Let’s have a look around the Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ’09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you’ve probably already heard, Strasburg (The No. 1 overall pick in June’s amateur draft) won his first official pro appearance last week. The right-hander pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and one walk. He struck out two batters but, more importantly, he recorded all eight of his in-play outs via the ground ball. A pitcher with a dominating repertoire and a significant ground-ball rate will have a lot of success. ETA: Mid-2010

Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Houston
The 23-year-old reliever rose to double-A in his first pro season. Lo, a Taiwan native, is leading the AFL in strikeouts with six in four innings of work spread over two outings. He is also inducing a solid number of ground balls. Lo has a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a splitter, slider and changeup. He should be on your watch list and a sleeper candidate for drafting in keeper leagues. He has the potential to be a future closer or set-up man. ETA: Mid-2010

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
Stanton is swinging a hot bat despite ending the year with modest contact rates in double-A. The outfielder is currently hitting .533 (tied for third in the league) through four games. He has eight hits in 15 at-bats, including a homer. He’s struck out six times and has stolen three bases in as many attempts. If Stanton can improve his base running to the point where he can provide 10-15 steals a season, it will increase his fantasy value. ETA: Mid-2011

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati
Heisey just won’t stop improving. The Cincinnati Reds’ outfield prospect is tied with Stanton in batting average through 15 at-bats. He also has four extra base hits, two walks and a stolen base. Heisey could join fellow youngsters Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce in the Reds 2010 opening day outfield. ETA: Early 2010

Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle
The second-overall pick in the ’09 draft, like Strasburg, is making his pro debut in the AFL. Ackley has five hits in 10 at-bats (.500) with one double. He has also stolen a base and has yet to strike out. ETA: Early 2011

Struggling: Some of the big names that are scuffling early on, include: Chris Parmelee (.000 in 10 at-bats), Brandon Allen (.118), Matt Dominguez (.154), Jason Castro (.167), Yonder Alonso (.167) and Buster Posey (.167).

Remember “Scott Kazmir, Power Pitcher?” The diminutive lefty, stolen from the New York Mets in an infamous July 2004 deal for Victor Zambrano, established himself as one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the majors.

Sure, his control left something to be desired. But many sins can be forgiven when a southpaw in his early twenties boasts low-to-mid-90’s velocity with a strikeout rate nearing ten batters per nine frames (see Kershaw, Clayton).

After posting FIP’s of 3.76, 3.36 and 3.45 between 2005 and 2007, Kazmir appeared to take a step back in 2008. Sidelined with an elbow injury until early May, the 6-foot lefty wasn’t the same hurler we had become accustomed to.

His K rate remained high (9.81). But, his walk rate increased and his groundball rate plummeted from the low-40’s to just 31 percent. Throwing his heater three-quarters of the time and nearly scrapping his slider, Kazmir coughed up 1.36 homers per nine innings. His FIP was a mild 4.37.

In 2009, Kazmir has cut his walk rate to 3.67 per nine innings (4.14 in 2008). However, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Scott has registered just 7.15 K/9, a far cry from his career mark of 9.31 K/9.

Kazmir’s fastball (coming in at a career-low 91.1 MPH) hasn’t been the same plus this season. His heater was worth +0.55, +0.54 and +0.85 runs per 100 pitches from 2006-2008, but the pitch has been exactly average in 2009 (0.0 per 100 pitches). Kazmir has mixed in his slider more often (21.1%, compared to 9.6% in 2008), but it has been nothing special at -0.29 runs per 100 tosses. Only his 79 MPH changeup has been above-average, though just slightly (+0.09).

The 25 year-old’s diminished stuff is highlighted by his contact rates. On pitches within the strike zone, opposing batters have made contact 86.4% of the time. That’s the highest rate of Kazmir’s career, and comfortably above his career 84 percent mark.

