There are a lot of differing opinions on the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija. The former Notre Dame football player was swayed away from a potential National Football League career with a huge pro contract from Chicago (Five-year MLB contract, $10 million). Despite being raw on the mound, the right-handed pitcher has a huge fastball to go along with questionable command and control.

After being selected in the fifth round of the 2006 draft, Samardzija spent less than two years in the minors before making his MLB debut. His minor league numbers were modest: a career ERA of 4.26 with 302 hits allowed in 285 innings (9.5 H/9). He also struck out just 166 batters during that span, good for a rate of 5.2 K/9. His walk rate was 3.6 BB/9.

At the Major League level, Samardzija’s numbers were more impressive, no doubt aided by the fact he moved to the bullpen where he did not need to throw his below-average secondary pitches, which include a nascent change-up (although he still tossed it in slightly more than five percent of the time at the MLB level). The 24-year-old hurler allowed 24 hits in 27.2 innings of work and struggled with his control by posting a walk rate of 4.88 BB/9. Oddly, his strikeout rate was almost 3.0 K/9 higher than his three-year minor league average, with a rate of 8.13 K/9.

At the MLB level, Samardzija averaged around 95 mph with his fastball, which he threw 69 percent of the time. His second pitch was a splitter at 86 mph, followed by a slider at 83 mph. It remains to be seen if Samardzija will be allowed to spend the year in the bullpen or if the Cubs will send him to Triple-A to continue to develop as a starter. If he does remain in the pen, he could be a darkhorse candidate for saves this season although both Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg remain ahead of him on the depth chart. As well, with Rich Harden in the starting rotation, there will always been an opportunity for the No. 6 starter in the organization to get plenty of innings.

It was an injury-plagued season for Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells in 2008. First he missed 26 games due to a broken left wrist and then had to sit out 25 more due to a hamstring injury. After returning on August 10th from the latter injury, Wells hit .318/.365/.566 over his final 189 plate appearances, putting up those numbers with a .291 BABIP as he had 11 HR and 13 SO in that span.

The projection systems do not anticipate a big year from Wells in 2009. All five see him missing significant time, with the CHONE system giving him the most action with 555 at-bats. That is a total that Wells exceeded in five of the six seasons prior to 2008, and he topped 600 at-bats in four of those.

Is Wells now a big injury risk? It is hard not to notice his at-bats have gone from 611-584-427 over the past three seasons. In addition to his two injuries last year, Wells suffered a shoulder injury near the end of 2007, which required surgery. He has also missed time this Spring with a sore hamstring.

In his last healthy season in 2006, Wells put up a top-25 fantasy season among hitters. The last two months of 2008, he showed that he is still capable of putting up big numbers. Wells currently sits with an ADP of 105 according to the latest report over at Mock Draft Central.

Wells is a classic high-risk, high-reward pick. No one will blame you if you shy away from him on Draft Day. However, for my tastes there is just too much upside to pass on him at the end of the ninth round. It seems like Wells has been around forever, but he turned 30 at the end of last year, so it would not be a big surprise to see him put up a healthy season again.

The hamstring injury is a big concern because of the possibility for that to flare up at any time. But his other two injuries were not of the chronic nature. He may no longer be a threat to steal 20 bases, but if running less keeps him on the field more, that is a trade off fantasy owners should be willing to take.

He should be very productive while in the lineup and he offers the possibility of great stats if he can get back to the 150 games played level. If you drafted solid, low-risk guys in the early rounds, you should be able to gamble on a guy like Wells at his current ADP.

Victor Martinez was the top catcher on most draft boards prior to the 2008 season. He had an ADP of 29 following his 2007 season where he hit .301-25-114-78-0. Of course Martinez ended up a big disappointment, as he came down with first a hamstring problem and then an injured elbow.

Martinez ultimately needed surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. When he returned from the disabled list, he hit for disappointing power numbers the final two months of the season.

The mock draft crowd has knocked Martinez down quite a bit this year. He carries an ADP of 80, 51 spots lower than a season ago, and making him on average the fifth catcher off the board.

There have been no reports of problems with the elbow this Spring. Martinez has been a regular in Cleveland’s lineup. He has six extra-base hits, including three home runs, in 38 at-bats, which has led to a .579 slugging mark.

Now, 38 at-bats is not usually anything you want to make any judgments about and Spring Training stats are notoriously misleading. But in the particular case of Martinez, seeing him hit for power is definitely a good sign.

