Wandy Rodriguez fanned 11 batters over seven innings Thursday afternoon to help his Astros defeat the Rockies. It was his second straight dominant start and helped push his record to 4-2. He’s now rocking a 1.90 ERA, an 8.31 K/9, a 2.36 FIP and a 1.00 WHIP. Let’s dive in and get better acquainted.

The fellas over at Razball.com were gushing over Wandy this spring. “Last year, Rodriguez put up a very solid ERA of 3.54. But, as some of us may know, you can put the value of ERA by itself as a predictor of future performance in one hand and crap in the other hand and tell me which one is heavier. Better still Wandy’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 3.62, which was actually better than (Roy) Oswalt’s. … Another great sign, Wandy’s K/9 ratios keep going up every year. Last year, those rates were 8.58. Also, he finally got his BB/9 below 3.”

He had very nice numbers last season, there’s no doubting that, but he’s done even better so far in the ’09 campaign. Aaron Gleeman, writing for NBCSports.com’s “Circling the Bases,” had a glowing review of today’s subject on Friday morning. “Rodriguez has missed more and more bats every season, going from 14.3 percent as a rookie in 2005 to 24.1 percent so far this year. The major-league average is usually around 17-18 percent, so Rodriguez has gone from being 20 percent below average to 40 percent above average. … And he’s racked up those strikeouts without hurting his control, as his walk rate has remained steady at 7-8 percent following some initial improvement.”

When you think “ace,” and you think of the Astros in the last five years, Oswalt is the first face that springs to mind. Those days might be over. Matt Snyder of Fanhouse has more: “I strongly believe he will be a must-start option for the balance of 2009. Obviously he’s not maintaining a 1.90 ERA all season. He’s not Pedro Martinez circa 2000. He is, however, a strikeout pitcher who hasn’t been the beneficiary of a ton of “luck” (his allowed BABIP is .271, which will normalize a bit but not much) and has shown the ability to stymie solid offensive teams (quality starts against the Dodgers, Cubs and Cardinals thus far). The fact that he’s left-handed and has always thrown well in the bandbox that is Minute Maid Park bode well for his prospects moving forward as well.”

On to the links…

Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority runs down some of the more popular waiver adds of the week from his own personal fantasy leagues.

Anthony A. Perri of InsiderBaseball takes a look at this season’s Under/Over Performing Pitchers.

Check out Christoper Harris of ESPN.com’s “The Big Rotowski” column, where he names “ten players I like more than the flock does.” B.J. Ryan surprisingly tops the list, even though he’s been stripped of any closing duties.

If you come across, or produce, something interesting and fantasy-related that you’d like others to see, drop me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter. You can also follow your favorite team from night to night with FanGraphs’ new live Twitter feeds. It’s all very exciting.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Ricky Nolasco – Yes, when you drafted Nolasco you thought he’d be one of your top pitchers when he was healthy. But instead he’s been horrible. Maybe Nolasco is hiding an injury or maybe his teammates are tipping all of his pitches. Either way, you do not want him in your lineup for two lousy starts. The fear is that the moment you take him out is when he rights the ship but is that upside worth the damage he could do to your staff? Nolasco leads the NL in hits allowed (58) and ER (36).

Scott Baker – So far in 2009, Baker has a 2.14 HR/9 mark. This week he goes on the road to face the White Sox against their top pitcher, Mark Buehrle. And his second start he faces the Brewers, who are tied for the lead in the NL with 45 HRs.

Shairon Martis – Yes, he’s 5-0 but his peripherals are underwhelming. And LHB have really feasted on Martis this year. Lefties have a .319/.394/.473 mark in 104 PA versus the rookie from Curacao. The Pirates lineup features five lefty hitters while the Orioles as a team are batting .288/.362/.474 versus RHP.

Brandon McCarthy – The Texas pitcher is 3-1 and has two road starts this week. Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but McCarthy actually has pitched better at home so far this season. Still, his pitching matchups are Dontrelle Willis and Mike Hampton. The Rangers are third in the league in runs scored, they have a .292 AVG versus LHP and should be able to give McCarthy good run support versus pitchers who are several years removed from their last good season.

