For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

How dominant has Broxton been this season? Let’s count the ways:

– His FIP checks in at a subatomic 1.27
– His strikeout rate (14.19 K/9) would be pretty good if cut in half
– Broxton’s slider deserves its own “Chuck Norris facts” page: the wicked high-80’s offering has been worth +5.1 runs per 100 pitches.

Yeah, he’s pretty good.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath actually looked mortal this week, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs while blowing a save against the Rockies on May 30th. His K/BB ratio still comes in at 26/6 for the year, with a 1.17 WPA. Interestingly, Bell’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has decreased every season since 2005, from 60.9% that year to just 46.2% in 2009 (49% MLB average). However, his Outside Swing% is also at an all-time high of 30.2% this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Frankie gave up 1 run in 3 innings of work this week, punching out 6 batters in the process but only getting one save. Rodriguez’s fastball (+0.76 runs per 100 pitches), curve (+1.31) and change (+3.89) have all been effective in his first campaign in Queens.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls took some time off this week due to forearm tightness, missing four games. The club isn’t said to be deeply concerned. Qualls notched a save against the Braves on May 28th before the forearm started barking.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman enters “Death Grip” real estate, as he has been better in Milwaukee than just about anyone could have hoped for. With two clean saves this week, the longtime Padre now has a 15-inning scoreless streak going. The wacky .175 BABIP and 0.0 HR/FB% just won’t continue, but it’s hard to argue with a 14/1 K/BB ratio. Hoffman’s modest mid-80’s heater (+4.35 runs per 100 pitches), slider (+3.47) and changeup (+6.47) are firing on all cylinders.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

After surrendering a stunning 13 runs in 10 innings from May 5th to the 24th, Lidge is beginning to make amends with five scoreless appearances and five saves since. The Notre Dame product has a 5/1 K/BB ratio during that stretch, and his velocity is trending up (the right-hand portion of the graph is 2009):

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made only one appearance this week, with a save against the Cardinals on June 1st. After issuing 4.86 BB/9 last season, Cincy’s closer has walked 2.86 per nine innings in 2009. Perhaps that has something to do with his pitch selection: after tossing a slider 37.3% of the time in 2008 and featuring his fastball just 52%, Cordero has reduced his slider usage to 21.6% in 2009 with a big bump in heaters (68.4%).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps received just about the best news possible after nearly having his arm torn off by a Geovany Soto line drive: he just had a really nasty bruise. Instead of hitting the DL, the 255 pound right-hander collected 3 saves (one against Houston on May 30th and two against the Mets on June 1st and 2nd). The saves against New York came without a walk, good news considering his prior control issues. Capps has located 53.1% of his pitches within the strike zone. That’s still 4 percent above the league average, but it’s also a far cry from his 59.5% career average.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin worked 3.1 innings this week, with two saves, one walk and a K. Considering that his FIP (3.73) is leaps and bounds above his ERA (1.29), Franklin seems like a good candidate to regress. On the positive side, his 80.7% contact rate is just around the major league average, and is his lowest mark we have on record going back to 2002.

Huston Street, Rockies

Huston had an up-and-down week. He worked a scoreless inning vs. the Dodgers on May 27th, then picked up a save against the Padres on the 29th. Unfortunately, he gave up a run the following night against San Diego, then blew a save against the Astros last night while issuing 2 walks. However, Street has done a nice job for the most part (24/7 K/BB ratio in 22.1 IP), and it’s not as though the Rockies are rife with possible replacements.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson is back on his feet following a nasty run of appearances in the middle of May (7 runs from May 14th to the 21st). He has 4 scoreless innings to his name since then, with 3 saves and zero walks allowed. Opponents have typically chased very few of Wilson’s pitches out of the strike zone (18.7% career), but he got them to offer at 36.8% of such pitches this past week.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins closed the door versus the Bucs on May 31st and the Rockies on June 1st, then tossed another scoreless frame against Colorado the following night. His 2.75 K/BB ratio is his best mark since 2004, and his hard slider/cutter has been worth +3.22 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Hawkins has increased the usage of the pitch, from 19.7% in ’09 to 27.1% this year.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