However, the biggest change, by far, is Kazmir’s rate of contact on pitches outside of the zone. When he was whiffing nearly 10 hitters per nine innings, Kazmir posted O-Contact rates well below the major league average. This year, hitters aren’t getting fooled at all:

Kazmir’s O-Contact Rates, 2005-2009:

2005

Kazmir: 49.2
MLB Avg: 51.8

2006

Kazmir: 42.8
MLB Avg: 57.4

2007

Kazmir: 49.5
MLB Avg: 60.8

2008

Kazmir: 58.5
MLB Avg: 61.7

2009

Kazmir: 70.5
MLB Avg: 61.8

When Kazmir tosses a pitch off the plate in hopes of getting a whiff, hitters are making a ton of contact. His swinging strike percentage, mostly in the 11-12% range during his career, is just slightly over 8 percent in 2009 ( right around the MLB average of 7.8% for starters).

Want another indication that Kazmir is struggling to put batters away? Take his performance with two strikes on the batter. Baseball-Reference offers a stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average (100 is average, less than 100 is above-average for the pitcher, greater than 100 is below-average for the hurler). Kazmir’s sOPS+ with two strikes is 114 in 2009 (14 percent worse than the league average). His sOPS+ with two strikes was 84 in 2005, 85 in 2006, 69 in 2007 and 82 in 2008.

Kazmir has kept the fly balls as well, with a 33.8 GB%. He allowed nearly a homer per nine innings in ’09 (0.98 HR/9), despite a HR/FB rate well below the league average (7.3%). His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB percentage) is an ugly 5.06.

Scott is signed through 2011, with a club option for the 2012 campaign. He’ll make a total of $20M over the 2010 and 2011 seasons, with a $13.5M option for 2012.

If he rebounds, he will be well worth the cash. But Kazmir has been an average starter for two years running. If he’s a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher, then he’s basically being paid what he’s worth. That would mean that Rays made out splendidly in Augusts’ swap with the Angels, parting with a declining starter being paid a market-value salary while picking up three decent prospects in Alexander Torres, Matt Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez.

Fantasy owners should approach Kazmir cautiously heading into 2010. He’s not the same dominant starter these days.

Here is a team that I picked during mock draft season on March 2nd over at Mock Draft Central. I had the third pick overall in a 12-team mixed league 5×5 draft.

David Wright
Carl Crawford
CC Sabathia
Joe Mauer
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
James Shields
Mariano Rivrea
Torii Hunter
Andre Ethier
Jose Valverde
Derek Lowe
Conor Jackson
David DeJesus
Adrian Beltre
Ted Lilly
Placido Polanco
Fred Lewis
Gil Meche
Edgar Renteria
Carlos Guillen
Brandon Inge
Jason Bartlett

At the time, the projected standings at MDC loved this team. It was judged the first-place team with 94 points, a healthy 21 points above the second-place squad. The category breakdowns were:

AVG – 12
HR – 1
RBI – 3
SB – 11
R – 11
W – 12
SV – 9
K – 12
WHIP – 11
ERA – 12

This would have been a pretty decent team in reality, too. Two top 10 hitters (Crawford and Mauer) supported by three top 20 pitchers (Haren, Rivera, Sabathia) and three great late picks (Lilly, Polanco, Bartlett).

It was far from a perfect draft, with fantasy killers Renteria, Lewis, Guillen and Meche. But I believe with proper oversight during the year, this team would likely be a money finisher and a first-place finish would not have been out of the question.

While I went into this mock draft trying to build a stronger pitching squad than I usually do, I did not consciously punt power. And what looked like a poor HR team on paper was no doubt worse in reality, with the down year in homers by Wright and injuries to Hunter, Beltre and even Jackson sapping what little power this team possessed.

To me, this squad begs the question: Can a successful fantasy team punt HR, and by extension RBIs?

On paper this team had 56 pitching points, which is pretty close to what this “strategy” would need to be successful. And even if you ace the pitching categories, it could still fall flat if the non-power categories did not also average double-digits in points.

It is certainly not a tack I would recommend, especially with the third overall pick. All of the top pitchers need to come through, and one has to draft at least one closer, and probably two, in the top half of the draft.

But, as a fantasy player who always favors power, this team was an eye-opener.

At an age when most young hurlers are hopping a Greyhound bus from Inland Empire to Rancho Cucamonga, Clayton Kershaw is starting pivotal playoff games for a Dodgers club seeking its first World Series title since, well, Clayton was born.