Jason Hammel – Yes, the ERA looks really bad but Hammel has been killed at Coors Field, where he has allowed 12 ER in 10 IP. This week he has two road starts, where Hammel has yet to give up a run in 10 innings. Plus, he gets to face Jo-Jo Reyes and Willis in his two starts. This is a good guy to pick up off the waiver wire for this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Haren, J. Johnson, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Shields, Lilly, Lee Buehrle, Jurrjens, Pettitte, Wolf, Young, Wakefield, E. Santana, Washburn, Richmond, Zito, Bannister, Pineiro, Perkins, Ohlendorf, Marquis, Palmer, Tallet, Looper, Willis, Hampton, Owings, Niemann, Augenstein, Bergesen, Outman, Gallagher, Karstens, Redding, Reyes, Richard.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 5 and how they did.

Beckett – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2 starts)
Volstad – Advised to sit. 6 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP (1)
Maholm – Advised to start. 9 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Paulino – Advised to start but sent to bullpen.

Just dropping off a few evening links. I’ll be back tomorrow with another “meta analysis.” I hope those have been enjoyable so far. I know the format still needs a bit of work.

If you ever come across, or produce something fantasy-related that you thing others should see, drop me a line. Or if you’re down with the craze, feel free to hit me up on Twitter.

As Knox Bardeen of Crooked Pitch points out, via his Twitter feed, Astros outfielder Michael Bourn is hitting .303 (.357 wOBA) with 12 stolen bases, yet is owned in just 32% of fantasy leagues.

A hot topic these days, David Wysocki of KFFL.com examines the fantasy impact of the Dodgers “sans Manny Ramirez.”

Scott White of CBSSports.com isn’t drinking the Marco Scutaro Kool-Aid. The typically light-hitting infielder is off to a great start, batting .271/.402/.436 with five home runs, six doubles and 18 RBI in 140 at-bats. His ZiPS projections for the entire 2009 season? A line of .261/.334/.364, six home runs, 16 doubles and 39 RBI. He’s on quite the pace.

Eric Cunningham of Fanball.com examines a few of the league’s more interesting platoon battles: Marlins catcher, White Sox shortstop and Mets right fielder.

Rotoworld’s Matt Stroup has this week’s Waiver Wired. His top add for mixed leaguers? Ian Stewart, who boasts a .353 wOBA, seven home runs and 20 RBI through 32 games.

Grey over at Razball.com takes a hard look at some of the league’s luckiest starting pitchers, or those with the highest FIP-to-ERA differences.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports discusses the fantasy potential of recently promoted outfielder Nolan Reimold. He posted a 1.228 OPS at the Triple-A level, but how often will he be used in Baltimore?

ESPN.com’s Matthew Berry re-worked his Top 250 Player Rankings last night and provided a bit of flavorful analysis this evening. Albert Pujols is still his top dog, and for good reason.

As former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted this past offseason, Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks has been breaking baseball hearts for years. The 2nd overall pick out of Southern University back in 2003, Weeks crushed minor league pitching to the tune of .289/.387/.493, including a gargantuan 2005 season at AAA Nashville (.320/.435/.655) that earned him a spot in the big leagues that June. A powerfully built right-handed hitter with a Sheffield-like bat waggle and quick wrists, Weeks looked like he should have hit the ground running.

That 2005 big league campaign wasn’t awe-inspiring (.328 wOBA, .239/.333/.394), but Weeks drew walks at a 10% clip as a 22 year-old, while posting a respectable .156 ISO. His 2006 season (interrupted by a wrist injury) looked superficially better (.344 wOBA), but his .279/.363/.404 line was mostly the product of a .355 BABIP (.291 in 2005). In terms of working the count (7.7 BB%) and hitting for power (.125 ISO), the second baseman actually took a step back.

Then came an exciting 2007 season which again conjured up hope that Weeks would make good on his star prospect status. Although he again dealt with a wrist malady (and was actually optioned to the minors in early August), his wOBA climbed to .365. Weeks drew a free pass a robust 16% of the time with a .189 ISO, leading to a .235/.374/.433 showing. He absolutely clobbered the ball in the second half of the season, with a .903 OPS (.720 in the first half).

