Stock Up

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

During the off-season, I wondered if Hermida might be headed for a Griev(e)ous career path, as a highly-touted prospect who quickly fades. His once-acclaimed plate discipline had eroded, and his power failed to develop. Hermida offered at just 19 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone in 2006, but that figure had climbed all the way to 27.8% by 2008 (the MLB average hovers around 25 percent). Compounding matters, his percentage of pitches swung at within the zone went down (from 64.1% in ’06 to 59.6% in ’08). For a guy with a career .398 OBP in the minors, this was an awfully strange development.

In 2009, Hermida’s beginning to reverse those trends. His outside-swing percentage is down to 23.9, and he’s taking a cut at pitches within the zone 61 percent of the time. Hermida’s walk rate is up nearly four percent (12.6 BB% in ’09, 8.7 BB% in ’08), and his wOBA sits at .355 after last year’s tepid .321. He’s still not pummeling the ball (.145 ISO), but the 25 year-old has lofted 3 dingers over the past week. Hermida might not ever develop into a full-fledged star, but he’s looking like a solid offensive cog.

Scott Baker, Twins

Fresh off a highly promising 2008 season in which he posted a 3.36 K/BB ratio and a 3.79 FIP, Baker was battered by the long ball to begin 2009. The Oklahoma State product coughed up a stunning 14 big flys over the first two months. Baker is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.5 GB%) who will give up his share of round-trippers, but he has settled down after that fireworks bonanza. The 27 year-old’s FIP is at 4.55 and dropping. His K/BB ratio is a superb 5.17, and he’s dominating hitters to the tune of a 23/2 K/BB in June.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

Reynolds’ average has little chance of remaining in the .280’s (he’s whiffing nearly 39% of the time and has a BABIP of .384), but this Arizona slugger is turning in a quality season nonetheless. His walk rate is up a tick (from 10.6% in ’08 to 11.8 this season), with an ISO increase from .219 to .294 (10th among qualified hitters). After scuffling versus same-handed pitching in 2008 (.226/.298/.409 vs. RHP), Reynolds has hung in there against righties for a .280/.358/.566 line in 2009.

The third baseman/ first baseman has seen a ton of sliders this year (26 percent), likely the result of his poor performance against the pitch last season (-1.73 runs below average per 100 pitches). In 2009, however, Reynolds is smacking the slider at a +1.29 run pace. To boot, he has also already eclipsed his SB total from last season: Reynolds has 13 swipes in 16 attempts.

Ben Zobrist, Rays

This is getting ridiculous. The switch-hitting Zobrist, a former Astros prospect acquired in the 2006 Aubrey Huff swap, posted a career .318/.428/.459 line in the minors. He owned the upper minors, but failed to hit in two trials with Tampa in 2006 (.243 wOBA in 198 PA) and 2007 (.180 wOBA in 105 PA).

Zobrist got his foot in the door last season, with a .364 wOBA (.253/.339/.505 in 227 PA). This year? He’s doing his best Mickey Mantle impression, with an absurd .460 wOBA and a .309/.424/.667 line in 198 PA. He’s walking at a Bondsian clip (16.7%), with a near .360 ISO. Among batters with at least 190 trips to the dish, Zobrist is tied with Boston’s Youkilis for the highest wOBA.

Clearly, we shouldn’t expect this to continue, but Zobrist looks like a highly valuable player anyway. The rest-of-season ZiPS projection has him posting a .282/.360/.450 line. Better yet for fantasy owners, Zobrist’s position versatility should make him eligible in the outfield, second base and possibly shortstop.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

Nolasco has endured one of the most bizarre seasons from a starter in quite some time. If you focused just on his ERA, you would assume that he was some Sidney Ponson/John Van Benschoten love child (7.62 ERA). However, his peripherals aren’t bad by any stretch: 7.94 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, good for a 4.10 FIP. Somehow, Nolasco’s BABIP sits at .399; balls put in play against him are falling for hits as if every hitter were Ty Cobb.

Some of the blame can certainly be laid at the feet of Florida’s defenders, who rank ahead of only the last-at-everything Nationals in team Ultimate Zone Rating. Fish fielders have converted balls put in play into outs 68.5 percent of the time (23rd in the majors). Even if the Florida’s pitchers have a collective .315 BABIP, Nolasco’s near .400 mark sticks out like a sore thumb.

Plenty of line drives have been hit against Nolasco (24.7%), but it’s hard to say that a guy garnering an above-average rate of swings outside of the strike zone (27.3%), with a contact rate (79%) below the league average (80.6%) has been lit up. Nolasco’s abhorrent BABIP and extremely low strand rate (54.7%) will improve moving forward, making him an excellent buy-low candidate.

Stock Down

Chris Young, Padres

Has anyone seen Young’s fastball? The 6-10 Ivy Leaguer has seen his velocity drop precipitously over the past three seasons: 88.7 MPH in 2007, 87.2 in ’08 and just 85.8 in ’09. That’s a problem for a flyball pitcher who likes to work high in the zone. Young has thrown his heater nearly three-quarters of the time during his career, and continues to chuck fastballs over 70 percent of the time. Unfortunately, the pitch scarcely resembles its former self.

