This weekend’s Interleague Series featuring Toronto and Washington may not be a huge draw south of the border, but there are three interesting things to keep an eye on. Firstly, the Nationals were, of course, originally Canada’s first Major League Baseball team – the Montreal Expos. Secondly, it will be the first time that the two clubs have met up since Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi made some disparaging remarks in the media about (then Cincinnati Reds slugger) Adam Dunn, who now plays in Washington. Do you think Dunn will be locked in?

Thirdly, and most interestingly (as far as I am concerned), this series will feature appearances from five (out of the possible six) rookie starters. Toronto will send veteran Brian Tallet to the mound on Friday, but then he will be followed by rookies Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero. Interestingly, all three pitchers are left-handers. Washington will counter with three rookies this weekend: Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler (also a southpaw), and Shairon Martis. The Washington line-up is right-handed heavy (with the exception of Dunn and Nick Johnson) so the on-paper match-up goes to the Nationals.

Brett Cecil, 22, pitched fairly well in his first three Major League games this season. It was his fourth start that doomed him and sent him back to the minors. On May 20 in Boston, Cecil allowed 11 hits in 4.2 innings of work, along with two walks and five home runs. Overall, he has allowed 28 hits in 24.2 innings of work, while allowing seven homers and posting rates of 2.19 BB/9 and 6.57 K/9. His ERA is 4.38 but his FIP is 6.39. Cecil also has a ground-ball rate of 52%.

Ricky Romero has been a savior to the Jays’ rotation in 2009, despite missing time with an oblique strain (but what Jays pitcher hasn’t been injured this season). The 24-year-old former No. 1 draft pick has a 3.73 ERA (4.77 FIP) and has allowed 52 hits in 50.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 2.84 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.28 K/9. Romero has a ground-ball rate of 50%.

Jordan Zimmermann, 23, has been inconsistent this season, but his talent is obvious. In 57 innings, he has allowed 61 hits, while posting rates of 2.53 BB/9 and 9.47 K/9. His ERA is 5.37 but his FIP is just 3.79. He has a ground-ball rate of just 44.2%, which has been hurt by a line-drive rate of 25.0%.

Ross Detwiler, 23, has a 5.23 ERA, but once again a Nationals pitcher has a much lower FIP at 3.83. He has allowed 36 hits in 32.2 innings of work. He’s also posted a walk rate of 3.86 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.34 BB/9. Detwiler has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with just two homers allowed (0.55 HR/9).

Shairon Martis, 22, has pitched more than any other rookie pitcher in this series at 75 and he’s allowed just 69 hits. His rates, though, are not that good with a walk rate of 4.04 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 3.45 K/9. His ERA is currently 4.75, with a FIP of 5.14. He’s allowed eight home runs (0.85 BB/9). With a ground-ball rate of just 41.3%, Martis is constantly flirting with disaster thanks to his modest fastball (an average of 90 mph) and his spotty control.

The youth movement in Major League Baseball is in all its glory this weekend in Washington. In fact, the Jays organization actually has more rookies in its Major League rotation right now, than it does in triple-A Las Vegas. So who do you think will win the battle of the rookies – in both this series and in the years to come?

Coming into the 2009 season, the Cleveland Indians had to feel pretty confident about Jhonny Peralta. After all, the 6-2, 210 pound Dominican Republic native had averaged 2.75 Wins Above Replacement over the 2005-2008 seasons, including a 3.9 mark in 2008.

His once-leaden leather was showing improvement, as was his bat. While not scaling to the heights of his 2005 season (+25.1 Batting Runs), Peralta improved from -10.6 Batting Runs in 2006 to +2.7 in 2007 and +10.8 in 2008. Jhonny’s ISO rebounded from .128 in ’06 to .160 in ’07 and .197 in ’08. Entering his peak years (Jhonny turned 27 in May), Peralta looked like a good bet to turn in another above average offensive campaign:

2009 pre-season projections:

CHONE: .272/.343/.452
Oliver: .268/.328/.435
ZiPS: .267/.333/.440

Instead, Peralta has been an offensive drag. Through 250 plate appearances, Jhonny owns a sickly .252/.331/.338 line. His .086 ISO is way below his .162 career average. To put that figure into context, the immortal Willie Bloomquist has out-ISO’d Peralta by 11 points. Amazingly, Jhonny and Willie are in a heated race to see how homers more, with Peralta holding a slim two-to-one edge.

