Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

A live-armed, 28 year-old lefty who has already been traded four times in his pro career, de la Rosa has intrigued (and frustrated) many big league franchises. However, the Monterrey native finally seems to have found a home in Colorado. de la Rosa’s 4.78 ERA looks just passable, but bear in mind he’s toiling in the best offensive environment in the majors, in front of some generally lackluster defenders (Jorge’s BABIP is .319, and the Rockies rank 24th in team UZR).

In 111 innings this year, de la Rosa has whiffed 9.08 batters per nine frames, with a career-low 3.81 BB/9. That’s not razor-sharp control, but it’s a considerable step above his career 4.68 BB/9. de la Rosa’s fastball continues to be nothing special (-0.84 Runs/100 pitches), but his secondary stuff is deadly. His mid-80’s slider has a +2.04 run value, with Jorge’s changeup coming in at +2.34. de la Rosa’s FIP sits at 3.70 for the season.

Brett Cecil, Blue Jays

The Jays have seemingly filtered through a couple dozen rotation options this season as the club deals with a rash of injuries to its hurlers, but Cecil may be the best of them all. A closer at the University of Maryland, Cecil was converted to the rotation on the basis of his sturdy 6-3 frame and four-pitch arsenal (91 MPH fastball, 85 MPH slider, 80 MPH curve, and 82 MPH change).

The former Terp tore through the minors, striking out over eight-and-a-half hitters per nine innings while posting a groundball rate in excess of 60 percent. Cecil’s control could use some sharpening (he walked about four per nine innings at AAA and has issued 3.66 BB/9 in the bigs), but he has had little problem fooling hitters at the highest level (7.47 K/9). Cecil has a 4.36 XFIP (based on K’s, BB, and a league average HR/FB rate) in 59 innings for Toronto in 2009. He’s basically a league-average starter right now, with considerable room for growth.

Travis Hafner, Indians

Pronk Smash! For better or worse, the Indians owe Hafner roughly $52 million from 2009-2012, meaning he would have to produce somewhere around 11.5 Wins Above Replacement over that period to be “worth” the cash (an average of 2.8-2.9 WAR a year). That’s a mighty tall order for a 32 year-old DH with a recent history of shoulder ailments, but Hafner has produced a .399 wOBA when able to take to the batter’s box in 2009. After seeing his ISO dip to a paltry .125 during an injury-riddled 2008, Hafner has bumped that number up to a healthy .259. Pronk is looking like an anchor on Cleveland’s book keeping, but there’s still some fantasy value to be had here.

Gordon Beckham, White Sox

Someone needs to inform Mr. Beckham that this whole…Major League Baseball thing? It’s not supposed to be this easy. The 2008 first-rounder out of Georgia zoomed to the South Side after just 259 minor league plate appearances (.322/.375/.519), and he has performed admirably as a 22 year-old rookie. Beckham holds a .289/.368/.447 line in 175 PA, good for a .352 wOBA. Gordon has displayed very good control of the zone, walking 10.6% of the time while punching out just 15.1%. Beckham has plenty of value in keeper leagues, but you could certainly do worse in the here and now.

Joe Blanton, Phillies

For the majority of his major league career, Blanton had been an Average Joe. His combination of moderate quality (4.17 FIP) and quantity (he made between 32 and 34 starts from 2005-2008) made Blanton a pretty valuable commodity (averaging 3.45 WAR over ’05 to ’08), but the shape of his production has been different in 2009. The former Kentucky Wildcat has a career K rate of 5.52 per nine innings, but he has punched out 7.76 per nine this season while walking 2.59. Blanton had some early-season issues with the home run (his HR/FB% is still bloated at 14.5), but his XFIP (3.91) is a career-best.

How is he garnering the extra punch outs? It’s difficult to say, really. He’s not garnering a ton of outside swings (22.1 O-Swing%, 21.4% career average), his contact rate (84.3%) is about four percent above the MLB average and a near match for his career mark (84.8 percent). Joe’s called and swinging strike percentages are actually down from 2008. About the only discernable trend I can find is a gradual increase in the percentage of fouls Blanton has gotten off of his stuff. What say you, Phillies fans?

Stock Down

Rick Porcello, Tigers

There’s much to like about Porcello in the long term. He won’t turn 21 until December. He possesses a 91 MPH sinker that really bores in on the hands of righty batters, and has helped him generate grounders at a 56.1% clip. He also totes a mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup that are in the development stage, as well as a low-80’s slider that the Tigers basically had him scrap.

In the here and now, though, he still understandably has some things to work on. Porcello has located 47.9 percent of his offerings within the strike zone (below the 49.3% MLB average), with a First-Pitch Strike Percentage (55.5%) that’s also under the big league norm (58.1%). The 6-5 New Jersey prep product has dished out plenty of souvenirs (1.57 HR/9, 19.1 HR/FB%). Given his groundball tendencies, that doesn’t portend to be an issue in the long run. But it could be the product of command that seems to come and go. Porcello is nearly at the 100-inning mark, and the Tigers will likely tread cautiously when it comes to his workload.

Erik Bedard, Mariners

Sigh. I would imagine that by this juncture, Mariners fans get kinda twitchy just at the mention of Bedard’s name. Six years of team control over Adam Jones and Tillman, plus some decent work by closer George Sherrill was the high, high price of acquiring the Baltimore ace. So far, Bedard has tallied just 3 WAR for the M’s. The 30 year-old free-agent-to-be has turned in a typical season in 2009: tantalizing pitching (3.51 FIP in 83 IP) interrupted by a seeming avalanche of physical problems. The latest, shoulder inflammation, sends Bedard to the DL yet again. Now the Mariners likely can’t shop his services, and Bedard won’t bring back a draft pick this winter, either.