So, the stage was set for Weeks to bust out. Except, he didn’t. He wasn’t bad, mind you, with a near league-average wOBA of .334. He still worked the count well (12.2 BB%), but he didn’t show quite as much pop (.164 ISO). His Line Drive% was just 15.1. Injuries continued to bother Weeks as well (a sore left knee and a left thumb this time). Combine the mildly disappointing lumber with an improved-but-still-iron glove and a tendency to get nicked up, and Weeks was beginning to look like just another guy.

In 2009, however, the 26 year-old is finally thumping opposing pitchers like many scouts projected. With 9 dingers and a .257 ISO in 153 PA, Weeks has a .377 wOBA that ranks 8th among second basemen. The 5-11, 210 pounder has been a little more aggressive in ’09, chasing 23.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (19.6% career average). His walk rate (6.7%) and P/PA (3.8 in ’09, compared to 4.2 in 2007 and 4.1 in 2008) also reflect a less restrained approach. Weeks is also lofting the ball more often (43.8 FB%, 37.1 career average) and his line drive rate has rebounded (19%). His K rate, always rather lofty, is largely unchanged (25% in ’09, 26.2% career).

Weeks’ BABIP (.323) is perhaps a little higher than one might anticipate, but his power stroke should be here to stay. When not hampered with hand injuries, Weeks has shown the ability to drive the ball. The updated ZiPS projections on our player pages (which blend preseason projections with early-season performances) show Weeks posting a .262/.353/.462 line, good for a .360 wOBA. That checks in as the 8th-best forecast among second baseman. We’ve waited on Weeks for years, but perhaps that patience will finally be rewarded.

Here is the second edition of our mailbag. Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

Just wanted to get your thoughts on this trade:

Do you think Dye was the right choice to trade? Did I get enough for him?
Thanks! B.M.

Yes, Dye was the right one to trade. I like Upton the best and I believe that Cruz will steal enough bases to more than make up for whatever (if any) advantages Dye has in the other categories.

But he may have been too much to give up for Nolasco. Sure, Nolasco is unlikely to maintain a .387 BABIP or a 52.7 percent strand rate. But even if he flips the switch and pitches like he did in the second half of last year, you still have the injury threat from last year’s innings total hanging over his head.

Yet, I would not worry too much about the deal. Dye was unlikely to fetch much better, his loss does not hurt your offense and there’s a good chance that Nolasco will offer stretches of good pitching for your team.

In a 10-team, 23 player, mixed head to head 5×5 keeper league. I was offered Matt Capps and Hunter Pence for Broxton OR Javier Vazquez for Broxton. Here is my team:

Thanks, S.H.

Your OF is pretty strong so I would concentrate on the Vazquez-Broxton swap. Broxton has been overpowering this year. His average fastball velocity of 97.6 is a career high, as is his 15.19 K/9. He is going to challenge for a 40-save season. Vazquez also has a career-high 11.07 K/9, although his fastball velocity is the lowest its been since 2004. The updated ZiPS forecasts Vazquez with 15 wins for the season, which seems a tad high to me.

Vazquez is a solid pitcher. I think you could use a SP upgrade and this would not be the worst deal in the world. But I would shop around and see if you could do better elsewhere.

11 team, 5×5 deep mixed keeper league. Received Josh Hamilton, Sherrill and Uehara for Gallardo and Broxton. I desperately needed J-Ham as I am dead last in HR and RBI. I think there’s some upside to Uehara. I also think Sherrill will get his job back. My rotation took a hit (Lowe is now my ace, Baker, Pettitte, Webb on DL). My other closers are Wilson and (eventually, I hope) Marmol and Zumaya. Did I give up too much?
Thanks, E.A.

Yes.

After a week’s hiatus due to a busy schedule, we’re back with the weekly Minor Impacts, which is a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have an impact at the Major League Level in 2009.

Nolan Reimold: This talented player is absolutely killing the ball in Triple-A with a triple-slash line of .396/.484/.755 in 106 at-bats. Left field has been a black hole for the big-league club in 2009. However, 1+1 does not always equal 2 in Baltimore, no doubt much to Reimold’s chagrin. Felix Pie is hitting .180 and Lou Montanez is a bench player. It’s time to see what the former second-round pick (2005) can do – and at 25 years old Reimold’s not getting any younger.

