Aramis Ramirez has been a fantasy star for seven of the past eight seasons. With the uncertainty surrounding Alex Rodriguez, some consider Ramirez as the third-best at the position, trailing only David Wright and Evan Longoria. According to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, Ramirez has an ADP of 31, making him a mid-third-round pick.

Last year among third basemen, Ramirez finished second in RBIs (111), third in Runs (97), fourth in AVG (.289) and fifth in home runs (27). Those are all very good numbers but do they add up to his ADP?

The RotoTimes Player Rater had Ramirez’ 2008 as the 41st-best season for a hitter, which trailed Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones and Aubrey Huff, three players who currently have a lower ADP than Ramirez.

There are questions surrounding all three of those guys but it is not as if Ramirez does not have issues of his own. From 2004-2006, Ramirez averaged 35 HR and a .304 AVG. Since then he is striking out more, hitting for less power and only a relatively high BABIP is keeping his average close to where it has been previously.

Last year Ramirez struck out in 17 percent of his at-bats, his highest total since 2002. After three straight years with an ISO in the .260s, Ramirez has seen his marks slip to .239 in 2007 and .229 a season ago. His HR/FB rate has dropped from a high of 18.7 percent in 2005 to 15.1 to 13.3 to 12.0 percent last season. Only a career-best 48.3 percent fly ball rate kept his HR totals as high as they were last season.

Ramirez has a lifetime .293 BABIP. The past two seasons he posted .316 and .307 marks in the category. Last year he hit .289 with his .307 BABIP. In 2004 he hit nearly 30 points higher with the exact same BABIP. Four times in the last seven years, Ramirez has totaled a BABIP under .300 and if he does that again in 2009 his average could suffer a big drop.

To get back to his 04-06 peak will take quite a turnaround for Ramirez in 2009. Just matching his fantasy numbers from 2008 may be a bit too much to ask. Ramirez gets a slight position bump but not anywhere big enough to make him worth his ADP.

The Houston Astros project to have a few black holes in their 2009 lineup. An Aaron Boone/Geoff Blum platoon of doom might make Astros fans long for the days of Ty Wigginton, and center fielder Michael Bourn racked up a mind-bending -21.6 batting runs in 2008. Add in an aging middle-infield combo, and it’s easy to see why PECOTA envisions just 703 runs scored for the ‘Stros, topping only the PETCO-penalized Padres and the offensively puny Giants.

Catcher was another source of angst for the club in 2008, as Houston backstops combined to post a sickly .201/.281/.289 line. Even by the modest standards of the position (the average MLB catcher hit .255/.324/.389), the Astros received precious little from long-time offensive cipher Brad Ausmus, minor league journeyman Humberto Quintero and busted prospect J.R. Towles.

Apparently unwilling to trust Towles with the everyday job following a very sour cup of coffee last season, the Astros have reportedly inked Ivan Rodriguez to a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with an additional $1.5M in possible incentives.

Long noted for an arm capable of launching projectiles into space, “Pudge” has seen his offensive production slide considerably since 2005. After compiling wOBA’s between .361 and .381 between 2002-2004, Rodriguez has followed up with marks of .312, .330, .306 and .317 from ’05 to ’08. The 37 year-old is just about the least patient hitter that you’re going to find (our plate discipline stats dating back to 2005 show Rodriguez swinging at 38.3% of pitches out of the zone), but he made up for it previously with a good deal of extra-base thump. That ability to drive the ball is in question at this point: I-Rod posted his lowest slugging percentage (.394) and Isolated Power (.118) since 1992.

There’s little risk in signing Pudge at such a discount rate- he’d need to produce less than one win above replacement to be worth his salary with the incentives. However, it’s not especially clear that Rodriguez constitutes a clear upgrade over the much-maligned Towles, at least at the plate:

CHONE:
I-Rod: .299 wOBA
Towles: .320 wOBA

PECOTA:
I-Rod: .263/.301/.364
Towles: .230/.301/.383

Towles was brutal in the majors last season (.235 wOBA in 171 PA), but his BABIP was an impossibly low .157. Short of having magnets placed on the ball and on the gloves of the defense, that’s not bloody likely to happen again. The 25 year-old has little star potential, but he is a career .302/.386/.476 hitter in the minors.