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

Coming up with the Dodgers, the junior LaRoche was a walks and doubles machine. He posted a tasty .310/.400/.538 line during his minor league career, which caught Pittsburgh’s eye enough to make him the principal player acquired in last year’s Bay-Manny swap. While few expected LaRoche to be a brute, over-the-fence threat in the majors, his lack of thump is becoming a bit disconcerting. He’s doing a nice job of controlling the zone in 2009 (8.7 BB%, 16K%), but Andy’s work has been bereft of pop. LaRoche’s ISO sits at just .117 for the season. To put that into context, the weak-hitting fellow to LaRoche’s left (Jack Wilson) has a .121 ISO this year. His fielding has improved (+4.3 UZR/150 at 3B), which will give him a little more leeway. But from an offensive standpoint, LaRoche has been pretty boring.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton missed part of the season following surgery to repair a partially torn abdominal muscle, and he still looks rusty at the dish. The 28-year-old lefty batter has hit just .228/.279/.402 in 201 PA, with a .299 wOBA. Josh has gradually become more of a free swinger since his career re-birth in Cincy a few years back:

2007: 26.9 O-Swing%, 56.7 F-Strike%
2008: 34.7 O-Swing%, 60 F-Strike%
2009: 36.3 O-Swing%, 63.5 F-Strike%

(the MLB averages are 25% and 58.1%, respectively)

Hamilton has walked just 6.6% of the time, with a 27.2% K rate. He’s hammering fastballs (+0.89 Runs/100 Pitches), but secondary stuff is giving him the heebie-jeebies (-1.32 for the slider, -1.79 for the curve, -3.33 for the change).

Johnny Cueto, Reds

That Cueto has regressed shouldn’t come as a total and complete shock:

April: 2.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP
May: 2.72 ERA, 4.15 FIP
June: 3.60 ERA, 4.79 FIP

..But Johnny has turned in a pretty rough July (7.61 ERA, 5.97 FIP) in which his 20008 tater problems have re-appeared with a vengeance (1.90 HR/9 this month). He’s certainly been hit-unlucky (.393 BABIP), but Cueto has also issued nearly 5 walks per nine innings.

The Jeff Francoeur hype machine never ceases to amaze me. The new meme is that Francoeur is producing because he is freed of the pressure of playing in front of the hometown crowds in Atlanta.

Now, make no mistake, Francoeur is off to a good start and has produced since being acquired by the Mets just prior to the All-Star break. In 12 games for New York, Francoeur has posted a .327-2-14-2-0 fantasy line.

But let us set aside that the only two runs he has scored have come on home runs (that probably has more to do with the Mets’ offense than it does with his zero walks) and instead focus on the two categories that Francoeur is doing well: AVG and RBIs.

Francoeur’s .327 AVG comes with a .333 BABIP, which is 30 points above his lifetime mark in the category. He made his reputation in the first 70 games of his career, when Francoeur posted a .341 BABIP. In 2007, when he drove in 105 runs and batted .293, Francoeur had a .342 mark. To have a good AVG for fantasy, Francoeur needs a very high BABIP.

While he has shown the capability to post those high marks, we have to counter that with the .286 mark in 2006, the .277 mark last year and the .281 mark in 82 games with Atlanta this season.

Meanwhile, 14 RBIs in 12 games is a nice streak. But while some might point to this as a reflection of Francoeur’s ability to come through with men on base, more rational people will see that it is a hot streak coinciding with very fortunate RBI opportunities.

In just over half of his plate appearances with the Mets, Francoeur has batted with runners on base (27-52). If we look at the three hitters the Mets hoped would make up the heart of their order, we see this is pretty typical. David Wright (219-421), Carlos Beltran (142-280) and Carlos Delgado (59-112) all had between 51-53% of their PA with runners on base.

Where we see the difference is with the breakdowns of where the runners were on base. The following numbers are from Baseball Prospectus, with OBI% defined as “Others Batted In Percentage — the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter’s plate appearances. OBI is distinguished from RBI (runs batted in) in that OBI does not credit the batter for his own scoring on a home run. In otherwords OBI = RBI – HR”

The contrast between Francoeur and Wright is striking, with 60 percent of Francoeur’s runners on base being in scoring position. Francoeur being hot in this stretch has led to a 30 percent rate of driving others in, a mark that would easily lead the majors. Currently, Bobby Abreu has the top overall mark with a 22.3 percent mark. In 2008, David DeJesus led the way by driving in 21.5 percent of other runners.

By contrast, this season with the Braves Francoeur drove in a little over 12 percent of other runners in, as only 49 percent of runners on base were in scoring position. Below are Francoeur’s RBI numbers in previous years with the Braves.

Prior to last season, we see Francoeur being pretty stable in his OBI%, with the two higher percentages in 2005 and 2007 corresponding to the years where he had higher BABIPs.

Since joining the Mets, Francoeur is swinging at more pitches in the strike zone (88%-80.3%) and making more contact on those swings (92.4%-88.1%). But even in our small Mets sample, we see he is still swinging at 35.5 percent of pitches outside the zone and is still having trouble with harder pitches.