Young’s run value on the cheese has gone from +1.26 per 100 pitches in 2007 to +0.91 in ’08 and a lousy -0.64 in 2009. His contact rate is up significantly (76.1% in ’07 to 83.2% in ’09), and he’s throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone (about 3 percent below the 48.9% MLB average this year). With below-average cheddar thrown at the letters, Young’s HR rate has soared from 0.52 per nine innings in 2007, 1.14 in ’08 and 1.42 in ’09. And that’s without an inflated HR/FB rate (just 10%), and the benefit of Petco.

Honestly, it’s hard to make the case that Young is even a league-average pitcher at this stage. Take a look at his ERA+ figures over the past three seasons (ERA+ park-adjusts a pitcher’s ERA, placing it on a scale where 100 is average, above 100 is above-average and below 100 is below-average):

2007: 129 ERA+
2008: 97 ERA+
2009: 72 ERA+

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

Galarraga was due for some regression this season (4.88 FIP in 2008, compared to a more sparkly 3.73 ERA), but he’s just been plain bad this year. His ERA sits at 5.56, with an even worse 5.93 FIP. His K rate is down to 5.68 from 2008’s 6.35, with an increase in free passes from 3.07 per nine to 4.13. Armando’s low-90’s fastball is getting roped (-2.14 runs per 100 pitches), and his mid-80’s slider/cutter (thrown 41.2% of the time) is getting crunched as well. The pitch had a +2.69 run value in ’08, but comes in at a paltry -0.08 in 2009.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies’

Rollins’ struggles have been well-documented, as the 2007 N.L. MVP has a macabre .258 wOBA. J-Roll has done more damage in the batter’s box than any other player, with a stunning -17.7 Batting Runs.

A .226 BABIP has certainly done him no favors, but Rollins has drawn a walk just 4.3% of the time after last year’s career-high 9.4% pace. His ISO (.112) is at the lowest point since a small cup of jobe with Philly back in 2000. Strangely, Rollins has gone from a very good fastball hitter to one of the worst over the past several seasons:

Runs/100 pitches value against fastballs, 2006-2009

2006: +1.20
2007: +0.58
2008: -0.12
2009: -2.04

Only Bengie Molina and Brian Giles have fared worse against the heat in 2009.

Daniel Murphy, Mets

While Murphy wasn’t out in left field long enough for us to derive a significant sample, the consensus seems to be that he performed about as well as a grizzly bear on roller skates. As such, Murphy (a former 2B/3B in the minors) is likely relegated to first base, where offensive expectations are exceptionally high: the average MLB first baseman is batting .276/.364/.487 in 2009. Murphy is making plenty of contact (11.6 K%) and his .248 BABIP should improve, but a .116 ISO just doesn’t get it done. He’s 24 and has time to improve, but Murphy is looking more like a Ross Gload-type at this point.

Dontrelle Willis, Tigers

Willis’ peripherals had been headed south during his last two seasons in Florida and he accumulated a ton of mileage on his arm at a young age, but the optimist and fan in me hoped that Dontrelle could find at least some semblance of his former self this season. Sadly, that does not appear to be in the cards.

The 27 year-old D-Train has a mind-bending 17/28 K/BB ratio in 33.2 innings after yesterday’s 8-walk disaster in Pittsburgh. Just 42% of his offerings have been within the strike zone, making hitters understandably hesitant to swing (41 swing%, compared to the 44.8% MLB average). When batters do take the lumber off their shoulders, they’re making contact about 7 percent more than the MLB average. I really do wish Willis the best, but there’s nothing positive to say here.

Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

NYY – Sabathia
MIL – Gallardo
TEX – Millwood
TOR – Romero
MIN – Perkins

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Liriano
NYY – Wang
TEX – Mathis

Sabathia reeled off five straight Quality Starts but has allowed four runs in each of his past two starts. Sabathia’s FIP (3.74) is almost identical to his ERA (3.68). He has an interesting mix as his BABIP sits at a low .261 but his strand rate is just 69.2 percent. Sabathia is one of the few pitchers seemingly not affected by the homer explosion at new Yankee Stadium. He has allowed just three HR in 42 IP at home this season.

Gallardo has allowed two earned runs or less in nine of his 12 starts this year. However, he has been lucky with a .243 BABIP and an 81.2 percent strand rate. Gallardo’s velocity has rebounded and his K/9 sits at a nice 8.88. Besides walks, his other ratios are in line with, or better than, what he did in 2006. Gallardo is doing everything owners could have reasonably hoped for coming into the season.

Millwood keeps pitching well despite, well, everything. In his last outing he pitched into the eighth inning without allowing a run despite striking out only one batter. His FIP is two runs above his ERA, his strikeout rate is at a career low and he has his highest home run rate since 2001. And according to CBS Sports, he is the 51st-best fantasy player in 2009.

Romero currently has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. ZiPS is not impressed. For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Romero to finish with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. It just goes to show what an 86.4 percent strand rate can do for a fellow.

Perkins has not pitched in the majors since May 18th due to a sore elbow. He has made two rehab starts in Class-A, going seven scoreless innings with four strikeouts on June 9th. He gets home starts this week against Pittsburgh and Houston, two below-average teams in terms of runs scored and the bottom two squads in the NL Central.

