Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 13.

Brian Bannister gets two home starts this week, where he has an ERA over a full run lower than his road mark. The second start of the week also comes during a day game, where Bannister has performed better throughout his career. He has a lifetime 15-6 record in day games.

Kenshin Kawakami has a 3.59 BB/9 mark this season. But in his last seven games he has allowed just 12 walks in 40.2 innings and has thrown 62 percent of his pitches for strikes. In that span he has a 2.88 ERA. Kawakami is day-to-day after getting hit in the shoulder by a line drive in his last outing. Monitor his status and get him active if it looks like he will take the mound this week.

Brandon Morrow has had three starts to stretch out his arm. But this will be a good week to get him out of the lineup as he has to fly cross country to take on the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road. The lineups of those two teams are known for being patient and working the count, not a good sign for a pitcher with a 5.93 BB/9 ratio.

Fernando Nieve has helped keep the Mets alive with wins in each of his three starts. He has an unimpressive 1.44 K/BB ratio and a 91.8 percent strand rate. But his FIP is a solid 3.88 and Nieve has a 13.6 percent LD rate. This year in the minors, he had a 14 percent LD rate. So far, the Mets’ bats have come alive with Nieve on the mound, as they have scored five, six and 11 runs in his three starts. He squares off this week versus Braden Looper and Jamie Moyer, two pitchers with an ERA above five for the season, so his teammates should keep the runs coming for him.

Randy Wolf started the season strong but has had a June swoon. This month he is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA and only 13 Ks in 26.2 innings. Wolf takes on the red-hot Rockies and the Padres this week. Normally a road start in Petco is a good thing for a pitcher’s numbers, but Wolf is 5-6 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.348 WHIP in 13 lifetime games in Petco after he was undefeated in four starts in Qualcomm Stadium.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Lincecum, Haren, Lester, Carpenter, Lilly, Oswalt, Chamberlain, Floyd, Garza, Harden, Saunders, Jimenez, Nolasco, Duke, Porcello, Blackburn, Wolf, R. Johnson, Halladay (set to be activated from the DL on Monday – get him in the lineup), Arroyo, Blanton, Pavano, Ohlendorf, Padilla, Looper, Richard, Hochevar, Hill, Thompson, Moehler, G. Gonzalez, Geer, Burns, O’Sullivan, Stammen, LeBlanc, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 11 and how they did.

Correia – Advised to start. W, 12 K, 1.84 ERA, 0.34 WHIP (2 starts)
Meche – Advised to start. W, 7 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to sit. W, 12 K, 5.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP (2)
Wakefield – Advised to start. W, 6 K, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP (2)
Zito – Advised to start. W, 11 K, 7.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future.

Tyler Colvin: You have to give a break to this former (surprise) No. 1 draft pick by the Cubs. He had a pretty lousy approach at the plate, which resulted in walk rates of 6.0% and 3.0% early on in his career. After a lousy double-A season in 2008, the organization demoted him to high-A to begin the year. Still only 23, the outfielder changed his ways to a degree and increased his walk rate to 10.4%, although he hit just .250/.326/.357 with just one homer in 112 at-bats. Colvin was rewarded with a trip back to double-A, where he is hitting .319/.342/.652 with six homers in 69 at-bats. The bad news, though, is that he’s reverted to his old ways and has a walk rate of 4.2%. Toronto’s catching prospect J.P. Arencibia should be paying attention.

Kila Ka’aihue: Despite breaking out in a big way in 2008, Ka’aihue failed to impress the Royals’ management, which went out and acquired Mike Jacobs from the Marlins, who is now hitting .231/.314/.431 with 10 homers in 216 at-bats. And he’s doing it for $3.5 million. Ka’aihue, on the other hand, hit 38 homers last year in the minors and has a triple-A line of .273/.417/.498 with 10 homers in 227 at-bats and could be doing that in the Majors at the league minimum. The 25-year-old first baseman has also posted an ISO above .200 for the past three years. Right now, he’s a wasted resource. As of late, you don’t hear quite as much love expressed for Royals’ GM Dayton Moore as you did this past off-season.

