Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are inextricably linked. Both reside in the American League Central, patrolling center field with aplomb while displaying the most diverse set of tools this side of Home Depot. While Sizemore deservedly sits near the top of any draft list that you’ll find, Granderson just does not seem to receive a proper level of admiration. Take this ESPN projection list, for instance. Grady garners first-place honors among center fielders, but Granderson ranks only ninth. While I’m not here to dissuade you from taking Sizemore first, I think it’s worth pointing out that Curtis comes equipped with many of the same virtues, and potentially at a bargain price. Let’s compare our two gifted fly-catchers.

On-Base Ability

Sizemore has posted OBP’s of .375, .390 and .374 over the past three seasons. A highly disciplined hitter (his career Outside-Swing% is 18.8%, compared to a league Avg. near 25%), Sizemore has drawn a free pass between 13-14% over the past two seasons.

Granderson is not quite as patient, but he still gets his fair share of base on balls. Granderson’s OBP’s from 2006-2008 are .335, .361 and .365. He worked a walk 11.4% of the time in 2008 (7.8% in ’07) while improving his O-Swing% from 23.4% in 2007 to 19.8% this past season.

Advantage: Sizemore

Power

Sizemore and Granderson have posted near identical Isolated Power figures during their respective big league careers, with Granderson (.214) ahead of Sizemore (.212) by the slightest of margins. Granderson held a big advantage in 2007, with a .250 ISO compared to Grady’s .185. However, Granderson’s number was due in part to an absolutely ridiculous twenty-three triples. With a more reasonable but still lofty 13 three-baggers in 2008, Curtis saw his ISO settle in at .213, while Grady smacked 33 bombs with a .233 ISO.

Advantage: Push

Base Stealing

When I think of base stealing, I tend to think of doctors. Specifically, the Hippocratic Oath. Some wild, unrestrained runners would serve their teams well by swearing to “above all, do no harm.” A properly leveraged SB can be a very smart play, but the relative value of a stolen base isn’t quite what it’s cracked up to be: according to numbers guru Tom Tango, a SB is worth approximately +.19 runs while a CS chops off a pernicious -.46 runs.

The break-even rate on a SB (that is, the point at which a player is no longer doing harm to his team) is about 67 percent, according to The Book. This might sound abstract, but it has fantasy baseball applications as well: a guy who racks up the SB’s might help you in one category, but if he’s stealing with the “success” rate of a Ryan Theriot (22 SB/13 CS in ’08), he’s costing you possible runs.

While some players compile huge SB totals while costing their club on the base paths, both Sizemore and Granderson have shown the ability to provide quantity and quality. Sizemore has been the consistent SB threat, swiping 22 bags in ’06 (78.6% success rate), 33 in ’07 (76.7%) and 38 in 2008 (88.4%).

Granderson was just about the most effective thief in the game in 2007, snagging 26 SB’s in 27 attempts (96.3%). He didn’t really use those wheels as much this past season, however, nabbing 12 bags in 16 attempts.

Advantage: Sizemore

2009 Projections

CHONE

Sizemore: .286/.386/.503, 28 SB
Granderson: .276/.350/.474, 14 SB

Oliver

Sizemore: .273/.357/.473 (no SB projections)
Granderson: .278/.347/.484

PECOTA

Sizemore: .269/.367/.493, 27 SB
Granderson: .266/.342/.467, 11 SB

Sizemore is very likely the superior player, but don’t forget about the guy holding court in Detroit, either. MVN’s Jeff Freels recently compiled a collection of ADP figures from the likes of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo which showed Sizemore with an ADP of 5. He’s worth that, to be sure. But Granderson? He rated 52nd. If you aren’t fortunate enough to snag the across-the-board production of a Sizemore or a Carlos Beltran, Granderson could be a steal in the 4th or 5th round of your draft, particularly if he turns it loose on the bases once again.