Rodriguez becomes a potential target in deeper leagues based on there just plain being few attractive options behind the dish, but keep Towles in mind in the event that he works his way back into the major league picture. He’s not great, but he’s nowhere near as bad as his ’08 big league train wreck would have you believe.

With little apparent interest in retaining Orlando Cabrera, the White Sox decided early on during the offseason to shift Alexei Ramirez from the keystone to the shortstop position. The “Cuban Missile” is lauded for his athleticism, though most defensive metrics rated him as below average in his rookie campaign. Ramirez’s move opened up a three-way competition at second base, with an ’08 first-rounder making his presence felt as well.

The front-runner for the job at this juncture is Christopher Getz. Profiled by Marc Hulet back in February, Getz is a University of Michigan product with a line-drive swing and ability to work the count. The left-handed hitter posted a .407 OBP at Low-A Kannapolis back in 2005, but his full-season debut in 2006 (.256/.326/.321 at AA Birmingham) did not inspire great hopes of everyday deployment at the highest level. The ’05 fourth-round selection rebounded in a return engagement to Birmingham, controlling the zone (11.5 BB%, 10.8 K%) on his way to a .299/.382/.381 line in 319 PA. Unfortunately, Getz’s year was cut short by a stress fracture in his left leg.

Promoted to AAA Charlotte in ’08, Getz seemingly displayed more pop. He smacked 11 home runs, far surpassing his previous career high in a single season of three, and compiled a .302/.366/.448 slash line with a .146 ISO. However, that relative power display could be explained by the hospitable environs of Charlotte: with a three-year HR park factor of 1.32 (32% above average), it’s hard to find more inviting home digs for a batter. Getz’s AAA work translates to a .258/.311/.359 showing in the majors, per Minor League Splits. There’s no star potential here- Getz is 25 and is just cracking the big leagues- but he could be worth a look in deep leagues or AL-only leagues. The former Wolverine (seemingly healed from a broken wrist suffered in August) straddles the line between useful utility man and stretched regular.

Jayson Nix, 26, is a former Rockies farmhand who stays employed based on the merits of his leather. The 2001 supplemental first-round pick earns accolades for his defensive work, but his bat just hasn’t materialized: he’s a career .260/.330/.415 minor league hitter. He did mash at AAA Colorado Springs in 2008 (.303/.373/.591), but that was his third go-around the Pacific Coast League, so skepticism is warranted.

Speaking of middle infield prospects who haven’t quite panned out, Brent Lillibridge went from sought-after youngster in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal a few years back to a throw-in as part of the Javier Vazquez swap this offseason. Drafted in the 4th round by the Pirates out of the University of Washington in 2005, Lillibridge was an on-base fiend during his full-season debut in 2006. Splitting the year between Low-A Hickory (.299/.414/.522) and High-A Lynchburg (.313/.426/.423), the rangy shortstop drew an ample amount of walks and wreaked havoc on the base paths, stealing 53 bags in 66 attempts (80%).

Following that stellar showing, Baseball America ranked Lillibridge as the 93rd-best prospect in the game, and PECOTA’s bells and whistles were whirring as well, forecasting a .276/.349/.429 major league line based on his ’06 work. Sent to AA to begin the 2007 season, Lillibridge held his own (.275/.355/.387), but his K rate jumped to nearly 30% and his walk rate was pared down to 8.9% from nearly 15% the previous year. His plate discipline further eroded at AAA Richmond, as he drew a free pass just 5.9% of the time on his way to a .284/.329/.435 line.

The wheels fell off the Lillibridge prospect wagon in 2008, as he was downright brutal back at AAA (.220/.294/.344). He walked a little more frequently (8.5%), but the high whiff rate (25.4 K%) and minimal power (.124 ISO) felled him. His short time with the Braves did not engender any lasting memories, as he swung at 36.8% of pitches thrown out of the zone on his way to a .257 wOBA. Perhaps there’s still hope for the 25 year-old in terms of becoming an everyday player, but his eroding patience at the plate might put him down a Nixian path to utility infielderdom.