Pitch Type Values shows him with nearly identical poor rates versus both fastballs and sliders per 100 pitches while with the Mets as what he did earlier with the Braves. Apparently, he has done most of his damage in New York versus curve balls and changeups. This should be a pretty simple thing for advance scouts to identify and for pitchers to implement versus Francoeur going forward.

Francoeur has been an asset for the Mets since the team acquired him. But do not think he can be the same thing for your fantasy team. Neither the 60 percent of baserunners in scoring position nor the 30 percent of other runners driven in nor the .333 BABIP is likely to last for the rest of the season.

The Seattle Mariners organization continued its aggressive promotion of prospects this past weekend when it promoted outfielder Michael Saunders from triple-A. The move adds yet another solid defensive player to the outfield mix, which already includes Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ryan Langerhans (Endy Chavez is on the 60-day DL).

A native Canadian, Saunders was an 11th-round selection out of a British Columbia high school in 2004, but he spent one season at a Florida community college before entering pro ball in ’05. His biggest strength as a defensive player is his strong arm, which could make him a solid right-fielder if his power develops as projected. He can play center field, as well, where his range is considered average.

At the plate, Saunders has shown a consistent ability to hit between .270 and .300. His power output has increased each of the past four seasons, with his ISO rising each year from .106 in 2006 to .234 in 2009. Saunders has seen his walk rate dip a bit in the past two seasons (down to 9.2 BB% in 2009), but he has trimmed almost 10% off of his strikeout rate this year.

Early on in his career, the left-handed hitter actually performed better against southpaws than right-handers, but that has changed since he started facing better pitching in double-A and triple-A. Saunders has struggled against lefties over the past two seasons, although he is not completely useless against them (.247/.312/.400 vs LHP compared to .344/.411/.620 vs RHP in ’09).

On the base paths, Saunders has started to slow down the running game as his body has filled out a bit. His stolen base totals have dropped from 29 in 2007 to 12 to just six in 2009. Saunders has always had average speed, but his instincts allowed him to steal 20-plus bases each season and he should still be good for five to 10 a year at the Major League level.

Overall, Saunders currently shows the potential to produce a 15 homer/15 stolen base season in a full season. In his prime, though, he should be able to top the 20-homer mark, but the stolen bases will decrease with age. His playing time could be affected by the fact that he is a left-handed batter, just like Ichiro, Langerhans, Chavez, and Ken Griffey Jr. Of the outfielders currently on the big-league roster, only Gutierrez swings from the right side.

Here is the latest update to Week 17 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

WSX – Buehrle
CUB – Dempster
MIL – Dillard
WSN – Balester

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CUB – Harden
BAL – Hill
MIL – Burns
KCR – Chen

Buehrle can be forgiven for wondering what a fellow has to do to get in a fantasy lineup. He is 11-3 and in his last start he pitched a perfect game. Yet at press time he was starting in only 78 percent of CBS Sports leagues, with 16 two-start pitchers this week having a higher percentage. For what it is worth, Buehrle’s FIP is 4.21 compared to a 3.28 ERA this season.

Dempster is slated to be activated this week in time for a Tuesday start against Houston. Dempster has been out with a broken toe. Prior to the injury, Dempster was struggling to match last year’s output, as he allowed more home runs and had a lower strand rate than a season ago. However, Dempster had been on a roll, with Quality Starts in six of his last seven outings before the injury.

Dillard returned to the rotation after spending all of last season as a reliever. He posted an impressive 10-4 mark in Triple-A but posted only a 3.36 K/9 ratio. A fastball-slider pitcher with little room for error, fantasy owners should not rush out to add him to their squad.

Balester can dial it up to the mid 90s with his fastball and he has a plus pitch with his curve. But he has had trouble parlaying that into success in his limited exposure to the majors. Balester was 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA in Triple-A this year and in his only start with the Nationals he gave up three runs (two earned) in three-plus innings.

While Scott Boras is negotiating on behalf of his newest client, Stephen Strasburg, the name Luke Hochevar probably won’t come up to often. So far, with a career 5.09 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, Hochevar is far from a model former first draft pick. His struggles are instead a warning sign for the Nationals and other teams being bullied into a big bonus.

So far, the Royal has seemingly lacked an out pitch despite all of his quality offerings. He has five pitches that he throws with regularity, and four that he throws more than 10% of the time. A 92 MPH fastball, an 83 MPH slider, a 77 MPH curveball, an 84 MPH changeup, and a 91 MPH two-seam fastball. And unless pitch f/x is mislabeling some pitches, he’s even added a sixth pitch, an 88 MPH cutter. With this kitchen sink approach, he’s been able to elicit a good amount of ground balls (51.8% career), but has not found the combination to punch them out (5.30 career K/9).

That was, until two starts ago. In the last two starts, Hochevar has silenced two potent offenses. And he’s done so with the strikeout. In his last 13.1 innings, amassed against Texas on July 25th and Tampa Bay on July 19, Hochevar has put up 22 strikeouts against zero walks. Extend the window to include his July 9th start against Boston, and he has 27 strikeouts and 1 walk in 19.1 innings.

Yes, the sample size is small. But is it possible that Hochevar has made some changes that will finally allow him to harness his entire arsenal and add the strikeout to his ground-ball inducing approach? There are notable differences in his approach over his last three starts.

One thing that is immediately obvious is that he’s going to the curveball more this year, and more in his recent starts. Overall, his curveball percentage is up to 13.6% from 9.1% last year, but if you look at the last three games, the effect is more pronounced. Against Boston and Texas, Hochevar went to his big curve ball over 20% of the time, almost double his usage of the pitch from last year.