Toronto Blue Jays DH/LF Adam Lind entered the 2009 season with plenty of questions about his long-term prospects. A 3rd-round pick out of South Alabama in the 2004 amateur draft, Lind lashed minor league pitching (including a mammoth .330/.394/.556 slash line between AA New Hampshire and AAA Syracuse in 2006). The southpaw also enjoyed a scalding cup of coffee with the Jays late in the ’06 season (.432 wOBA in 65 plate appearances). Unfortunately, he then proceeded to frustrate hopeful Jays fans and fantasy owners for the next two seasons.

Given the beat down he gave International League pitching and his hot start with Toronto, Lind’s 2007 season had to be considered a disappointment. He posted a .238/.278/.400 line in 311 PA, with a paltry .291 wOBA. Lind often went fishin’ off the plate, chasing nearly 30 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (25 percent MLB average in ’07). That impatience led to a 5.2% walk rate and a high first-pitch strike percentage. Adam offered at the first pitch or got behind in the count 0-1 61.7% of the time (58.8% MLB average that year). Lind was optioned to the minors in July, and while he struggled upon being brought up again in September (.255 OBP), the Jays still held high hopes. After all, Lind was still just 23.

His work in 2008 looked better on the surface (.282/.316/.439, .325 wOBA in 349 PA), but much of that improvement was a boost in BABIP (.271 in ’07, .322 in ’08) despite a similar line drive rate. In terms of controlling the strike zone, Lind continued to scuffle. His walk rate dipped to 4.7 percent, while he chased even more pitches off the dish (34 outside-swing percentage). His first-pitch strike percentage hiked up to 64.2%. That placed Lind among other hacking luminaries such as Jose Castillo, Chris Davis and Miguel Olivo.

With two years of tepid performances in the batter’s box, Lind was under the microscope this past spring. Most every projection system pegged him as a league-average hitter. CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS and Oliver all had Lind projected for a wOBA somewhere between .326 and .339, with an OBP in the .320’s and a slugging percentage around .450. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system churned out a similar .272/.326/.458 prognostication.

We’re well into June now, and Lind is demolishing those forecasts. 26 in July, Lind is batting a robust .310/.375/.552, good for a .397 wOBA. While he hasn’t turned into a walk machine, Lind has upped his rate of free passes to a more tolerable 8.8 percent.

His outside-swing percentage has been pared down to 27.1 percent, within shouting distance of the 24.8 percent MLB average. After posting a .162 Isolated Power in 2007 and .156 in 2008, Lind is driving the ball to the tune of a .243 mark in 2009. He chopped the ball into the dirt over 50 percent of the time in ’08, but that mark is down to 43.2 percent this season. His first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.4 percent, below the big league average (57.9) for the first time in his career.

Lind’s biggest gains have come against breaking pitches. He struggled with sliders in ’07 and ’08 (with run values of -1.37 and -1.56 per 100 pitches, respectively), but he’s smoking them for a +2.56 run value per 100 tosses this season. Slightly below-average versus curves in 2008 (-0.50 per 100 pitches), Lind has hammered the hook for a +3.54 value this year (8th-best among qualified hitters).

Lind’s scorching start to the 2009 season does not look like a mirage. He’s doing exactly what you’d like a hitter to do: he’s showing more restraint by laying off pitcher’s pitches off the plate, working the count, improving his performance against breaking stuff and hitting fewer grounders. It may have taken him a while to figure things out, but Lind looks like legitimate breakout hitter.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Kevin Correia – Coming off back-to-back wins, Correia gets two home starts in Petco this week. And he also squares off against Seattle and Oakland, two below-average run scoring teams, with Seattle being last in the AL with a 3.77 runs per game average. Correia is owned in only seven percent of CBS Sports leagues and could be a nice pickup for his two starts this week.

Gil Meche – Slowed part of the season by a sore back, Meche has turned in three straight solid outings, in which he has 20 strikeouts in 20 IP with a 1.35 ERA in that span. However, he is just 1-0 in those three games, indicative of the poor run support he has received in 2009. The Royals have scored two runs or fewer in six of his 13 starts this year. Make Meche active for his two home starts this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After starting the season 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA, Rodriguez has allowed 19 runs in his last 20.2 IP. His ERA now stands at 2.82 and only six unearned runs in that stretch kept it from being even worse. His road ERA is 3.74, over 1.5 runs higher than his home mark, and he has starts this week at Texas and at Minnesota. Pull him from your lineup this week.

Tim Wakefield – He has a great record this year despite some uneven pitching. But he is coming off back-to-back Quality Starts and he has two home starts in Interleague matchups scheduled this week. Since 2006, Wakefield is 6-2 in Interleague play. Make sure he is active this week.

Barry Zito – After some tough luck earlier in the season, Zito has picked up two consecutive wins despite not pitching all that well. He has two home starts this week and Zito gets the nod to start due to his big home/road split in 2009. This year he has a 2.70 ERA with a 2.44 K/BB ratio at home compared to a 5.26 ERA and a 1.25 K/BB ratio in road games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Wainwright, Zambrano, Jurrjens, Harang, Lackey, Kershaw, Liriano, Danks, Volstad, Pavano, Pelfrey, Braden, Wang, D. Davis, Bush, Niemann, Guthrie, De La Rosa, Martis, Morton, Mathis.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 9 and how they did.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 7 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (2 starts)
Blanton – Advised to start. W, 10 K, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Burnett – Advised to sit. W, 8 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Duke – Advised to sit. W, 0 K, 1.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (1)
Washburn – Advised to start. 9 K, 1.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP (2)

Without question, Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. A 6-3, 220 pounder who’s just barely old enough to legally kick back a beer after a game, Kershaw possesses a searing mid-90’s fastball and a hook that earned the “Public Enemy Number One” designation from Vin Scully.

