A few quick observations from the season’s first full slate of games…

Delmon Young Rides the Pine

It’s probably best not to get too worked up over lineups on the first day of the season, but the erstwhile golden boy of Tampa Bay’s farm system found himself plastered to the Twins’ bench. Granted, Young has been exasperating to watch. He puts the ball on the ground far more than a power threat should, and he swings at anything, really: strikes, balls, curves, sliders, low-flying planes, small animals…he’s basically taken a Vladimir Guerrero-type approach with Wilton Guerrero-like results.

All that being said, Young is still just 23 years of age and holds a career .318/.362/.518 minor league line, that production have come against players several years his senior. The Twins will have to slide four guys (Cuddyer, Kubel, Span and Young) between three slots (the corner outfield and DH). Kubel will take a seat versus lefties, but it’s still a bit disconcerting to see Delmon sat down against a right-hander (Felix Hernandez). Michael Cuddyer might be making a pretty penny, but he’s 30 and holds a career .341 wOBA. Young needs to see every day at-bats.

Elijah Dukes, Justin Upton follow suit

Is Jim Bowden still secretly assailing the Nationals’ decision-making process from afar? I’m not sure how else to explain the absence of Dukes in the starting lineup. He posted a .382 wOBA in 2008, showing secondary skills aplenty and kicking in defensive value to boot. A 24 year-old who might just be your best player, and he’s not guaranteed everyday play. As Dave Cameron put it, “Happy Opening Day, Nationals fans. Hope you weren’t planning on seeing the team’s best player.”

Upton, a 21 year-old wunderkind with even more upside, also found himself drinking Gatorade and flicking sunflower seeds instead of smacking line drives. Upton hit .197 during spring training- I really hope 60 lousy AB’s in March don’t weigh too heavily in Bob Melvin’s consciousness. Upton posted a 107 OPS+ in the majors at an age where most guys are in A-Ball. Choosing Eric Byrnes over that sort of talent just seems masochistic. Scrapaholics Anonymous- the first step is admitting that you have a Byrnes problem…

Drop Lee! Drop Sabathia! Sell! Sell! Sell!

Yeah, don’t do that. Not that you really need the reminder, but don’t let anything that occurs in the next few weeks override years of knowledge acquired about a player. If you want to run your fantasy team like a Jim Kramer, “Mad-Money” style outlet, then be prepared for a John Stewart-like beat down in the standings.

Atlanta Braves rookie Jordan Schafer got the 2009 MLB season going with a bang for his fellow rookies last night with a home run in his first Major League at-bat. One can only hope that the fireworks is a sign of good things to come from the 2009 rookie class.

Texas Rangers prospect Tommy Hunter has a good chance to see significant time in Arlington this season, even though he will begin 2009 in the minors, likely at Triple-A Oklahoma. The right-hander rocketed through the minors in 2008 after being selected in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft out of the University of Alabama.

The 22-year-old hurler threw just 17.2 innings in his pro debut in 2007 but then tossed more than 160 innings at three minor league levels in 2008. He added an additional 11 innings at the MLB level, where he was over-matched and allowed 23 hits (18.8 H/9) and 20 earned runs. In fact, Hunter was hittable at every level that he pitched, allowing 170 hits in 163.2 minor-league innings.

He did, though, show very good command with a 1.84 BB/9 rate. His strikeout rate was not as promising, as it was above 7.00 K/9 at High-A ball and in the Majors, but it was below 5.00 K/9 in Double-A and Triple-A. In total, his minor league strikeout rate was just 5.72 K/9, which is below average for a potential No. 3 starter. With experience, Hunter has room to improve his ‘K’ rate, as his repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider and change-up.

Hunter will probably benefit the most if he can remain in Triple-A until at least June or July. Knowing the state of the Rangers’ pitching, though, he could very well be up by the end of April. The big league rotation currently includes Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Kris Benson, Brandon McCarthy, and Matt Harrison. If Hunter does appear in the Majors for a significant amount of time in 2009 then he could provide innings and maybe some wins (He also won’t hurt you in the walks department), but there will probably be a fair number of hits allowed, and possibly a low number of strikeouts. Hunter does not have the ceiling of Neftali Feliz or Derek Holland, but he’s probably more MLB ready and of more value to fantasy baseball managers in 2009.