Gorkys Hernandez: This 21-year-old outfielder is also having a nice showing in the minors, although he’s currently playing in double-A. Hernandez is hitting .331/.391/.421 with seven steals in 31 games. He plays good defense, as well. Unfortunately, he still strikes out too much for a player with his skill set, but he can’t do much worse than current Braves center-fielder and rookie Jordan Schafer, who is striking out almost 40% of the time.

Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Todd Frazier: The Reds organization is about to have another glut of outfielders. No fewer than three outfielders are currently knocking on the big league door but there isn’t room for everyone. Perhaps the club should look to cash in on some of this depth to help out in the pitching department. Stubbs, 24, is hitting .333/.412/.467 in triple-A and has made strides in his strikeout rate. Chris Heisey, 24, has long been an underdog, but he just keeps hitting and is currently at .374/.471/.626 with a BB/K rate of 1.90 in double-A. Frazier, who converted to the outfield from third base this season, is batting .281/.314/.422 but has as much – or more – potential as the other two hotter hitters.

Chris Tillman: The Baltimore starting rotation is an ugly, ugly place to be these days, but Tillman could make things a lot more bearable in the near future. Only 21, the right-hander is dominating triple-A hitters and currently has a 2.03 ERA after allowing just 24 hits in 31 innings of work. His walk rate is a respectable 3.48 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is excellent at 10.74 K/9. Tillman has also not allowed a home run despite allowing more flyball outs than ground outs.

Vince Mazzaro: With so many young pitchers already having surfaced in Oakland this season, it’s hard to believe there are more on the horizon but there are and Mazzaro is leading the charge. He’s flown under the radar so far in his pro career despite the fact he was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2005 draft. Mazzaro is not flashy and he’s not a strikeout pitcher (6.81 K/9 in triple-A) but he gets a ton of groundball outs.

Honorable Mention: Jake Fox, a converted catcher, is not really a prospect anymore. He’s 26 years old and he can’t really play a position – not even first base. With that said, though, he can absolutely crush the ball and he’s hitting an unbelievable .402/.483/.941 with 14 homers in 102 at-bats. The Cubs should do him a favor and either release him or trade him to a needy American League club so he can at least prove that he’s nothing more than a future Japanese export or a quad-A slugger. In the last article we plugged Josh Whitesell as a player who needed a break and he was called up by Arizona, so here’s hoping lightning strikes twice.

Giants second baseman Emmanuel Burriss is on an 18-for-44 (.409) tear to open the month of May and was permanently awarded the Giants’ leadoff role on Monday. “He can bunt, he can steal a base. He can do some things you want your leadoff man to do,” beamed manager Bruce Bochy, upon announcing the lineup change.

Burriss is an interesting fantasy case. He has next to no power (1 HR in 350 career at-bats), but he’s displayed good plate discipline at every level of baseball and has the kind of speed that most managers love at the top of the lineup. Plus, he’s a switch-hitter. Through Tuesday night, he had racked up nine stolen bases, good enough for second in the National League.

Burriss was rushed to the majors last year as the Giants began calling on all the troops during the second half of a wasted season, but he may have been the most impressive of the club’s youngsters. At just 24 years of age, he still has time to build a little more strength. Burriss is never going to be a double-digit home run hitter, but an ability to drive the ball into the gaps, combined with his already impressive speed, will help him tally doubles and triples in bunches.

Warren Greshes of the San Jose Mercury News loves his potential, both offensively and defensively. “First off, Burriss’ speed and intelligence on the bases (highest baseball IQ of any of the Giants youngsters), has injected a much needed shot of energy into this team,” Greshes wrote last season. “His range and strong arm around second base has conjured up comparisons (albeit VERY premature) to Roberto Alomar, the best defensive 2nd baseman I’ve ever seen.”

Burriss is a native of the Washington D.C. area and spent his college career at Kent State. It’s an odd route to the major leagues, as Cameron Smith of the Washington Post noted in early May.