The fifth inning of Kershaw’s NLCS game one start highlighted that he is still in the nascent stages of his career. The 6-3 power lefty did walk 4.8 batters per nine innings during the regular season, with a 55.6 first-pitch strike percentage (58.2% MLB average).

Yet despite those occasional bumpy moments, Kershaw has proven capable of quashing opposing lineups. He punched out 9.74 hitters per nine frames, the 7th-highest rate among starters tossing 150+ innings.

Kershaw was extremely tough to hit on pitches within the zone, with an 83.3 Z-Contact% that ranked 6th among starters (the MLB average is 87.8%). And when batters were fortunate enough to make contact, they often popped the ball up, with a 13.5 infield/fly ball percentage (7th among starters).

Most fans know Kershaw for two things: searing fastball velocity and a slow curveball so dastardly, Vin Scully dubbed it Public Enemy Number One.

To be sure, both of those pitches are electric. Kershaw’s run values are a little inflated due to a very low HR/FB rate (4.1%)- some balls that probably should have left yard stayed in, boosting those linear values. But still, his 94 MPH gas was worth +1.48 runs per 100 pitches (third best in baseball). That 73 MPH yellow hammer was similarly effective, with a +1.54 mark. Clayton would rather not talk about his seldom-used changeup, though (-1.78).

But did you know that, since June, Kershaw has integrated yet another quality breaking pitch into his arsenal? Take a look at his pitch usage by month:

April

Fastball (FB) 79%, Curveball (CB) 15%, Changeup (CH) 6%

May

FB 73%, CB 20%, CH 7%

June

FB 72%, Slider (SL) 8%, CB 15%, CH 5%

July

FB 69%, SL 10%, CB 18%, CH 3%

August

FB 67%, SL 11%, CB 20%, CH 2%

September/October

FB 72%, SL 16%, CB 11%, CH 1%

Gradually, Kershaw has added more 81 MPH sliders into the mix. The pitch is fascinating, in terms of how it moves in relation to his world famous curveball. Looking at Clayton’s Pitch F/X data, we see that his new toy breaks away from lefties (in to righties) an average of 4.8 inches. Kershaw’s curveball has similar horizontal movement, breaking away from southpaws 4.1 inches. That curve, of course, has plenty of vertical “drop”, falling 6.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin.

Kershaw’s slider creates an interesting dynamic for hitters. They see a big, bending breaker coming toward the plate, but which is it? As an example of how difficult finding that answer might be, here are Kershaw’s release and movement charts from his 10/3 start against the Rockies (his last regular-season start):

Release Point:

Movement:

In this start, Kershaw’s release gave away nothing to the opposition. And, you can see how much the slider and curve mirror each other in terms of horizontal break. Looking at this another way, here’s Clayton’s flight path chart for October, courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool:

This is a bird’s-eye view of Kershaw’s pitches as they head toward home plate. The flight path of the slider and the curve overlap. Same release point. Same flight path. The poor batter probably won’t know what’s coming until it’s too late.

Overall, Kershaw’s slider was worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches during the regular season. And, as Somers’ amazing tool shows, the pitch has become an even bigger part of Clayton’s arsenal in the playoffs. Kershaw has gone to the slider 27 percent of the time in the NLDS and NLCS, throwing it for a strike almost 65 percent of the time.

I guess the only question left is, what will Vin Scully call this vicious breaking ball?

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the New York Yankees squad that finished first in the American League East division with a record of 103-59. The perennial powerhouse is currently facing the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Championship Series. As a team, the Yankees posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 12.82, which was first overall in the Major Leagues. The last team to come close to posting a similar WPA for the year was the ’05 Red Sox (12.21).

The Good: Robinson Cano, 2B
Second baseman Aaron Hill got a lot of attention in Toronto for his offensive season, but Cano’s wasn’t too shabby, either. Cano reached the 200-hit and plateau for the first time in his career, while hitting .320/.352/.520 with 25 homers. The soon-to-be 27-year-old infielder also hit 48 doubles, which suggests their is more power to come. Although his walk rate remains low at 4.5 BB%, Cano reduced his strikeout rate for the third straight year, from 13.8 to 10.9 to 9.9%. Overall, he was third in the Majors in wOBA (.370) amongst second basemen, behind Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist (.408) and Philadelphia’s Chase Utley (.402).