The most interesting player (and the one with basically no shot of winning the job) is Gordon Beckham, a 2008 first-rounder selected out of Georgia. The 22 year-old rated as Chicago’s #1 prospect and is considered a highly-polished offensive player. Even with an admittedly mild cast of characters vying for the second base position, Beckham should return to the minors and hone his craft for a year. There’s no sense in rushing a guy with 58 official at-bats to the majors at the expense of his long-term development.

The ninth inning has been a tumultuous time for St. Louis Cardinals fans in recent years – with the 2008 season being no different. Three players saved seven or more games last year: starter-turned-reliever Ryan Franklin (3.55 ERA) with 17, former closer Jason Isringhausen (5.70) with 12 and rookie Chris Perez (3.46) with seven. Although he appeared in 41 games, Perez is still a rookie for 2009 in most people’s eyes because he did not surpass the magical 50 IP mark.

Isringhausen, now with Tampa Bay, was the Cardinals go-to guy for much of his seven seasons in St. Louis and he saved 217 games. However, he was never a truly dominating closer and he blew 38 save opportunities his seven seasons. Isringhausen also struggled mightily in 2006 and 2008 with a total of 17 blown saves in 62 opportunities. Although Franklin saved 17 games in 2008, he is not considered the long-term solution given his average stuff, eight blown saves last year and age (36).

The future likely belongs to former college closer Perez, although manager Tony LaRussa is not going to entrust a young pitcher in such a vital position without absolute proof that he is the best man for the job. Perez had a solid debut season with 34 hits allowed in 41.2 innings of work. He posted a respectable strikeout rate at 9.07 K/9 but he struggled with his control (which has been the knock on him) by posting a rate of 4.75 BB/9. Perez relied heavily on two pitches out of the pen: a fastball that averaged 95 mph, and a slider.

So far this spring, he has allowed three runs in five innings, with three strikeouts and three walks. Fellow rookie Jason Motte – another hard-throwing reliever albeit with less polish – has allowed just one earned run in five innings but also has seven strikeouts and no walks. Perez has one save on the spring, while Motte, a 26-year-old converted catcher, has two. It’s clear that Perez is not going to be handed the closer’s role this April when teams break camp. He has plenty of competition and LaRussa could simply go with a closer-by-committee or simply call on the pitcher with the hot hand – or play match-ups.

Over time, though, Perez should be the favorite to earn saves in St. Louis for the long haul. In 2009, expect a 3.50 ERA with 10-12 saves in 65 innings pitched with about 30 walks and 70 strikeouts. If he does worm his way into a more regular role as the team’s closer, be prepared to snap him up.

Despite losing one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball with the trade of C.C. Sabathia, the Cleveland Indians received one of the most talented up-and-coming sluggers in return from the Milwaukee Brewers. Matt LaPorta was selected seventh overall by the Brewers in the 2007 amateur draft after a four-year stay at the University of Florida.

With a young star named Prince Fielder already established at first base in Milwaukee, LaPorta was shifted off his traditional defensive position to left field. Most scouts felt the move was suicide and that the below-average-fielding first baseman would be lost in left. LaPorta’s play, though, has some now feeling that he could be a fringe-average outfielder at the Major League level. However, with the trade to Cleveland, the right-handed hitting slugger could settle into a big league gig at first base and/or designated hitter.

Currently, the club has the oft-injured Travis Hafner (left-handed hitter), and Ryan Garko (right-handed) filling the 1B/DH roles. LaPorta’s prodigious power (.577 career slugging) could match that of Hafner’s in his prime, and surpass anything that Garko (career .447 SLG, .404 in 2008) might have to offer. Hafner’s power output and slugging percentages have dropped off dramatically in the past two seasons (.451 SLG in 2007 and .323 in 2008).

LaPorta’s first full pro season was spent in Double-A in 2008, first in the Milwaukee organization (302 at-bats), and then in the Cleveland system (60 at-bats). He also spent time playing in the Olympics after the trade, where he suffered a concussion that plagued him for the remainder of the season. During his time at Double-A with Milwaukee, LaPorta hit .288/.402/.576 with an ISO of .288. He also showed his prowess as a run-producer by driving in 66 batters in just 84 games. LaPorta also posted solid rates: 13.0 BB% and 20.9 K%.