MASN’s Debbi Taylor collected a plethora of compliments about Burriss on Tuesday. Nationals manager Manny Acta said he “likes the speed and energy Emmanuel brings to the game.” Giants hitting coach Carney Lansford can attest that the young second baseman “has great work habits.” And Bochy added that he “likes Emmanuel’s approach,” calling him, in essence, “effectively aggressive.”

Burriss may never top fantasy draft boards, but he boasts a decent amount of value in NL-only leagues and mixed leaguers desperate for stolen bases may as well give him a look. He has scored only 10 runs heading into Wednesday’s full slate of action, but he’s sure to see a nice boost in that category as the new leadoff man.

On to the links…

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that Albert Pujols would bat .370/.456/.691 with 219 Hits, 44 home runs, 132 RBI and 136 Runs if he faced Pirates pitching every at-bat over the course of a season.

Rotoworld’s Aaron Gleeman discusses the Blue Jays’ decision to stick with Scott Downs at closer, even with the high-priced B.J. Ryan returning from the disabled list.

Andy Behrens of Yahoo! Sports breaks down the Rangers’ and Nationals’ closer issues. C.J. Wilson and Joel Hanrahan would appear to be worthwhile pickups.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera actually had something of a rough week, giving up two long balls to the Rays on the seventh. That performance prompted manager Joe Girardi to leak that Mo’s surgically repaired shoulder has been giving the cutter demi-god some problems . Not that you’d know it from the 18/1 K/BB ratio, but Rivera’s cutter velocity continues to sit about 2 MPH slower than last season.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon has yet to blow a save, but he has raised the collective blood pressure of Boston’s fans a little more than usual in the later innings. He has dished out 9 walks in 15 frames and holds a 3.72 FIP. His K/BB ratio stands at 2.11, compared to his career 4.66 rate.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood holds a 4.00 FIP, a middling mark, but that looks downright impressive compared to some of the other arsonists in Cleveland’s ‘pen: the Tribe 27th in reliever FIP and 28th in WPA. Wood had only one appearance this week, pitching a scoreless inning in a losing effort against the Tigers on the 9th.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks had progressively become more of a contact-oriented reliever over the past few seasons, with his K rate plummeting from the double-digits to just 5.55 per nine in 2008. In 2009, however, high-octane Bobby might be back: his heater velocity is up nearly 2 MPH from last season, and his contact rate has dipped from 84.5% in ’08 to just 74.4% in ’09, the lowest mark of his career (80.6% MLB average). Jenks has 12 whiffs in 12 innings thus far, and is a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has reeled of 5 scoreless innings in the month of May. Nathan seems to be baiting opponents to chase his stuff out of the zone, with just 43.6% of his pitches crossing home plate (51.5% career average). The strategy appears to be working, as hitters have made contact on just 55.6% of those outside offerings (62.3 % MLB average) while chasing them 34% of the time (24.4% MLB average).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco hasn’t pitched since May 6th, as he deals with a bout of biceps tendinitis. Hopefully the injury isn’t serious: Francisco leads all relievers in WPA (2.00), with zero runs allowed in 14.2 frames. C.J. Wilson (4.49 FIP) and Eddie Guardado (7.55 FIP) will get any save chances in the meantime, though neither come highly recommended

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler continues to fight the flu, and he’s surrendered 5 runs (4 earned) in his last two appearances on the 7th and the 10th. Zielger hasn’t been bad this year (3.72 FIP), but Bailey has been a beast: with 24 K in 21.1 IP, the rookie right-hander holds a 2.53 FIP. Bailey’s low-90’s fastball, high-80’s cutter and mid-70’s curve have been extremely difficult to square up: opponents have just a 73.2% contact rate against pitches in the zone against the rookie righty (87.7% MLB average).