The American League West is shaping up to be a battle of attrition in 2009. Sure, the Angels are coming off of a 100-win campaign, but short of a Disney revival that pulls Danny Glover, Tony Danza and Christopher Lloyd out of retirement, that’s not occurring again. With downright nefarious injuries striking the rotation and a Teixeira-less offense, LAA figures fall well short of 2008’s pace.

As such, the spread of talent in the West is not all that great: PECOTA forecasts the Athletics to take the division crown with just 84 victories, with the Angels breaking even and the Mariners (77 wins) and Rangers (70) filling out baseball’s short-stack division.

Sensing there’s no time like the present, Oakland has pulled out all the stops to contend in ’09. No doubt, the club’s farm system is in dramatically better shape than it was at this point last year (so they’re well-equipped for the long run as well). However, Matt Holliday was imported from the Rockies and the one-two prospect punch of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson will fill out a rotation worn thin by the continued health issues of nominal ace Justin Duchscherer. Starting with Anderson, let’s meet Oakland’s latest infusion of highly-regarded mound talent.

The word that has always come attached to Anderson is “polish.” Son of Oklahoma State baseball coach Frank Anderson, Brett lasted until the second round of the 2006 amateur draft due to signability concerns (according to Baseball America, he wanted $1 million) and qualms over his athleticism. A portly kid at the time, Anderson elicited mixed reviews from scouts. On the one hand, southpaws with advanced off-speed offerings (in Anderson’s case, a plus curve and changeup) are rare commodities. On the other hand…

“So what’s not to like? Scouts say it’s Anderson’s glaring lack of athleticism. He has a soft, 6-foot-4, 215-pound frame, and he has trouble fielding bunts and covering first base. Some scouts say he has the best command of any high school lefty in recent memory, while others say he may be the worst athlete taken in the first round in years.” (Baseball America’s 2006 Draft Database)

Luckily, the 100 meter sprint, pole vaulting and freestyle swimming were not added to professional baseball. But, the whole pitching thing? Anderson excelled at it like few others.

Arizona signed him for $950K, and Anderson ripped through the D-Backs’ system in his debut season in 2007. He soared with the Silver Hawks in the Low-A Midwest League, posting prodigious numbers (2.03 FIP, 9.41 K/9, 1.11 BB/9) in 81.1 innings.

Promoted to Visalia of the High-A California League, Anderson continued to chop batters down as a member of the Oaks: he whiffed 9.23 hitters per nine while walking 2.54 per nine. An elevated BABIP (.386) and some homer trouble (1.38 HR/9) pushed his FIP to 4.07, but that’s still extremely impressive for a teenager in the most perilous league for pitching prospects. In addition to the K’s and precise command, Anderson posted a 55.2 GB% for the year.

After being included in the talent haul acquired by the A’s in the Dan Haren deal, Anderson returned to the Cal league to open up 2008. He continued to dominate (9.73 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 59.7 GB% in 74 IP), earning a promotion to AA Midland. In 31 frames for the RockHounds, Anderson saw his already-impressive strikeout rate spike to 11.03 per nine, while his customarily sharp command (2.61 BB/9) and worm-burning (53.8 GB%) remained intact.

Anderson has all of 30-some frames above A-Ball, but he might just be ready to his first foray into the majors. It’s hard to find a flaw with the lefty. Does he miss bats? Check. Exhibit good control? Check. Keep the ball on the ground? Check.

The 21 year-old also backs up those exceptionally strong numbers with positive scouting reports: he won’t cause anyone to drool over his radar gun readings, but his low-90’s fastball has sink, his curve and change remain crisp, and he also mixes in a solid mid-80’s slide piece for good measure. What’s not to like? It might sound crazy, but of all of Oakland’s youthful arms, Anderson might just be the most major league-ready.

When it comes to transforming drifting pitchers into gold, Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan is considered to possess the Midas Touch. Tony La Russa’s right-hand man since the 80’s, Duncan is often credited with getting the most out of the talent at hand. One of the latest Duncan disciples is right-hander Todd Wellemeyer.