After three straight seasons of declining saves totals, Mariano Rivera rebounded to post 39 in 2009, his highest total since he notched 43 in 2005. Rivera is a wonder, but he faces long odds to match his saves total from last year in 2009. Trevor Hoffman is the only pitcher in MLB history to post 39 or more saves at age 39 (or above), the age Rivera will be this season.

Yet the mock draft crowd has faith in Rivera, making him on average the fifth reliever picked in drafts. He has an ADP of 83, making him a late-seventh-round pick. Assuming you want a reliever at that spot, is Rivera a good choice?

There has been no drop-off in velocity with his famous cutter and Rivera has been able to maintain excellent K/9 numbers.

But there are three factors that helped Rivera to his outstanding 2008 season, when he was the second-best reliever in the game behind Francisco Rodriguez. First, Rivera had a .232 BABIP, over 100 points lower than he did in 2007. Second, he posted the lowest walk rate of his career with a 0.76 BB/9 mark. And third, Rivera had the highest strand rate of his career with an 87.6 percent LOB%.

Rivera has had an ERA under two in five of the last six years. There is no reason to expect him to fall off a cliff in 2009. But given his age and his incredible peripherals last season, there is not much reason to expect a repeat of 2008, either. The mock drafters are knocking him down but I would suggest not far enough.

Instead of Rivera in the seventh round, why not wait a round and take Joakim Soria, he of the 97 ADP? Or wait two rounds and take Jose Valverde, he of the back-to-back 40-save seasons. These two pitchers do not have the name recognition of Rivera, but are likely to put up comparable or better seasons as the venerable Yankees closer.

Being a second-tier young arm in the Tampa Bay Rays organization is a sure-fire path to anonymity. Everywhere you look, there’s a potential all-star taking the bump. There’s the Shields/Kazmir/Garza three-headed monster at the big league level (with everyone’s favorite southpaw, David Price, waiting in the wings).

In the upper minors, there’s Wade Davis and his low-90’s/hammer curve mix, the rehabbing Jacob McGee and the impressive track record (if ordinary stuff) of Mitch Talbot. And don’t look now, but there’s another wave of absurdly gifted hurlers in the offing, led by Jeremy Hellickson, Nick Barnese, Matt Moore and Kyle Lobstein.

As such, it’s very easy for good-not-great pitchers to get lost in the shuffle (see Sonnanstine, Andy). Two guys with little fanfare who might get the chance to crack Tampa’s rotation out of spring training are righties Jeffrey Niemann and Jason Hammel.

If it feels as though Niemann has been kicking around prospect charts for half a decade, well, that’s because he has. The 6-9, 280 pound behemoth was supposed to become one of those untouchable building blocks of a contending Rays club when he was selected 4th overall in the 2004 draft, but he has compiled all of 16 frames in the bigs to this point. The $5.2 million man, signed to a major league contract, is now optionless to boot.

Niemann has dealt with shoulder maladies (including surgery during the ’05 offseason), but he’s never had much problem fooling batters with a low-to-mid 90’s heater and an occasionally plus slider. The former Owl has punched out over a hitter per inning in the minors (9.12 K/9). His control is just so-so, with 3.4 BB/9, and he once again battled a shoulder injury last April after a brief stint in Tampa.

Durability is an issue moving forward- the 26 year-old has never cracked the 150-inning mark in a season, and his stabbing arm action makes more than a few people nervous. Baseball America also notes that he “requires more time than most pitchers to get loose”, so the ‘pen might not be some panacea for his shoulder woes. Despite his warts, Niemann would rank as one of the better pitching prospects in some organizations.

Hammel is not a prospect anymore, but the 2002 10th-round pick has yet to really define a role on the club, pinballing back and forth between starting and relieving over the past three seasons. Hammel hasn’t exactly lit it up in either spot, with FIP’s of 5.26, 5.05 and 5.25 from 2006 to 2008.

His deep repertoire (low-90’s fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and mid-80’s changeup) worked wonders at AAA (8.3 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 in 259 IP), but his lack out of an out-pitch harms him at the highest level. The big boys haven’t fished at Hammel’s off-speed stuff as much (6.08 K/9, 22.3 O-Swing%), and he does not have the razor-sharp control (4.17 BB/9) or groundball tendencies (43.8 GB%) to stick his head out above a sea of other pitching talent.