It seems clear that Cano’s hiccup in ’08 was more fluke than anything else. He remains an elite fantasy option at second base. Cano topped 100 runs for the first time in his career, and had 85 RBI – a total that could increase as he moves into a run-producing role now that he’s matured as a hitter. It’s also encouraging that he feasted on just about everything thrown at him save for the cutter, which gave him significant trouble (-4.91 wCT/C). Cano could top 30 homers as he enters his prime in 2010.

The Bad: Joba Chamberlain, RHP
There isn’t much that goes wrong on a team that compiles such an impressive WPA or 100+ win season. However, Chamberlain’s year can be viewed as a disappointment, as the youngster failed to improve and/or live up to lofty expectations. The right-hander did not have a terrible season but his 4.82 FIP and walk rate of 4.35 BB/9 both headed in the wrong direction. He struggled with his fastball in 2009. It went from a rating of 0.79 wFB/C in ’08 to -1.26 in ’09. His slider was still effective at 1.29 wSL/C. His lack of a consistent third pitch (curve or changeup) hurt him while pitching out of the rotation.

The good news is that Chamberlain is still a young pitcher and this was his first full season in the starting rotation, so ups-and-downs should have been expected. Fantasy owners can look at this as an opportunity to buy low on Chamberlain, who still has good stuff and youth is on his side. He also plays for a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to pile up wins. The slider will result in a good number of strikeouts if he can regain control of the heater – making it less likely that hitters will be able to lay off the breaking ball.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Boston Red Sox club that finished second overall in the American League East division with a record of 95-67. The organization claimed the Wild Card title but was eliminated in the American League Division Series. As a team, the Red Sox posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 4.01, seventh overall in the Majors and third in the AL.

The Good: Jon Lester, LHP
A lot of people felt that Lester peaked in his first full season in the Majors in 2008. A lot of people were wrong. The lefty, at the age of 25, became one of the top hurlers in baseball. He allowed 186 hits in 203.1 innings while striking out 225 batters (9.96 K/9). Lester also posted a nice walk rate at 2.83 BB/9. His fastball velocity increased 1.5 mph over 2008 but it took a step back value wise from 0.82 to 0.25 wFB/C. However, each one of his secondary pitches (cutter, curve, change) improved. Lester was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in 2009, up from 5.1 in 2008.

What’s important for fantasy owners to acknowledge is that he’s proven to be durable – especially considering that he’s coming back from cancer. All his statistics also point to a legitimate improvement in numerous areas, which limits the likelihood of a fluke season. Lester finished fifth in the Majors in strikeouts and he plays on a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to be awarded wins.

The Bad: Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP
Matsuzaka looked like a stud after his first MLB campaign in 2007; He then won 18 games with just three losses and he posted a strikeout rate of 8.27 K/9 in his sophomore year. There were some red flags, though, such as the walk rate of 5.05 BB/9 and the significant ERA/FIP gap. Even so, Matsuzaka was worth 3.3 wins above replacement in ’08 and fans expected more in ’09. No one expected him to be worth just half a win above replacement, and no one expected Matsuzaka to make just 12 starts. Unfortunately, he was also extremely homer prone (1.52 HR/9), he allowed a lot of line drives (23%) and all of his pitches decreased in effectiveness.

Matsuzaka will enter the 2010 season with a wait-and-see label. The wild-card has a chance to be a dominating pitcher again if he can harness the command of his fastball and slider. His health will also play a huge part in his potential success. At just 29 years of age, Matsuzaka has the potential to provide innings, strikeouts and wins. You will have to accept a certain number of walks and homers, though.

Last November, the Colorado Rockies shipped franchise cornerstone Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s for lefty starter Greg Smith, reliever Huston Street and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

Smith (sidelined for most of the 2009 season with shoulder problems) was more of a throw-in, a back-of-the-rotation option whose peripherals were uninspiring. Street was certainly a stalwart in the ‘pen this year, with a 2.93 FIP. But the big prize in the deal was Gonzalez. Ultimately, the lefty-hitting Venezuelan would determine whether the deal worked out in Colorado’s favor.