If Martinez can come anywhere close to his 2007 fantasy line, he will be a steal at his current ADP because of the value of those stats from a catcher. With the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, fantasy owners would be wise to bump Martinez over the Twins backstop and put him on a par with Geovany Soto, who carries an ADP of 66.

The Oakland Athletics’ rotation is in between phases. The vaunted “Big Three” of Hudson, Zito and Mulder has long since become a relic of the past, and the latest touted trio of Haren, Harden and Blanton was converted into copious amounts of young, cost-controlled talent. A new wave of high-ceiling arms, led by the one-two punch of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, will soon dominate the headlines.

Until then, the A’s will hope to receive yeoman’s work from second-tier hurlers such as Sean Gallagher, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez. There’s another name penciled into the rotation who could provide quality work despite a lack of press clippings: Dallas Braden.

The southpaw stayed on the draft board until the 24th round back in 2004, considered nothing more than an organizational filler. Scouts questioned how his wacky repertoire would play in pro ball- Braden was known for a screwball-like pitch that gave hitters fits, but the offering was supported only by high-80’s heat, a flat slider and an average changeup.

Undeterred by a lack of scouting love, Braden tore up less advanced batters between Vancouver (Northwest League) and Kane County (A-Ball) in 2004. In 42 IP, he posted a 63/9 K/BB ratio while surrendering 37 hits. That small sample was not enough to change opinions, though, as Braden went into the 2005 season outside of Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects.

Braden received more of a challenge in ’05, as he was deployed to the High-A California League (where pitching prospects go to die). He continued to whiff opposing hitters like some Randy Johnson doppelganger, with 64 K’s in and 11 walks in 43.2 frames (2.68 ERA). Bumped to the Texas League for the second half, the screwballer did not dominate, but held his own with a 3.90 ERA in 97 frames. Braden posted rates of 6.6 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9.

The Texas Tech alum put his name on the prospect map, coming in at number 19 in BA’s Oakland rankings. Said BA: “he gets hitters out with guile, command and a trick pitch.” Things weren’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as Braden was shut down in August with a tired arm.

That “tired arm” would turn out to be more nefarious, as Braden went under the knife for shoulder surgery during the offseason. After making so much progress and fighting his perceived limitations in ’05, the lefty suffered what was essentially a lost season. He tossed only 37 innings between rookie ball, High-A and Double-A, posting a 55/8 K/BB ratio. Already something of a red-headed stepchild in the scouting community, Braden fell off of the prospect radar yet again.

Beginning the ’07 campaign back at AA Midland, Braden quickly earned a promotion to Sacramento after posting a 13/3 K/BB ratio in 12 IP to start the year. With the River Cats (a dynastic AAA affiliate, if such an entity exists), Braden fooled 10.41 batters per nine innings with 2.53 BB/9. His FIP was a sparkling 2.64 in 64 frames.

The 6-1, 195 pounder also saw time with the A’s, at times filling in for the vastly talented but notoriously brittle Rich Harden in the rotation. Braden’s ERA (6.72) in 20 appearances (14 starts) made him look like the AL’s answer to John Van Benschoten, but the underlying results weren’t that bad. He posted a 4.50 FIP in 72.1 IP with 6.84 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9, but Braden was felled by a .355 BABIP and a 56.4% strand rate.

Back with Sacramento in 2008, Braden turned in ace-like numbers despite a “soft, softer, softest” arsenal of pitches. With 9.11 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9, he compiled a 3.50 FIP in 53.1 IP (HR were a slight problem, with 1.18 per nine). Braden was called up to Oakland on several occasions, making 19 appearances (10 starts) in total. Featuring 88 MPH cheese, a 78 MPH slider, a mid-70’s change and perhaps an occasional screwball, Braden managed a 4.57 FIP in 71.2 innings (5.15 K/9, 3.14 BB/9).

As a soft-tosser with flyball tendencies (career 37.7 GB%), Braden has little star potential. However, he’s in the right venue for a hurler who puts the ball in the air frequently (The Coliseum has depressed HR production by 13% over the past three years, according to the Bill James Handbook) and he’ll be in the rotation from the outset in 2009. CHONE forecasts a 4.24 FIP for Braden, with 6.79 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Most A’s fans and prospect mavens are anxiously awaiting the debuts of Cahill and Anderson, and deservedly so. But this former Red Raider is worth a look as he holds down the fort in the meantime.