That’s not to say Hammel can’t be useful in the back end of a rotation- he’s just in the wrong organization. There’s little distinguishing a guy like Hammel from, say, Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens, save for opportunity. It’s just that Hammel must wage war with Price to secure a spot, while Karstens takes on the Virgil Vasquez’s of the world.

Carlos Pena followed up his monster 2007 season with a disappointing year. Last year’s highlights for Pena were hitting 31 HR and driving in 102, which led to a $10 season according to Last Player Picked. The mock draft crowd is expecting a bounce back season in 2009 for the Tampa Bay slugger, as they have given him an ADP of 65 according to the latest rankings at Mock Draft Central.

Pena has great power, but it was unlikely that he was going to match his 2007 HR output. That year, he had a 29.1 percent HR/FB ratio, the fourth-highest mark in the majors. His career mark in the category is 19.7 percent. As expected, Pena fell off in 2008, dropping to an 18.8 percent mark last year, although he got a boost by hitting a career-best 50.3 percent of his batted balls in the air.

Another area where Pena was likely to regress last year was in his AVG. In 2007, he posted a career-high with a .282 mark. A lifetime .251 hitter, Pena produced a .247 average last season. Looking forward, none of the five projection systems show Pena coming anywhere close to his 2007 AVG. Marcel, which uses a weighted-average of the past three seasons, has the highest mark at .261 while the rest have him in the .250s.

It is likely that Pena will be below average in both AVG and SB so he really has to make hay in the other three categories. But there is no reason to expect the 31-year old to come close to duplicating the power numbers from his career-year of 2007. Plus he has never scored a ton of runs, with a career high of 99.

Add it all together and we have an overvalued player. Last year Pena was the 17th-best player with 1B eligibility, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. He has the 10th-best ADP for a first-base eligible player this year. The Bill James projection, usually the most optimistic, has Pena with a .254-31-90-77-2 line.

I would expect Chris Davis, Carlos Delgado and Joey Votto to all beat that line. Garrett Atkins, Aubrey Huff and Derrek Lee could post better numbers, and it would not surprise me. The bottom line is not to reach for Pena if you get shut out from the top first basemen.

From the moment the Los Angeles Dodgers plucked James Loney out of prep powerhouse Elkins High (Texas) back in 2002, scouts lauded his silky-smooth left-handed swing. A two-way phenom who could dial it up into the low-90’s on the mound, Loney was nonetheless preferred by the Dodgers for his feats in the batter’s box. While few doubted that Loney would spray line drives all over the field, his power ceiling was subject to considerably more debate.

It’s been seven years since Los Angeles made Loney the 19th overall pick, and guess what? We still don’t know how much thump the 25 year-old will show in the long term. His minor league career was often schizophrenic, as he posted a combined .296/.362/.430 line. That’s garden-variety production from a fellow playing the pre-eminent power position on the diamond, but Loney continued to rank prominently on most prospect lists on the faith that his doubles power would eventually lead to more frequent round-trippers…

2003, High-A Vero Beach (Age 19)
.276/.337/.400, .124 ISO, 9.2 BB%, 17 K%
Baseball America Prospect Ranking: #42 overall (4th in LA system)
Prospect Handbook comment: “A disciplined hitter with good pitch recognition and a classic lefthanded stroke that recalls Mark Grace, Loney sprays line drives to all fields and has power to the alleys. He’s still growing and projects to hit 30 homers annually.”

(note: Loney did break his wrist late in 2002; wrist injuries tend to sap a player’s bat control and power)

2004, AA Jacksonville (Age 20)
.238/.311/.327, .099 ISO, 10.6 BB%, 19 K%
BA Prospect Ranking: #62 overall (4th in LA system)
Prospect Handbook comment: “Loney did bat .314 in the Arizona Fall League and remains one of the game’s most promising first-base prospects…scouts have wondered when Loney’s power is going to come.”