Chris Carter (Oakland): Another powerful first baseman, Carter (not to be confused with the one in Boston) has made a lot of improvements to his game over last year – and that’s saying a lot considering he hit 39 homers with 104 walks. Although he’s not hitting for as much power, Carter has reduced his strikeout rate, while also increasing his batting average over last year when he hit .259 in high-A. This year in double-A, he has a line of .292/.396/.496 with 11 homers and 23 doubles in 284 at-bats. The 22-year-old prospect is probably less than a year away from helping out at the MLB level.

Michael Taylor: The Phillies organization has to be ecstatic with the development that Taylor has made over the past two seasons. A good, but not great, player at Stanford University, Taylor exploded in 2008 and hit .341/.408/.553 with 19 homers combined between two A-ball affiliates. In double-A in 2009, the 6’6” 250 lbs outfielder is hitting .340/.399/.579 with 13 homers in 247 at-bats, proving last year was no fluke. He’s even stolen 11 bases in 15 attempts. The 23 year old is a bit of an unusual prospect – not unlike San Diego’s Kyle Blanks.

Jarrod Parker: Another first-round prep pitching gem from the 2007 draft, had a nice debut season in 2008. His stuff has been even crisper in 2009 and he was promoted to double-A from high-A after just four starts (0.95 ERA, 12 hits in 19 IP). At double-A, the right-hander has been a little more hittable with 51 hits allowed in 47.1 innings of work. He also has a walk rate of 4.18 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.32 K/9. Only 20, Parker is holding his own at a level dominated by 23 year olds. With a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and improvements being made on the secondary pitches, Parker could develop into a No. 2 starter, if not a No. 1, which will be good news for the Arizona organization if ace Brandon Webb has to undergo shoulder surgery.

Marc Rzepczynski: A senior draft pick out of UC Riverside in 2007, this southpaw has improved with each minor league step he’s taken. Not only does Rzepczynski strike out his fair share of batters (almost 10.0 K/9 in his three-year career), the hurler also gets a mind-boggling number of groundball outs (career 64.6 GB%). His fastball is more like a bowling ball that can touch 92 mph and he also has a good slider and sinking (of course) changeup. With all the pitching injuries in Toronto, Rzepczynski could be up before the end of the season. His ultimate ceiling is probably that of a No. 3 starter.

Travis Wood: Wood is a perfect example of why you never give up on a good arm. The left-hander is a former second-round pick out of high school from 2005. He’s battled injuries and inconsistencies. Last year in 17 double-A starts, Wood posted a 7.09 ERA and allowed 91 hits and 48 walks in just 80 innings. This year, though, things have clicked again and he’s leading the minors in ERA with a 1.27 mark (2.82 FIP) in 15 starts. He’s allowed just 62 hits in 92 innings, along with a walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.63 K/9. Only 22, Wood has allowed just one homer this year.

Kasey Kiker: The club’s first-round selection out of high school in the 2006 draft, Kiker sometimes gets lost in the shuffle with all the other great prospects in the Rangers’ system. The left-hander is having another solid year, this time in double-A, with a 3.25 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 64 hits allowed in 72 innings. He also has a walk rate of 4.63 BB/9 and 8.25 K/9. Only 5’11” 185 lbs, Kiker could eventually move to the bullpen, where his fastball has hit 95-97 mph in shorter stints.

Last evening, Cardinals righty Joel Pineiro put on a pitching clinic that would make Roy Halladay look downright inefficient by comparison. Tossing exactly 100 pitches in a complete game shutout against the Mets, Pineiro pounded the zone for 62 strikes while generating an absurd 22 groundball outs. We’re not yet half way through the 2009 season, yet the former Mariner and Red Sock has already eclipsed his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total for the last three years combined. From 2006-2008, Pineiro accumulated a total of 2.1 WAR. In ’09, the 30 year-old is already up to 2.5 WAR. That figure places him 13th among all starters.