The Colorado Rockies organization has always had a deep outfield in terms of depth and production, but Dexter Fowler could end up being one of the best players to ever graze the pasture. And his impact on the club could begin in 2009. The athletic outfielder is having a solid spring but it remains to be seen if he has played well enough to wrestle the starting center field job away from Ryan Spilborghs, who is hitting .386/.463/.818 with four home runs and five stolen bases. If Fowler does not win the starting job, he will certainly play everyday in Triple-A rather than sit on the bench in the Majors.

The 23-year-old prospect had a solid season in Double-A in 2008 with a line of .335/.431/.515, as well as 20 stolen bases and nine home runs, in 421 at-bats. Fowler posted rates of 13.4 BB% and 21.1 K%. He also earned his first call-up to the Majors, where he hit .154 in 26 at-bats. So far this spring, Fowler is hitting .313/.370/.438 with four stolen bases.

The outfield picture has changed somewhat from last year after the club traded Matt Holliday to the Oakland Athletics during the off-season, and also brought in young outfielders Matt Murton and Carlos Gonzalez via trades. Other players in the mix for a roster spot include Brad Hawpe and Seth Smith. Dan Ortmeier and Scott Podsednik are attempting to make the club as non-roster invitees to spring.

The switch hitter was drafted in the 14th round out of high school in 2004, but would have been selected much higher if he had not had college offers from a number of schools, including Harvard. Defensively, he is an excellent center fielder. He stole more than 40 bases in 2006, but at 6’5” he could easy fill out and lose some of his quickness. A future 20-20 season is not out of the question, if he can learn to drive the ball more.

If he can obtain a starting outfield job in the first couples of months in 2009, Fowler could have a definite impact on Fantasy teams. He has the potential to provide some steals, as well as a respectable average. The power, though, will have to wait for 2010 and beyond.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s examine Colorado’s probable left fielder, Smith.

Smith came to the University of Mississippi as a well-regarded quarterback prospect. However, he got stuck behind some fellow named Eli Manning and never took a snap for the Rebels. While Smith’s gridiron dreams were grounded, he excelled on the diamond and was selected by the Rockies in the second round of the 2004 amateur draft.

While Spilborghs struggled initially in the minors, Smith made a mockery of rookie ball (as he should have given his experience) with an OPS in excess of 1.000. Sent to a more age-appropriate level to begin the ’05 season, Smith held his own in the Cal League with a .300/.353/.458 line. Baseball America was just mildly impressed (ranking Smith 15 in the Rockies system), as college players showing doubles power in a hitter’s paradise don’t typically elicit rave reviews.

Promoted to AA Tulsa in ’06, Smith stepped up his game a bit with a .294/.361/.483 showing, displaying more power (.189 ISO) and making plenty of contact (14.1 K%). BA again rated Smith toward the middle of Colorado’s top 30 farm products, ranking him 16th while noting that AAA Colorado Springs would serve as “the perfect venue to turn some of his doubles into home runs.”

Deployed to AAA to begin the 2007 campaign, Smith smacked 17 taters while batting .317/.381/.528. He topped the .200 ISO mark (.211), no doubt aided by the nine percent increase in runs and doubles produced by Colorado Springs. 2008 brought more of the same at the level in the power department (.202 ISO), but Smith more than doubled his walk rate, from 8% in 2007 to 15.6% in ’08. Summoned to the big leagues in late May, the 6-3, 215 pounder produced a .349 wOBA in 123 PA (.259/.350/.435), again drawing his fair share of free passes (12.2%).

Smith appears to be the front-runner to replace Holliday in left field, though it’s possible that he ends up in more of a platoon situation. The 26 year-old has devoured right-handed pitching to the tune of .318/.381/.532 in the minors, but port siders have limited him to some walks and singles (.276/.360/.385). Matt Murton, acquired in the Holliday deal, could become Smith’s caddy. Chicago’s erstwhile redheaded step child has a career .311/.382/.484 line versus southpaws.

For 2009, CHONE projects a .362 wOBA for Smith, with a .288/.361/.461 line. PECOTA spat out a .273/.347/.450 prognostication for the former Rebel. Like Spilborghs, Smith is a decent hitter who has two very important things going for him: opportunity and the chance to take his hacks in the hitting mecca that is Coors. There’s some risk that he ends up as only the long half of a platoon, but Smith could give you pretty good output while probably not even requiring a draft pick.