(note: Loney fractured the tip of his middle finger during the season and later developed an infection)

2005, AA Jacksonville (Age 21)
.284/.357/.419, .135 ISO, 11.7 BB%, 17.3 K%
BA Prospect ranking: 11th in LA system
Prospect Handbook comment: “Following three seasons marred by wrist and finger injuries, Loney finally stayed healthy in 2005…but he hit just 11 homers, and scouts continue to wonder if he’ll have enough power to be a regular first baseman in the big leagues.”

You get the picture. Most everyone loved the swing and kept the faith that Loney would eventually hit the ball with force. But, as the prospect rankings slipped and the slugging exploits remained mild, some were beginning to fall off the band wagon.

Just when it looked like Loney’s prospect status might be headed down the drain, the lefty hit the jackpot with AAA Las Vegas in 2006. The Pacific Coast League (and Vegas in particular) is a great place to hit, and Loney’s line was fueled by a lofty batting average, but he turned in a .380/.426/.546 showing that evidently re-started the love affair with scouts. Loney also helped himself with a searing cup of coffee with the Dodgers, batting .284/.342/.559 in 111 PA. He jumped back up the charts, ranking as BA’s 44th best prospect. By this point, Loney was yet again compared to Mark Grace, another southpaw-swinging first-baseman with modest pop but good strike-zone control and contact ability.

Loney regressed back at Sin City in 2007, however, posting a very mild .279/.345/.382 line at Vegas. The youngster still received another opportunity to break into the big league lineup in June, as Nomar Garciaparra’s bat was no-mas (.307 wOBA in ’07). Loney seemingly made good on those power prognostications, posting a tantalizing .389 wOBA (.331/.381/.538), a .200-plus ISO (.206) and 15 bombs in 375 PA.

So that’s it, right? Loney was the greatest thing since Vin Scully and bopped happily ever after?

Not quite. Rather than maintaining that boost in the extra-base hit department, Loney turned in a rather Graceian .289/.338/.434 line in 2008, with 13 taters in 651 PA. His ISO (.145) was the fourth-lowest among first baseman qualifying for the batting title, ranking ahead of only underpowered peers such as Casey Kotchman, Ryan Garko and Daric Barton. While it’s probably best not to get worked up over a one-year platoon split, southpaws did silence Loney to the tune of .249/.303/.361.

Loney is a mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a Dodger Dog. Any time one feels confident in mapping out his future, he unexpectedly takes a 180 degree turn. There’s a fine line between asset and liability at a spot like first base. With the positional standard being so high (the average MLB first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 in 2008), singles-and-doubles-hitting batsmen aren’t all that valuable; they’re just sort of there.

Loney is still just going to be 25 this year and holds a career .303/.353/.480 line in the majors, so he’s certainly not without talent. But it seems most will end up disappointed if he turns out to be the next Sean Casey. Holding the title of “Mayor” could be sort of a letdown if you were expected to become president of a young and immensely talented ballclub.

Yesterday, we took a look at some of the pitchers that were recently demoted to the minors. Today, we’ll highlight some position players – who could still have impacts on the MLB 2009 season – that were sent down to the minors in the last few days.

After a breakout 2008 season, Drew Sutton has positioned himself to be the Houston Astros’ second baseman of the future. For the time being, though, it appears that Kaz Matsui, despite currently hitting .054 in 37 spring at-bats, will be ‘The Man’ while Sutton continues to work on his game in Triple-A. Last season in Double-A, the 25-year-old infielder hit .317/.408/.523 with 20 homers and 20 steals in 520 Double-A at-bats. Sutton also hit very well in the Arizona Fall League.

The Pirates demoted two third-base prospects in recent days in Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, both former No. 1 draft picks by the organization. Alvarez has a much higher ceiling than Walker, who could eventually become trade bait – unless one of the two players moves somewhere else on the diamond. Despite not having a minor league at-bat yet, after signing late last year, Alvarez may be more MLB-ready than Walker, who spent 2008 in Triple-A and hit .242 with a walk rate of 5.4%. Walker hit .231 this spring in 39 at-bats, while Alvarez killed the ball with a .444 average in just 18 at-bats. Fellow youngster Andy LaRoche will have first shot at the third-base job in Pittsburgh and is hitting .483 in 29 at-bats.