The Florida native has been seeing plenty of playing time this spring with Cleveland and is currently hitting .300/.391/.550 in eight games. There is not a lot of work he needs to do in the minors, although breaking balls still give him some trouble. LaPorta could very well open the season in Cleveland – or surface by May. If he does play the majority of the season in Cleveland, expect about 20 home runs, as well as a .260 average to go along with a healthy dose of walks and a pile of strikeouts. With experience, LaPorta will likely raise his average and cut down on the strikeouts.

Jacoby Ellsbury finished third in the majors with 50 SB last year. Along with his 98 runs scored and his .280 batting average, Ellsbury posted a $21.55 dollar value last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. That was the 32nd-best season by a fantasy hitter last year. The mock drafters are not completely sold on Ellsbury, giving him an ADP of 57 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Ellsbury made 129 starts last year, a figure that should go up with Coco Crisp no longer around to siphon off playing time. That should translate into better counting numbers, including steals. As for his average, all five of the projection systems see him besting his .280 of a season ago. Last year, Ellsbury had a .314 BABIP, a reasonable number given his speed, groundball tendencies (51.7%) and line drive rate (20.3%).

Ichiro Suzuki is a similar player to Ellsbury. Here are their fantasy lines from 2008:

IS – .310-6-42-103-43
JE – .280-9-47-98-50

Now, 30 points of average is a big difference but is it worth 29 slots of ADP? Certainly, Ichiro has more of a track record and could realistically post an even higher AVG in 2009. But Ellsbury could see a boost in his numbers thanks to both the expected playing time bump and the normal improvement from a young player. Would a 60-SB, 110-R season from Ellsbury be a surprise?

Ellsbury is not going to be a big threat in either HR or RBI. But with above average production in runs along with one of the best SB totals in the game he should provide great value for fantasy players, especially given his current ADP.

With southpaw Brian Fuentes defecting to the Angels via free agency, the Colorado Rockies are left without a go-to guy in the ninth inning for the first time in a few seasons. Not that this is necessarily the end of days for the club: as Fuentes (a 25th-round pick by the Mariners back in 1995) himself showed, closers are made, not born. With relief pitching being a volatile practice (save for cutter demigod Mariano Rivera), paying through the nose for one guy to toss 70-odd innings is not an advisable strategy.

The Rockies will now choose between two candidates to rack up the glory stat in 2009: home-grown righty Manny Corpas and trade acquisition Huston Street. Depending upon the health of his elbow, born-again reliever Taylor Buchholz may also factor into the picture at some point.

Signed out of Panama in 1999, Corpas threw nearly 80 innings for the Rockies in each of the past two seasons. While the surface results might appear divergent (he posted a sparkling 2.08 ERA in ’07 and a 4.52 mark in ’08), the underlying numbers were pretty similar. Corpas was neither the relief ace of 2007 nor the Farnsworthian gas can of 2008: his FIP was 3.60 in ’07 (with 6.69 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9) and 3.96 in ’08, as his strikeout and walk rates trended a bit south (5.65 K/9, 2.6 BB/9) and his GB% went from 57.4% to 49.6%.

The main difference? Corpas posted a .260 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) in 2007, but regression to the mean struck back nastily in ’08 (.330 BABIP). Truth be told, Corpas is probably more middle reliever than high-leverage stopper. His low-90’s fastball (his average velocity fell from 93.1 MPH in ’07 to 91.7 MPH in ’08) and 80 MPH slider don’t fool a whole lot of batters.

Picked up in the Matt Holliday deal, Street sort of comes with the Proven Closer (TM) tag, as he has racked up 94 saves in his career. An absolute beast at the University of Texas, Street has fallen into the realm of merely very good as a professional. With a career 2.90 FIP, 9.07 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, the near-side-arming slider specialist would appear to be the front man for the job, but recent reports indicate that Corpas holds the edge. Street is dealing with a sore quadriceps muscle after experiencing elbow issues in the past, and he is coming off of his worst year in the big leagues. He whiffed 8.87 batters per nine, but control hiccups (3.47 BB/9) led to a 3.47 FIP and a demotion behind submariner Brad Ziegler in Oakland.

