could shift to DH full-time (sigh).

There’s no time like the present for both Fields and Ka’aihue. Each needs to produce in the here and now to avoid becoming intimately familiar with the AAA circuit.

Righty reliever Rafael Soriano, a Type A free agent fresh off a dominant 2009 season, caught the Atlanta Braves off guard when he accepted the club’s offer of arbitration.

Having already ponied up for Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito via free agency, Atlanta didn’t want to spend another $8M or so on the ‘pen.

According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, the Braves have swapped Soriano to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-hander Jesse Chavez.

In Tampa, Soriano becomes a prime candidate for ninth inning duty. His injury history is extensive: Soriano’s 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons were wiped out by elbow surgeries. But in ’09, the soon-to-be 30 year-old turned in one of the better relief performances in the majors.

In 75.2 IP, Soriano punched out a career-high 12.13 hitters per nine innings, while issuing 3.21 BB/9. His K rate placed second among relievers, bested only by Jonathan Broxton’s 13.5 punch outs per nine frames. Soriano’s 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA ranked 9th among ‘pen arms.

Soriano attacks hitters with a wicked low-90’s fastball/low-80’s slider combo. In 2009, Rafael’s heater was worth +1.42 runs per 100 pitches (his run value with the fastball since 2002 is +1.28 per 100 tosses). His slider baffled batters to the rune of +1.39 runs/100 (+1.54 since 2002).

The former Mariner doesn’t dawdle around on the mound: he goes right after the opposition. Soriano located 53.6% of his pitches within the strike zone in ’09, which ranked in the top 15 among relievers. His InZone percentage since 2002 is 54.2. Hitters struggled to do much with those pitches over the plate, as Soriano had the second-lowest percentage of in-zone contact among relievers (Oakland’s Andrew Bailey took home first place).

With the Rays, Soriano’s primary competition for save chances will be southpaw J.P. Howell.

From a scouting standpoint, Howell is the anti-Soriano. The former Royals starter cracks the mid-80’s with his fastball on a good day, and tossed the pitch less than half of the time in 2009.

Rather, Howell mixes in a bunch of low-80’s curveballs and high-70’s changeups. Both of those pitches were superb in 2009 (+1.58 runs/100 for the curve, +3.2 for the change of pace). Whereas Soriano’s high heat gets few ground balls (career 30.8 GB%), J.P. burned worms at a 51.8% clip from 2008-2009.

Despite the finesse repertoire, Howell has whiffed 9.87 per nine innings over the past two years, with 4.15 BB/9. He posted a 3.54 xFIP in 2008 and a 3.47 xFIP in 2009.

Considering Howell’s ability to toss multiple frames, Soriano would appear the be the front-runner for saves in Tampa Bay. Both are well-qualified for the role, however.

As for Chavez, the 26 year-old will be changing teams for the second time this offseason and the third time during his career. The former Rangers prospect was shipped to Pittsburgh on deadline day in 2006 in exchange for Kip Wells. He was traded to Tampa earlier this offseason for 2B Akinori Iwamura.

In three seasons at the AAA level, Chavez punched out 8.2 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.6 per nine. The 6-2 righty posted a 4.49 xFIP with the Bucs in ’09, with rates of 6.28 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.

Chavez showed off a pair of quality secondary pitches (+3.16 runs/100 for his high-80’s slider, and +0.89 for a mid-80’s changeup/splitter). His mid-90’s gas, however, was blasted for -0.72 runs/100. The fly ball-centric reliever was plagued by the long ball, surrendering 1.47 HR/9. In Atlanta, Chavez figures to fill a 6th/7th inning role.

After trading for Matt Lindstrom earlier in the day, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com is reporting the Astros have signed reliever Brandon Lyon to a deal.

When I wrote about Lindstrom’s signing, I said this regarding the Astros’ late inning options:

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely.

Well, it looks like you can count on Valverde signing elsewhere this offseason.

Lyon is now likely to be the closer in Houston, pushing Lindstrom to a setup role for the Astros. Lyon’s last stint as a closer was with Arizona in 2008, and it didn’t exactly go well. In 59.1 innings, Lyon saved 26 games in 31 chances. He ended the year with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.48, to go along with 44 strikeouts and a 3.84 FIP (4.10 xFIP).

After the 2008 season, Lyon signed with Detroit as a free agent, and spent the year setting up games for Fernando Rodney. Lyon made himself look better as a Tiger, pitching 78.2 innings in 2009 and ending the year with an ERA of 2.86. However, his walk rate rose (from 1.97 to 3.55 BB/9) and his strikeout rate stayed the same. His FIP on the year was 4.06, with an xFIP of 4.24.

With a sub-par strikeout rate and higher walk rate, Lyon is a tough own even if he is getting save chances. His ERA is likely to rise closer to his career line of 4.20, with a WHIP near 1.40. He should be able to get ~30 saves in Houston, but is still a lower tier closer. I was more excited about Lindstrom getting save opportunities, but Lyon is a bit of a safer draft pick next year.

According to Peter Gammons of ESPN, the Houston Astros have acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Florida Marlins.