So what in the name of Chief Wahoo is going on here? Peralta is showing similar plate discipline, with a 9.8 BB% (9% career average) and an Outside-Swing Percentage of 24% (23.5% career average), so he’s not hacking his way to a sub-.670 OPS. Jhonny’s 25.7% K rate is also near his career norm (25.7%) and his BABIP is .331, so it’s not as though a bunch of balls put in play are finding gloves.

Peralta’s problem? He’s chopping the ball into the dirt like never before and getting jammed more frequently:

2009: 57 GB%, 26.7 GB%, 11.4 IF/FB%
Career Avg: 46.9 GB%, 33.5 FB%, 5.7 IF/FB%

Jhonny holds the 8th-highest groundball rate among all batters, sandwiched between a pair of middle infielders sporting new duds. However, Howie Kendrick (Salt Lake Bees) and Emmanuel Burriss (Fresno Grizzlies) probably aren’t too thrilled to be touring the Pacific Coast League.

Peralta has struggled badly with the heat in ’09, with a -1.12 run value per 100 fastballs seen. That ranks as the 15th-worst mark in the majors, and is well below his +0.49 career average. Jhonny has been an automatic out when pulling the ball this season (stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

2008: Pulled-RHB: .461 BAVG/.737 SLG (101 OPS+; one percent better than the league average in this category)

2009: Pulled-RHB: .216 BAVG/.333 SLG (-6 OPS+)

Not only is Peralta putting the ball in the air less often, but the flyballs he has hit have been about as threatening as a newborn kitten:

2008: .289 BAVG/.792 SLG (167 OPS+)
2009: .200 BAVG/.350 SLG (52 OPS+)

Peralta’s increased groundball rate and infield/fly percentage suggest that he’s a little tentative at the dish right now. He has swung at fewer pitches within the strike zone (67.7%, compared to 73% in 2008) while making contact with those pitches less often (84 Z-Contact% this season, 86.1% in 2008). If Jhonny is going to out-homer Wee Willie Bloomquist, he might have to let ‘er rip with more conviction.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 12.

Trevor Cahill has allowed three runs or less in six straight games and the rookie has had just two bad starts all season out of 14 games. He gets two home starts this week where he has pitched much better. In McAfee Coliseum, Cahill’s ERA is over half a run lower, his K/9 is nearly double and his WHIP is a fancy 1.184, compared to 1.753 on the road. Owned in less than three percent of ESPN leagues, Cahill is a nice pickup for this two-start week.

Aaron Cook in his last 11 games has a 6-2 record with a 3.18 ERA. Early in the year, the sinkerball pitcher had trouble getting grounders, as he was giving up more fly balls than normal. But in his last six games, Cook has induced 98 grounders compared to 42 fly balls. He is still having a little trouble with allowing HRs (16.2% HR/FB) but Cook has two road starts this week at Anaheim and at Oakland where he will face two of the three worst HR-hitting teams in the American League.

Francisco Liriano has gone seven straight games without a win. He has experienced some bad luck this year, which he has compounded with the highest walk and HR/9 rates of his career. He faces Milwaukee and St. Louis this week, two of the top four HR-hitting squads in the National League. The Brewers are also one of the most patient teams in the league, just six walks behind the league leader. Give Liriano the week off.

Scott Richmond is coming off his best outing of the season, in which he gave up just one run in eight innings while he fanned 11 batters. He has home starts this week against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. But Richmond struggles against LHB, who have an .894 OPS against him and have hit nine of the 10 HR he has allowed. Jay Bruce (15 HR vs RHP) and Laynce Nix (all 7 HR vs RHP) can go deep on any righty and Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are no fun, either. So keep Richmond on the bench this week.

Chien-Ming Wang has been the punch line to a bad joke through the entire season so far. But Wang is slowly working his way back into shape. In his last outing, he went five innings for the first time all year and his 91 pitches were a season-high. It was also his best start in getting his trademark ground balls as he induced 12 grounders compared to five fly balls. Wang gets two starts on the road this week, which might help just from a psychological standpoint. He is owned in 69 percent of CBS Sports leagues but is currently a starter in just 26 percent. I like him to finally crack the win column this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 12 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Zambrano, Greinke, Vazquez, Jackson, Dempster, Danks, Scherzer, Price, Kuroda, Pavano, Palmer, Uehara, Sanchez, A. Miller, Wellemeyer, Lannan, Snell, Suppan, Moyer, Harrison, Owings, Redding, Gaudin, Ortiz, Olseon.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 10 and how they did.