A powerfully built 6-3, 195 pounder, Wellemeyer was originally selected by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2000 amateur draft. He fooled more than his share of batters in the minors, punching out 9.6 per nine innings, but superfluous free passes often left observers frustrated (4 BB/9).

That lack of fine touch was only exacerbated during three trial-runs with Chicago between 2003 and 2005. Mostly a starter during his minor league tenure, Wellemeyer was placed in the ‘pen upon arriving in the big leagues. His low-90’s heat and occasionally-plus breaking ball induced swings and misses (9.8 K/9 in 84.1 IP), but Wellemeyer was not-so-happily a Three True Outcomes pitcher. He issued 6.5 BB/9 and put many a souvenir onto Waveland Avenue (1.4 HR/9).

And so began Wellemeyer’s nomadic existence. He was flipped to the Marlins prior to opening day in 2006, but he floundered as a fish. After 21.1 innings of getting filleted (5.5 BB/9, 5.48 ERA), Florida disposed of Wellemeyer, but the pitching-starved Royals reeled him in off waivers in June. He was superficially more impressive with KC (3.63 ERA in 57 frames), but an ugly 1-to-1 K/BB ratio (5.8 K’s and BB’s per nine) suggested that was more the product of happenstance than progress. Overall, Wellemeyer’s FIP for the year was 4.83, and that came with a lower-than-expected HR/FB rate of 7.1%.

Evidently the Royals concurred that little progress had been made, as Wellemeyer was let go after sordid beginning to the 2007 season (15.2 IP, 10.34 ERA, 9/11 K/BB). Still seeing some modicum of promise in the then-28 year-old’s 92 MPH heat and hard slider, the Cardinals claimed Wellemeyer of waivers in May. As a Red Bird, he split his time between relief and the rotation, compiling a 3.11 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and a still-elevated 4.1 BB/9 in 63.2 IP. Waiver-wire Wellemeyer wasn’t half-bad in his first action as a major league rotation member, holding opponents to a .702 OPS that far eclipsed his ‘pen work (.830 OPS against).

In ’08, the Cards slotted Wellemeyer into the starting five from the beginning. He made 32 starts for the club, posting a 3.71 ERA in 191.2 innings of work. Does that overstate his case? Yeah, to some extent. Wellemeyer’s FIP was a less-shiny 4.51, as he whiffed 6.29 per nine while benefitting from a .273 BABIP. Still, he exhibited improved control (2.91 BB/9) and was essentially a league-average starter, compiling 1.7 Value Wins. Not bad for a guy whom the Royals dubbed too Proletariat to grace their roster a few springs ago (apparently, it’s okay to suck and start for the Royals so long as you’re a former Brave or have been knighted).

Going forward, it would be prudent to expect some regression in Wellemeyer’s line- he’s not bad by any means, but a sub-four ERA is probably pushing it. CHONE and ZiPS call for identical projections of a 4.57 FIP. That’s not flashy, but you could do far worse in deeper or NL-only leagues. It might have taken five years and four organizations, but Wellemeyer has seemingly found a home.

In a bit of a surprising move, Jordan Schafer has been named the opening-day starter in center field for the Atlanta Braves. Now to be fair, this is not the same Atlanta Braves team that dominated during the ’90s and early 2000s. The much younger team is still struggling to find a new identity after a few years of disappointing results and has finished in either third or fourth place in each of the last three seasons. So it’s a great time to take a risk on some youth.

So, why is Schafer such a risk? Isn’t he one of the club’s top prospect? Well, yes he is one of the top young players in the organization, but Schafer also has spent just 84 regular season games above A-ball. He managed a batting average of just .269 in Double-A last year after missing 50 games thanks to an early-season suspension for the use of growth hormones. The talented player with modest home run results also struck out 89 times in 84 games last year (29.6 K%).

On the plus side, though, Schafer’s isolated power has increased each of the last three seasons and topped out at .202 last season, although he hit just 10 homers in 297 at-bats. He also showed the ability to produce 10-20 steals, after nabbing 12 in Double-A, and 19 the previous season (in 30 tries). Schafer is also an excellent defensive outfielder, who should save some runs with the glove.