How has Pineiro gone from roster flotsam to an important member of the Cardinals rotation? By calling upon a bowling ball-like sinker that has opposing batters chopping the ball into the dirt an astonishing 61.3% of the time (Pineiro’s career GB rate is 47.5%). That’s the highest rate of worm killers in the major leagues.

Pineiro’s fastball had long been a below-average offering. According to Fan Graphs’ run value pitch data, Pineiro’s heater has been worth -0.64 runs/100 pitches since 2002. And if anything, that’s understating the pitch’s lack of effectiveness: his fastball was worth -1.48 runs/100 in 2006, -1.19 in 2007 and -1.57 in 2008. In 2009, Pineiro’s fastball has a run value of +0.88 per 100 tosses, a dramatic reversal.

Looking at Pineiro’s Pitch F/X data, the change in his fastball has been dramatic. Take a gander at the horizontal and vertical movement of the pitch over the past three seasons (X is horizontal movement- a negative number indicates movement in on the hands of a right-handed batter. Z is vertical movement. The lower the Z figure, the more downward break on the pitch compared to a ball thrown without spin):

2007: -4.3 X, 9.6 Z
2008: -5.5 X, 7.2 Z
2009: -7.0 Z, 5.3 Z

Pineiro sacrificed fastball speed (from 91 to 88 MPH) for movement, gaining nearly three inches of tailing action in on righties with over 4 more inches of sink. Pineiro has also whipped out an even livelier sinker at times. Pitch F/X shows him throwing a two-seamer 18% of the time, with 9.3 inches of break in on right-handed batters and just 3.7 inches of vertical movement.

The Puerto Rican native is missing next to no lumber (3.88 K/9, the fourth-lowest rate among qualified starters), but he has compensated with nearly spotless control on top of the grounders. Pineiro has issued just 1.17 walks per nine innings, the third-lowest figure among starters. He’s getting ahead 0-and-1 or inducing contact from the get-go: Pineiro’s 66.1 First-Pitch Strike% is well above the 58% MLB average and places fifth among starters.

Joel Pineiro is certainly not a sexy name among fantasy players, given the paucity of strikeouts that he generates. But that doesn’t mean he should be ignored, either. He’s a fundamentally different pitcher than the guy who took the hill in Seattle and Boston, unleashing a nasty sinker, generating weak contact and walking next to no one. Whether he can continue to get this many grounders while issuing so few walks remains to be seen, but Pineiro’s sinker gives him the chance to enjoy a nice second act to his career.

(Quick scheduling note: the “Closer Report”, which has been appearing on Wednesdays, will now be posted on Fridays. Sorry for any inconvenience.)

Hopefully you were able to pick up John Danks and trade Bobby Abreu last week. But even if you stood pat there are still plenty of acquisition targets and trade bait guys out there for you. So, here are five guys to pick up and five guys to move.

Acquire

Lance Berkman – It has been a disappointing season for Berkman so far, as he has failed to keep pace with last year in four of the five fantasy categories. Surprisingly, HR is the one category he is currently outperforming last year, as he has both a slightly higher FB rate and HR/FB mark than in 2008. It was unrealistic to expect him to match last year’s career best in SB and R. But his AVG and RBI numbers have been disappointing. But Berkman has just a .248 BABIP (he’s never been below .303 since becoming a full-time player). The past two years Berkman has been a different player before and after the All-Star break. There is a strong possibility we will see that play out for a third straight season as he should experience regression with his BABIP, leading to a better average and more R and RBI.

Cole Hamels – Few imagined that Hamels would be sitting with just four wins and a 4.24 ERA after 13 games but that is where we are. However, Hamels has Quality Starts in three of his last four outings. His K/9 and BB/9 are both improved over last year. Hamels has been dinged by the long ball and is suffering from a .355 BABIP. His FIP is slightly lower than it was last season and is 60 points lower than his current ERA. RoS ZiPS sees him getting eight wins and a 3.60 ERA from here on out, making him a nice buy candidate.