Seen as his perhaps best pitch going in to the draft, the curveball has been inconsistent for him. He’s lost almost a full three inches of horizontal movement on it this year, but the movement has come and gone from start to start. The linear weights show the curveball being a negative for him this year, and on the other hand you can’t argue with his recent results. Against Boston, the curveball showed its best horizontal movement of the year, pushing the seven- and eight-inch horizontal movement that he showed in his first two seasons. If the curveball was merely dormant at the beginning of the year, kudos to the pitcher for persevering and throwing the pitch enough to recover the movement and craft himself a plus pitch.

Overall, his only positive pitch has been his slider, worth about 3.1 runs so far this year, and 13 in his short career so far. In his remarkable 13-strikeout, zero-walk performance against Texas this weekend, Hochevar used the slider almost 32% of the time. This brought his yearly percentage to 24.9%, easily a career high for Hochevar.

Looking at his usage chart for his career, one thing is clear. Hochevar is using his off-speed offerings much more often this year. With a fastball that hovers around neutral, this looks like a natural and beneficial progression for the young pitcher. Perhaps this is meaningful change that will allow the Royals to once again regain a rosy disposition to their high draft pick. Fantasy owners, at the very least, should take notice.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17

Jon Garland – Earlier in the year it was pretty easy with Garland. You simply benched him for his home starts and inserted him back in the lineup for his road outings. But Garland in his last five starts has a 2.73 ERA and two of those games have been at home and both were Quality Starts. A home start versus Philadelphia could be dicey, but that should be made up for in a road start in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the punchless Mets.

Tommy Hunter – After getting pounded in his major league debut last season, Hunter has had an impressive five outings for the Rangers in 2009. And yes, he has unquestionably been lucky so far, with a .256 BABIP and an 87 percent strand rate. But I like the 23-year old to maintain his good fortune for at least one more week with home starts against the Tigers and Mariners.

Jason Marquis – Usually I avoid recommending starting the top pitchers. But since not everyone has gotten the memo on Marquis, I figured I would mention him. Can anyone else remember a season where the NL leader in wins after the All-Star break might be available on the waiver wire in your league? Marquis is a free agent in 51.5 percent of ESPN leagues. He does have a blister problem but is scheduled this week for road starts at the Mets and at the Reds.

Joe Saunders – Through the first 15 games of the season, Saunders was living large and was cruising along with an 8-4 record and 3.66 ERA despite rotten peripherals, continuing his path from 2008. But in his last five outings Saunders has a 9.82 ERA and only some fine work by Angels hitters have kept his record at 0-2. Maybe it is a bad stretch or maybe it is regression finally catching up to him, but either way it is hard to put him in the lineup this week for two starts.

Randy Wolf – After undergoing a rough patch in June, Wolf has rebounded with five straight Quality Starts with 25 Ks in 31.2 innings in that stretch. His peripherals still suggest a pitcher benefiting from luck, but owners should role the dice with Wolf this week. He has two road starts, but has been a better pitcher away from Chavez Ravine. Wolf has a 4-2 record with a 2.90 ERA in road games this year, a full run lower than his home ERA.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Wainwright, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Burnett, Beckett, Carpenter, Oswalt, Billingsley, Zambrano, Weaver, Jurrjens, W. Rodriguez, Nolasco, Shields, Harden, Danks, Washburn, Romero, Arroyo, Pelfrey, Buchholz, Galarraga, Maholm, Zito, Correia, Bannister, Pavano, Moyer, O. Perez, Cahill, Perkins, Padilla, Suppan, H. Bailey, Mazzaro, Stammen, Geer, Hill, Burns, Berken, Chen.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Any early-season concerns about Rivera’s mortality are decidedly in the rearview mirror, as the Hammer of God has not given up a run since June 12th (a stretch of 14.2 innings). His K/BB ratio is an obscene 45/4 in 41.1 innings, and the run value on Rivera’s cutter (currently +2.29 per 100 pitches) climbs by the appearance. Mo’s XFIP (based on BB’s, K’s and a normalized HR/FB ratio) is 2.20. That’s the fourth straight season that his XFIP has decreased.

Joe Nathan, Twins

How good has Nathan been in 2009? The 2 runs he gave up in a blown save op vs. the Angels on July 23rd were the first tallies against him since May 15th. Joe has whiffed 10.8 batters per nine innings, while posting the lowest walk rate (1.88 BB/9) of his career. Nathan is generating his highest percentage of outside swings we have on record dating back to 2002 (32.7%), and all three of his pitches are decimating hitters. Whether he chucks a 94 MPH fastball (+3.25 runs/100), 88 MPH slider (+2.08) or 82 MPH curve (+2.62), the end result is the same: the batter ain’t getting on base.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Cliff Notes version of Kansas City’s second half: Royals lose a lot, Soria doesn’t pitch enough. K.C. blows several 8th-inning leads while leaving the club’s best ‘pen arm to flick sunflower seeds and drink Gatorade. In another example of why using your best reliever only when he can earn a “SV” next to his name is shoddy strategy, Soria has tossed 7 innings this month. Roman Colon, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay and Jamey Wright have all gotten more work in July. Huh? When Joakim has taken the mound, he has been his customary dominant self (1 R, 9 K, 0 walks).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