While Kershaw has as much long-term potential as any starter in the game, it can be a little frustrating to watch him endure growing pains at the major league level. Take his last outing: a 2.2 inning, four-walk stinker versus the Padres. In his next start, Kershaw could punch out a baker’s dozen (as he did against the Giants on April 15th), or he could fail to make it out of the third inning.

In 107 innings last season, Kershaw posted rates of 8.36 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 while compiling a 4.08 FIP. Authoring a 4.04 FIP in 2009, he’s whiffing a few more batters (8.72 K/9) but his control has taken another step backward. Kershaw is issuing an unacceptable 5.48 walks per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of free passes among all qualified starting pitchers. Not surprisingly, Kershaw is averaging about 5.1 innings per start, while tossing 4.3 pitches per plate appearance (4.0 in 2008). No pitcher in the N.L. has thrown more pitches per PA (well, unless you wanna count Cody Ross’ one-inning stint for the Fish).

At the moment, Kershaw’s biggest obstacle to acedom would appear to be his lack of a third pitch. Clayton’s 93.6 MPH fastball (thrown about 75 percent of the time) has been a quality offering, with a run value of +0.94 runs per 100 pitches that ranks in the top 20 among starters. That vaunted slooow curve (utilized about 18 percent) is also biting, at +1.58 (just outside the top 20). His changeup, though? Clayton has pulled the string just over 6 percent of the time. While keeping in mind that the sample is small, the change has a sordid run value of -5.42 per 100 pitches (5th worst among starters).

The changeup is typically thrown to opposite-handed batters, so Kershaw hasn’t really had a pitch that moves away from righties. In 2009, Clayton has eviscerated left-handed hitters with his heat and yellow hammer to the tune of a .149/.255/.213 line in 56 PA. He has a 3.17 K/BB ratio versus southpaw batters. While right-handers aren’t exactly lighting him up, they are getting on base at a far higher clip (.237/.355/.390, 1.3 K/BB ratio in 216 PA).

Take that June 10th start against San Diego. The Padres had six guys batting from the right side, none of them especially imposing (Eckstein, Kouzmanoff, Headley, E. Gonzalez, Blanco, J. Wilson). Here’s how Kershaw pitched to a lineup that wouldn’t stand out at Portland (graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

The green dots are fastballs, the pink ones are curveballs and the lonely yellow dot is a changeup.

There’s just one changeup. Mostly, Kershaw flipped curveballs up there that he couldn’t locate, or attempted to bust righties on the inner half of the plate with fastballs. He gave up doubles to Kouzmanoff and Headley, and somehow managed to walk Blanco (career .289 OBP) once and Wilson (.279) twice!

That’s an extreme case, but it does serve to highlight the next big step for Kershaw. He’s going to have to find a way to tighten the strike zone against righty batters to graduate from talented-but-inconsistent prodigy to full-fledged ace.

Consider that Rod Barajas and his .711 OPS is probably the 12th best catcher in most formats currently, and you’ll realize how thin the catching position really is. The buy-low catcher is an important phenomenon, especially in two-catcher leagues. Let’s take a look at two guys that could yet net you a top-12 finish at the position, despite their currently ugly stats.

Geovany Soto – Almost every secondary statistic screams that Soto is a great buy-low. Of course, any player with “Sweet” Lou Piniella as their manager has to come with an asterisk next to their name. They could be subject to the vagaries of their impulsive manager, and just as likely to end up in AAA as starting regularly. That’s how Soto ended up on the bench for a two game mental breather this past week. Maybe Piniella will take credit for the impending hot streak.

Yes, his four for eight so far this week (with a home run) should be the beginning of something good for Soto. Let me count the ways. The first is that his BABIP is a meager .261 against a .328 career number. This is in the face of a 20.9% line drive percentage, which is both decent and in line with his career percentage (20.6%). His fly ball rate, ground ball rate, walk rate and strikeout rate are all either the same as his career rates – or better. He’s walking more than ever and striking out less than ever. Pitchers are sending him more or less the same mix of pitches, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone.

When all of a player’s career numbers are the same or better, and only one number isn’t right, it’s a great bet that the player will recover to his career norms. A quick check at the speed of balls leaving his bat (thanks to Harry Pavlidis and his look at the speed of balls leaving the bat) shows us that Soto has about as many 90+ mph balls leaving his bat as Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley. Yes, he’s a good buy-low.

Chris Iannetta – This situation is not as clear. Early on in the season, I took a look at Iannetta’s legendary batted ball statistics. Back then he had a 5.1% line drive rate, easily the worst in the league. Along with his 69.2% fly ball percentage, his stats painted the picture of a young catcher swinging for the fences.

As with all outliers in small sample sizes, these numbers quickly came back into the fold. Iannetta is sporting a relatively robust 13.8% line drive percentage now, and a more modest 55% of his balls are traveling through the air. He’s still swinging for the fences – and now that it’s not so extreme, this is probably a good thing.