After Kevin Gregg was dealt to the Cubs last year, Lindstrom started the 2009 season as the Marlins closer. In 54 games with the Marlins last season, Lindstrom recorded 15 saves in 17 chances. He posted a 5.89 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Lindstrom missed 38 days from late June to early August after suffering a right elbow strain.

After going on the disabled list, Lindstrom returned to the Marlins only to find Leo Nunez occupying the closers role. Lindstrom only had one save opportunity in August and September, and he converted it. Seeing that Nunez was good enough to close for them and Lindstrom was eligible for arbitration, the Marlins made the decision to deal him to save some money.

Lindstrom is one of those guys I have always liked, even though the numbers tell me I shouldn’t. It must be his sexy fastball, which clocks in at an average 96.6 MPH. Lindstrom also throws a slider, and a rare splitter.

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely. If Lindstrom gets the first shot at closing and runs with it, expect 25+ saves with an ERA over 4.30. and a WHIP close to 1.50. These numbers aren’t spectacular, but Lindstrom provides solid strikeouts (7.42 K/9 last year), so he is ownable as a lower tier closer.

In Florida, Nunez seems to have the hold on the closers job going into next season. He saved 26 games in 33 chances, striking out 60 batters in 68.2 innings in 2009. He is a lower tier closer like Lindstrom, but I would rather have Nunez on my fantasy squad than Lindstrom.

As you probably have heard, the Detroit Tigers pulled off a major deal at the winter meetings. No, I’m not talking about shipping Clay Rapada to the Rangers for a PTBNL.

Detroit picked up RHP Max Scherzer, LHPs Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke and OF prospect Austin Jackson in a three-team swap, shipping Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson out of town in the process. Let’s take a closer look at Austin Jackson’s value, now that his path to an eventual starting spot in the big leagues is clearer.

An 8th round pick in the 2005 amateur draft, Jackson received an $800,000 signing bonus to forego a scholarship to play basketball at Georgia Tech.

The 6-1, 185 pound righty batter made his full-season debut in 2006, batting .260/.339/.346 in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Jackson worked the count well (10.2 BB%) and swiped 37 bags in 49 attempts (76% success rate). However, rarely put a charge into the ball (.086 ISO), and he punched out in 28.2 percent of his PA.

Following the year, Baseball America named Jackson the 18th best prospect in the Yankees system. BA said that he “confused scouts as both an amateur and now as a pro.” They claimed that Jackson’s speed wasn’t really as advertised. Big SB numbers and hoops background aside, BA rated Austin’s wheels as “fringy,” limiting his range in center field. He also needed to “dramatically improve his breaking-ball recognition.”

Jackson began 2007 back in the Sally League, where he showed modest improvement in the power department. He hit .260/.336/.374 in 266 PA, walking 9.3% of the time and whiffing 25.1%. Jackson’s ISO climbed to a still-modest .115, and he stole 19 bases in 25 tries (76 percent success rate).

Bumped up to the High-A Florida State League in the summer, Jackson emerged as a top talent in New York’s system. His .345/.398/.566 triple-slash in 284 PA was aided by a sky-high .395 BABIP. But Jackson smacked 10 homers in the FSL, more than he had hit in his entire career prior to that point. His ISO spiked to .221. The extra thump came at the expense of some walks (7.9 BB%), but Jackson did pare his K rate to 18.6% while going 13-for-18 in SB attempts (72 percent).

Following his reign of terror with the Tampa Yankees, Jackson ascended to #2 on New York’s prospect list entering 2008. BA changed its tone regarding his defense, saying that Jackson had “developed above-average range in center field.” He was labeled a “future all-star candidate” by Yankees brass.

Jackson spent all of 2008 in the AA Eastern League, where he posted a .285/.354/.419 line in 584 PA. While 2007’s prodigious power display didn’t persist, Jackson managed an adequate .135 ISO. His walk rate perked back up to 9.7%, and he punched out 21.7% of the time. Austin was a more efficient base thief, with 19 SB in 25 tries (76 percent). Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Bronx Bombers’ farm system.

In 2009, Jackson patrolled all three outfield spots in the AAA International League, still spending most of his time in the middle pasture. His .300/.354/.405 triple-slash in 557 PA looks like business as usual, but there are some underlying signs that Jackson needs more development time.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old benefitted from an unsustainable .390 BABIP. Jackson is a swift runner (as evidenced by his 24 steals in 28 attempts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre), and his career BABIP in the minors is .361. He has the skill-set of a high BABIP hitter. But a number creeping up on .400 isn’t going to continue.

Jackson wasn’t a complete hacker at the dish, but his rate of free passes taken dipped to 7.4%, and his K rate rose to 24.4%. He didn’t hit with much authority either, with a .105 ISO. Jackson’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) line was .258/.308/.342, according to Minor League Splits. That equates to a wOBA of about .291.

Long-term, Austin Jackson looks as though he could be an average to slightly above-average everyday center fielder. However, the Tigers should resist the urge to have him patrolling Comerica Park’s spacious outfield come April. Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .252/.307/.359 line (.296 wOBA). Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS calls for a .245/.296/.338 line (.282 wOBA).

Those in keeper league should keep an eye on Jackson, as he projects to be a league average hitter long-term (Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for him is .277/.346/.406) with the speed to steal 20 bags. Just don’t count on him come opening day.