Anderson – Advised to start. 11 K, 10.24 ERA, 2.07 WHIP (2 starts)
Feldman – Advised to start. 3 K, 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP (2)
Happ – Advised to sit. 7 K, 7.36 ERA, 2.09 WHIP (2)
Pettitte – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 5.73 ERA, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to sit. 8 K, 8.71 ERA, 2.13 WHIP (2)

It’s a rainy Thursday across most of the baseball world. Look for delays and a few postponements. 13 games are scheduled. On to the links…

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse lists a few sell-high sluggers. The man at the top of his list? Adrian Gonzalez. “After hitting nine home runs in April and 11 in May, Gonzalez has only parked two in June,” writes Bardeen. “In fact, he hasn’t hit a home run since June 2nd when he capped off four straight days with a dinger. Since June 2nd Gonzalez has been walked 16 times and only has six base hits. That seems to be the new way to pitch to the Padres slugger, you walk him.”

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup especially likes Jason Frasor in this week’s “Waiver Wired” column. The right-hander has been tabbed to take over ninth-inning duties in Toronto with Scott Downs hitting the disabled list. Frasor has a 1.90 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 19/3 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings this season, leaving opposing hitters with a .184 batting average.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports points out that Alfonso Soriano has attempted “just two swipes since May 1.” The outfielder swiped 41 bags in 2006, 19 during an injury-shortened 2007, and 19 in 2008. He has just six through Wednesday. Perhaps his knee is still bothering him, or maybe he has decided to give up on the running game for good. Either way, it’s bad news for fantasy owners.

For those of you clamoring for more information on international prospects, the fellas over at RazzBall have taken a closer look at Junichi Tazawa and Dayan Viciedo. Tazawa is under Boston’s control, and Viciedo is a member of the White Sox.

Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com is disappointed in Adrian Beltre, who is way off his career pace in almost every category this season. With free agency looming in 2010, Saponara believes the third baseman might be trying too hard: “The numbers do support that theory as well. Beltre is only walking 3.7% of the time, a far cry from his 7% BB career average. He’s also seeing fewer pitches per at bat (3.44) than his career average (3.77) and swinging at over 37% of pitches outside the strike-zone. No wonder he has a higher ground ball percentage and 12 GIDP (grounded into double plays) when he had all of 11 last season.”

Have a question, comment or a link you’d like to share with the world? Shoot me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Brandon Snyder is only 22 years old, but he’s already come very close to being a first-round draft pick failure, after being selected in the 2005 draft out of a Virginia high school. Originally a catcher, Snyder was moved out from behind the plate and assigned to his new position of first base. Many scouts felt the right-handed hitter would never develop enough power to be an impact player at the position, especially after he hit just 36 home runs in his first four seasons, but those opinions are beginning to change. Now in double-A, Snyder has followed up a very solid 2008 season with a true breakout season. He’s currently hitting .349/.421/.604 with 19 doubles and 10 home runs and 45 RBI in 192 at-bats. His ISO has increased each of the past three seasons from .138 to .175 to .255. The high average is probably a side effect of a lucky .404 BABIP, but the power looks like it might be for real.

Drew Stubbs, 24, is another former first round pick (eighth overall in 2006) who has been dogged by doubt throughout his career. The athletic outfielder has always oozed tools but he’s had difficulty translating that potential to the field. High strikeout rates were one of Stubbs’ biggest issues but he’s made some improvement after starting out with a 30.5 K% in 2006. His rate so far this season is 20.9 K%, with a respectable walk rate of 12.5 BB%. Stubbs has raw power too, but he’s still learning how to tap into that with just two homers but 18 doubles in 196 at-bats this season in triple-A. He has also stolen 23 bases in 27 attempts. Defensively, he is a good center field with excellent lateral range.

The Rays organization has a reputation for producing some pretty good outfield prospects and Desmond Jennings is the next in line. The 22-year-old prospect had a breakout 2007 season but then missed most of the 2008 season due to an ill-timed injury. Fully healthy in 2009, Jennings is on fire once again – this time in double-A. He’s currently hitting .327/.403/.518 with six homers and 22 stolen bases in 245 at-bats. Jennings has also struck out just 14.3% of the time. He’s also a gifted center fielder.