All the other numbers are mostly trending positive. He has the highest walk rate of his career, and his strikeout percentage is now at a three-year low. He’s swinging at fewer balls outside the zone than his career rate, and his contact rate in the zone and overall are above his career numbers.

Considering that his career line drive percentage is 19.5% in 865 career plate appearances, the ZiPS RoS prediction of a .261/.369/.479 finish to the season (with 10 more home runs) seems very achievable. If he can combine a higher line drive rate with the career-high fly ball rate, he could, of course, better the projection considerably, making him another good buy-low candidate.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tim Alderson: We hear a lot about Madison Bumgarner and deservedly so, but Alderson could very well beat the big left-hander to the Majors. Like Bumgarner, Alderson was drafted out of high school in the 2007 draft. Although his stuff is not as electric, he has better overall command and control. In fact, Alderson, 20, has walked just five batters all season (58.2 innings), including two in six double-A starts. If a spot is not open in the starting rotation for the right-hander, he could initially slide into the bullpen to offer some long relief.

Blake Parker: It’s been an interesting ride through the minors for the Cubs prospects, but he’s finally nearing his shot. Originally a 16th round selection in 2006 out of the University of Arkansas, Parker started out his pro career as a third base, but did not hit very well. With a strong arm, the club moved him to the mound and his career took off. The right-hander features a good sinker that can touch 95 mph and his secondary stuff, a slider and changeup, is improving rapidly. So far this season, he has yet to allow a home run in 24.1 innings and he’s striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings. His control (13 walks) still needs a little work.

Luis Perez: The Jays took a gamble on aggressively promoting Perez from low-A to double-A to begin the 2009 season. The southpaw was older (22) than the traditional Latin player when he came over to North America in 2007. He throws harder than most left-handers and he gets an incredible amount of ground balls to go along with a healthy dose of strikeouts. He has a ground-ball rate of 57.2% in 2009 despite the two-level jump and it was 60.6% in 2008. If he can sharpen his command just a bit more, he has the makings of a No. 3 or 4 starter. Worst case scenario, he could be a loogy, with left-handed batters hitting just .188 against him at double-A.

Chris Heisey: Everyone just keeps waiting for Heisey’s hot streak to come to an end. Cincinnati’s double-A outfielder, though, just keeps getting stronger with a line of .370/.446/.621 in 219 at-bats. He also has 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases and has walked more than he’s struck out (1.17 BB/K). Heisey hit .338 in April, .404 in May, and he’s well above .300 in June so far. It’s about time for Cincinnati to find room in triple-A for the 24-year-old prospect.

Michael Brantley: One of the pieces that Cleveland acquired for C.C. Sabathia, Brantley just keeps doing what he does best: Hit. Only 22, he’s already playing in triple-A and has a line of .275/.354/.381 with 19 steals in 218 at-bats. The left-handed hitter has a career .306 average and he has stolen 123 bases in 154 attempts (80%). He’s also walked 50 times more than he’s struck out in his career, which bodes extremely well for a top-of-the-order hitter. Brantley’s biggest weakness is his below-average defense in the outfield.

Scott Sizemore: Detroit desperately needs depth in the minor league system, so it’s nice to see a prospect improving his value in the upper levels of the minor league system. Sizemore has advanced through the system rather slowly for a college-drafted player but he’s almost MLB ready now. The second baseman has shown improved numbers in 2009 with a line of .306/.403/.532 and nine homers in 216 at-bats. The 24-year-old infielder has the potential to produce at least a few above-average offensive seasons, especially with his increased power numbers (perhaps stemming from being healthy after a hand injury in 2008).

Gaby Sanchez: The Florida Marlins team has had a tough year and the club has quickly slid down the standings in the National League East. If the team continues to struggle, current first baseman Jorge Cantu could find himself on the way out of town in return for some cheaper talent. If that happens, Sanchez could earn a shot as the everyday first baseman. He almost earned the opening day assignment (with Cantu manning third), but a poor spring doomed him to triple-A and then he was sidelined with an injury. Now healthy, he’s hitting .337/.409/.515 in 21 games.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Oh no, Mo: Rivera was stung for 4 runs in 0.2 innings against the Rays on June 6th, before collecting saves against Tampa the next two nights. While there’s some “what’s wrong with Rivera?!” hysteria going around, the answer might simply be, not much. His 3.20 ERA looks inflated, but a .336 BABIP and a very high HR/FB rate (23.8%, compared to a 6.6% career average) portend to better days ahead. He has a 15.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, folks. He’s okay.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria only got into one game this week (mop-up work in a 6-2 win over the Jays on the 6th), as the Royals plummet in the standings (10 losses in 11 games). Fun fact: Soria’s curve has been +2.7 runs above average in 2009 (7th among relievers), despite his throwing just 10.1 innings thus far.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan picked up two saves this week, against the Mariners on the 5th and the Athletics on the 9th. Joe’s 5.2 K/BB ratio is his highest mark since 2006, and he’s tossing a first-pitch strike 67.1 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average). He’s also jamming plenty of hitters, with a 21.7 infield/flyball percentage.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper converted a save op versus the Tigers on June 4th, then pitched a scoreless inning in a losing effort against Texas on the 7th. Papelbon’s fastball (used nearly 80% of the time) hasn’t quite been the dominating offering of years past. His heater’s run value was +3.29 per 100 pitches in 2007 and +2.21 in 2008, but just +0.93 this season. Then again, an “off” year for the 28 year-old is still pretty darned good: his WPA sits at 1.57, 8th among relievers.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks gave up a run in a none-save situation vs. the Indians on the 5th, but came back to get a save the next night with a scoreless frame. Bobby has given up more dingers than one would expect (15 HR/FB%), but otherwise he has been quite good. His 3.4 K/BB ratio is well above last year’s 2.24 mark, and his contact rate is down about 6 percent from last season.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Unfortunately, Frank is still plagued by shoulder soreness. Francisco hasn’t pitched since June 3rd, making a retroactive DL stint a possibility. C.J. Wilson gets any chances that come until Francisco is mended, but his 16/12 K/BB ratio and -0.12 WPA will have you reaching for the Tums if you’re forced to turn to him.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