The Colorado Rockies outfield is in a state of transition. The do-everything, “Swiss Army Knife” of fly catchers, Matt Holliday, now resides in Oakland. The future belongs to precocious tool sheds Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, but both appear ticketed for AAA Colorado Springs for additional seasoning. As such, a pair of unheralded home-grown players appear likely to receive everyday playing time for the Rox: Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith.

While neither comes with the championship-caliber upside of a Holliday nor the scouting pedigree of a Fowler, Spilborghs and Smith could provide league-average or better production for a minimal investment. Let’s start with the guy who has spent the past few years wishing that Willy Taveras would just go away (a thought many Rockies fans surely echoed), Spilborghs.

The 29 year-old Spilborghs has been waiting for what seems like an eternity to crack the starting lineup. A little-noted 7th round pick out of U.C. Santa Barbara back in 2002, Spilborghs carried the sort of profile that often makes both scouts and stat-heads skeptical. His early work in the minors was nothing to write Dan O’Dowd about: he turned in a .633 OPS in Low-A as a 22 year-old in ’02, and followed that up with a .281/.372/.445 showing at Asheville in 2003.

The then-24 year-old college product advanced to the High-A California League in 2004, where one expects a polished batter to mash in such a hitter-friendly circuit facing pitchers several years his junior. Instead, Spilborghs slugged .385. Sure, he showed good plate discipline, but he had AAA filler written all over him at this point.

Instead, Spilborghs decided to channel Larry Walker in ’05. He drilled the ball in AA as a Tulsa Driller, ripping off a .341/.435/.525 line, and the mashing continued upon being bumped up to AAA (.339/.405/.551). The same caveats about advanced age and conducive offensive environments still applied, but Spilborghs put himself squarely on the major league radar. He continued to show secondary skills galore at AAA in ’06 and ’07 (splitting those years between the minors and majors), and holds a career .334/.403/.508 line at the level.

The 6-1, 190 pounder has spent the past three seasons as a part-timer for Colorado, with each season a little juicier than the last (.332 wOBA in ’06, .366 in ’07 and .384 in ’08). Aided by Coors, Spilborghs holds a career slash line of .302/.374/.466 in 765 PA. He rarely strays from the strike zone, walking 10.7% of the time and swinging at just 16.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. To boot, his K rate is a reasonable 17.5%.

In 2009, CHONE projects Spilborghs to bat .294/.376/.454, with a .367 wOBA. PECOTA portends a .290/.365/.438 line. That CHONE wOBA places Spilborghs in the company of his old buddy Holliday (though Holliday will play in a far tougher environment and offers SB’s, too) as well as the Dodgers’ Andre Ethier. Those two are better hitters in a neutral context (wOBA is not park-adjusted), but Spilborghs could offer 90% of their production without a premium pick.

The Royals picked Joakim Soria in the Rule 5 draft from the Padres. Two days later he pitched a perfect game in the Mexican League. Soria has a starting pitcher’s repertoire and is one of the few closers to throw four pitches. He will not blow you away with his fastball, but Soria has very good command and he puts batters away with his curve.

FanGraphs shows Soria throwing his curve just under 10 percent of the time. ESPN shows Soria throwing his hook 25 percent of the time when he gets to two strikes on a batter. Overall, opponents hit just .048 against Soria’s deuce.

Soria had nearly a 3.5:1 SO/BB ratio last year. He also did a fine job of keeping the ball in the park, as he allowed only five home runs in 67.1 innings. Batters swung at just 61.7 percent of pitches by Soria in the strike zone, a figure that ranked 19th among all relievers last year. Additionally, he induced swings on balls outside the zone 27.4 percent of the time.

But, much like Mariano Rivera, there are warning signs around Soria, too. He had a microscopic .215 BABIP last year. He also had an 89.5 percent strand rate. Not surprisingly, Soria’s FIP was 3.25 or more than twice his regular ERA. None of these should be dismissed lightly.

Still, on the plus side of the ledger we have Soria’s age (he’ll turn 25 in May), command, repertoire, ability to keep the ball in the park and lack of platoon split. In his brief career, lefties have a .167/.242/.255 line against Soria. So if you want a relief pitcher in the first 10 rounds, the Royals closer is a relative bargain with an ADP of 97.

Jermaine Dye had a career year in 2006 and turned in a top 10 fantasy season for hitters. Predictably he fell off that pace in 2007, a fall aided by a 63-point drop in BABIP and a recurring quadriceps injury. He rebounded in 2008 to be a top 40 fantasy hitter. The mock draft crowd is not convinced that Dye will maintain all of the recovery he made last year, as they have given him an ADP of 86.