Vernon Wells – Coming into the season the big question with Wells was could he stay healthy. So far, the answer has been yes. But while he’s been a regular in the lineup, his production has been a disappointment. Wells has been hitting for neither AVG nor power. His FB% is a normal 40.3 percent but he is hitting only 5.8 percent HR/FB, compared to a career average of 12.1 percent. Also, his BABIP checks in at just .266. Wells is finally showing signs of life with a modest six-game hitting streak, with three multi-hit games. Hopefully, this is the beginning of an extended hot streak for him.

Javier Vazquez – Year in and year out, probably no pitcher confounds those who carefully monitor statistics more than Vazquez. Currently, he has a brilliant 5.85 K/BB ratio, a 0.91 HR/9 mark, a 1.05 WHIP and a losing record. At least this year Vazquez is able to translate his fine peripherals into a good ERA. Given his history, there is no guarantee that he will get more wins from here on out, but even if he does not, Vazquez is still a fine contributor in three categories and worth investigating if his current owner is fed up with him.

Daniel Murphy – All the injuries suffered by the Mets this year have helped Murphy keep regular playing time, despite his poor start with the bat. Last year in the majors he had a .386 BABIP and a 33.3 percent LD rate. This year he has an 18.6 percent LD rate and a .265 BABIP. There is room for growth in his AVG and Murphy has displayed more HR pop this year than previously. With the uncertainty surrounding Carlos Delgado’s return, Murphy is likely to have at least another month of regular ABs for his BABIP to stabilize.

Trade

Brad Hawpe – Throughout his major league career, Hawpe has used above-average BABIP to post good AVG and solid HR numbers. This year he has a .389 BABIP and a .335 AVG, which is 47 points above his career AVG. And even with that elevated AVG, Hawpe has a career-best .276 ISO. Either Hawpe has moved into elite company or the time has come to sell high on him. I am banking on the latter.

Dan Haren – Throughout the off-season, I encouraged everyone to draft Haren. So, I feel a little bad about declaring him a trade candidate now. But he has a 0.82 WHIP (the lowest mark in the majors for qualified hurlers), a .238 BABIP (again, the lowest mark in the majors for qualified hurlers) and an 86 percent strand rate (the second-best mark). Haren should remain an elite pitcher the rest of the season but his trade value will probably never be higher.

Adrian Gonzalez – According to ESPN, Gonzalez is on a pace for 55 HR this season. If he keeps that up it would be a mistake to trade him. But Gonzalez has a HR/FB rate of 29.5 percent, which dwarfs last year’s career-best 20.7 percent. Also, his .326 ISO is 95 points above last year’s career-best mark. Here is another guy we are trying to sell at the height of his value who will nevertheless be a very productive player the rest of the season.

Ted Lilly – The past three seasons, Lilly has been very good for W and K but with his ERA and WHIP (two of the three years) dragging him down somewhat. So far this year, Lilly sits with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, both of which would be career-best marks. He has a lifetime 3.26 BB/9 mark and this year it stands at 1.96 so far. And his BABIP checks in at .256, 30 points below his career average. He is still likely to finish with 15 W and 175 K but both the ERA and WHIP figure to rise significantly the rest of the season.

Alexei Ramirez – A brutal start has dragged Ramirez’ overall numbers down but he has been hot in June with a .280 AVG and five HR so far this month. Owners were bullish on Ramirez, giving him an ADP of 70 (just a few spots behind Gonzalez). They were expecting him to build on last year’s numbers but instead Updated ZiPS has him merely repeating or falling short of last year’s fantasy output. Use his hot June to sell now and minimize the damage.

“I don’t believe that on-base percentage stuff. That’s overrated to me. If you get hits, you’ll be on base. That’s what it’s about.”

– Brandon Phillips, 3/1/2009 to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer

In some respects, the above quote perfectly crystallized Brandon Phillips‘ early major league career. It may be hard to remember now, given that Cliff Lee has a Cy Young award on his mantle and Grady Sizemore has established himself as one of the most valuable center fielders in the game, but Phillips was the principal prospect acquired by the Indians in the June 2002 Bartolo Colon swap. The North Carolina prep product received his first extended look with Cleveland in 2002, at the age of 22. Walking just 3.6 percent of the time and whiffing 20.8%, Phillips struggled to keep his head above water while batting .208/.242/.311 in 393 plate appearances.