While under the weather (flu), Papelbon has turned in his finest month of the season. The 28 year-old has punched out 8 batters in 7 innings, with 1 walk and 1 run allowed. Uncharacteristically wild in the early going, Papelbon has pounded the zone as of late:

Zone%, by month:

April: 48.1%
May: 46%
June: 54.1%
July: 59%

Not coincidentally, Papelbon’s mid-90’s gas has been as its best in July (+4.97 Runs/100). It’s beginning to look like Boston’s stopper is back to his old dominant self.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks has turned in a bumpy July. In 6 innings, he has allowed 10 hits, 6 runs and 4 base on balls. His K/BB ratio (3.5) is still well ahead of last year’s pace (2.24), and there appears to be little chance of anyone overtaking Bobby as he works out the kinks in his delivery. Pale Hose skipper Ozzie Guillen, uh, made that pretty clear recently:

“Wow, what did this kid do to this town to make people treat him like that? He’s my closer, and if people don’t want him to be my closer, don’t come to the [bleeping] game.” (chicagotribune.com)

J.P. Howell, Rays

Apparently entrenched as Tampa’s closer, Howell will only climb this list in the weeks to come. J.P. tossed 13 scoreless frames in June, and has made 6 spotless appearances out of seven this month (a 3-run hiccup vs. the A’s on the 12th being the exception). Howell is an odd bird as a closer, but just because he doesn’t fit the fire-breathing archetype doesn’t mean he can’t wipe the floor with hitters. His oft-used curveball (+2.44 runs/100) and changeup (+3.67) have been superb, and that mid-80’s fastball is certainly holding its own (+1.16).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has given up runs and taken losses in back-to-back appearances (on the 19th and the 21st), but he otherwise has enjoyed another stellar month (12 K, 2 BB, 6 H in 10.1 IP). The rookie righty sports rates of 10.48 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9. His 68.4 percent contact rate is the 6th-lowest among all relievers (teammate Mike Wuertz, at a stunning 56.5%, leads all ‘pen arms).

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes hasn’t coughed up a run since May, a run of 16 innings in which he has K’d 17 and walked five. The first-year Angel has posted the lowest walk rate (2.78 BB/9) of his career, though I’m not entirely sure how, to be honest. He’s not generating a bunch of outside swings (24%, one percent below the MLB avg), his Zone% is down (47.8%, 52.1% career average) and so is his First-Pitch Strike % (53.8%, 56.4% career average).

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Activated from the DL before the All-Star break, Downs returns to the closer’s role with little competition. He has whiffed a career-best 9.49 per nine innings in 2009, relying heavily on opposing batters getting themselves out by expanding their strike zones (34.2 O-Swing%, nearly 12 percent above his career rate). Like Howell, Downs is another example of a guy getting power-pitcher’s results with movement and deception. Downs’ pitches don’t sizzle, but his 90 MPH fastball has a ton of tailing action (10.6 inches; the avg, lefty fastball has 6.4 inches of tail) and his 76 MPH curve features plenty of sweeping (7.5 inches) and dropping (7.3 inches) movement.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Believe it or not, Aardsma hasn’t actually exhibited bad control over the past two months. Since the beginning of June, the former Giant, White Sock, Cub and Red Sock has a 29/7 K/BB in 22 frames. His Zone% for the season is up to 49.7% (including 56 percent in July), which is slightly above the league average, and his BB/9 is back under five. Aardsma has typically walked the yard during the course of his career and his BABIP (.256) is on the low side. But as a flyball pitcher, behind great defenders, in a pitcher’s park, he’s in the perfect situation.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has turned in an adequate July, with 3 runs, 8 K’s and 2 walks in 7.1 innings. Saves have come few and far between for the also-ran Indians (Wood has 13 on the year), though the Texan is at least generating more outside swings of late. Wood has a paltry 20.7 Outside-Swing% for the year (over 10 percent below his 2008 rate), though that mark is up to 31.5% this month.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill went on a tear in June (11 IP, 1 R, 8/2 K/BB), but his July performance has been milder (7.2 IP, 4 R, 9/4 K/BB). The 32 year-old would appear to be a prime trade candidate for the O’s, who are still likely two years away from mounting any kind of serious threat to the beasts of the A.L. East. His walk rate (2.97 BB/9) is a career-low, and his 64 First-Pitch Strike% is the highest of his big league tenure.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on the DL yet again, this time with pneumonia)

With the thrice-D.L.’ed Francisco yet again unavailable, Wilson will pick up the save chances. The 28 year-old southpaw is still a little on the wild side (45.9 Zone%, compared to the 49.3 MLB average), but he has reigned in his walk rate from 2008’s unacceptable 5.24 to this year’s 3.77 mark by virtue of getting more swings outside of the zone. Wilson has also generated more grounders (56.3%, 49.3 in 2008). He’s not a great reliever, but there are certainly worse options out there.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney moves up into “In Control” status, due to a combination of good pitching and Zumaya’s shoulder going “boom” yet again. In 7 July innings, Fernando has allowed 1 run, with 8 K’s and 3 walks. With 4.28 BB/9 and just 47.5% of his pitches thrown within the zone, Rodney is still something of an adventure in the late innings.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Overall, Broxton has been downright Gagne-esque in 2009. He has whiffed fourteen and a half hitters per nine innings, has the fourth-best WPA (2.87) among relievers and shuts the door for the best team (by far) in the National League.