Shortly after the swap, I took a gander at CarGo’s minor league track record and early scuffles in Oakland. The former D-Backs prospect possessed the power-speed combo to be a major component in two blockbuster deals (he was also involved in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal). Yet, he rarely worked the count, and he did benefit from cozy hitting environs in Arizona’s farm system. I came to the following conclusion:

“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”

One year later, Gonzalez appears to have taken steps toward becoming that championship-caliber player. The obvious caveat here is Coors Field. Humidor or not, the park inflates offense like no other venue in the majors. But even accounting for the Rocky Mountain assist, Gonzalez posted +9.8 Batting Runs in 2009, despite not getting a call-up until June and not really getting everyday AB’s until late in the year.

Opening the season at AAA Colorado Springs, Gonzalez punished the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA. Colorado Springs is also a hitter’s paradise, but Gonzalez beat the seams off the ball for a .292 ISO. Perhaps more importantly, he displayed a more reserved approach at the plate. Gonzalez drew a walk in 10.3% of his PA, while punching out 16.7%.

In Colorado, CarGo did a decent job of mending his hack-tastic ways. Gonzalez walked 9.2 percent of the time, increasing his P/PA seen from 3.4 in 2008 to 3.7 in 2009.

The 24 year-old didn’t suddenly morph into some Helton-like Zen master of plate discipline, but he made progress. Gonzalez jumped at 32.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone with the A’s in ’08, but lowered that mark to 30.6 percent with the Rockies (25.1% MLB average).

His first-pitch strike percentage (the rate at which the batter puts the ball in play on the first pitch or gets behind in the count 0-and-1) fell from 60.8% in 2008 to 58% this past year, right around the big league average. When Carlos took a cut at a pitch within the zone, he connected more often. His Z-Contact% rose from 86.7% with the A’s to 89.7% with the Rockies (87.8% MLB average).

With better strike-zone judgment and the best hitting environment in baseball at his disposal, Gonzalez batted .284/.353/.525 in 317 PA, with a .241 ISO. Happily, CarGo also added 16 steals in 20 attempts. The base thievery wasn’t really expected, given his poor 65% success rate in the minors.

It’s too early to say that Gonzalez is on the path to stardom, but he made strides toward becoming a more complete player in 2009. We knew that he could sting the baseball, but it was imperative that he lay off more junk pitches off the plate. He started to do that this year. With a vastly improved bat and stellar defense (+8 UZR/150), Gonzalez was worth 2.3 Wins Above Replacement in part-time duty. In parting with one organizational building block, the Rockies may have acquired another.

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Baltimore Orioles club that finished fifth overall in the American League East division with a record of 64-98. As a team, the Orioles posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -9.93, third worst in the Majors.

The Good: Adam Jones, CF
The Baltimore organization has one of the best young outfields in all of baseball with the emergence of Jones and Nolan Reimold in 2009. Further growth from Felix Pie could make things even more interesting as the group joins Nick Markakis. Jones’ WAR actually dropped in ’09 from 2.2 to 1.9 but that was due to a regression in the field. Offensively, with better patience at the plate, Jones’ line improved to .277/.335/.457 with an ISO of .180. He should see even more doubles and homers as he increases his fly-ball rate from 28.1%. What this means for 2010 is that Jones has a very good chance of becoming a 20 HR/15 SB player who will also post a respectable batting average and score some runs.

The Bad: The Pitching Staff
It’s not really fair to single out any one pitcher; most of the hurlers on the staff were disappointing. Collectively, Baltimore pitchers allowed the most hits in the American League, while posting the worst FIP and highest home-run rate in the Majors. Young pitchers Chris Tillman (2.08 HR/9) and David Hernandez (2.40) struggled mightily with the long ball. They also posted FIPs above 6.00. Veteran hurler Jeremy Guthrie posted a homer rate of 1.54 HR/9. Former closer Chris Ray made his return from Tommy John surgery but he posted a walk rate of 4.78 BB/9 and posted a 2.01 WHIP. Japanese import Koji Uehara looked good early but then he got hurt (torn flexor tendon). He’ll enter 2010 at the age of 35.