You’d think the Cincinnati Reds’ minor league system would start to slow down after producing the likes of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto in the past few seasons, but the organization still has plenty of depth. At triple-A alone, the club has three relievers who could probably help a lot of MLB clubs right now in Josh Roenicke, Robert Manuel, and Pedro Viola. Each player in the trio was acquired by the organization through different means. Roenicke (whose brother Jason just made his season debut for the Jays’ low-A affiliate) was selected in the 10th round of the 2006 draft out of UCLA. The right-hander has posted solid numbers throughout his minor league career and has 54 saves in parts of four seasons. Roenicke, 26, has the stuff (a mid-to-high-90s fastball and good cutter) to be a useful MLB middle reliever. And we’ll find out soon enough. He was just recalled by the Reds last night.

Manuel, 25, was a non-drafted pitcher out of Sam Houston State University. He was signed by the Mets and traded to the Reds a year later for MLB pitcher David Williams. The right-hander has modest stuff but be just keeps getting results thanks to excellent command and control. He’s actually getting better as he ascends through the minors, having posted ERAs of 1.40 and 1.98 in the past two years in double-A and triple-A. He’s allowed just 81 hits in 123 innings during that time frame. Viola is the most interesting story of all. He originally signed with the San Francisco Giants as a position player but was released when he turned out to be older than he said. The Reds then took a flyer on him as a left-handed pitcher with a big-time fastball and strikeout slider. Despite being 25 already, he’s in just his third season in North America. Command and control continue to be his weaknesses.

The Giants organization has some pretty talented pitchers in its system so other players can sometimes get overlooked. Right-hander Kevin Pucetas has put up some solid career numbers despite having a below-average fastball. The pitcher works in the high 80s but he has plus command and excellent control (career walk rate of 1.8 BB/9). His changeup is a reliable out-pitch and he also utilizes two breaking balls. Pitchers like Mark Difelice and R.J. Swindle have proven that you don’t have to throw 95 mph – or even 90 mph – to get Major League Baseball hitters out. Prior to 2009, Pucetas had a 32-7 career record with an ERA of 2.34 in more than 340 pro innings. He’s continuing to thrive this season in triple-A so a big-league call may come sooner rather than later. The 24-year-old hurler has allowed 71 hits in 76.2 innings of work with rates of 2.27 BB/9 and 5.63 K/9. Pucetas has an outside shot as a No. 4 starter, but he’s probably earmarked for a middle relief role in the big leagues.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continued to bellow fire and destroy hitters city by city, picking up two saves against the Rangers on the 13th and 14th and then working a scoreless inning in a non-save chance vs. the A’s last night. Big Jon now has a mind-boggling 53 K’s in 33 innings, with a 0.97 FIP. To put that strikeout figure in perspective, Broxton has more K’s than starters Kyle Davies, Jarrod Washburn, Jeremy Guthrie and Andy Pettitte, despite working 40+ fewer frames. I know it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison (K rates are higher for relievers), but that’s still insane.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell made just one trip to the mound this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Angels on the 14th (a non-save situation). Heath’s K rate is up nearly two and a half per nine innings from last year (10.54 K/9 in ’09, 8.19 in ’08) and he has still yet to serve up a homer.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

In addition to participating in a bullpen brouhaha with Brian Bruney, K-Rod turned in a rough week at the office. Rodriguez blew a save against the Bombers on the 12th, then walked two while collecting a save against the O’s last night. He’s still nasty, but K-Rod’s contact rate has increased three years in a row (from 66 to 70 percent), while his first-pitch strike% has dipped from 57.2% in 2007 to 52.3% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hell’s Bells surrendered his first run of the season, taking a loss against the White Sox on June 14th. Hoffman then recovered to collect his 16th save of the year against the Indians the next night. Trevor’s 1.44 WPA ranks in the top 15 among relievers, and he holds a 17/2 K/BB in 20 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls hasn’t been himself as of late, coughing up 4 runs in his last 3.2 innings while trying to pitch through a forearm strain. He normally pounds the strike zone (53.4% zone percentage this year), but that figure has actually been brought down by a 45.6% showing in June. With the D-Backs buried in the standings, perhaps Qualls would be best served by taking a week or two off.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Lidge threw a pain-free bullpen session on Tuesday, and will likely begin a rehab assignment this weekend. In the meantime, Madson chucked 4 innings this week. He picked up a save against the Mets on the 11th, whiffed three Red Sox hitters the next night and pitched another scoreless frame versus the Sox on the 14th. He did, however, blow a save against the Jays last night, walking two in the process. Madson still has a 1.24 WPA and a 3.36 K/BB ratio for the year.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero only tossed one inning this week, with a scoreless appearance against the Braves last night (no save, though). He has hasn’t yielded a home run in 28 innings. Cordero’s K rate is down for the third straight year (from 12.22 K/9 in ’07 to 8.36 this year), and his contact rate has risen from 64.5% in 2007 to 76.8% in 2009.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected two saves this week, subduing the Braves on the 11th and the Tigers on the 14th. After an early-season bout of wildness, Capps has issued just one walk in six innings this month. His WPA still sits at -0.58 for the year, though.