With 12.52 K/9, Gonzalez is mowing down hitters at the highest rate of his career. He still gives Bobby Cox heartburn some nights, though, with 4.3 BB/9. Soriano, meanwhile, has also used his fastball/slider combo to good effect (12.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9). Per FIP (Soriano 2.14, Gonzo 3.07) and WPA (Soriano 1.69, Gonzalez 0.51), Rafael has been the better option.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom remains on precarious ground, with a ghastly 22/17 K/BB ratio in 21.2 IP. His blistering mid-to-high 90’s fastball was worth +1.08 runs per 100 pitches last year, but that number has dipped all the way to -1.15 in 2009. Lindstrom’s loss of the strike zone is a continuation of a troubling three-year trend:

2007: 2.82 BB/9, 54.0 Zone% (% of pitches in strike zone)
2008: 4.08 BB/9, 51.5 Zone%
2009: 7.06 BB/9, 48.3 Zone%

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Is there a less relevant fantasy position than Nationals closer? It’s sort of like the baseball version of the Indianapolis Colts punter; someone is ostensibly paid to do the job, we just never see him. With a -64 run differential and a 14-36 record, there just aren’t that many chances. The recently activated MacDougal could also work his way into this jumble of relievers, which holds an abysmal -5.67 team WPA (last in the majors).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg was smacked around yet again last night, coughing up 2 runs and blowing a save against the Braves. Like Lindstrom, Gregg just continues to see his control erode:

2006: 2.41 BB/9, 53.1 Zone%
2007: 4.29 BB/9, 50.4 Zone%
2008: 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 Zone%
2009: 5.24 BB/9, 43.7 Zone%

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo was two-for-two in save chances this past week, slamming the door on Cleveland on May 29th and June 1st. Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at an absurd 26/1, and he’s climbing up the WPA leader board (15th at the moment, despite an inflated .313 BABIP and 27.8 HR/FB rate).

Joakim Soria, Royals

The Mexicutioner returns, and not a moment too soon for Kansas City fans, whose faces turned royal blue while watching Juan Cruz back himself into a corner on a nightly basis. Soria’s shoulder bears close monitoring, but he returns to a line that includes a 2.24 FIP and 10 K’s in 8.2 innings.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan was a busy man this week, logging three saves against three different opponents (Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland). He struck out 4 batters in 3.1 frames, and he hasn’t surrendered a run since May 15th ( a stretch of six innings). His K/BB ratio is back up to a sterling 4.40, and he’s tossing a first pitch strike 66.3% of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Uncharacteristically wild to begin the year, Papelbon allayed some panic-stricken Sox faithful with 4 K’s and no free passes in 2 innings this past week. If Papelbon can hit his spots more consistently, his career-low 46.1 opponent Swing% will increase.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks picked up two saves against the scuffling Royals on May 30th and 31st. He’s throwing his fastball nearly 2 MPH faster than last season (95.3 MPH, compared to 93.8 in ’08), but with less effectiveness (-0.66 runs per 100 pitches; +1.55 in 2008). Conversely, his slider (+3.59 per 100 pitches) and curveball (+4.19) are giving batters fits.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco collected a save on May 29th, before suffering his first loss of the season on the 31st while finally giving up a run. Frank’s scoreless appearances streak reached 17 before the A’s got to him, and his K/BB ratio sits at 19/5 for the year. His mid-80’s splitter has been a devastating pitch, with a run value of +4.67 per 100 pitches for the season.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a W against the Rays on May 28th and a save versus the Yankees on the 31st. Woody was wild early on, but he has issued only 1 walk in his last 4 innings. That’s not some world-beating stretch, but it certainly bests his 5-walk, two inning streak from May 17th to the 20th. Wood’s WPA sits at -0.33 for the season.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs blew a save versus the O’s on May 27th, but he recovered to notch two against Boston on the 29th and 30th. He’s done an excellent job in getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate, with a 33.3 Outside-Swing% (24.5% MLB average). That helps explain how Downs has a microscopic walk rate (0.78 BB/9) despite locating just 45.1% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney hasn’t allowed a run to cross home plate on his watch since May 10th, a streak of 9 innings in which he has racked up 4 saves while issuing just two walks. Unable to hit the broad side of a barn in 2008 (6.69 BB/9), Rodney has issued 2.57 BB/9 in ’09 while generating groundballs at a 54.2% clip. His fastball, long thrown with plus velocity but little effectiveness (-0.45 runs per 100 pitches during his career), has been worth +2.09 runs per 100 tosses this season. His nasty changeup/splitter checks in at +2.89 per 100 pitches to boot.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was generally effective during the month of May (converting 8 saves), but he ended on a sour note with a 3-run, 3-hit blown save against Seattle on the 30th. He’s whiffing 9.16 hitters per nine with 2.89 BB/9, but a .373 BABIP has put a damper on Fuentes’ numbers. There are some concerning signs, though: his 80.7% contact rate is over 5 percent higher than any other season we have dating back to 2002, and his sweeping curveball has been lacking. The pitch was worth +6.27 runs per 100 pitches in 2007, -1.79 in 2008 and -2.70 this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Streaking Sherrill: Baltimore’s stopper is sad to see the calendar flip to June, as he went on a May tear. The 32 year-old southpaw allowed just a single run in 11 frames, and he’s currently on an 11-inning scoreless streak with a perfect frame against the Mariners on June 1st. Typically wild (career 4.43 BB/9, 5.57 BB/9 in 2008), Sherrill has given up 2.91 walks per nine innings in 2009.