The good news is that Tillman and Hernandez both experienced common growing pains for young pitchers. Tillman, in particular, looks like a future stud; he just needs better command. Brian Matusz is another promising hurler who made eight starts and will enter 2010 as an early favorite for Rookie of the Year in the American League (Tillman’s eligibility has expired). Both should be keeper-league targets. Neither Ray nor Uehara enter ’10 as fantasy favorites, although Uehara has some value if he’s healthy.

The 2009 post-season surely ended on a sour note for the St. Louis Cardinals, swept in the NLDS by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

On a happier note, the Cardinals boast an enviable collection of top-shelf talent. There’s that Pujols fellow, of course. But Yadier Molina’s decent bat for the catcher position led a 3.4 WAR season. SS Brendan Ryan might not cause opposing pitchers to lose much sleep, but his slick glove work led to a 3.2 WAR campaign (does anyone else think that he looks like Super Mario with that red cap and bushy mustache?) On the bump, Adam Wainwright (5.7 WAR) and Chris Carpenter (5.6 WAR) form a one-two punch few can match.

Though he’s still rough around the edges, CF Colby Rasmus has the talent to join that group. Playing most of the year as a 22 year-old, the rangy rookie compiled 2.3 WAR.

The 28th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft, Rasmus was part of an absurdly deep class of prep outfielders that year. Other first-round fly catchers from 2005 include Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce.

Rasmus raced through the system, reaching the AA Texas League by age 20 in 2007. The 6-2 lefty hit plenty of homers for Springfield, belting 29 big-flys and posting a monstrous .275/.381/.551 line in 556 PA. Colby showed off his broad skill set, working the count (12.9 BB%), hitting for power (.275 ISO), swiping bags efficiently (18 SB, 3 CS) and earning rave reviews for his work in center field.

In its 2008 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America named Rasmus as a consensus top-10 prospect. Praising Rasmus’ “smooth, balanced swing that packs plenty of punch”, BA claimed he had the “head-turning ability of a potential big league all-star.”

Colby entered the 2008 season with considerable fanfare, but he stumbled for the first time in his career at AAA Memphis. Rasmus got off to a sluggish start at the plate, and just when he was starting to make pitchers pay, he sprained his left knee in July on a check swing.

Overall, St. Louis’ prized prospect batted .251/.346/.396 in 387 PA. Rasmus remained disciplined, drawing a walk in 12.9% of his PA again, while still punching out a little more than 20 percent of the time. His extra-base pop suffered, however, with a .145 ISO. Colby stayed smart on the base paths, with 15 SB in 18 attempts. Baseball America remained a big fan, saying Rasmus “should be the first impact position player signed and developed by St. Louis since Albert Pujols.”

In 2009, Rasmus played his way into an everyday role with the N.L. Central Division champs. He hit .251/.307/.407 in 520 PA. Colby popped 16 homers with a .156 ISO, while playing an outstanding center field (+10.9 UZR/150).

Rasmus wasn’t especially patient at the plate, drawing walks at a 7.1 percent clip while whiffing an even 20 percent. Not bashful in terms of taking a cut at a pitch within the strike zone, Colby posted a 73.5 Z-Swing% (65.9% MLB average). That was one of the 20 highest rates among qualified batters. But, he wasn’t some unrestrained hacker, either, as he swung at 25.9 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (slightly above the 25.1% MLB average).

Colby’s biggest problem during his rookie year was those pesky southpaw pitchers. Fellow left-handers owned him to the tune of a .160/.219/.255 triple-slash in 115 PA.

Baseball-Reference offers a helpful stat called sOPS+, which compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. a 100 sOPS+ means the player was average in the split category. A figure above 100 indicates he was better than the league average, while a number under 100 indicates a below-average performance. Rasmus’ sOPS+ versus LHP was 35.

Of course, we’re dealing with an awfully small sample of PA against lefties. No bold conclusions should be taken from one year’s worth of platoon splits. Rasmus generally held his own against lefties in the minors, with a career .275/.371/.455 line vs. LHP.

Perhaps the most peculiar aspect of Colby’s rookie season was his stealing just three bases all year long. Though he never racked up massive SB totals, Rasmus holds a career 81.3 percent success rate in the minors. And, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Base Runs stat (definition here), Rasmus was the top base runner on the team and one of the 20 best in the majors. Let ’em loose, guys!

