Archive for July, 2009

Thank Heavens for Evans?

Nick Evans is now a major league baseball player, and he’s getting some at-bats in left field and in a first-base platoon with Daniel Murphy. The flailing Mets seem to be looking to catch lightning in a bottle with Evans, but the fan base is clamoring for a more impressive solution.

Could they possibly ’solve’ their temporary 1B problems with a Murphy/Evans platoon? Murphy’s career minor league split OPS against lefties is not great at .725. Well, at least Nick Evans can handle lefties, as his his .914 OPS against lefties in 421 minor league at-bats can attest. Put together the two half-players and you could actually have a decent stop-gap first baseman for the time being.

But should that keep the team from trading Evans should a better solution come along? His minor league progression has been a halting one. He started poorly and didn’t crack an .800 OPS in his first 500 plate appearances.

In fact, he didn’t have a strong full year until he hit St. Lucie in his fourth pro year. In 2007, he hit .286/.374/.476 and burst onto the Mets prospect scene. It does matter, though, that the park factor for St. Lucie that year was a 1.15 for home runs, and that the park has played as a hitter’s haven. Plus, he still had those three full years of poor play behind him.

When he hit AA Binghamton in 2008 and followed up with a .311/.365/.561 line, though, the Mets might have gotten a little giddy. They might have been forgiven for thinking they had Carlos Delgado’s future replacement in their hands. They probably felt that he would play his way into some major league playing time after a little seasoning in AAA.

Ooops. The old, that is to say young, Evans showed up in Buffalo, and his .093/.218/.227 start was too nasty for the brass. The team demoted him back to the friendly confines of Binghamton, where he put up a mediocre .276/.350/.467 slash line in 117 at-bats. Then, all of a sudden, it didn’t matter what he was actually doing, since the major league team needed a warm body. As of now he’s playing well in the major leagues… in very few at-bats.

There will be some that will say that he’s a keeper. Murphy is done, they’ll say, and thank heavens for Evans! That’s a bit short-sighted. There’s not actually that much to like about Evans: as he’s advanced in the minor league system, his strikeout rate has gotten worse, and his walk rate (mediocre at around 8%) has stayed the same. His .462 slugging percentage in the minors is nothing to write home about, and both of his career years in the minors came in parks that played as hitters parks. Neither was his .768 minor league OPS versus righties.

This is not to rain on the parade. He might be a really good fourth outfielder and backup first baseman. If he can improve his split against righties, he may even rise to about an average level as a first baseman. In a platoon situation, he can rake against lefties and can help in the short-term, so he has value on the bench.

He’s no savior, and the odds are still against him being a regular. If Omar Minaya can improve the team by shipping Evans out, he should do it.


Zimmermann: Best Rookie Pitcher?

While no rookie starting pitcher has exploded onto the scene a-la-Dontrelle Willis in 2003, MLB fans have been treated to a steady stream of premium young arms getting their first extended looks in the majors. The Cahill’s, Anderson’s, Porcello’s, Price’s and Hanson’s have all gotten plenty of attention. However, another extremely gifted youngster has largely gone under the radar in our nation’s capital. The Washington Nationals may be plagued by a laundry list of issues, but Jordan Zimmermann ’s starts are turning into must-see TV (well, MLB.TV) for this fan.

Since making his debut April 20th, the Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point product has posted a 3.55 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP). Zimmermann has punched out an excellent 8.91 batters per nine innings, while limiting the free passes with 2.55 BB/9. Among starters tossing at least 60 innings, the 23 year-old righty has the 23rd-best FIP. His 3.45 K/BB ratio ranks 18th, just ahead of Florida’s Josh Johnson. Yet, Zimmermann’s ERA sits at 4.65. What’s the deal?

Unfortunately, the 6-2, 200 pounder is backed by the worst defensive squad in baseball. The Nationals rank last in team Ultimate Zone Rating and 29th in Defensive Efficiency (the percentage of balls put in play that are converted into outs). While a strikeout pitcher like Zimmermann isn’t as harmed by lousy D (he doesn’t put the ball in play as often), his BABIP sits at .331.

In terms of the things Zimmermann has more direct control over, he has been superb. Opposing hitters have hacked at pitches outside of the strike zone 28.4% of the time (24.9 MLB average). Zimmermann is inducing contact on the first pitch or getting ahead of the batter 0-and-1 often. His First-Pitch Strike% sits at 66.3, well above the 58% MLB average. His rate of first-pitch strikes places 7th among starters tossing at least 60 frames.

Zimmermann also comes equipped with a power pitcher’s arsenal. He utilizes a 93 MPH fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curveball and a mid-80’s changeup. While the fastball (-0.53 runs/100 pitches) and curve (-0.43) have been ordinary, Zimmermann’s slider (+1.65) and changeup (+2.08) have been wicked.

You wouldn’t know it from a cursory look at his numbers, but Jordan Zimmermann has pitched like an ace during his rookie season. He’s striking out nearly a batter per inning, limiting the walks (his 53.4 Zone% is about 4 percent above the MLB average) and possesses stuff that compares favorably to any other rookie in the majors. Time will tell who becomes the most successful out of 2009’s batch of rookies, but Zimmermann is certainly deserving of a place in the conversation.