Watch Your Back

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Ziegler (3.25 FIP, 66.2 GB%) hasn’t been bad, but Bailey has been a revelation out of the ‘pen for the A’s in 2009. Armed with low-90’s heat, a high-80’s cutter that saws off bats and a mid-70’s curve, Bailey has punched out 38 hitters in 32.1 innings. Batters have made contact with just 66.2% of his pitches, which ranks 5th among relievers. It’s not entirely clear who will get the 9th inning call on any given night, but owners have to be rooting for Bailey, given his strikeout potential.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

The law of averages caught up with Aardsma on May 31st, as he was rocked for 3 runs in 0.2 innings against the Angels, dishing out four walks in the process. His ERA (2.13) might look impressive, but Aardsma is walking a disturbing 6.39 batters per nine innings. It’s near impossible to remain effective while putting one’s self in jams so frequently. So far, a .236 BABIP and the highest strand rate of his career (85.4%) have allowed for the Houdini act, but Aardsma could be in for a rough go of it in the months to come.

Morrow, meanwhile, isn’t exactly buttressing his case to get the closer’s role back. He made just one appearance this week, coughing up 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk to the A’s on May 30th. Morrow’s K/BB ratio sits at an ugly 18/14 in 15.1 IP.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

It’s tough to get a read on Tampa’s situation. Howell (2.30 FIP) has certainly been the best of the bunch, but Rays manager Joe Maddon would likely rather keep the former starter available for multi-inning appearances. Izzy is having an awkward introduction in Tampa, with 5 walks in 5.2 innings. Cormier has a 2.19 ERA, but that figure is at least somewhat the product of a .243 BABIP and a very low homer rate. Your guess is as good as mine here.

We’re two months into the 2009 baseball season. Now is the ideal time to take a look at your fantasy squad and think about changes. Me? I’m just dropping off some links. All 30 teams are in action today.

AOL Fanhouse’s Knox Bardeen provides closer news from around the league, including an in-depth look at the Cubs’ Kevin Gregg.

Collin Hager of FantasyPros911.com talks fantasy outfielders.

Rotoworld’s Mark St. Amant is “man-crushing” on Torii Hunter this week. The Angels outfielder is batting .308/.393/.582 with 12 home runs and 42 RBI in 182 at-bats. Even crazier? The numbers suggest he’ll keep up the pace. His strikeout percentage (17.6%) is down and his walk rate (12.1%) is up from previous years.

Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com gives his seal of approval to Rays outfielder Matt Joyce. Playing time will be an issue, but Joyce is a true masher. As Saponara writes, “If he can stick and get 275+ at bats for the rest of the season, 15 home runs seems like a lock.”

Grey over at Razzball.com updates some of the more fantasy-relevant injury situations.

Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority.com examines Oakland’s Josh Outman, who ranks 7th in the American League with a 3.06 ERA.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today has an excellent piece on baseball’s last Stephen Strasburg, Ben McDonald. As the hype continues to grow around Strasburg, it’s important we keep in mind that a lot of top prospects never pan out.