Brandon Morrow, Mariners

Back off the DL, Morrow walked two and gave up a run in an inning of work against the Twins on May 10th. We’re only talking about 7.2 innings of work so far, but Morrow has used his upper-90’s fastball 91.1% of the time, the highest rate among all relievers. Unfortunately, with 9 walks and just 41.3% of his pitches over the plate, his fastball control is a little rusty.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes has a four-appearance scoreless streaking going, a modest accomplishment after a rough re-introduction to the AL (he was briefly a Mariner back in ’01). He’s still fooling batters (15 K in 11.2 IP), and his .421 BABIP is sure to continue dropping.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan is nearing a return to Toronto, but his old cozy spot won’t be waiting for him. According to GM J.P. Ricciardi, Downs will remain the 9th inning man for the time being. It’s hard to argue with the decision, given Ryan’s rocky performance and Downs’ dazzling work (20/1 K/BB ratio, 1.90 FIP in 16.1 innings).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney had his first rough stretch in terms of throwing strikes this week, issuing 3 BB in two appearances against Cleveland on the 9th and 10th. Hopefully, this isn’t a sign of things to come for the normally strike zone-challenged reliever: he had been doing a fine job of locating his pitches, with 59.2% of them ending up in the strike zone (fourth-highest among all relievers).

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

The Mexicutioner hits the DL for a second time with a wonky shoulder, a troubling development. GM Dayton Moore says there’s no “structural damage” (“just” rotator cuff inflammation), but free agent import Cruz will handle the 9th inning for the time being.

Cruz’s ERA may sit at 1.88, but he’s struggled to throw strikes with an 11/9 K/BB in 14.1 IP. A .169 BABIP has aided him thus far, and he’ll have to do a better job of pounding the zone if he expects to have continued success.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill racked up a save last night against the Rays, and he’s apparently still the guy for the time being. The lefty has been rather hittable (opponents have made contact with 92.5% of his pitches within the zone, compared to the 87.7% MLB average), and Sherrill has handed out 7 walks in 14.2 IP. His grip on the job will always be tenuous; he’s like a southpaw version of Mike Williams.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival has FIP’s of 5.87 and 4.80 over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, but he’ll continue to get the call in the 9th so that Balfour, Howell et. all can work more than 3 outs at a time. Percival has put himself in jams in his 8.2 frames of work, with a 44.4% First-Pitch Strike % (57.8% MLB average).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez is 9-for-9 in save opportunities this season, with 16 whiffs in 15.2 frames. K Rod has always been a flyball-oriented sort (41.9 GB%), but he’s taken that tendency to the extreme in 2009: his groundball rate sits at 20%, third-lowest among all relievers. Luckily for the Mets, Citi Field is playing favorably toward such flyball-slanted arms in the early going.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continues to produce Nintendo-style numbers on the hill, with 27 punchouts, 2 hits and 1 run allowed in 16 frames. The 24 year-old has been absolutely untouchable in May: in 5 IP, he’s punched out eight without a hit or a walk. Broxton will eventually surrender some bloops (his BABIP is .099), but his appearances are fast becoming Gagne-esque, “Game Over” events.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has had plenty of time to hit the Wii-Fit in recent days: he hasn’t appeared in a game since May 7th. Reality is hitting the Padres right between the eyes. After a 9-4 start, the Fathers have gone an unholy 4-16. Bell still hasn’t had a runner cross home plate on his watch, with an 11.2 inning scoreless streak and a 1.60 WPA that ranks second among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls is going through a rare rough path of pitching, having been scored upon in two of his last three appearances. Still, he holds a superb 16/2 K/BB ratio in 13 frames, with a 2.42 FIP that rates as his lowest figure in the majors.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps missed some time nursing a sore elbow, but that’s okay: the Bucs accomodated their closer by going on an eight-game losing streak. The beefy right-hander worked an inning of mop-up duty in last night’s 7-1 victory over St. Louis, again showing shaky control with two walks surrendered. Capps now has issued more free passes in 2009 than he did during the entire 2008 season.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

May has been rather cruel to Philly’s stopper: Lidge has surrendered 6 runs in his past four innings, with two more souvenirs entering the bleachers. He’s now given up 5 dingers in 13.2 innings, for a 21.7 HR/FB% that looks like a misprint. Lidge’s First-Pitch Strike% sits at 47.8% (58.9 career average). If his knee continues to bark and the long-balls continue, Madson could make a cameo in the event of a DL stint. Madson has a FIP hovering around two, and he’s kept the fastball velocity spike from late last season (94.7 MPH in 2009).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero is now 10-for-10 in save ops, missing bats (16 K in 15 IP) while also making things a little too interesting for Cincy’s fans (7 BB). Utilizing his mid-90’s fastball more often (71.8%) at the expense of his high-80’s slider (20.6%), Cordero has seen his Outside Swing% fall for a third straight season. Cordero threw that hard, biting breaking pitch 46.2% of the time in 2007, while garnering an O-Swing% of 35.4%. The slider usage dropped to 37.3% in 2008 (30.4 O-Swing%), and with another decrease in slider usage, his O-Swing% sits at 26.8% in 2009 (24.4 MLB average).