The Indians decided to take a step back with the club’s prized youngster, letting him spend the better part of the next two seasons at AAA Buffalo. Phillips wasn’t bad by any means, but he didn’t make much progress in terms of controlling the strike zone:

2004: .303/.358/.430, 8.4 BB%, 10.7 K%
2005: .256/.326/.409, 8.4 BB%, 19.4 K%

Since being shipped to Cincinnati in April of 2006 (Phillips was out of options, and the Indians were out of patience), Phillips has posted wOBA’s of .331 in ’06, .354 in 2007 and .324 in 2008. His walk rates over those three seasons were 6.1, 4.8 and 6.5, respectively. Phillips’ strikeout rates hovered right around 16 percent.

In 2009, Phillips is turning in his best season yet, with a .360 wOBA and a powerful .279/.350/.502 line in 264 PA. While Cincy’s second baseman might have shown disdain for On-Base Percentage this spring, you sure wouldn’t know it from examining his plate approach this season.

Phillips has upped his walk rate considerably this year, drawing a free pass 10.2% of the time. The soon-to-be 28 year-old chased about 34 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone over the 2007-2008 seasons, well above the MLB average that hovers around 25 percent. This season, Phillips has ventured out of the zone only 27.5 percent of the time. After taking a hack at nearly 55 percent of pitches seen over the ’07 and ’08 seasons (the MLB average is about 45 percent), Phillips has cut that number down to 49.2% in 2009.

This newfound discipline is a great sign for Phillips, as opposing pitchers have increasingly given him fewer pitches within the zone:

Phillips’ percentage of pitches seen within the strike zone:

2006: 55.2%
2007: 53.2%
2008: 49.9%
2009: 48.3%

(the MLB avg. in 2009 is 49.1 percent)

As Phillips garnered a reputation as a free-swinger, pitchers became increasingly hesitant to toss him a pitch in the zone. And why not take that approach? If the guy is likely to lunge at a fastball off the plate or a curve in the dirt, then why take the risk of giving him a meatball?

Phillips’ enlightened plate approach has also helped him in the contact department. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 10.9%, which ranks as the 20th-lowest mark among qualified hitters. The 6-0, 195 pounder boasts a career-best .223 ISO, fourth among qualified second basemen.

Couple Phillips’ power and slick leather with less cuts taken at pitcher’s pitches, and you have one of the most valuable up-the-middle players in the majors: with 2.3 Wins Above Replacement, Phillips trails only part-time 2B Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler among those who man the keystone position. Phillips might not believe in all this…OBP stuff. But, he has really honed his strike zone control in 2009, making him a truly dangerous hitter.

It’s always exciting when an organization promotes its top prospect, and that’s just what has happened in San Diego with the promotion of LF/1B Kyle Blanks. However, enthusiasm should be tempered for the 6’6” 280 lbs rookie, whose raw power will be muted by his home ballpark.

Yes, he’s probably almost ready for the Majors from an offensive standpoint. This season, Blanks hit .283/.393/.485 with 12 homers in 233 at-bats at triple-A. He did, though, see his strikeout rate increase from 18.3 K% to 27.0 K% over the past year. Blanks’ walk rate rose five percent. His track record is good throughout his minor league career. He drove in more than 100 runs in both 2007 and 2008 and hit more than .300 in each of those seasons. Blanks’ career line is .304/.393/.505 in parts of five minor league seasons.

Defensively at his new position of left field, Blanks makes other questionable fielding converts like Matt LaPorta and Brett Wallace look like Adam Everett or Elvis Andrus. His range is… limited, to be kind. At first base, though, he actually shows good athleticism for a player his size and actually has the potential for some above-average defense.

Unfortunately, the presence of Adrian Gonzalez at first base makes it highly unlikely that Blanks, 22, will play regularly at the position any time soon. However, given how much Gonzalez’ value has risen this season – and given the utter hopelessness of the big-league club – San Diego would probably be smart to listen to offers for the incumbent’s services. And that may very well be why he has been promoted to the big-league club with just a month to go before the trading deadline.