If you ever come across something you think others should see, or simply have a question or comment, shoot me an e-mail.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Jermaine Dye and trade Johnny Cueto last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

John Maine – Current owners may look at his .252 BABIP and 4.41 FIP and see a sell candidate. But Maine was terrible the first three games of the season and has quietly been a very effective pitcher since then. In his last seven games, Maine is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA. Linear Weights shows his fastball, which was such a good pitch in both 2006 and 2007, has rebounded into positive numbers despite a slight decrease in velocity.

Jorge Cantu – After a hot start to the season, Cantu really struggled in May and now his updated ZiPS shows him falling fall short of last year’s HR and R totals. A hand injury that he refused to come out of the lineup for hurt his numbers, especially early in the month. But Cantu has hit a solid .286 over his last 14 games and he could be a great pickup if his power numbers rebound as the hand improves.

Jhonny Peralta – Here is another player whose numbers have been dragged down due to injury. After a strong first two weeks of the season, Peralta injured his left elbow. The injury sapped his power and helped his average fall below .200 in early May. But in his last 21 games, Peralta is batting .347, albeit still with no power. The most attractive thing about Peralta as a fantasy player is his 20-HR power. RoS ZiPS sees Peralta hitting 11 HR the rest of the season.

Gavin Floyd – A 17-game winner a year ago, Floyd was overvalued by many coming into the season. But it seems that he has reached the point now where he is an undervalued commodity. Floyd’s strikeout rate is up over 1.5 per nine from a year ago and his FIP is actually lower now than it was in 2008 (4.14 opposed to 4.77). But he is being hurt by baserunners, as his BB rate is up and his BABIP sits at .335 compared to a .296 lifetime mark. But in his last three outings, Floyd has allowed just seven walks in 23 IP. Improved control along with a little better luck on balls in play could add up to a big improvement in Floyd’s numbers.

Nolan Reimold – The Baltimore rookie has provided some nice power, with five home runs in his first 17 games. While that pace may not be sustainable, the power is not a huge surprise, as Reimold hit 25 HR last year in Double-A. Reimold has made good contact since returning from a strained oblique in 2007. He will not hurt you in average and could be a cheap source of power as he is owned in only 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues.

Trade

Nate McLouth – An All-Star in 2008, McLouth came into the season with an ADP of 59 as owners anticipated another 25-25 season and hoped for 30-30. So far, McLouth has been hitting for power but he has been disappointing in the other categories. He looks like a nice acquisition target, as his BABIP is a dismal .254 so far. But his updated ZiPS shows him hitting just .256 with 22 HR and 20 SB. McLouth’s first half of 2008, when he had 19 HR and a .542 SLG, is looking like a career outlier. His SLG was .459 in 2007, .426 in the second half of 2008 and is .451 this season.

Kevin Millwood – He is in the top 10 in the American League with a 3.23 ERA but that comes along with a 5.05 FIP. His .256 BABIP is 50 points below his career average and his 83.9 percent strand rate is unlikely to last. Adding to the worries is his K/9, which sits at 4.96, down from 6.67 last year and his career average of 7.09.

Raul Ibanez – An extremely reliable fantasy performer the past seven seasons, Ibanez is off to a fantastic start. CBS Sports lists him as the fifth-best fantasy player so far while RotoTimes has him at number four. If you can sell high, now would be the time. Ibanez is just not this good and he has absolutely feasted on the pitching of the last-place Nationals. Due to a quirk of the schedule, Ibanez and the Phillies have played 12 games versus Washington and no more than six against anyone else. In those 12 games versus the Nationals and their MLB-worst 6.16 R/G staff, Ibanez is hitting .440 with 6 HR, 18 RBI and 15 R. His play against Washington has raised his AVG alone 23 points. Ibanez won’t see that pitching staff again until September 8th.

Doug Davis – He has only posted two wins but has been a strong contributor in the other three SP categories. But a 4.78 FIP suggests Davis has been more than a little lucky with his 3.65 ERA. After posting a 2.91 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP in April, Davis had a 4.37 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP in May.