He doesn’t have a ceiling as high as some of the other players on this list but Tug Hulett has the potential to be a solid regular – or a utility player capable of hitting .270-.280 with more than his fair share of walks. He was obtained off waivers by the Royals from the Seattle Mariners organization during a 40-man roster crunch and had a shot at being KC’s second baseman in 2009. However, displaced outfielder Mark Teahen is having a lights-out spring and could end up at the position despite average-at-best defense. Hulett received just nine spring at-bats.

Jarrett Hoffpauir has posted some solid numbers in the last couple of seasons in the Cardinals organization. Combined with the club’s desperate need for a second baseman, Hoffpauir seemed like a perfect fit. However, despite hitting .333 in 18 at-bats without a strikeout, the 25 year old was an early spring cut. The Cardinals organization appears to favor outfielder-turned-second-baseman Skip Schumaker and minor league vet Joey Thurston. Another surprising early cut for the Cardinals, outfielder Brian Barton spent the entire 2008 season with the club after being a Rule 5 draft pick out of the Cleveland organization.

The White Sox demoted catcher Cole Armstrong, 25, to the minors yesterday. He was an early favorite to back-up veteran A.J. Pierzynski, but both players are left-handed batters, which hurt Armstrong’s chances. The job will now likely go to someone like minor league vet Corky Miller or Chris Stewart. The club could also consider a veteran castoff like Josh Bard, who was just let go by the Red Sox.

In 2007, Magglio Ordonez posted a .363-28-139-117-4 line, easily his best work in five years. However, he did this in large part thanks to a .385 BABIP, the fifth-highest mark in the majors. In 2008, with a still-high .338 BABIP, Ordonez checked in with a .317-21-103-72-1 line. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, it was the 47th-best hitting season in the majors last year.

The latest numbers over at Mock Draft Central have Ordonez with an ADP of 64. With 10 pitchers with a higher ADP than 64, the mockers are expecting at least a little fall back from Ordonez in 2009.

In order to justify that ADP, Ordonez will need another high BABIP. Fortunately, all five of the projection systems see him bettering his lifetime mark of .320 in the category. Ordonez has always been a good line drive hitter, he does not strike out very much and even at age 34, he ran well enough to beat out 11 infield hits last year.

But what can we expect from Ordonez in the power categories? For five straight seasons, Ordonez hit 29 or more home runs. But in his last three healthy years, he has posted HR totals of 24-28-21. The easy answer is that he went from a great park for homers in Chicago to a merely good one in Detroit.

From 2000-2002, Ordonez hit 62 HR at home and 39 on the road. Contrast that to 2006-2008, when he hit 38 HR in Comerica compared to 35 on the road.

But it is not just the ballpark. Pitchers seem to fear Ordonez less than they used to back in his Chicago days. Last year, he saw fastballs on 63.9 percent of his pitches, an unusually high number for a 30-HR threat. That was the 23rd-highest percentage of fastballs by any batter in the majors. He is surrounded on the list by weak-hitting middle infielders and catchers, and outfielders with no power. Among power hitters, only Matt Holliday and Manny Ramirez saw a greater percentage of fastballs.

The projection systems show him hitting 20-24 HR in 2009. It would not be unreasonable for him to meet these projections but at the same time it seems clear that his 30-HR days are a thing of the past.

Bottom line is that while Ordonez is capable of meeting his ADP, there is absolutely no upside if you spend an early sixth-round pick on him. And while there is nothing wrong with a player matching what you expect from him, you have to counter that with the risk involved. With Ordonez, the risk is that his BABIP fails to meet the lofty expectations and instead of being a plus with a .310+ AVG he ends up being neutral or even a negative in the category.