After issuing just 2 free passes during the entire month of May, Downs walked two in 2.1 innings this past week. He still owns a sterling 25 K’s and 4 walks in 25.1 innings, good for a 6.25 K/BB ratio that nearly triples last season’s mark.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood continues to be wild, with 2 walks in 2.1 saveless frames this past week. Unable to locate his fastball (which has gone from a +0.75 run value per 100 pitches in ’08 to a lousy -2.6 in ’09), Wood isn’t getting anyone to chase his stuff out of the zone. His 17.4 Outside-Swing% is fourth-worst among all relievers, with other control-challenged wrecks like Evan Meek and DFA’d Hayden Penn in the same neighborhood. With -0.1 WAR, Wood isn’t providing the kind of stability that the Tribe had in mind when they dished out 2 years and $20.5M on the free agent market.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes notched 3 saves this week, collecting one against the Jays on the 4th, the Tigers on the 5th and the Rays on the 9th. A .361 BABIP has done him no favors, though opponents are making contact against the former Rockie 79.5% of the time, well above any other season dating back to 2002. The increase has come primarily on pitches within the strike zone (88 Z-Contact% in 2009, compared to 80.4% in 2008; the MLB average is 87.7%).

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Luckily for fantasy owners, Bailey appears to be the man in Oakland. He picked up saves on the 7th and the 8th, and if he continues to get the call, he’ll be in “Death Grip” territory in short order. Bailey now has a 44/14 K/BB ratio in 37.1 innings, with a 2.92 FIP. The 25 year-old rookie has the stuff and strikeout potential to be an elite reliever.

George Sherrill, Orioles

George gave out a run and a walk over two appearances this week, notching a save against his former team (the Mariners) last night. Sherrill’s 3.04 BB/9 is the lowest rate of his career, though opposing hitters are increasingly making more contact with his stuff. Sherrill’s K rate, 11.04 per nine in ’07, dropped to 9.79 in ’08 and 8.37 this season. Over that same time frame, his Z-Contact rate (the contact rate on pitches within the strike zone) has jumped from 80.8 in ’07, 84.2 in ’08 and 92 in 2009. That’s the 9th-highest rate of zone contact among all relievers.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Uh oh: Rodney resembled his former wild-child self this past week. In 4 frames and five appearances, Fernando was torched for 6 runs and five walks, including 3 runs and 3 walks without getting an out versus the White Sox last night. Rodney had seemingly made strides in painting the corners, but he has located just 46.3% of his pitches within the zone during the month of June, compared to 48.8% in May and 58.7% in April.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Aardsma recovered from a bumpy 3-run fiasco on May 31st to post scoreless innings on June 3rd, 5th and 6th. He’s still asking for trouble, however, with 2 more walks in 3 innings. The chances of a guy remaining effective with a walk rate pushing six and a half are between slim and none. Selling high here would likely be the best option, unless you want to wager that Aardsma’s 87.1% strand rate (73.5% career average) and .247 BABIP (.316 career) will persist.

Morrow took baby steps toward reclaiming the ninth-inning gig, tossing 3 innings of scoreless baseball. Here’s a question: since we can pretty much rule out a return to the rotation for the former Cal star, would it be best for the M’s to leave Morrow where he is, soaking up a few innings at a time (4 of his last 6 relief appearances have gone 2 or more innings)? Why can’t Morrow become a Tekulve-like bullpen arm, going 2-3 innings every few days?

Update: Um, scratch that. Apparently, Morrow WILL go back to the rotation. Tune in tomorrow for the next episode of “As the Morrow Turns.”

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

So, who’s the guy here? Howell picked up a save against the Royals on June 4th, and he’s by far the most intriguing option. J.P. has K’d 11.1 batters per nine innings, with a 2.37 FIP. Southpaw specialist Choate also picked up a save, but he likely isn’t a serious contender. Howell is the most talented guy, but might he be better utilized in his customary 4 and 5 out appearances than in a strict, rigid 9th inning role?