Overall, Blanks is worth keeping an eye, but don’t expect much fantasy baseball value from him in 2009. Like Gonzalez, his offense will be much more potent on the road than it will be at home in San Diego.

Stock Up

Matt Cain, Giants

One month ago, I noted that Cain had posted middling peripherals to start the 2009 season, with his ERA far surpassing his FIP. Since that point, the 24 year-old has pitched up to his capabilities, blowing opposing batters away to the tune of a 30/10 K/BB ratio in 28.1 frames during the month of June. Cain’s K and walk ratios are now right in line with his career totals: 7.23 K/9 (7.61 career) and 3.52 BB/9 (3.76 career). The 6-3, 245 pounder is getting the job done with his 92 MPH fastball (+1.44 runs per 100 pitches) and 86 MPH changeup (+2.90).

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Tulo posted OPS marks in the low-.700’s in April and May, the product of a low Batting Average on Balls In Play (.225 BABIP in April, .262 in May). The Long Beach State Product has demolished pitchers to the tune of a 1.073 OPS with 5 homers in June (.303 BABIP), as the rolling Rockies creep into wild card contention. Tuloitzki’s 15.1 LD% is about 5 points lower than last season, but he’s arguably enjoying his finest offensive season yet. The 24 year-old’s walk rate is a career high 13.5%, and his .213 ISO is also a career best. Tulowitzki’s flyball percentage is up to 45.3% (38.5% career average), a positive indicator in the power department.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants

A switch-hitting, ambidextrous fellow with the ability to passably man three positions, Sandoval is fast becoming one of the most enjoyable players to watch. “Kung-Fu Panda” might not fit into a neat archetype or frame of reference, but he’s turning in one heck of an age-22 season.

A noted free-swinger, Sandoval has made some gains in the plate discipline department: his walk rate is up to 6.4% (2.7% last year), with his Outside-Swing% falling from 53.8% in ’08 to 46% this season. That’s still 21.2 points above the major league average and is surpassed only by teammate Bengie Molina among all qualified hitters, but Sandoval does not need to be a walk machine to be a highly effective hitter. Blessed with great hand-eye coordination and contact skills, Pablo has a reasonable K rate (15 percent), has made contact with about 3 percent more pitches than the major league average and boasts a .205 ISO.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox

Victimized by a Boston defense that has tumbled from 5th in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2008 to 29th in 2009, Beckett had a .364 BABIP during the month of April. He also didn’t control the zone as well as he usually does during the opening month of the season (1.94 K/BB), resulting in a grisly 7.22 ERA. Beckett’s BABIP is down to .309 now, and he has a 3.56 K/BB ratio over the past two months. After getting himself into hitter’s counts all too frequently in April, Josh has painted the corners in recent starts:

April: 43.5 Zone%, 60.3 First-Pitch Strike%
May: 47.4 Zone%, 63.1 First-Pitch Strike%
June: 54.4 Zone%, 68.5 First-Pitch Strike%

(the MLB averages are 49.1 for Zone% and 58 for F-Strike%; Beckett’s career averages are 53.3% and 61.8%, respectively)

Hunter Pence, Astros

During the offseason, I discussed Pence’s proclivity for chasing pitches off the plate in 2008. Hunter fished at 31.1 percent of offerings outside of the zone, leading to a 6.3% walk rate. Pence’s OBP fell to .318, as the batting average spike he enjoyed in 2007 (.322, with a .378 BABIP) came back down to earth (.269 AVG, with a .303 BABIP).

Pence is again garnering some good fortune on balls put in play (.364 BABIP), which has led to a .331 average. However, he has made some major strides in terms of controlling the zone. His rate of free passes taken has nearly doubled (11.9%), as his O-Swing% has fallen to 26.8%.