Huston Street, Rockies

The Rockies have been on a tear, taking 11 straight ballgames before last night’s loss to the Rays. Street snagged two saves this past week, and his K/BB now sits at an impressive 32/8 in 27 innings. Huston has tossed a first-pitch strike 65.8 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde is back in action after a lengthy DL stint for a calf injury. Papa Grande got back into the swing of things with two non-save appearances against the venom less D-Backs on the 13th and 14th. He punched out 3 batters in the latter inning, and his fastball averaged 95 MPH over the two appearances.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin picked up 2 saves this week (on the 11th vs. the Marlins and the 13th vs. Cleveland), but he did surrender 5 hits in the process. Franklin has displayed sharp control (1.82 BB/9), but a few more base hits will likely fall in from here on out (his BABIP still sits at just .225, with an absurd 99% strand rate).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson got the save against Oakland on June 13th, but hasn’t worked since. The Giants stopper possesses a 96 MPH fastball which has been worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. His slider (-0.68)/cutter (-0.94) hasn’t been as dynamic, however.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzo got beat up last evening, surrendering four runs in a rain-soaked affair with the Reds. Soriano also had has issues the past week, giving up 2 runs and taking a loss vs. the Pirates on the 11th. Here’s how the co-closers match up in a few important categories:

FIP: 3.29 Gonzo, 2.24 Soriano

WPA: 0.95 Gonzo, 1.78 Soriano

K/BB: 2.64 Gonzo, 3.36 Soriano

While Soriano has been better, Gonzalez has appeared in more crucial situations (2.00 Leverage Index for Gonzo, 1.74 for Soriano).

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom tossed just one inning this week, picking up a save vs. Toronto on June 13th. With 19 walks in 25.1 frames, the former Mets prospect has seen his FIP inflate from 3.27 in 2008 to 4.51 in 2009.

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Not to be rude, but does it even matter who the closer is for the Nats? Washington has dropped 4 games in a row, sits thirty games under .500 for the year and has a -85 run differential that’s 14 runs worse than San Diego.

MacDougal holds the mostly ceremonial title of Washington’s closer, but he has walked 11 batters in 11.1 innings, with a 4.68 FIP. You’d have to be pretty desperate to venture here.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

Gregg chucked two scoreless innings in a non-save situation against Houston on the 12th, then threw another clean frame against the Twins the following night (non-save). It was a much-needed, quiet week from an off-season pickup who has often given Sweet Lou heartburn (4.75 FIP, with 44.5% of his pitches crossing the dish; the MLB average is 49).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up another run this week, against the Mets on June 12th. Mo’s ERA sits at 3.25 and his 0.88 WPA is merely good as opposed to great, but it’s hard to be terribly concerned about a pitcher with a 33/3 K/BB in 27.2 innings. If you want to be pessimistic, Rivera’s 83.8% contact rate is his highest mark going back to 2002, and the run value on his cutter this season (+0.85 runs per 100 pitches) is also his lowest since ’02.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim had an uncharacteristically bumpy week, blowing a save versus Cleveland on the 11th (stupid seagulls!) and coughing up a run and a homer against the Reds on the 13th (Ohio is not Mr. Soria’s favorite state). The Mexicutioner has been plenty nasty (14 K’s in 12.2 IP), but his control has been a little off: 6 walks with just 45.1% of his pitches crossing home plate (54.5% in 2008).