Rasmus has some kinks to work out in terms of working the count and hanging tough against lefty pitching, but he has the tools to become one of the most valuable properties in the game. Those in keeper leagues should have a white-knuckle grip on this guy, and he’s a strong breakout candidate for 2010.

In January of 2008, the Chicago White Sox picked up Nick Swisher from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for a prospect bounty including OF Ryan Sweeney, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and LHP Gio Gonzalez.

The Pale Hose figured they had acquired a valuable, young, cost-controlled player. After all, Swisher was just 27 heading into the ’08 season, having averaged nearly three Wins Above Replacement per season during his three big league campaigns. He had turned in back-to-back quality years at the dish, with wOBA’s of .368 in 2006 and .361 in 2007.

In May of 2007, Swish signed a 5-year, $26.75M pact with the A’s which also included a $10.25M club option for the 2012 season. The former Ohio State star looked to be a mainstay on the South Side, given the team-friendly nature of that deal.

Well, that was the plan, anyway. Just ten months later, the White Sox booted Swisher out of town. The switch-hitter posted an exasperating .325 wOBA in Chicago, losing playing time in August and September to Dewayne Wise(!) In November of ’08, the Sox unloaded Swisher on the Yankees (along with RHP Kanekoa Teixeira) for an underwhelming package of RHP’s Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez as well as utility man Wilson Betemit.

So, what exactly changed for Swisher between his Oakland and Chicago days? Not much. Last December, former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted:

“In other words, Swisher’s 2008 season, once adjusted for the bad luck he incurred, was exactly in line with his previous seasons. There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.”

Very little changed in Swisher’s plate discipline or batted ball profile between 2007 and 2008:

2007

15.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, 17.5 LD%, 0.81 GB/FB, 9.5 IF/FB%, 16.6 O-Swing%, 85.8 Z-Contact%

2008

14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%, 20.9 LD%, 0.78 GB/FB, 11.1 IF/FB%, 18.9 O-Swing%, 86.2 Z-Contact%

There are slight changes, but certainly nothing earth-shattering. Yet, Swisher’s BABIP plummeted from .308 in ’07 to .251 in ’08. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (based off research done by Chris Dutton and Bendix), Nick was terribly unlucky.

Swisher’s rate of HR’s, K’s SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders suggested that his BABIP should have been closer to the .300 range in 2008. That would obviously change his line dramatically. Even if those extra hits were all singles, Swisher’s triple-slash would rise from a mild .219/.332/.410 to .268/.381/.459.

With the Bronx Bombers in 2009, Swisher mashed to the tune of .249/.371/.498 in 607 PA, good for a career-best .375 wOBA. His BABIP did not return to the .300 range (he finished at .277), but that BABIP rebound and a boost in power (.249 ISO) made Swisher one of the best off-season pickups.

His patience and pop, coupled with average D, produced a 3.7 WAR season. Swisher is never going to have a shiny batting average, but his stout secondary skills (walks and power) make him an underrated contributor.

It’s not very often that one can say this about a Yankees acquisition, but swindling Swisher from the White Sox last fall was a thrifty move. New York bought low on a quality player, parting only with a future 5th starter, a decent relief prospect and a reserve infielder with platoon issues and no defensive home.

Swish made just $5.3M this year, while providing $16.5M worth of value. He’s under contract for a total of $15.75M over the 2010-2011 seasons. Even if he regresses back to the three WAR range, he would give $27M worth of production over that time period.

If you’re keeping score at home, that would mean Swisher offers the Yankees about $22.5M worth of surplus value from 2009-2011 (what his production is worth on the free agent market based on the $4.5M/WAR standard, minus his actual salary). And, he also has that reasonable option for the 2012 season.

During an off-season in which the Yankees spent more than the gross domestic product of Tonga (no, seriously), the club also added Swisher for a song. This is a great example of why it’s vital to not just take a cursory glance at a player’s numbers and come to a definite conclusion about his talents. Fantasy owners who did their homework picked up an offensive cog without coughing up a high draft pick.