Mark DeRosa – The Indians are allegedly shopping DeRosa and so should you. Since he qualifies at three positions, DeRosa can still be a useful fantasy player and should have trade value. The updated ZiPS shows him with numbers that come close to his 2008 ones, but that seems overly optimistic. DeRosa did so much of his damage during his career year last year at Wrigley Field, where he batted .316/.404/.514. His road numbers last year of .254/.347/.448 look remarkably like what he has posted so far in 2009.

First off, full disclosure: this is a mailbag-inspired piece and Eric/OR should get his credit. He asked a good question, and it deserves some attention.

Who will be better from here on out this season, Elvis Andrus or Emmanuel Burriss?

First, let’s look at all the things this diminutive middle infielders have in common. They both weigh under 190 pounds, they both make their living in the middle infield and own shortstop eligibility in most leagues, and they are both fleet of foot. Okay, enough of the obvious, because the similarities run much deeper.

Check out their batted ball statistics. Burriss features a 19.8% line drive percentage, a 58% groundball percentage, and a 22% fly ball percentage. Andrus? How about 19.5%, 58.5%, and 22% respectively.

It gets even crazier when you start looking at their approach to the strike zone. They both make great contact inside the zone – consider Andrus’ 93.5% contact percentage in the zone, and Burriss’ career 92.8% number. Andrus reaches a little more than you’d like from a table setter (25.2% O-Swing %), and hey, Burriss has that same fault (24.8%). Both could walk more (Andrus – 5.8% BB%; Burriss – 7.3%), but a good walk rate does not a good batting average make.

No, their speed and good contact in the zone seems to presage that these players will put up decent batting averages in the future, if only because they’ve done so before. Given their skills, their high-ish BABIPs shouldn’t be too worrisome (Andrus – .309; Burriss – .326).

ZiPS, at first, seems to predict the same regression for both, though the reason for the regression is not immediately clear. Andrus owns a rest of season projection of .249/.304/.428 with 26 steals, and Burriss has a projection of .256/.312/.301 with 27 steals.

That slugging percentage is where the twins begin to separate a little more. The doubles and triples that Andrus has on Burriss will be valuable in many leagues (8 combined for Andrus, five doubles and no triples for Burriss). On the other hand, don’t count on home runs from Andrus – an 11% HR/FB percentage is not sustainable when you’re only hitting 22% of your balls in the air.

If there is a difference between the two, it just might be found in their slugging percentage, their BABIPs and in their differing strikeout percentages (Andrus – 13.1%; Burriss – 16.9%). Strikeouts are negatively correlated with batting average, and Burriss’ also has a little farther to fall because of his higher BABIP. Give a slight edge to Andrus for his lower strikeout rate, lower BABIP, and higher slugging percentage.

Any edge that you’d like give Burriss for his 300 extra plate appearances might disappear depending on your opinion of the 4-component speed score. While he had elite totals in the minors (7.8 and 7.7 in A ball), his 4.1 this year is dwarfed by Andrus’ 7.3 (despite only topping 7.0 in the minors once).

Though they seemed like twins to begin, Andrus looks to have slight edges in some key categories. The improving lineup around Andrus is the final nail in the coffin. Don’t bet against Elvis.

Perhaps lost in the hoopla of recent, more highly-anticipated, promotions such as Matt Wieters and David Price, the Arizona Diamondbacks organization called up one of the key players in its future.

Reliever Daniel Schlereth was promoted from double-A on May 29. The hard-throwing left-hander was the club’s first round draft pick (26th overall) out of the University of Arizona in the 2008 MLB amateur draft. It took the 23-year-old hurler just 25 minor league games to prove his MLB-readiness in the Diamondbacks’ eyes. During that span, he posted a 1.45 ERA and rates of 5.5 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9. Obviously, the walk rate is a concern at this point, especially with it sitting at 6.2 BB/9 in 2009 at double-A.

There are definitely some other key statistics with Schlereth’s 2009 minor league performance to date, including the nine hits allowed in 19 innings (4.3 H/9). He’s tough to hit when he gets the ball over the plate. As well, his fastball sits in the low 90s (He’s averaging 93 mph in his two MLB games) and it can touch the mid-to-upper 90s. His curveball is also very good and he’s quite confident in it, as witnessed by his willingness to throw it 43% of the time in his brief MLB career (two appearances, and innings).