One other word of caution about the youngster: The left-handed batter hit just .196/.306/.299 against southpaws in 2008 (.236 average lifetime), compared to .309/.416/.565 against right-handers. So that means he should probably be platooned – especially against the better left-handed pitchers. The bad news, though, is that the Atlanta roster is pretty much void of options, save perhaps for… Omar Infante? If Schafer has to play regularly against southpaws, it’s going to drag down his overall numbers and hurt fantasy owners.

If you have Schafer on your fantasy team entering the 2009 season, expect a .270 average, 10 homers and 15 stolen bases. It’s nothing to write home about, but it should be a solid base for a very good baseball career. In other words, at this point, he’s a better investment in keeper leagues.

Imagine being hired at an entry level position for a company. Then, imagine becoming CEO of that company six months later.

Okay, so the ultra-aggressive promotions of ’07 and ’08 bonus babies Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry aren’t quite at that level of expedition, but it’s close. Desperate to infuse the major league club with any talent capable of avoiding a Charlie Brown-like fate on the mound (or a Kenny Rogers-type fate, for that matter), Detroit has called upon its most recently sowed farm products.

Porcello, 20, created quite the buzz during the summer of 2007. A 6-5, 195 pounder with an unusually deep mix of pitches, Porcello committed to North Carolina and was considered an awfully difficult sign. The lanky right-hander was often billed as the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, and his scouting reports were positively glowing:

“He’s long, lean, athletic and projectable with a clean delivery. His fastball sits at 93-95, touching 98. He holds his velocity deep into outings. He throws a tight curveball at 74-76 and a harder, sharp-breaking slider at 80-82. He shows feel for his changeup. He can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate, and mixes his pitches effectively.” (Baseball America’s 2007 draft coverage)

The luxury price tag and strong Tar Heel ties caused 26 teams to pass on Porcello, but the Tigers stepped up and took the best available talent, price tag be damned. Detroit eventually signed him to a $7 million major league contract, including a nearly $3.6 million bonus.

Porcello made his debut at High-A Lakeland in the Florida State League in 2008. As a teenager, he posted rates of 5.18 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9, with a 3.83 FIP in 125 innings pitched. In most cases, one might be justifiably skeptical of a highly-touted hurler who misses so few bats. However, Porcello exhibited control far beyond his years while showing extreme worm-killing tendencies (64.1 GB%).

In addition, Baseball America noted in its prospect handbook that the Tigers had Porcello on a pitch count, allowing no more than 75 tosses per game. Porcello can touch the mid-to-high-90’s with his four-seam fastball and was known to rip off some nasty sliders in high school (Detroit scrapped the pitch, at least for now). But, he focused on efficiency in ’08, with a low-90’s sinker, a 12-to-6 curve and a plus changeup as his weapons of choice. BA compared Porcello’s overall package to that of Roy Halladay, the dean of controlled, groundballing productivity.

While Porcello easily ranked as Detroit’s top prospect, fireballing right-hander Ryan Perry ranks second on most lists. Popped out of Arizona with the 21st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Perry’s claim to fame is a searing, 97-100 MPH fastball that gets on hitters in a flash. Teaming with fellow ’08 first-rounder Daniel Schlereth (Diamondbacks), Perry short-circuited radar guns and supplemented the heat with an occasionally deadly high-80’s slider. He made a brief cameo last summer between rookie ball and Lakeland, posting a 16/7 K/BB in 13.2 innings.

Perry’s command is not always ideal, which BA claims kept him from developing into a consistent starter at Arizona. However, as a ‘pen arm, he could quickly claim a prominent role with the Tigers. Detroit’s bullpen is essentially a wasteland of decent middle men, an excommunicated starter (Nate Robertson) and reclamation projects (Juan Rincon is still pitching?). Brandon Lyon is a serviceable arm, but he’s a late-inning reliever in name only. Joel Zumaya is baseball’s equivalent of a busted Lamborghini. Fernando Rodney’s level of arson is matched only by former teammate-turned-ridiculously-priced Royal Kyle Farnsworth. Suffice it to say, there’s opportunity here.