Earlier today, we examined the man who anchors the keystone for the Angels, Howie Kendrick. As an awfully liberal swinger, the 25 year-old is an interesting study. A reader brought up what I find to be a fascinating bit of information regarding Kendrick’s BABIP splits: he has a significantly higher BABIP on flyballs than the average hitter.

Ordinarily, BABIP tends to be higher on groundballs than it is for flyballs. Take a look at the American League batting splits over the past three seasons, via Baseball-Reference:

2006
Groundballs: .247/.247/.271
Flyballs: .232/.226/.618

2007
Groundballs: .246/.246/.266
Flyballs: .218/.212/.572

2008
Groundballs: .243/.243/.263
Flyballs: .218/.212/.565

Nothing is especially surprising here- BABIP is higher on grounders than it is for flyballs, but flyballs do a lot more damage (those grounders go for singles while the flyballs that aren’t caught are almost always a double or a triple).

Now, take a look at Kendrick’s career marks:

GB: .261/.261/.280
FB: .333/.323/.658

Granted, Kendrick has a total of 997 career plate appearances, so we’re dealing with a small amount of data here. But his flyball BABIP is way, way above that of the AL average. What could be causing that?

Perhaps the answer lies in how a ball put into play is classified. Fellow Fan Graphs author Brian Cartwright wrote a very interesting piece on line drive rates by stadium, noting that there is a wide disparity between parks in terms of how often a ball put in play is classified as a line drive. From Brian’s article, here’s the chart (ballpark name and line drive factor in bold):

PARK_NAME First Last PAw LDf
Veterans Stadium 2003 2003 4768 1.23
Ballpark Arlington 2003 2008 26850 1.18
Tokyo Dome 2004 2008 283 1.13
Great American 2003 2008 28827 1.11
Coors Field 2003 2008 29158 1.10
Busch Stadium III 2006 2008 13967 1.09
Kauffman Stadium 2003 2008 27530 1.09
Nationals Park 2008 2008 4790 1.09
Rogers Centre 2003 2008 27513 1.08
Phone Co Park 2003 2008 29439 1.07
Stade Olympique 2003 2004 7684 1.07
Busch Stadium II 2003 2005 14280 1.06
Tropicana Field 2003 2008 27830 1.06
Comerica Park 2003 2008 28008 1.06
Citizens Bank Park 2004 2008 24640 1.06
Miller Park 2003 2008 29354 1.06
RFK Stadium 2005 2007 14885 1.05
Oakland Coliseum 2003 2008 26719 1.03
Safeco Field 2003 2008 26683 1.01
Comiskey Park II 2003 2008 28644 1.00
Yankee Stadium 2003 2008 28722 1.00
Dolphin Stadium 2003 2008 29849 1.00
Jacobs Field 2003 2008 28136 0.99
Camden Yards 2003 2008 29103 0.99
P.N.C. Park 2003 2008 27652 0.98
Bank One Ballpark 2003 2008 28810 0.98
Hiram Bithorn 2003 2004 2598 0.98
Jack Murphy 2003 2003 4943 0.98
Dodger Stadium 2003 2008 29555 0.98
Wrigley Field 2003 2008 28663 0.96
PetCo Park 2004 2008 24432 0.95
Shea Stadium 2003 2008 29299 0.92
Fenway Park 2003 2008 28311 0.86
Turner Field 2003 2008 29016 0.86
Anaheim Stadium 2003 2008 26490 0.86
Minute Maid Park 2003 2008 28271 0.82
Metrodome 2003 2008 28048 0.80

As you can see, Anaheim has a Line Drive Factor of 0.86- a batted ball is 14% less likely to be coded as a line drive in Angel Stadium. Why that is, I can’t say with any degree of certainty. A confluence of factors, such as scoring bias, ballpark environment and talent level of the batter play a part.

Perhaps the reason why Kendrick has such a high BABIP on flyballs (and a relatively low line drive percentage) is that should-be line-drives are being classified as flyballs instead, thus inflating his flyball BABIP and depressing his line drive rate. Overall, Angels hitters posted a .226 BABIP on flyballs in 2008, above the aforementioned .218 AL average. This is not a one-year trend, either: LAA hitters had a .228 BABIP on flyballs in 2007 (.218 AL average) and a .253 BABIP on flyballs in 2006 (.232 AL average).