Buchholz had rejuvenated his career out of the ‘pen, but an elbow sprain will sideline him for at least the beginning of the 2009 season. Buchholz (no relation to Clay) was once a hot-shot prospect in the Phillies system. He was considered by the Astros to be a major component of the November 2003 trade that sent Billy Wagner to Philadelphia. Taylor looked like the quintessential pitching prospect, standing 6-4, 220 pounds and throwing gas, but Buchholz was hit hard and often as an Astro, both in the majors (5.18 FIP in 2006) and in AAA (his career ERA at the level is 5.02).

The Rockies snagged Buchholz in a December 2006 trade that sent ticking time bomb Jason Jennings to the Astros. After a run of poor starts in 2007 (43.2 IP, 5.98 ERA), Colorado decided to try Buchholz’s low-90’s heat and hard curveball out of the bullpen, and the results have been impressive. He spent the entire ’08 campaign in relief, posting rates of 7.6 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9. His 2.17 ERA was misleading- Buchholz did have plenty of good fortune on balls in play (.234 BABIP) and had a lower HR/FB rate- but his stuff and peripherals suggest that he could be a solid bullpen cog.

Spring training statistics just aren’t that helpful. Between the small sample sizes and the varying levels of competition (some pitchers get Albert Pujols; others get Brad Eldred), it’s extremely difficult to decipher what is meaningful and what is just plain noise. The leader boards this time of the year may make one feel as though they have gone down the rabbit hole into Wonderland. As such, it’s best not to get caught up in particularly hot or cold performances. Here are just a few examples of why you should view spring training numbers with a highly skeptical eye:

Brett Gardner: 3 home runs, .875 SLG% in 24 AB
Career minor league SLG%: .385
Career minor league HR: 9 in 1,456 AB

Rajai Davis: .864 SLG%
Career minor league SLG%:.407
Career major league SLG%: .354

Glen Perkins: 12 IP, 1.50 ERA
Career major league FIP: 4.87

Aaron Cook: 15 K’s in 14 IP
Career major league K/9: 3.58

There will be plenty of players labeled poised for a breakout season based on 100 at-bats or 30 strong innings in March, but it’s prudent not to place any great emphasis on, say, Gardner’s ability to take Brad Mills deep or Cook’s penchant for striking out young prospects and Quad-A hitters. Don’t ignore spring training entirely. But, if you’re making important decisions based on a guy’s numbers in the Grapefruit League, you’re more than likely going to be disappointed.

In an age of ubiquitous media, it’s easy to have knee-jerk reactions. This is true in baseball circles as well, particularly when it comes to prospects. If a hot-shot minor leaguer reaches the big leagues and initially disappoints, there is a tendency to label the player a “bust” or write him off as overhyped. However, some guys just take a little longer to make good on those lofty expectations; not every youngster hits the ground running.

Jayson Werth is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The Baltimore Orioles nabbed the lanky right-handed hitter in the first round of the amateur draft all the way back in 1997. A catcher at the time, Werth showcased solid on-base skills, but he failed to put much of a charge into the baseball. Still, his combination of premium position and a refined batting eye earned him plenty of accolades. As this Baseball Prospectus article notes, Baseball America ranked Werth as the 52nd-best prospect in the minors prior to the 1999 season (Werth dealt with a hairline fracture in his wrist during the ’99 season, an unfortunate harbinger of things to come) and #48 before the 2000 campaign.

From those promising beginnings, Werth would go on to disappoint the O’s during the 2000 season, and was shipped to the Blue Jays for John Bale before 2001 kicked off. Werth split the ’01 and ’02 seasons between catcher, first base and the outfield, though his bat did improve without the strain of squatting behind the dish every day. He posted a .271/.383/.472 line between High-A and AA in 2001. “Jayson Werth, Prospect” was back at this point, as BA ranked him 70th overall following the year. Playing mostly outfield in 2002, he managed a .257/.355/.445 line at AAA.

Just when Werth looked to be back on track, he stumbled in a return engagement at Syracuse in 2003 (.237/.283/.441, 68 K in 236 AB). That, coupled with a few sour cups of coffee with the Jays, caused Toronto to cuts its losses with the 24 year-old. Werth was bartered to the Dodgers prior to the 2004 season in exchange for Jason Frasor.