Pence wasn’t a particularly good hitter against sliders in 2007 (-0.50 runs per 100 pitches) or 2008 (-0.02), so pitchers threw him the pitch nearly a quarter of the time over those seasons. Advance scouts might need to file a new report on Hunter: hurlers are still feeding him plenty of sliders (26.9%, the third-highest percentage in the bigs), but Pence is pummeling the pitch for a +3.07 run value per 100 pitches. That’s the 13th-highest rate among qualified batters. Houston may be wallowing in mediocrity, and the future looks rather bleak with a fallow farm system, but Pence is looking like a long-term building block.

Stock Down

Dave Bush, Brewers

Bushwhacked: the Milwaukee starter has an inflated 2.00 HR/9 figure (the result of a 16.8 HR/FB% that’s well over his career 12.1% mark), but Bush is allowing hitters to loft the ball at the highest rate of his career. The former Jay has seen his groundball percentage dip from 46.6% in 2006 to 35.1% in 2009. That’s the ninth-highest rate among qualified starters. Lacking an out-pitch, Bush takes a “kitchen sink” approach to the mound by throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, slider and changeup. Out of all those options, only his cutter (thrown 7.6% of the time) has a positive run value in 2009.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Under GM Dayton Moore, the Royals have seemingly collected former Braves farmhands like some people collect bottle caps or stamps. The acquisition of Davies (in July of ’07 for Octavio Dotel) has largely been a bust, however. The 6-2, 205 pound righty pitched decently for K.C. in 2008 (4.22 FIP, with 5.65 K/9 and 3.42 BB/9), but his walk rate ballooned to 4.63 per nine innings in 2009.

Locating just 44.2 percent of his pitches within the strike zone and posting a 52 First-Pitch Strike%, Davies was demoted to AAA Omaha over the weekend.

Casey Kotchman, Braves

The Braves rank just 13th in National League team wOBA in 2009. While the banjo-hitting of Atlanta’s corner outfielders has been discussed extensively, the club is also receiving subpar production from the per-eminent power position on the diamond. Kotchman’s ISO has dropped in each of the past three seasons: .172 in 2007, .137 in 2008 and a middle infielder-like .113 in 2009. For comparison, the MLB average at the position is .213. The 26 year-old has devolved from intriguing prospect to liability.

Magglio Ordonez, Tigers

Speaking of power outages, Ordonez is experiencing one that would put the ’77 Bronx Blackout to shame. Magglio’s ISO has fallen off a cliff, from .176 in 2008 to .069 in 2009. The 35 year-old’s groundball percentage has skyrocketed from 43.6% in ’08 to 59.8% in 2009. Among qualified hitters, only Luis Castillo and Skip Schumaker have put the ball on the ground more often. Considering that Ordonez would have a difficult time dusting manager Jim Leyland in a footrace (2.7 Speed Score, way below the 5.1 MLB average), that’s an unhappy development.

Speaking of Leyland, the Tigers skipper recently intimated that Magglio could be grabbing pine more often in the coming months. That decision may well have financial motivations (Ordonez has a hefty $18M option for 2010 based on accumulated playing time), but the former White Sox slugger seems to be losing bat speed. Over the last three seasons, Odronez’s run value per 100 pitches versus the fastball has fallen from +1.81 in ’07, +0.24 in ’08 and just -1.28 in ’09.

Ross Ohlendorf, Pirates

The one where Ross can’t fool anybody: Part of the Bronx swag for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte last summer, Ohlendorf posted a 3.24 ERA in April while benefitting from a .260 BABIP. Since that point, the Princeton product has gotten battered to the tune of a 5.20 ERA in May and a 6.33 mark in June.

Ohlendorf has exhibited good control (2.41 BB/9), but his 4.61 K’s per nine innings is the 12th-lowest rate among qualified starters. While many of those with similar K rates compensate with a boatload of groundballs (think Cook, Pineiro, Marquis and Pelfrey), Ross has a 44.7 GB% that’s right around the MLB average. Lefties have teed off against Ohlendorf (.325/.380/.530), continuing a trend of getting smashed by southpaws (.342/.404/.569 in the majors).