But not all is well in Mannywood. Unfortunately, Broxton is suffering from a big toe injury that manager Joe Torre feels will linger for the duration of the season. Big Jon had a rough couple of outings prior to the All-Star break (5 R, 5 H and 4 BB in 2 IP on the 5th and the 10th), and he walked two in his first post All-Star appearance. However, he has turned in three spotless appearances since, including saves vs. the Astros on the 19th and the Reds on the 20th.

Going forward, Broxton should still be plenty dominant. But his first-half reign of terror is not something we should expect over a long period of time from any reliever, bum toe or not.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell finally surrendered a home run this week, as Florida’s Chris Coghlan took him deep in a non-save situation on the 22nd. Heath hasn’t had the tidiest of months (4 R, 8 H in 5.2 IP), but he holds one of the top 10 WPA marks in the majors (2.49), with an increase in K/9 from 9.19 in 2008 to 10.53 in 2009 (a career-high). The uptick in punch outs seems to have come at the expense of some control: his walk rate is up to career-high 3.43 per nine frames (the 4th-straight year that it has increased). His percentage of pitches in the zone over that period has gone from 54.6% in ’06 to 47.7% this year (49.3% MLB average).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman collected a save against the Reds on the 16th and the Pirates on the 21st, giving him 22 on the year. Trevor has yet to be taken deep in 28.1 frames.

While he’s obviously been fortunate in that regard, the extreme flyball hurler (34.6 GB% since 2002) has generated grounders at an above-average 48.1% clip in 2009. Looking at Hoffman’s Pitch F/X data, his fastball and changeup have both shown two inches less vertical movement this season. Take a look at the vertical (Z) break on Hoffman’s fastball/changeup mix over the past three years:

2007:
Fastball 14.8 Z, Changeup 9.5 Z (30.6 GB%)

2008:
Fastball 14.6 Z, Changeup 8.8 Z (39 GB%)

2009:
Fastball 12.4 Z, Changeup 6.5 Z (48.1 GB%)

The relative difference in vertical break between the fastball and change remains about the same (a good thing), but he’s isn’t throwing quite as high in the zone.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

With the Mets plummeting into oblivion (look, Francoeur can’t bear to even watch anymore), save chances have been sparse in Queens (one since the All-Star break). Want an example of why ERA isn’t such a good measure for relievers? K-Rod’s has dropped three years in a row (2.81 in 2007, 2.24 in 2008 and 1.81 in 2009), yet his K/BB has dipped from 2.65 to 1.80 over that time, with a jump in FIP (2.70 in ’07, 3.22 in ’08, 3.58 this year). A low BABIP (.236) has veiled the signs of decay, but the 2009 version of Rodriguez hasn’t been especially good.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a rough June, Qualls appears to be back on track in July. In 9 frames, he has given up 2 runs while issuing just 1 walk. Qualls isn’t missing as many bats this year (7.49 K/9 in ’09, 8.67 in ’08), but he has been extremely stingy with the free passes (1.13 BB/9, the 4th straight year that he has lowered his walk rate).

The 30 year-old is inducing more contact these days: his Z-Contact% (pct. of contact within the zone) has increased by five percent since 2007, with a 10 percent increase in total contact. He’s still burning worms (59.8 GB%) and has posted a 2.82 FIP, but his ERA (3.63) is inflated due to some shoddy D behind him. The D-Backs (27th in Defensive Efficiency) have allowed a .325 BABIP behind Qualls. Groundballs do have a higher BABIP than flyballs (.231 to .221), but that’s an excessive figure nonetheless.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street is on a serious roll. He has allowed 1 run all month, without walking a batter in 7.1 frames. The erstwhile Athletic holds an exceptionally strong 4.70 K/BB ratio for the season, with a mid-80’s slider that is carving up the competition (+4.74 runs/100 pitches). After posting a -0.01 WPA last year, Huston has a 1.87 mark in 2009.

In Control

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has also allowed just a single tally in July, with 9 K’s and one walk in 7.2 innings. Papa Grande’s year has been interrupted by a calf injury and he has had some issues with the long ball (15.4 HR/FB%), but he has maintained a near 11 K/9 pace while paring down his walk rate for the 4th straight season (from 4.01 BB/9 in 2006 to 2.25 this year). Interestingly, Valverde hasn’t made some concerted effort to put more pitches over the plate: his Zone% has gone from 59.2% in ’06 to 53% in 2009. Rather, his Outside-Swing% has soared:

2006: 22.4%
2007: 24.4%
2008: 33%
2009: 36.4%

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Has Soriano wrested the full-time closer’s gig from Gonzalez? It would appear that way. After all, Rafael has taken the last 8 save chances for the Braves. While the merits of the switch to more rigid bullpen management can be debated, Soriano’s set role is certainly a good thing for fantasy owners. The immensely-talented-but-fragile righty has decimated hitters for 12.02 K/9 this season, with the second-best WPA (2.97) in the bigs. His 93 MPH cheese (+2.4 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.53) have been near-unhittable this year.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The All-Star break came at an opportune time for Capps, who was throttled for 5 runs, 6 hits and two walks in a 0.1 inning debacle vs. the Phillies on the 11th. Since the respite, he has tossed three scoreless innings (one save) while whiffing 5 hitters. Don’t be totally surprised to see Capps’ name floated in trade talk over the next week; Pittsburgh’s front office is not shy about making bold moves if they feel it betters the franchise long-term. Shipping out a good-not-great reliever with a recent history of shoulder problems wouldn’t be a total shocker.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Co-Co hasn’t seen much work lately, with two appearances (1 save) since the All-Star break. The 34 year-old has experienced a rather startling drop in his K rate, from a career-high 12.22 K/9 in 2007 to 7.58 this year. A .250 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate (2.9%) make his ERA (1.66) look pristine, but there are some warning signs here. Opponents are putting the bat on the ball more often (64.5% contact rate in ’07, 77.2% in ’09) and aren’t chasing nearly as many pitches out of the zone (22.9% in 2009, two percent below the MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin converted a 1.1 inning save vs. Arizona on the 19th, but blew an opportunity against the Astros on the 22nd (4 H, 2R in 0.2 IP). The Cards closer certainly hasn’t been poor this year: his K rate (7 per nine) is a career-high and his K/BB in 3.5. But his .230 BABIP, near 93% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (5.7%) suggest he’ll resume being a pretty good reliever stretched as a relief ace.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Lidge continues to make both Phillies Phans and fantasy owners tear their hair out. Last year’s WPA leader has endured an explosive July, with 5 runs and 6 walks coughed up in 7.2 innings. Hobbled by a knee injury, Lidge has lost all semblance of control (5.91 BB/9). His fastball has arguably been the worst in baseball (-2.92 runs/100 pitches), and his trademark slider has been merely average (-0.02). How much leash will the first-place Phillies give him?

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has worked four clean innings since the break, with one save converted vs. Pittsburgh on the 19th. Paradoxically, Wilson’s K rate has remained unchanged (9.67 in ’08, 9.76 in ’09) despite an increase in zone contact rate (81.8% to 86%), and his walk rate has dropped (from 4.04 to 3.32) despite a drop in pitches within the strike zone (54.3% to 49%).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Is it time to move Gregg up a peg? In 11.1 July frames, he has given up 3 runs with a 9/3 K/BB, and it’s not as though Marmol (with a staggering 8.55 BB/9) has done much to inspire confidence. He’s still something short of a ninth-inning asset, but Gregg’s WPA is up to 1.34.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins appear to have settled on Nunez as the 9th-inning option, with Meyer (outperforming Nunez in FIP and WPA) assuming set-up duties. Leo converted save opportunities vs. San Diego on the 20th and 21st. He has often walked the tight rope in 2009, posting a first-pitch strike percentage (55.9%) below the major league average (58.1). However, Nunez has been plenty hard to hit, with batters making contact with just 75.4% of pitches thrown within the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg).

Mike MacDougal/Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett, Nationals

Interim manager Jim Riggelman recently announced that the Nationals will use a “closer-by-committee” approach, which is a diplomatic way of saying that no one really deserves the high-leverage job.

MacDougal, Beimel and Burnett are all in play for the rarest of baseball events: a Nationals save chance. MacDougal (11/22 K/BB ratio…seriously) is throwing mid-90’s fastball after mid 90-‘s fastball with little clue as to where the ball is headed. Beimel, by contrast, has used his mid-80’s “heater”, good curve and decent changeup to post a 4.14 FIP that marks him as more decent middle-man than relief ace. Burnett, like Beimel, is a former Pirates port sider who relies on a quality breaking ball (+1.22 runs/100 pitches with the slider). Burnett’s 2.66 ERA might catch your eye, but his .206 BABIP takes some of the shine off; his FIP is 4.25.

Overall, the situation in Washington is a fantasy wasteland.

Entering the 2009 season, Martin Prado wasn’t really in the immediate plans of the Atlanta Braves. The Venezuelan-born Prado made his living by subbing at any position where a need arose: second, third, first, outfield, shortstop…you name a spot, and Martin has manned it at some point.

His lumber, however, was considered fringy. Prado posted a career .300/.353/.393 line in the minors, which suggested that he could swat some singles but little else. But if one wished to be optimistic, there were signs that his overall numbers underestimated his offensive ability. As a 23 year-old at AAA Richmond in 2007, Prado produced a .316/.374/.420 triple-slash in 443 PA. A batting average-driven line to be sure, but Martin managed the strike zone well (8.6 BB%, 10.4 K%).

Prado followed up that strong year at Richmond with a .320/.377/.461 (.367 wOBA) season with the Braves in 2008. In 254 PA, he drew walks at an 8.4% clip and whiffed just 12.7%. His Isolated Power (.140) surpassed any figure he had posted in the minors. Prado didn’t venture out the zone very much (18.8 Outside Swing%; the MLB average hovers around 25 percent) and he made contact with 93.7 percent of pitches within the strike zone (87.7% MLB average).

In 2009, Martin was largely supposed to spot for Chipper Jones when the venerated switch-hitter needed a day or two off to mend. Instead, Prado has seen nearly equal amounts of time at first base, second base and the hot corner. The 25 year-old has mostly manned the keystone over the past month, as Kelly Johnson (wrist) hit the DL.

With a chance to play on a regular basis, Prado has compiled a .377 wOBA, with a .323/.384/.486 line in 248 PA. His rate of free passes drawn is up a bit (9.1 BB%), with a decrease in his already-low K rate (10.9 K%). Prado has put the bat on the ball even more frequently on pitches in the zone (95.8%, one of the 10-highest rates in the majors), and his ISO is up to .164.