In those two big league innings, Schlereth has yet to allow a run and he’s walked one while also striking out a batter. Of the outs made in play, four have come via the groundball and just one was in the air. In his pro career, Schlereth has a 55.4% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is even better at just 9.2% (His BABIP-allowed is .254).

The southpaw reliever is not going to inherit the Diamondbacks’ closer role right away, but he is definitely the odds-on-favorite to claim the job in the not-too-distant future. Current closer Chad Qualls is just 30 years old, but he’ll be a free agent after the 2010 season and the Arizona organization is one of the more cost-conscious clubs around. Qualls is also just 27-for-49 in career save opportunities, so he is not amongst the elite closers in the game (although he is 12-for-14 this season).

Schlereth is a player that deserves to be monitored over the next year or two as he should eventually begin to earn save opportunities. If Arizona wanted to be proactive, the club could start mixing in the save opportunities now, with the season already looking bleak in terms of playoff opportunities. Schlereth and Qualls could make a nice lefty-righty closer combo, with lefties hitting .325 off the latter in 2009.

Stock Up

Justin Upton, Diamondbacks

21 year-olds aren’t supposed to go all Barry Bonds on the league, but Upton now holds a scalding .329/.404/.606 line with a .434 wOBA that places ninth among major league hitters. The .329 average likely won’t persist- Upton is still whiffing frequently (27.6% of his AB’s) and his BABIP sits at .412- but I’m nitpicking. He’s working the count well (11 BB%) and beating the bejesus out of the baseball (.276 Isolated Power). Upton is dominating at the highest level, yet he’s younger than some guys who will go in the first round of this month’s amateur draft. Suffice it to say, he’s among some exclusive, rarified company.

Nelson Cruz, Rangers

Last fall, I examined Cruz’s crushing of PCL pitching and its ramifications for his career prospects. Regarding his Jake Fox-like reign of terror in the high minors and his equally impressive work in a small sample for Texas last summer, I said: “Cruz has his uses on a major league roster as a power bat, but keep in mind that he’s a 28 year-old minor league slugger, not a hot young prospect. Don’t be fooled by that small sample size.”

So far, I can file that one in the “D’oh!” department. Formerly of the A’s and Brewers organizations, Cruz has translated his “Hulk Smash” act to the majors, with a .410 wOBA. His control of the strike zone isn’t impeccable, but there’s nothing wrong with drawing a free pass 9.6% of the time with a 24% strikeout rate. His ISO is nearing .300, to boot (.296). Cruz has seen fastballs just 53 percent of the time (one of the lowest rates in the bigs), but evidently he’s doing just fine against breaking stuff, thank you very much.

Even taking the cozy environs of Arlington into account, Cruz has been a stud: with 11.9 Batting Runs (park-adjusted), he ranks 13th among outfielders. Throw in 9 steals in 10 tries, and you have a guy who’s looking anything but a minor league mirage.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Pavano has been the butt of countless jokes for his fruitless Yankee tenure and propensity to turn his training room visits into an episode of House, but let’s give the man some credit. As Dave Cameron has pointed out, Pavano’s FIP (3.78) is far better than his 5.29 ERA. Carl is punching out 7.14 batters per nine innings, his highest rate since 2001 with the Expos, and he holds a 29.5 Outside-Swing% (by far his highest since 2002, and five percent above the league average).

Randy Wolf, Dodgers

The Wolf-Man inked a 1-year, $5 million deal with L.A. this winter, with performance incentives based on innings pitched. With 1.2 WAR, Wolf has already provided $5.3M in value for the Dodgers. His 2.85 K/BB ratio (7.36 K/9, 2.58 BB/9) is his highest since 2001 with the Phillies. The 2.84 ERA is something of a misnomer- his FIP is 3.88- but Wolf has still been one of the best free agent signings of the off-season.

Luke Scott, Orioles

Having recovered from a bum shoulder that put him on the DL, Scott cracked 6 homers in a four-game span from May 27th to the 30th. Posting a 1.479 OPS during an abbreviated month of May, Scott now holds a blistering .445 wOBA for the season, with 11 taters in 133 PA. The O’s are an awfully interesting club, what with their collection of blue-chip talent, but contention certainly isn’t in the cards in ’09. The soon-to-be 31 year-old Scott could do wonders for an Atlanta outfield that holds a collective .291 wOBA (dead-last in the majors).