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

It’s something of an upset when a batter makes contact against Big Jon these days, and downright stunning when the opposition actually plates a run. Broxton coughed a run against the Padres last night, but still tallied the save (his 14th). He struck out 7 hitters in three innings this week, taking his astronomical K rate up to 14.7. For reference, that’s nearly 2 whiffs per nine innings higher than second-place Matt Thornton.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was a little wild this week, with 3 walks in 4 innings, but he locked up two more saves and punched out 5 batters as well. Bell has yet to give up a dinger in 25.1 innings (Thanks, PETCO!), and opponents have just a 13.8% line drive rate against San Diego’s stopper. Bell has a career-best 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings, the 8th-highest rate among relievers.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod chucked 3 scoreless innings this week, picking up two saves along the way. His 2.28 WPA trails only Broxton among all relievers, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.5%) is at its lowest rate since 2004. Rodriguez is generating a boatload of flyballs (52.2 FB%), but he’s also jamming plenty of batters with a career-high 20% infield/flyball rate.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

We’re now well into June, and Hoffman has still yet to give up a run in his Milwaukee threads. That’s 17 innings, for those of you scoring at home. His K/BB ratio is 15/1. A .175 BABIP and zero homers allowed help explain part of the run, but he’s also been pretty damned good. You could make the argument that his revered changeup has never been better, with a run value of +7.02 runs per 100 pitches (his best mark on record since 2002).

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls’ forearm tightness appears to be a little more troublesome than once thought. Said Qualls, “I don’t think it’s going to be something that’s going to just heal overnight.” If he has to miss any significant amount of time, either Tony Pena (3.07 FIP) or Juan Gutierrez (2.60) would likely get the call.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Just when it looked like Lidge was getting back on track, he blows back-to-back games against the Dodgers on June 5th and 6th (1.2 IP, 3 R) and then hits the DL with continued knee problems. It’s the same knee that Lidge had surgery on during the offseason.

With Lights Out knocked out, Madson will take the reins in Philly. His qualifications couldn’t be much stronger: the 6-6 righty has punched out 31 hitters in 28.1 frames and holds a 1.03 WPA. Madson sustained a spike in velocity from last summer, averaging a scorching 95 MPH with the pitch and backing it up with a devastating 83 MPH change as well as a 90 MPH cutter. Opponents are making contact with 78.2% of pitches thrown by Madson within the strike zone, one of the lowest rates among relievers, and his 33.5 Outside-Swing% ranks in the top 10 among ‘pen arms. If he’s available in your league? Run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero chucked four scoreless frames this week, though only one came in a save opportunity. He has still yet to serve up a long ball in 26 innings. Cordero’s whiff rate is down for a third straight season (12.22 K/9 in 2007, 9.98 in 2008, 8.31 in 2009), and hitters are making contact at Coco’s offerings 76.2% of the time (the highest rate we have going back to 2002). On the positive side, a lot of that increased contact is coming on pitcher’s pitches thrown outside of the strike zone: his contact rate on pitches in the zone is largely unchanged, while his outside-contact% has spiked over the past three years (35.1% in ’07, 53.9 in ’08, 62.3 in ’09).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected a save against the Astros on June 6th, but that was the extent of his work for the week as the Pirates drop four of their last five contests. Exhibit A of why velocity isn’t everything for a pitcher: Capps’s fastball is cracking the radar gun at a career-best 93.3 MPH, but his run value with the pitch is at a career-worst +0.46 (1.73 in 2008 and 2.22 in 2007).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street racked up back-to-back saves on June 8th (Cardinals) and 9th (Brewers), taking him up to 10 for the season. Huston’s 3.57 K/BB is well above last year’s pace (2.56). His fastball has been roasted (-1.41 runs per 100 pitches), but his oft-utilized slider (+3.44) and re-emphasized changeup (+2.23) are getting the job done.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins tossed two innings this week, with a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against Pittsburgh on the 6th and a 1 inning, 1 run appearance against the Cubs the following night while picking up the save. Overall, it’s hard to quibble with Hawkins’ work while filling in for Valverde. He has nearly a K per inning (23 in 24.2 frames), and his emphasis on a high-80’s cutter/slider has been wise. The pitch has been worth +2.43 runs per 100 pitches.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin made just one appearance this week, tossing a scoreless frame in mop-up duty against the Rockies on June 7th. The former Mariner, Phillie and Red has a 16/5 K/BB ratio in 22 innings, with 13 saves in 14 chances. A .178 BABIP suggests that his tiny 1.23 ERA will rise in the coming months.

Brian Wilson, Giants

San Fran’s mohawked stopper hasn’t surrendered a run since May 21st, a stretch of 7.1 innings in which he has punched out 8 batters but also walked four. Wilson’s walk rate is up for the third straight season (2.66 BB/9 in ’07, 4.04 in ’08, 4.23 in ’09), and his First-Pitch Strike% is down for the third consecutive campaign (61.3, 57.7, 55.4; the MLB average is 57.9). Wilson’s WPA checks in at a tepid -0.72.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano picked up the save last evening versus the Pirates, running his scoreless innings streak up to 10.2 in the process. Like it or not, Braves skipper Bobby Cox continues to use his two relief aces in situations that best call for their skills, be that the 8th or 9th frame of the ballgame. With lefty Nyjer Morgan, switch-hitter Delywyn Young and southpaw Adam LaRoche due up, Cox called upon Gonzalez in the 8th inning. Gonzo hasn’t shown any sort of platoon split during his career (he has actually been somewhat better vs. RHB), but Morgan (career .566 OPS vs. LHP) and LaRoche (.749) have.