Joe Nathan, Twins

With 2 saves against the water-treading Cubs on June 12th and 13th, Nathan now holds a 4.83 K/BB ratio (8th among relievers) and is back in the double digits in terms of K’s per nine innings (10.3). Joe’s 31.8 Outside-Swing% is his highest we have going back to 2002.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is working on a seven-inning scoreless streak, and he has allowed just 1 hit in his last four appearances. Papelbon’s O-Swing% sits at 26.2%, below his 30.5% career mark. Hitters have hacked at 9 percent fewer of his offerings compared to last year, likely the result of Papelbon’s percent of pitches in the zone dropping from 54.5% in ’08 to 47.1% in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks blew a save and gave up a jack to Detroit’s Curtis Granderson on the 11th, then collected a save against the Brewers on the 14th. Bobby’s secondary offerings have been superb this season (+3.22 runs per 100 pitches on the slider, +1.71 on the curve), but his fastball (-0.96) hasn’t been as effective (+1.55 in ’07 and ’08).

Interestingly, the pitch is nearly 2 ticks faster than last year, but it has also shown nearly two additional inches of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters. Jenks’ problems have come primarily against lefties (.893 OPS, .575 vs. RHB). It could just be a coincidence, but perhaps southpaws are more comfortable at the plate, with most everything Jenks throws to them on the outside edge of the plate.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson will get any saves with Frank on the DL) , Rangers

Francisco was placed on the DL again, and he hopes to return to Texas within the next 10 days. In the meantime, Wilson will continue to get the call in save situations. He’s getting plenty of grounders (56.6%), but his K/BB ratio sits at a mundane 1.58 and his WPA (0.01) is just slightly in the black.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Unfortunately, Downs suffered some sort of lower body injury in the 10th inning of last night’s contest with the Phillies. Based on performance, Jason Frasor (2.54 FIP, 6.33 K/BB ratio) would be the logical guy to take over the closer’s role if Downs goes on the DL, but it’s hard to say if the Jays would revert back to B.J. Ryan for the moment. Ryan’s fastball is still MIA, with an average speed of 87.5 MPH in June.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has seemingly shook off Ziegler in the contest to close out games for Oakland, a happy development for fantasy owners everywhere. The 6-3 rookie (on pace to throw 105 innings) has punched out 10.54 batters per nine innings, with a 2.87 FIP. The former starter has used his three-pitch mix to great effect: his fastball (+1.39), cutter (+1.57) and curveball (+3.59) have all befuddled batters.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood worked 2 scoreless frame in non-save situations on June 11th and 12th, and hasn’t taken the mound since. Kerry’s hopping mid-90’s heater hasn’t been particularly effective in 2009, with a run value of -1.9 per 100 pitches (+0.75 in 2008).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got into just one game this week, notching his 17th save of the year against the Giants on the 15th. LA’s new closer hasn’t had a whole lot of success with his slurvy breaking ball this season (-1.87 runs per 100 pitches, +2.06 last season). With Fuentes locating just 45.3% of his offerings in the zone, opponents have cut their outside-swing% from 29.4% in 2008 to 23.6% this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, with a scoreless frame against the Braves in a non-save situation on the 13th. George has increasingly placed fewer pitches in the strike zone (55% in ’07, 50.1 in ’08 and 47.1 in ’09), but his O-Swing has also gone up for a third year (21.1 in ’07, 26.3 in ’08 and 29.7 in ’09).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney picked up a save against Pittsburgh on June 12th, but he hasn’t taken the hill since. He had been doing a better job of hitting his spots in April and May, but Rodney’s percentage of pitches thrown over the plate (49.9%) is just slightly above the 49% average now after a turbulent June (43.8 Zone%). On the positive side, his groundball rate (56.5%) is well above his 45.7% average since 2002.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

With Morrow playing Hamlet yet again (to start, or not to start, that is the question), the ’06 first-rounder out of Cal has returned to the rotation. That apparently clears the way for Aardsma to keep the closer’s role, but he’s still playing with fire by walking nearly 6 hitters per nine innings. As a flyball pitcher flanked by three outstanding fielders in a homer-suppressing park, Aardsma is in a good spot. But still, the sub-.240 BABIP and 87.1% strand rate just aren’t going to keep up.

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Izzy is sadly headed for Tommy John surgery , and he may well have thrown his last pitch in the big leagues. Howell appears to be the man for the moment, and he’s certainly the option that fantasy folks were hoping for. The converted starter supplements his mild mid-80’s fastball with an outstanding curve and change. Howell has whiffed 40 in 32.1 frames, with a 67.3% contact rate that ranks 6th among relievers.