Is Prado this good of a hitter? In all likelihood, he’s performing at the uppermost bounds of his capabilities right now. His BABIP has been in excess of .350 over the 2008-2009 seasons, which seems likely to regress at least somewhat. Using the Expected BABIP Calculator from The Hardball Times (discussed in more detail in this post on Placido Polanco), Prado “should” have posted a BABIP in the neighborhood of .325 over the ’08 and ’09 seasons. That would mean that Prado is more of a .300-type hitter than the .320+ cyborg we have seen as of late.

The rest-of-season ZiPS projections voice a similar opinion, calling for a .309/.365/.432 line from here until the end of the 2009 campaign. Prado has a strong grasp of the strike zone and produces scores of contact, making him a viable fantasy option. But, it would be wise to expect the sky-high average to dip to some extent, with fewer extra-base hits (.123 projected ISO for the rest of ’09).

Johnson is nearing a return to action, and it will be interesting to see how the Braves dish out playing time. From an offensive standpoint, Prado’s .350 rest-of season wOBA bests Johnson’s .340.

In three seasons at second, Johnson (a converted outfielder) has posted a -6.8 UZR/150, though he was on the positive side in ’09 prior to the injury. As a rover, Prado doesn’t have an especially large sample of innings at any position, though his early work at second looks Kent-esque. That could just be the product of working with limited data, though his minor league numbers aren’t really sterling, either. If he continues to be penciled into the lineup, Prado’s multi-position act deserves a look in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Robert Manuel, Marc Rzepczynski, Aaron Poreda, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, and Mat Latos.

Drew Stubbs: The Reds’ outfield is not instilling much fear in opponents as of late. Willy Taveras and Laynce Nix each have OBPs below .300. With Jay Bruce’s 18 homers on the DL, Nix leads the outfielders with eight dingers on the year. Thankfully, the organization keeps churning out outfield prospects. Stubbs is absolutely dripping with potential, athleticism and tools. Although he’ll likely always struggle to hit for a high average due to his contact issues (25.4 K%), the left-handed hitter could still manage to bat .250-.270. He has just two homers on the year, but Stubbs has the potential to hit 10-15 with his fair share of walks in the Majors when he matures as a hitter. Currently, he has 36 steals in 42 attempts and plays a plus centerfield.

Matt LaPorta: Chris Gimenez‘ versatility (He can catch) gives him a defensive edge over LaPorta, who is the much better offensive player and is currently wasting his time at triple-A. With 1B/DH Ryan Garko entering his expensive years in arbitration, he’ll likely be gone sooner rather than later, so Cleveland should just ship him out now to make room for LaPorta, who is a better hitter and comes much cheaper. LaPorta struggled in an early call-up to the club, but he received just 42 at-bats. For a club that’s going nowhere, it makes sense to give a 24-year-old – with the potential to hit 30 homers – a chance to play. He’s currently hitting .314/.390/537 with 11 homers in 255 triple-A at-bats.

Brandon Allen: Speaking of teams going nowhere, Arizona is in a similar situation, which is one of the reasons why the club jettisoned veteran pinch hitter and first baseman Tony Clark at the All-Star break. The club currently has Chad Tracy playing first base, but his offense is below-average for his position and he cannot stay healthy. Back-up first baseman Josh Whitesell is a career minor-leaguer who has constantly been overlooked, despite solid numbers. Whitesell will have to take advantage of his narrow window of opportunity, because Allen is waiting in the wings. Acquired earlier this season from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, Allen is a big-bodied slugger who has developed quickly over the past two seasons after originally being drafted out of high school in 2004. Last season, he hit 29 homers between high-A and double-A. This season, he’s got just 13 between double-A and triple-A, but he’s showing signs of becoming a better hitter due to a higher average (that’s not dependent on a high BABIP) and lower strikeout rates compared to his career norm. Since the trade to Arizona, he’s been on fire with a .364 average and five homers in 10 games.

Danny Valencia: To say Minnesota could use some stability at third base would be an understatement and Valencia just keeps getting better and better. With Joe Crede struggling with the bat as well as his health, and the likes of Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert offering little in the way of offense, the club needs to consider promoting Valencia as the team fights for a playoff spot. The 24-year-old third base prospect began the year in double-A before a promotion to triple-A where he’s currently hitting .362/.371/.616 with five homers in 24 games. Although his patience at the plate comes and goes (and when has Minnesota ever cared about OBP?), he won’t hurt the club in the strikeout category, he has average power, and he has the ability to hit .280-.290. Defensively, he’s solid with a plus arm.

Madison Bumgarner: Like quite a few other teams around Major League Baseball, the Giants club is fighting for a playoff spot and it appears that its best hope is the wild card. So the big question must be posed: Does it make sense to promote a 19-year-old pitching prospect if he’s dominating the competition in the minors and looks like a better option than one or two of the pitchers on your big-league rotation? It’s probably better to air on the side of caution, but this is the playoffs that we’re talking about… and Bumgarner currently has a career ERA of 1.50 in two minor league seasons. He’s also collectively allowed 176 hits in 228.1 innings with just 45 walks and 235 punch-outs. The left-handed pitcher is a rare find.

Bud Norris: The Astros club is also (surprisingly) in the playoff hunt but you have to be worried about how long the trio of Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Russ Ortiz can hold it together. If at least one of the veteran arms falters, the organization needs to think about turning to top pitching prospect Norris. The 24-year-old right-hander has allowed just 98 hits in 114 innings of work this season with a walk rate of 3.95 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.53 K/9. Even if they don’t need him now, the club might be better off by getting him some MLB experience – even if it’s in the bullpen – just in case the club needs an emergency starter late in the year or in the playoffs.