Gonzalez (8 saves) and Soriano (5) will likely continue this time-share for the rest of the year. It might be frustrating to fantasy owners, but it’s probably what’s best for the Braves.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom hacked up 2 runs and 2 walks against the Giants on June 6th, then picked up a W in a 4-3 contest with the Cardinals last night. His bread-and-butter heater has been worth -0.84 runs per 100 pitches, a marked dip from the +1.08 mark posted in 2008. With Lindstrom showing such poor control, opponents are smartly laying off his pitches (41 Swing Percentage, 10 percent lower than last year).

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Well, Hanrahan has apparently been booted from the closer role for what feels like the tenth time this season. Taking his place will be MacDougal, he of frequent injuries and a career walk rate of 4.58 per nine innings. The lanky right-hander has handed out 9 walks in 9 frames for the Nats. He’s pretty darned similar to Hanrahan from a performance standpoint, possessing tantalizing mid-90’s heat but generally having no idea where it’s headed.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

By all accounts, Gregg is turning in a mediocre first season with the Cubs. The erstwhile Marlin is fooling his fair share of batters (9.95 K/9), but his walk rate is still over four and a half, with a 5.12 FIP and a WPA barely in the black (0.07).

Fortunately for Gregg, his control looks downright Maddux-esque compared to that of his set-up man. With a wicked (if wild) slider, Marmol has long made hitters look goofy. But his K rate is down for a third year (12.56 in ’07, 11.75 in ’08, 9.67 in ’09), and his walk rate has devolved from troublesome to untenable (27 free passes in 27 innings).

With the 8th and 9th inning dudes scuffling and the Cubbies bullpen doing sloppy work in general (27th in reliever FIP), could Guzman sneak his way into the competition? The perennial Venezuelan prospect has avoided the trainer’s table for a change, and he’s dealing: 25 whiffs and 8 walks in 27.2 innings. Blessed with mid-90’s gas and a devilish slider of his own, the 27 year-old bears watching. Guzman leads Chicago’s ‘pen arms in FIP and WPA.

One of the hardest things to figure out in baseball is if a declining older player has anything left. Fantasy managers are left wondering what the doctors are saying, if there are physical or mental ailments to blame, or if the player is just done. Two aging DHs are currently facing their own struggles, and though ZiPS is pessimistic about both, their cases are not the same.

David Ortiz – Much has been written about Big Papi, and R.J. Anderson did a great writeup just a couple weeks ago. Let this be an update, as Ortiz has been the subject of much publicized conjecture in just the last week. Brian Costello wondered aloud, in the New York Post, if Ortiz was really 33 as his birth certificate said. A scout cited that he was David Arias when he was drafted, and that therefore the chances of his birth certificate being accurate were “zero.” The same scout said that we are seeing a 40-year-old man flailing away when we watch Ortiz. Hyperbole aside, there’s no way Ortiz is falsifying his age more than a year or two in the wrong direction. He’s not going to halve his OPS in one year, even if he’s really 35 instead of 33. And yes, even if he is a big man.

Anderson did wonder if something was physically wrong with Ortiz, and that is always the main concern with aging sluggers. So the Red Sox doctors recently did a full checkup and famously gave Ortiz some eye drops and he responded that his dry eyes were not keeping him from performing at his peak. Some bat speed issues might be at play in his reduced contact rate in the zone – just look at how many fastballs pitchers are choosing to send his way. He’s seeing 4% more fastballs, which seems to suggest that pitchers think he’s not getting around.

But June has been kind to Ortiz, and his .300/.333/.500 slash line is reason for some optimism. Maybe the mental and psychological barriers were the barriers that held the most weight, and a rebound is in order. Since Anderson checked in with Ortiz, he’s swung at fewer pitches outside the zone, and his O-Swing % is regressing to the mean. Perhaps his other numbers will also begin regressing to the mean.

Travis Hafner – The ‘other’ big struggling DH was brought up in the comments under Anderson’s take on Ortiz, and for good reason. His sore shoulder had him currently on the DL and his manager wasn’t sure when he’d be back in town. Despite his good start to the season (.268/.358/.563 has to be counted as good in the face of his .628 OPS showing last year), ZiPS is pessimistic about his slugging and has him down for .264/.379/.491 and 11 home runs over the rest of the year.

Can we be more optimistic? I think so. First, the bad signs are not so bad. Hafner is reaching right now, and his 25.3% O-Swing% is a career high. Why is this not so worrisome? Even when Pronk was struggling last year, he only swung at 18.1% of pitches outside the zone. Where Ortiz’s reaching was getting worse, Pronk is only now, suddenly reaching. Also, he’s making contact on his reaches – his O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are at career highs as well.

He’s seeing the ball well, it seems. His BABIP is actually low (.298 this year, .320 career), and he’s putting the ball in play. He’s hitting a career high in fly balls (48%), and his HR/FB rate is back up to his pre-2008 levels (20%). His line drive percentage is a little low (17.3%), but his career rate is not great (19.9%), so this doesn’t seem incredibly out of line.

Sometimes we over-rate what we hear about a player’s physical problems, which might be the case for both of these big DHs. Yeah, they may not play every day, and yes they may be in decline. But in Pronk’s case, since he’s come back off the DL, he’s put up a double and a home run in eight at-bats in consecutive days. That’s what Hafner is anyway, and in a league of any depth beyond mixed leagues with short benches, owners should be happy with him this year. It’s not like he cost much.