In the “post-steroid” era, the idea is that careers will be shorter and production in a player’s late thirties will decline rapidly. Without conjecturing about the steroid use of these two older men, we can take a look at the numbers and see two guys that are seemingly sustaining decent levels of production despite their advancing years. Their last hurrahs should even continue – provided they stay off the DL (or the Pavano as those in New York may call it).

Jim Thome – Really, the only piece of bad news when it comes to the 38-year-old Thome is that he’s striking out more than he has since 2001. Striking out doesn’t do wonders for a man’s batting average – and Thome’s .256 batting average might scare some people off. But you don’t own Thome for his batting average, since it has been in decline for three straight years and his career number sits at .278 anyway.

Will the power continue? That is the big question. Amazingly, some of his secondary power numbers are above his career norms. Check his home run per fly ball percentage (30.0% this year, 27.8% career) and his line drive percentage (21.1% this year, 20.3% career). The only worry is that he’s hitting a high number of infield flies (12.5%), and the last time he cracked double digits in that department was his disastrous 2005 campaign with the Phillies (.207/.360/.352).

With everything else in line with his career numbers, Thome looks pretty safe. Keep an eye on his infield flies and as long as they trend toward his norms, you’ve got a safe geezer on your squad. Let him collect the long balls as long as he’s in uniform.

Gary Sheffield – Sheffield’s case is less cut and dry than Thome’s and his decline has been more precipitous over the past couple years. After his .225/.326/.400 disasterpiece last year, the Tigers had seen enough and let the 40-year-old go. They did this despite the fact that their current DH, Marcus Thames, has a .765 lifetime versus righties, compared to Sheff’s .898.

No matter. It seems that Manuel’s philosophy of running Sheffield out there until he found what he had lost worked. Now his starting right fielder is boasting a more than decent .270/.390/.482 and fantasy owners are wondering if he can continue his success.

First, the bad news. Despite his rocket bat speed, he’s never been a good line drive hitter (17.2% career) and he’s on a three-year decline that has exacerbated the situation. His current percentage (12.4%) may not sustain his current .283 BABIP, meaning his ZiPS RoS projection might be spot-on in terms of his batting average (.242). Certainly, the ‘old’ way of projecting BABIP (line drive rate plus .12) would suggest that he’s in for a decline in the batting average department.

One thing that the old method does not account for, however, is speed. His current 4.5 speed score puts him in speedy company – right ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Emmanuel Burriss. Normally, his 53.1% groundball percentage (the highest of his recent career) would be seen as a negative. But perhaps Sheffield is relying on his decent speed and actually benefiting from the increased grounder rate.

One this is for certain – he’s not your typical aging slugger. After all, he stole 22 bases just two years ago. Here’s thinking that his speed will help him beat his batting average projections from here on out, and that Sheff will keep cooking at this rate.

Hopefully you were able to pick up Scott Baker and trade Josh Outman last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Juan Rivera – Playing time has been an issue throughout Rivera’s career, but he seemingly has nailed down the starting job in left field this year. His ISO is nearly identical to last season; the big thing for Rivera this year is a more normal BABIP. After suffering through a .242 mark last year, he has a .313 one this season. Updated ZiPS shows him finishing the year with a .297 AVG and 18 HR and that may be selling him short in homers. Owned in less than 11 percent of ESPN leagues, Rivera is a nice cheap option for AVG and HR.

John Danks – Owners were expecting more than a 4-5 record with a 4.81 ERA in the middle of June. In his last three outings, he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. But Danks is on a career-best strikeout pace, with an 8.15 K/9. Also, he has been a little unlucky with a 14.1 percent HR/FB rate. Danks’ ERA is already 0.36 runs above his FIP and with a little better HR rate going forward, he could turn in an ERA under four for the remainder of the year.

Stephen Drew – It has been a bad start of the year for most of the top shortstops and it seems there is a different SS on the “acquire” part of this list each week. A hot streak the last two weeks has gotten Drew’s overall numbers near respectability. His overall peripherals look okay. However, the one area where he has room for improvement is his numbers in Chase Field, which for most other hitters is a great hitting park. Drew has a home BABIP of .269, which has led to a .247/.318/.433 slash line. In 2008, Drew had a .321/.361/.559 slash line in his home park.