It’s nearly impossible to say how quickly Detroit’s top two prospects will acclimate themselves to the major league level. After all, Porcello was getting ready for the prom this time two years ago, and Perry has all of 14 frames of pro pitching to his name. Will sending Porcello and Perry’s development clocks into turbo-drive pay off? Stay tuned.

Right-hander James McDonald earned a spot in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2009 starting rotation with a modest showing this spring. He allowed 21 hits in and eight walks in 19.2 innings of work. McDonald also struck out 13 batters. The club has good pitching depth and the rookie will slot in behind Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw.

Claudio Vargas dropped out of consideration for the No. 5 spot after allowing 25 hits in 15.1 innings. He also suffered an injury to his arm and will likely begin the year on the DL. Veteran Eric Milton, working his way back from Tommy John surgery, allowed 38 hits in 19.2 innings of work and will start the season in the minors.

McDonald has much more talent than his numbers would suggest. The 24-year-old hurler spent time in Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors in 2008. He spent the majority of the year in Double-A, where he allowed 98 hits in 118.2 innings. He posted rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 8.57 K/9. In six big league innings, McDonald allowed five hits and one walk, to go along with two strikeouts. He also pitched very well in the playoffs. McDonald’s biggest problem in his regular season debut was that he induced groundballs at a clip of just 15%. Thankfully, the Dodgers team plays in a spacious park.

He’s not overpowering, but the starter-turned-hitter-turned-starter-again has a solid repertoire, which includes a fastball that sits between 89-91 mph and can touch 94 mph. McDonald also has a plus curveball and a good change-up. His control is improving, as is his command.

The right-hander is not as flashy as 2008 rookie Kershaw, but McDonald should be a little more consistent at this point. He probably shouldn’t top 170 innings pitched in 2009, after throwing fewer than 150 innings last season (not including the playoffs). McDonald has a good shot at providing 10 wins for a solid LA club, as well as 120-130 strikeouts. Last season, the club got six wins and a 6.27 ERA out of its No. 5 starter (Brad Penny).

The transactions involving minor league prospects continue to fly across the wire. A number of players received good news: That they had earned starting jobs for opening day.

James McDonald won a starting gig in Los Angeles (NL). Scott Richmond won the fifth spot in the rotation in Toronto; veterans Wade Miller and Matt Clement will continue to follow the comeback trail from serious injuries by pitching in Triple-A. Rick Porcello, who has not pitched above High-A ball, will go every fifth day in Detroit, while former starter Nate Robertson has been banished to the bullpen. Robertson can hang out with 2008 first-round pick Ryan Perry, who made the team despite questionable control.

Rookies Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill will make up two-fifths of the rotation in Oakland. In Atlanta, Jordan Schafer won the center field job, which caused the club to trade his competition – Josh Anderson – to the Tigers. Dexter Fowler received the go-ahead to patrol center field for Colorado on opening day. An injury to Joe Mauer has allowed Jose Morales to claim the back-up catcher’s role, beating out Drew Butera.

The Florida Marlins organization has been busy. Along with picking up veteran Ross Gload from Kansas City, the club traded infielder Robert Andino to Baltimore for left-handed prospect Hayden Penn. Both players were out of options and would have had to pass through waivers if they had been demoted.

The Marlins also surprisingly released Dallas McPherson, who hit 42 homers in Triple-A last season. Gaby Sanchez, the favorite entering spring to be the club’s first baseman, was demoted to the minors after struggling all spring. The club will move Jorge Cantu across the diamond and play speedy second baseman Emilio Bonifacio (who has zero power) at third base.

The New York Yankees demoted pitcher Alfredo Aceves, who was a surprise contributor in 2008. The club also sent down Dan Giese, who saw some time in the Majors last year. The division-rival Boston Red Sox announced that Chris Carter had won a roster spot as a bench player (It’s about time he got a chance).

The Colorado Rockies finally set first baseman Joe Koshansky free on waivers but he was picked up by Texas, a club that really doesn’t need a first baseman or designated hitter, although things could clear up a bit for him if, as expected, veteran Frank Catalanotto is let go.