Stock Down

Shairon Martis, Nationals

Martis racked up five early wins despite mediocre peripherals, but things have quickly gone south for the former Dutch ace. Martis isn’t fooling much of anyone (4.06 K/9, 6th-lowest among qualified starters) and isn’t painting the corners (3.59 BB/9). The result is a 5.14 FIP. The 22 year-old is one of many Nats starters who put the ball in play often, a problem given Washington’s wretched fielding. Nationals starters rank 26th in K/9, behind a defensive unit that ranks last the in the majors in UZR/150.

Ervin Santana, Angels

No sweeping conclusions can be derived from 4 starts and 18 innings of pitching, but Santana’s return from an elbow ailment has been an unhappy one. After two passable starts against the Red Sox and Mariners, Santana was taken to the woodshed by the light-hitting White Sox (1 IP, 7 R on the 25th), and his second start against the M’s last night was also grim (5.1 IP, 8 R).

The 2009 version of Santana has not yet resembled the 2008 model that came equipped with blazing 94.4 MPH heat and a sinister 83 MPH slider. So far, his average fastball velocity sits at 90.7 MPH, with an 81 MPH breaker. Opposing batters made contact against Santana’s stuff just 77.1% of the time in ’08, but have put the bat on the ball 86.4% in ’09 (80.7% MLB average). It wouldn’t be wise to do anything rash like dropping him or trading him for 50 cents on the dollar, but Santana should probably be benched until he works through these kinks.

Willy Taveras, Reds

Taveras was surprisingly competent during the month of April, playing the leadoff-man’s game with aplomb (12.3 BB%, 12.3 K%), but the former Astro and Rockie reverted to his batting average-dependent ways in May (5.5 BB%, 16.7 K%). The result was a hollow .269/.307/.333 line after April’s .262/.351/.228 showing.

Taveras has just about the least amount of extra-base thump in the majors and he generally doesn’t work the count, so he’s an offensive liability when those singles aren’t finding holes. Unfortunately, the 27 year-old has been hitting fewer grounders as the years have gone by: 55.6% in 2006, 51.5% in ’07 and ’08, and 46.3% this season. Nothing good comes from a Taveras flyball, which makes his 35.3% flyball rate (28.6% career average) troubling. Yes, he swipes a lot of bags, but those employing Taveras as an everyday outfielder in fantasy circles lose out on production in other categories.

James Loney, Dodgers

The 25 year-old lefty continues to control the strike zone (9.5 BB%, 10.4 K%), but he’s been showing less power than Juan Castro, for goodness sakes. Loney’s ISO sits at a sickly .085, this after a disappointing 2008 showing (.145 ISO) that would look downright Herculean compared to his current mark. Loney is hitting plenty of line drives (23.5%), but he’s not getting terribly unlucky on balls put in play (.315 BABIP).

In 2009, the average first baseman is slugging .492 with a .364 OBP; Loney holds a .373 SLG% with a .351 OBP. The 6-3, 220 pounder is still relatively young, but singles hitters just aren’t that valuable at a position where power tends to rule the day.

Andy Pettitte, Yankees

Pettitte has long been an underappreciated piece of New York’s tremendous run of success, and he posted a fine 3.71 FIP in 2008. However, the 2009 version hasn’t been as productive. Yes, his ERA (4.10 in ’09) is lower than last year (4.54) and his record is better, but that’s more the product of performance on balls put in play. Pettitte had a .339 BABIP last season, compared to .299 this season. Lead-footed in the field last season (-5.4 team UZR/150, 25th in the majors), the Bombers are slightly in the black this year (+0.4 UZR/150, 14th).

In terms of things that Pettitte has more direct control over, he’s taken a step backward in 2009. His K rate, nearly seven last season, has fallen to just 4.81 (making New York’s defensive improvement all the more important for Pettitte). He has also issued 3.25 walks per nine innings, his highest mark since 2004. The result is a middling 4.86 FIP, the highest mark of his distinguished career.