John Smoltz – After five rehab starts in the minors, Smoltz is on the verge of being called up to the Red Sox. He has gone six innings in each of his last two outings, although he was roughed up in his last start, when he allowed four runs. Overall, the minor league numbers look good, not great. But Smoltz is a nice lottery ticket if he is a free agent in your league. He has a history of being very good when healthy and there is really no reason not to add him to your bench if he is out there on the waiver wire and see if he can hold up for the remainder of the season.

Alberto Callaspo – If you need a middle infielder, you could do far worse than picking up Callaspo from the waiver wire. He probably is not going to give much in power, but the .300 AVG looks legitimate. His .330 BABIP looks high, but it matches the .327 he put up last year. In his last two full seasons in the minors he posted marks of .346 and .353 in the category.

Trade

Jason Kubel – At age 27, it should not be surprising that he is on target for a career year. But he is unlikely to maintain his current pace. The 17.5 percent HR/FB rate has led to a career-high .238 ISO, while he has never topped .200 previously. Kubel’s .349 BABIP is easily a career high, topping even his minor league numbers in the category. His SO/BB numbers and batted ball profile are similar to last season, indicating that perhaps some regression is right around the corner.

Max Scherzer – In his last two outings, Scherzer has gone 12.2 innings without allowing a run. He also got to pitch in Petco and against the Giants in those two games. His strikeout potential will always make him attractive to other owners, but it is hard to get excited about a guy who has a 5.73 ERA in his home park. Scherzer’s FIP is slightly higher than his ERA and his strand rate checks in at 79.2 percent. Rest of Season ZiPS sees a couple of more wins, but basically the same pitcher he has been the first part of 2009. If you can find an owner eager due to his strikeouts and recent performances, look to make a deal.

Bobby Abreu – It may be a little late to maximize his value, but Abreu is still on pace for 88 RBIs and 41 SB. But at this point he will be lucky to crack double digits in HR. The AVG is good but not great and he will need to maintain both that and the SB pace to make up for the lack of power. Abreu’s combination of skills will work for some teams but that power from an outfielder will be an albatross for many owners, especially since he was counted on for 15-20 HR at the beginning of the year.

Trevor Hoffman – One of the great stories so far this year has been the performance of Hoffman. But he has yet to give up a HR, has a 92.3 percent strand rate and a .218 BABIP. He has an outstanding 16 saves in 20 games. Shop him hard to teams looking for saves before the bottom falls out.

Adam Jones – There is a lot to like with Jones and hopefully if you deal him now you will get a nice return. But he also has a .372 BABIP and a 21.8 percent HR/FB rate, neither of which are likely to last. One of the hidden keys to Jones’ success this year has been the elimination of infield popups. Last year he had an IFFB% of 14.5 and in two previous partial seasons it was 17.6 and 13.3 percent. This year his mark checks in at 1.8 percent. Since infield flies result in an out nearly 100 percent of the time, this is a significant improvement for Jones. But it is another mark likely to regress going forward.

Happy Monday, everybody. It’s a slow day in the baseball world with just two games on tap. On to the links…

MVN’s Fantasy Outsider reviews Andrew McCutchen’s fantasy value. The 22-year-old is batting .327/.377/.429 with a double, two triples and seven RBI in 53 plate appearance. He’s also nabbed two bases in two opportunities.

Sergio Gonzalez of CBSSports.com has this week’s team-by-team “Fantasy Hitting Planner.”

Fantasy Baseball Junkie takes note of several non-closing relievers worth grabbing for fantasy purposes. Among the names: Kiko Calero, Mark DiFelice and Matt Thornton.

Tommy Rancel of DRaysBay examines Ben Zobrist’s electrifying start to the season. The 28-year-old utilityman is batting .309/.424/.667 with 13 home runs, 38 RBI and eight stolen bases. He’ll have to maintain quite a pace, but there’s a chance he could become the first player in franchise history to join the 30/30 club.

Rotoworld’s Matthew Pouliot comes through with his weekly American League and National League notes columns.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports examines Tampa Bay’s bullpen situation. J.P. Howell picked up his third save of the season on Sunday. He and Randy Choate are likely to share ninth-inning duties moving forward.

Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority thinks fantasy owners should keep an eye on Sean Rodriguez, who slugged .644 at Triple-A Salt Lake before the Angels called him up on Friday.

Knox Bardeen of AOL Fanhouse suggests a few starting pitchers worth picking up for fantasy owners low on strikeouts.

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