Here is the latest update to Week 12 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

ATL – Hanson
BOS – Penny
NYM – Hernandez
STL – Pineiro
CLE – Huff

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CLE – Pavano

Hanson is coming off a six scoreless inning performance. Considering how much trouble he has had with both walks (5.09 BB/9) and homers (1.53 HR/9) it is surprising how he sits with a 2-0 record. His FIP is 5.78 after three starts but Hanson has had basically one bad inning so far, back in his first start when he gave up two homers and four runs to the Brewers.

Penny figured to be the odd man out when John Smoltz returned from the disabled list but the combination of his continued solid pitching, along with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s poor performance has given Penny another life. In his last six outings, Penny is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 34.2 innings.

Hernandez may be the Mets’ best pitcher right now. And that is equal parts reflective of how poor the team’s other pitchers have been lately along with how well Hernandez has pitched. In 13 starts this year, he has had just three bad outings and he has posted seven Quality Starts this year. Hernandez’ main problem has been the gopher ball. He has allowed 11 homers in 79.2 innings and seven of those came in the three bad starts.

Pineiro has a .321 BABIP to go along with a 62.7 percent strand rate. His success this year has come thanks to a microscopic walk rate (1.18 BB/9) and an even smaller home run rate (0.22 HR/9). Still he leads the National League with eight losses and the Cardinals have scored three runs or less for him in nine of his 13 starts. He gets an average of 3.71 runs per game but it is only that high thanks to a 12-run outburst in one game.

Huff has an 11-5 record the past two seasons in Triple-A but has found major league hitters harder to handle. He has advanced to the sixth inning just one time in seven outings. His 7.09 ERA comes along with a 1.64 WHIP and a 1.91 HR/9 ratio.

When the Athletics signed Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $4-million-dollar deal late in the offseason, Dave Cameron was not alone in lauding Billy Beane for another veteran steal.

The logic seemed unassailable. Cabrera has been a real plus on defense over the course of his career. Last year he even put up an impressive 14 runs over the average shortstop, but his glove has also averaged 7 runs over average at a premium position for three years.

Of course, his offense has been a drag on his value. Over his valuable last three years, he’s given up almost 4 runs a year with his bat. Even so, most teams would agree with his $26 million dollar value over the last three years, especially if that player came with a $4 million dollar price tag.

Then came this year. The player himself said it best to the San Francisco Chronicle: “I suck. I don’t even know how to describe it. … I suck. For real.” So what’s going on with this year’s disasterpiece? Perhaps we can use his offensive numbers to figure out what he’s lost on defense.

There are a couple issues with his plate discipline. While his walk rate and strikeout rate are right in line with his career numbers, his reach rate is up a little (27.2% over 24.1% career). With a 93.6% zone contact rate, he could stand to take advantage of that strength by reaching less often. This is nitpicking, however.

His batted ball rates are actually all perfectly in line with his career averages. It is eerie actually how Cabrera’s line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates are right in line with what he’s always done. In April, he hit 62 balls without getting a single one over 100 mph, but without historical data, it’s hard to say much about those numbers. He was never much of a slugger anyway.

No, he was more of a speedster. Since 2001, he’s averaged 21 stolen bases and a 5.3 four-component speed score. This year, he’s down to two stolen bases (against four caught-stealings) and a speed score half his average (2.5). His BABIP, a number that is tied to speed, is in a three-year decline. That’s more than a step slow, that seems like a leg or foot injury… or a quick decline.

Consider that his speed score, which was never elite in the first place, is actually in a four-year decline. His stolen-base success rate in 2008 was his lowest since 2001. It certainly looks like Orlando Cabrera has lost a step – or even more than a step. Since speed is a big part of both his offensive and defensive game, it follows that his value has quickly entered a decline phase.

Maybe this isn’t so surprising for a 34-year-old middle infielder. What is surprising is that, by using his speed score and offensive numbers, we can possibly spot a loss of speed that isn’t evident in his defensive component numbers. If he has slowed, you wouldn’t have seen it in his Range Factor, Range Runs Above Average, or Ultimate Zone Ratings over the past three years. His defensive numbers just fell off a cliff this year, with little warning. It seems that defensive statistics could use some more refining.

Either that, or Cabrera is just having an unlucky start (.250 BABIP) and a little trouble getting his motor going.