The biggest concern surrounding Dye seems to be his AVG. He has a lifetime .276 mark in the category, and all five of the projection systems show him within a few points either way of that mark. Yet Dye has beaten his career average in two of the past three seasons, by 16 and 39 points.

The year in the last three that Dye did not beat his lifetime average he had a .271 BABIP. He has a career .302 mark in the category. Last year Dye had a .305 BABIP and finished with a .292 average.

Another factor in Dye’s poor 2007 season is that he did not take advantage of his home park. After posting a .307/.393/.595 line at U.S. Cellular Field in 2006, Dye hit only .258/.317/.384 at home in 2007. Last year he posted a .336/.388/.608 line in one of the best hitter’s parks in the game.

Earlier, there were reports that the White Sox were looking to move Dye but nothing has come from that so far. If Dye gets to hit 81 games in Chicago, he has a very good chance to exceed his ADP. He is not someone you want to move too far up from his current ranking, which has him as an early eighth-round pick, but Dye is someone who offers upside at his current draft position.

The Washington Nationals and right-hander Shawn Hill had just about the most acrimonious off-season of any team/player combo. Hill, a sinker/slider hurler with a fair amount of talent (but also an unnerving propensity to end up in the trainer’s room or on the surgeon’s table), was eligible for arbitration.

The 27 year-old requested $775,000, while the Nats countered with $500K. Despite the relatively small divide, Washington decided to take its oft-injured starter to arbitration (the only other players reaching an arbitration hearing were Dioner Navarro and Dan Uggla). The Nats did what they do best, and lost the hearing. Hill was set to receive his $775K (in the arbitration process, either that player’s figure or the team’s figure is chosen; there’s no middle ground).

However, the Nats decided to release Hill recently instead of letting him compete in a dilapidated rotation that’s resting its fortune on Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen realizing that “hey, weren’t we supposed to be good or something?” Washington figures to save a very minimal amount of cash through Hill’s unceremonious boot: about $250K, once one considers termination pay as well as the money that will be spent on whomever occupies the roster spot.

If you need some War and Peace– sized reading material, take a look at Hill’s medical history:

Jul 1, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
May 14, 2007: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Sep 24, 2007: Forearm injury, sidelined indefinitely.
Mar 20, 2008: Forearm injury, 15-day DL.
May 27, 2008: Missed 7 games (right elbow inflammation).
May 19, 2008: Right elbow inflammation, day-to-day.
Jun 26, 2008: Forearm injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 25th).

Okay, you get the point: Hill is the right-handed Mike Hampton, with the DNA of a Nomar Garciaparra/Nick Johnson love child. However, when Hill has taken the hill for the Expos/Nationals/glorified AAA affiliate, he’s been pretty effective. Equipped with an oft-utilized 90 MPH sinker (thrown 73.4% of the time; the pitch gets over 10 inches of movement in on the hands of righty batters), Hill has posted a career 4.11 FIP. He keeps the ball on the ground (50.1 GB%) while displaying adequate peripherals (5.67 K/9, 2.92 BB/9). Southpaws often get a good look at his offerings (.302/.355/.475 career), but same-side batters have generally been punchless (.271/.335/.394).

Inked to a minor-league deal by the Padres, Hill enters just about the best situation a starting pitcher could hope for. Petco Park is, of course, pitching Nirvana, suppressing runs by a full 20% over the past three seasons according to the Bill James Handbook.

In addition, the San Diego rotation is anything but settled. Jake Peavy headlines a cast of suspect characters, with Chris Young (whose extreme fly-balling ways are perfectly suited to the ballpark) and Mariners castoff Cha Seung Baek following. Former Giant Kevin Correia (5.10 FIP in 2008) and low-upside college arms Joshua B Geer and Wade Leblanc are other possibilities. Last we heard, Mark Prior is attempting to locate “The Island” from Lost, in hopes of time-jumping back to 2003.

The chances of Shawn Hill throwing a full complement of starts for the Padres are between slim and none, but he could provide some above league-average innings at a bargain-basement price. Hill is a zero-risk signing for the Padres, as well as fantasy owners. No one is going to spend a pick on a guy capable of injuring himself in the process of being activated from the DL, but he’s worth taking a look at if you find yourself in a pinch for pitching.