What does this all mean? Well, it could have an effect on how we evaluate Angels hitters, and hitters in ballparks where a significantly lower or higher amount of line drives are classified. It has become a rather common practice to estimate a player’s expected BABIP by using primarily his line drive rate. Intuitively, it makes sense: a line drive is by far the most likely batted ball to fall for a hit (.730 BABIP in the AL in 2008).

However, given the great fluctuations in how often line drives are coded, we have to ask ourselves how much predictive value that measure really has. Kendrick has a career 17 LD%- how much of that is due to his propensity to hit line drives, and how much of that is due to a decision made by the scorer (which, in the case of Angels hitters, would mean fewer line drives coded and a lower LD%)? Line drive percentage is certainly worth looking at, but at the end of the day, it’s a subjective measure determined by the official scorer.

We’ll take a quick break from previewing the top impact rookies for 2009 to take a look at some of the prospects that were sent down to the minor leagues in recent days. This post will touch on some of the pitchers that are near-MLB-ready, while a later post will look at the hitters.

Brett Cecil (Toronto) had an impressive spring and almost made the club despite having just been drafted in 2007. The former college reliever was also slowed by arm problems early in 2008 and had a strict pitch count for much of the season. Now a starter, the southpaw will begin the year in Triple-A to work on his fastball command, but he could surface before long with the likes of Matt Clement and Scott Richmond still in the mix for the Jays starting rotation. He has above-average stuff – including an 88-93 mph fastball – for a lefty.

Jose Ceda (Florida) was acquired in the off-season from the Cubs for reliever Kevin Gregg. Although still raw, Ceda was considered a long-shot candidate for saves in the Florida bullpen for 2009. A sore shoulder has kept the hard-throwing right-hander from pitching in game situations this spring. The 22 year old struck out 42 batters in 30.1 Double-A innings in 2008.

Teammates Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman (Baltimore) are arguably the top two pitchers in the Orioles system but both were reassigned to the minor league camp and will open the year in either Double-A or Triple-A. Given the state of the big club’s starting rotation (Adam Eaton, Danys Baez, etc.), both pitchers could be in the Majors by May or June. Arrieta, 23, allowed just 80 hits in 113 High-A innings in 2008. Tillman, 20, allowed 115 hits in 135.2 Double-A innings in 2008. Both have the ceiling of No. 2 starters at the Major League level. David Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A after appearing in just one spring game (and one inning) in which he walked two. He could see his first MLB action as a long man in the bullpen at some point in 2009, although he could also get a shot at starting. Hernandez allowed 112 hits in 142 Double-A innings in 2008.

With the veteran starters pitching well, the Cardinals felt comfortable sending down pitching prospects Jess Todd and Mitch Boggs. Todd, a reliever-turned-starter, struggled a bit this spring by allowing nine hits in 6.1 innings and will likely begin the year in Triple-A. He’s the clubs best starting pitching prospect, so he could make his MLB debut before too long if Chris Carpenter’s injury woes pop up again, or if Joel Pineiro and/or Todd Wellemeyer start pitching like their old selves. Boggs’ ceiling is below that of Todd’s but he also has more MLB experience, after making eight appearances in 2008. That said, he allowed a 7.41 ERA at the MLB level. He’s battled shoulder problems this spring so he’ll get that sorted out in Triple-A.

Wade Davis and Mitch Talbot (Tampa Bay) both received a demotion to Triple-A, thanks to the club’s depth in the starting rotation (Who would have said that two years ago?). Davis is considered the club’s brightest pitching prospect (not named David Price) and could be the first starter called up if injuries strike. Talbot is a little under-the-radar as a prospect, but he’s won 26 games in the past two seasons at Triple-A and has little left to prove in the minors. The 25-year-old hurler is a little too hittable, though, and is probably a long-term reliever at the MLB level.