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Filling in for Valverde, Hawkins notched a save on the 8th, gave up a pair of hits on the 9th and hasn’t pitched since. LaTroy is looking more like the fellow who posted back-to-back strong seasons with the Twins in 2002 and 2003, as opposed to the low-octane Orioles and Rockies version from 2006-2007. He has 13 K’s in 15 innings, with a 78.5% contact rate that rates as his lowest dating back to ’02 (80.6% MLB average).

Brian Wilson, Giants

With a career-high 3.17 K/BB ratio, Wilson has notched 8 saves in 10 chances. Hitters continue to take few hacks at Wilson’s offerings, swinging at 58.8% of his pitches thrown within the strike zone (65.9% MLB average). His fastball (just about the straightest pitch in the majors in 2007 and 2008, with less about a half an inch of horizontal movement compared to a pitch thrown without spin) is wiggling a little more in ’09, with 3.7 inches of tailing action in on righty batters.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

“Hell’s Bells” has been a hit in Beertown thus far, with 7 scoreless frames, no walks and six saves. Interestingly, Hoffman’s signature changeup is showing more “sinking” action this season: thrown with 9.5 inches of vertical movement in 2007, the pitch had 8.8 inches of vertical movement in ’08 and just 6 inches in ’09. Perhaps it’s just a small-sample quirk, but could that have something to do with Hoffman’s uncharacteristic 66.7 GB%?

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom has rebounded with seven straight scoreless appearances since April 24th’s bludgeoning at the hands of the Phillies. Never a control-artist, Lindstrom has issued 9 free passes in 13 innings, while locating just 45% of his pitches in the strike zone.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan, Nationals

Beimel got the call in the 9th last night, and promptly served up a three-run bomb to hacking wonder Pablo Sandoval that turned a 7-6 lead into a 9-7 loss. Maybe he just wanted to fit in: seven of twelve relievers used by the Nats this season have negative WPA figures. Who gets the call next time out is anyone’s guess. Can Ryan Zimmerman close, too?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

While it might rankle fantasy owners, Braves skipper Bobby Cox made a refreshing decision in calling upon Gonzalez in the 8th against the Phillies on May 10th. With three straight lefties due up for Philly, Cox deployed his relievers in a manner that best called for them to be used. He didn’t obstinately say, “Gonzalez is my closer, therefore he must enter the game in the 9th with a lead between one and three runs.” If Cox continues this trend, it could cost Gonzo a few save ops while aiding the Braves overall.

On the year, Gonzalez has 19 K’s in 14.2 innings, with a 2.71 FIP. Soriano has blown hitters away to the tune of a 1.75 FIP in 16 IP, with 22 whiffs induced.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg took a beating to start the season, but he hasn’t given up a run in his last 5.2 innings, with a 7/2 K/BB ratio. Despite placing just 43.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average), Gregg has a 66.2 First-Pitch Strike% that eclipses the 57.8% big league average (that’s also the highest rate of his career). The pitches that Gregg does put in the zone are being swung at often (72.3%, 65.9% MLB average), with a low contact rate (78.7%, 87.7% MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has finally been scored upon, after a run of 13 clean appearances to begin the season. The 36 year-old and his newfound cutter (thrown over a quarter of the time) coughed up two homers against the Reds on May 10th (to Jerry Hairston and Micah Owings).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has had a rather quiet week, tossing a scoreless inning on the 8th versus the Marlins and then racking up a save in another spotless frame versus the Fish on the 10th. The former A’s stopper has posted rates of 9.45 K/9 and 1.35 BB/9, though 3 taters in 13.1 innings have put a damper on his line. Street’s a flyball-centric pitcher in a park where that’s a no-no, but his .355 BABIP and 17.6 HR/FB rate portend to better days ahead.