The career roller coaster continued in ’04, this time hitting another high point. Werth managed a respectable .262/.338/.486 line, walking 9.4% percent of the time while showing range in the outfield. He did whiff 29.3% while showing a platoon split (.247/.318/.419 vs. RHP, .293/.381/.630 vs. LHP), but all in all it was a welcome bit of health and production for a guy with a bumpy road to the majors.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Werth’s success did not carry over into 2005. He had the misfortune of catching an A.J. Burnett fastball in the wrist during spring training, and he just never got on track in between three stints on the DL. Werth posted a 12.5 BB%, but severe contact problems (33.8 K%) and minimal thump due to the banged-up wrist (.139 ISO) led to an anemic .234/.338/.374 showing. Offseason surgery revealed ligament damage in the wrist, but the procedure did not cure what ailed him. The 2006 season was lost while recovering, and the Dodgers non-tendered Werth prior to 2007.

Near anonymous a decade after being a highly-regarded high schooler, Werth inked an $850K deal with the Phillies before the ’07 season. Philly GM Pat Gillick, head honcho of the Orioles back when Werth was a first-round selection, took a low-risk flyer and was rewarded. In 304 PA, Werth compiled a tasty .385 wOBA and batted .298/.404/.459. The 6-5, 225 pounder drew plenty of free passes (14.7%), though he did swing and miss enough to call that near-.300 average into question (28.6 K%). Werth continued to incinerate southpaws (.375/.467/.591) while merely surviving versus same-side pitching (.257/.371/.389).

After Geoff Jenkins faltered in the early going, Werth became an everyday player for the world-champion Phillies in 2008. In a career-high 482 PA, he turned in a .382 wOBA and a .273/.363/.498 line. His control of the zone remained similar (12 BB%, 28.5 K%), but Werth also translated his athleticism to the base paths by swiping 20 bags in 21 attempts. Lefties continued to feel the pain (.303/.368/.652) while righties held him in check (.255/.360/.407). Werth’s broad base of skills (walks, pop, plus defense and base running prowess) allowed him to post 5.2 Value Wins. His open-market worth was a stunning $23.4 million- talk about a sweet return on investment.

The Phillies rewarded the arbitration-eligible right fielder during the offseason, inking him to a two-year, $10M contract. Even if Werth regresses somewhat, the deal looks like a bargain for the club.

Going forward, the 29 year-old projects to post another impressive campaign in 2009. His overall line might not look as pretty- as an everyday guy, he’ll see a higher percentage of plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers- but his on-base adeptness, decent power production and 20 SB potential make Werth worth a draft pick in all leagues.

What should we make of Adam Miller?

The right-handed pitching prospect has been frustrating the Cleveland Indians organization and its fans since he was selected out of a Texas high school with the 31st overall selection in the 2003 draft. Now 24, he has yet to make his MLB debut despite entering his seventh pro season (Top high-school prospects usually take about four years to sniff the Majors).

Miller has lasted a full season in the minors only once – in 2006 and he won 15 games in Double-A with a 2.75 ERA (3.03 FIP), 129 hits allowed in 153.2 innings, as well as rates of 2.52 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The next two seasons at Triple-A, he managed a total of just 25 games (17 starts) and allowed 94 hits in 94 innings. The latest injury problem for Miller has been a tendon in a finger on his pitching hand and it’s already caused him issues this spring, which is worrisome to say the least.

Miller entered the spring with a very good shot of making the team as a reliever, which would have theoretically helped his chances of staying healthy. He’s probably Triple-A bound for the third straight season now, but he could make his MLB debut before long. Cleveland has pretty good depth in the starting rotation, although few can match Miller’s potential – as his stuff is still solid with a fastball that can touch the upper 90s with a dominating slider. The health of two fellow injury-prone starters, Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes, could eventually open up a spot for Miller. New closer Kerry Wood, formerly of the Cubs, is also an injury risk, which could create a hole in the bullpen.

From a fantasy perspective, Miller will likely be extremely frustrating – as a starter or reliever. He has the stuff to dominate – and he could be an impact arm during the 2009 season at the Major League level. But he could also break your heart if you rely on him too heavily.