Although technically no longer a rookie, Ian Kennedy (New York AL) has fewer than 60 innings pitched at the Major League level and he was sent packing with a veteran-heavy rotation (plus Joba) already established. Kennedy is quickly falling out of favor in New York and he did not help himself this spring with a 5.91 ERA in four games. He was also out-pitched by fellow youngster Phil Hughes who survived the cuts, although the latter has been struggling with his control.

Howie Kendrick just doesn’t do the whole.. base on balls thing. The Angels’ second baseman, known for prodigious hand-eye coordination, is a product of the Vladimir Guerrero school of “swing-at-anything close.” Kendrick’s ultra-aggressive style served him very well in the minors: he laced one line-drive after another on his way to a career .360/.398/.571 line. With a low whiff rate (about 13%), lightning-quick lumber and some extra-base sock, Kendrick was labeled by many as a batting champion waiting to happen.

The big league results for the 10th-round pick in the 2002 draft have been fairly promising to this point, if not quite up to the very high expectations bestowed upon him. With a little less than 1,000 career plate appearances, Kendrick owns a .330 wOBA, with a .306/.333/.430 line. For a player who turned 25 last July, that’s nothing to be ashamed of in the least. However, it seems as though our would-be hitting champ has stagnated since making his major league debut back in 2006:

2006: 283 PA, .285/.314/.416, 3.3 BB%, 16.5 K%, .131 ISO
2007: 353 PA, .322/.347/.450, 2.6 BB%, 18.0 K%, .127 ISO
2008: 361 PA, .306/.333/.421, 3.4 BB%, 17.1 K%, .115 ISO

It’s certainly possible that Kendrick’s offensive plateau is at least in part due to an unfortunate rash of injuries, particularly a troublesome hamstring nearing chronic status that shelved him twice during the 2008 season (that after a broken bone in his finger during the ’07 campaign). One has to imagine that being in and out of the lineup with such frequency would make it difficult to improve pitch recognition.

With a .300 skill-set at the plate, Kendrick does not need to be a walk machine to provide a significant deal of value to the Angels and fantasy owners. However, as noted with Robinson Cano earlier this offseason, players of Kendrick’s ilk are often anchored to that batting average. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for a guy with a .300 talent level to run into some poor luck on balls in play and end up at .270, at which point the player transforms into something less than an asset. Is Kendrick perhaps a bit too aggressive?

Kendrick’s Outside Swing Percentages and Outside Contact Percentages, 2006-2008

2006: 34.9 O-Swing%, 52.8 O-Contact%
2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 56.7 O-Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 49.1 O-Contact%

(The league averages are about 25% for O-Swing and 60% for O-Contact%)

It’s should come as no surprise to see that Kendrick ventures outside of the strike zone on a regular basis. Among hitters with at least 300 PA, Kendrick ranked 8th in O-Swing% in 2007 and 11th in 2008. However, he is making contact on such pitches at a rate that’s below the league average. It’s difficult to say for certain, but perhaps Kendrick’s willingness to chase so many offerings out of the zone has lead to a high groundball rate and subsequent mild power displays:

2006: 1.6 GB/FB, 52.2 GB%
2007: 1.83 GB/FB, 54.3 GB%
2008: 2.08 GB/FB, 54 GB%

Kendrick’s 2008 GB/FB ratio ranked among the 20 highest in the majors. Suffice it to say, chopping the ball into the infield grass is not a strategy conducive to feats of offensive strength: the list also features the Pierres, Gathrights and Luis Castillo’s of the world, and the highest slugging percentage in the group is a tie between San Francisco’s Fred Lewis and Washington’s Christian Guzman (huh?) at .440.

Howie Kendrick is an exceptionally gifted young player, and I am in no way advocating some major shift in batting strategy; trying to force a player to adhere to a certain style when his talents suggest he could be successful at his own game is foolish. However, Howie could stand to benefit by laying off just a few more outside pitches. More than anything, though, Kendrick just needs to stay on the field for an extended period of time.