It’s time for the inaugural edition of the RotoGraphs Mailbag. Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

In a 10-team mixed league I was offered Lincecum for Bruce, Baker and Joba. I’ve got plenty of depth at SP with Haren, Vazquez, Gallardo, Meche, Slowey and Ubaldo (we start 10 pitchers and have no bench). I’d replace Bruce with Fowler/Morgan. It’s not a keeper league.
Thanks guys, D.S.

While I’m always a proponent of consolidating talent in shallow leagues, this really tests the assumption that you should always take the best player in a trade. Tim Lincecum is by far and away the best player in this trade, that much is for sure. Amazingly, he’s upped his otherworldly strikeout rate and dropped his walk rate this year. In fact, with at .368 BABIP against, he’s been unlucky, if you can believe that. Other than the fact that he led all pitchers under 25 in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points last year, there’s little to worry about.

But you don’t have the luxury of moving pitchers in and out. You need to field six or seven good starting pitchers, not just one or two and a bunch of spot starters. Dropping from Joba Chamberlain and Scott Baker to Lincecum alone will hurt your depth and cause you to go to the waiver wire for pitching. And starting pitching on the waiver wire is pretty barren these days. I say you hold on to your buy-low trio and reap the benefits of their return to grace.

As David pointed out, Jay Bruce is only on the way up from here. Chamberlain still has an elite strikeout rate himself (8.83 K/9), despite a step back. It is upsetting that his HR/9 almost doubled and his BB/9 is up a full walk, and also that his fastball is down almost three miles per hour over last year. People are reaching a lot less, too (20.5% this year, 26.3% career). (Wait, why was I recommending you keep him?) Baker, though, should rebound for sure. After giving up 9.5% HR/FB over his career (MLB average hovers around 10%), Baker is serving up home runs on 18.6% of his fly balls. Nothing else is out of order, so he should return to his customary value as that number falls.

Sure, none of these guys are Lincecum. But if you’re already playing Ubaldo Jimenez, it might get ugly quickly if you start looking for another pitcher on the wire. Perhaps more knowledge about the pitching on the wire would shift this trade into the ‘do’ category.

I am in a 12-team mixed head-to-head league and am considering trading Adam Lind for Shin-Soo Choo for a couple reasons: 1) I like the more balanced stats Choo brings to my team (more R and SB), and 2), I think Lind may be overvalued right now considering his hot start (BABIP of .384), and vice-versa for Choo. Based on Choo’s great second half last year, and improving BB% and K% this year, I think he has a decent chance of outperforming Lind even in HR and 2B and RBI. Would you make this trade?
Thanks, M. R.

Wow, you did a lot of the analysis for us here. But the question is still interesting, for another reason. These players are actually very similar: they are high-line drive hitters that should hit for solid averages. They both may have mediocre home run totals by the end of the year, as well.

The under-rated Shin-Soo Choo’s career fly-ball percentage is low for a power hitter, at 32%, but he’s settled in around 36% the last two years. His line drive rate has been nothing short of elite – it’s at 26.4% this year (8th in the majors), and 23.8% for his career. Line drive rate is positively correlated with batting average, and with the improving walk and strike-out rates, Choo is indeed a very safe producer in batting average. A 68% success rate on steals should mean he’ll comfortably continue to pilfer bags, too.

Adam Lind has the same low fly-ball percentage (33.5% career), and also sports a great line drive rate this year (25.4%). However, his career line drive rate is nowhere near Choo’s elite status at 19.8%, a figure that has largely been skewed by this year’s excellence. Because Lind has always sported a double-digit HR/FB rate, while Choo hasn’t, ZiPS likes Lind to hit another 14 homers while it likes Choo to total 14 for the year. However, with Lind’s low fly ball percentage this year (29.5%), he’ll have to start getting those infield flies (25.8%) out of the park for the power projections to be correct. He certainly is busting out, as Dave Cameron outlined here.

I think you’re right in taking the safer choice of the two. Choo’s added steals should make up for the five or six home runs he may lack compared to Lind. But I can’t help wondering: Can you upgrade somewhere else since Lind’s name is so hot right now? Add a second pair of players into the deal in order to cash in on Lind’s rising star and better current numbers.