Despite smoking the ball and hitting more than .400, Jesus Guzman was sent to the minors by San Francisco. Cleveland reliever Edward Mujica, out of options, was dealt to San Diego.

Prospects can really try your patience at times… especially if you draft a player based on his overall athletic ability and pray that he can translate that to the ball diamond. Such was the case with the Cincinnati Reds organization and Chris Dickerson, who was drafted out of the University of Nevada in the 16th round of the 2003 draft.

He showed signs of life in 2007 and fully emerged from his cocoon in 2008 when he hit .287/.384/.479 with 11 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 349 at-bats at Triple-A. Dickerson earned a promotion to the Majors and hit .304 with six homers and five steals in 102 at-bats. If his power is for real, he has the potential to be an above-average defensive outfielder who can hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases in 500 at-bats.

The knock on Dickerson, though, is that the left-handed hitter cannot hit southpaws. In his last four minor-league seasons, he hit .223/.328/.319 against left-handed pitching, compared to .272/.364/.464 against right-handers. In 2008, though, he improved to hit .258 against southpaws, which could allow him to play regularly in the Majors if he can keep that up. If not, he could be a solid platoon player.

Dickerson, 26, could form an impressive left-field platoon with powerful Tampa Bay cast-off Jonny Gomes (currently a non-roster player having a good spring with four homers and 12 RBI). For Dickerson, spring training has had its ups and downs. He’s hitting .300 but he’s also struck out 21 times in 23 games and he’s been caught stealing five times in 11 chances.

There are still rough edges to Dickerson’s game, but he has the potential to add a little excitement to a young roster that includes second-year players Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto. If he plays everyday, expect a healthy number of steals, some home runs, good defense and a ton of strikeouts.

Detroit Tigers
Released DH Gary Sheffield.

Sheff cooked up some sour numbers in 2008, posting a mild .323 wOBA with a .225/.326/.400 line in 482 PA. His BABIP was a low .237, but the 40 year-old has been plagued by shoulder maladies and could be destined to join Fred McGriff in the “can someone pleeease sign me so I can get to 500 homers?” club. His inability to play the field limits his utility to potential employers. Sheffield may latch on somewhere else, but it’s been one heck of a career for the quick-wristed nomad. Sheff has a career .393 wOBA; he was highly productive everywhere he played, save for an unpleasant tenure in Milwaukee. Yet, he’s played for seven different teams, and could be on the verge of number eight. Abrasive? seemingly. Highly skilled? Undoubtedly.

Florida Marlins
Released 1B Dallas McPherson.

Following McPherson’s release, the Marlins lean further to the right than Fox News: bench bats Paulino, Helms, Andino and Carroll all bat from the right.

A Three True Outcomes hitter, McPherson was once a mammoth prospect with the Angels. Alas, back issues and serious qualms about contact ability have sufficiently road blocked his major league aspirations. A 6-4, 230 pound lefty, McPherson has a career .296/.380/.586 line in the minors. He was positively radioactive as an Isotope last season, batting .275/.379/.618 with 42 bombs. Don’t get too excited, though: he’s 28 and whiffed nearly 38% of the time with Albuquerque. His home park inflated runs by 18% over the 2006-2008 seasons, boosting tater production by 17 percent. As a result, Dallas’ Major League Equivalent line (MLE) was a far less tasty .201/.288/.410.

Houston Astros
Acquired INF Jeff Keppinger from the Reds in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

With Aaron Boone out of commission and Geoff Blum…being Geoff Blum, the ‘Stros wanted an extra infielder to help out on the left side of the infield. Keppinger essentially never whiffs (career 5.6 %), but that’s about the extent of his offensive virtues: he’s a career .287/.338/.390 hitter. The former Pirate, Met, Royal and Red will likely take on the responsibilities that were supposed to go to Boone, facing southpaws as part of a hot corner platoon with Blum. In 300 career major league PA versus lefties, Keppinger has managed a .351/.403/.515 line. I suppose it’s possible that Houston could shift Tejada to third and install Kep as short. However, both UZR (-19.3 runs/150 games) and Plus/Minus (-20 over the past 2 seasons) would kindly suggest that they don’t, thanks.