Our “Prospects in Proper Context” series reaches its end today, as we uncover the most promising bats to grace the AAA Pacific Coast League in 2008. As was the case with the International League, the PCL features an abundance of grizzled minor league veterans at the pinnacle of the wOBA scale: those in the top 10 include Russell Branyan, Micah Hoffpauir, Nelson Cruz, Paul McAnulty, Jason Dubois and Andy Green. However, there was still quite the collection of promising (if imperfect) bats to choose from. Players such as Jeff Clement, Ian Stewart, Sean Rodriguez, Wladimir Balentien and Bryan Anderson just missed the top five.

Here are links to the other seven parts of our prospects series:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League
Eastern League

Triple-A
International League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 150 AB cut-off was used for the list.)

AAA Pacific Coast League offensive levels: Singles (0.89), Doubles (1.08), Triples (1.02), Home Runs (1.12)

1. Colby Rasmus, Cardinals: .335 wOBA (.251/.346/.396)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Memphis): Runs (0.96), Hits (0.97), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.00)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .261/.355/.406
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .216/.290/.321

You might be asking yourself, “how does a guy with those numbers lead off this list?” While Rasmus’ overall line looks tepid, he battled groin and knee injuries (the latter of which prematurely ended his season in July) and he was starting to hit like his old self before going down with the sprained knee (.333/.441/.535 in 99 June AB). A member of the absurdly gifted 2005 outfield draft class, Rasmus had a pristine track record prior to ’08 and has authored a career .277/.366/.485 line. The 6-2, 185 pound lefty is one of the more well-rounded prospects that you’re going to find, as he works the count (career 13 BB%), can sting the ball (.208 ISO), swipes some bags (career 81% success rate, including 15/18 in 2008) and plays a plus center field.

Earlier this offseason, prospect guru Marc Hulet examined Rasmus’ chances of breaking into St. Louis’ crowded outfield and concluded the following:

“Some eyes were raised when Rasmus declined the opportunity to play winter ball to help make up for lost time and perhaps accelerate his big-league timetable. Regardless, he could very well surface in St. Louis by mid-season if he gets off to a respectable start to the 2009 season. Rasmus may initially struggle to hit for average, but he should be productive and Fantasy Baseball owners should track his progress closely.”

Don’t let Rasmus’ 2008 numbers sway you too much: his tools-laden game and past performance suggest this was just a tiny blip for a player who could end up being a championship-caliber performer.

2. Chase Headley, Padres: .401 wOBA (.305/.383/.556)
Age: 24
Position: LF/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Portland): R (0.93), H (0.94), 2B (0.97), HR (1.05)
PAL: .324/.400/.575
MLE: .269/.329/.455

The Padres are rather short on premium young talent, but Headley represents the club’s best chance of cultivating a home-grown stud. The former Tennessee Volunteer has really put a charge into the ball over the past two years: after slugging .426 in 2005 and .434 in 2006, Headley posted a .580 mark at AA San Antonio in 2007 and a slugged at a .556 clip at Portland this past season. The switch-hitter works the count well (10.7 BB% with Portland), though fairly low contact rates are at least somewhat troubling (he whiffed 25.1% of the time in AAA, 26.3% in AA in ’07). Headley saw considerable playing time for the Padres last summer, batting a respectable .269/.337/.420 in 368 PA (he did K 31.4% of the time, however).

Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix took a look at Headley’s track record and poked a few holes in it, noting Headley’s relatively advanced age, contact issues and the power-sapping environs of Petco Park. The odds of Headley becoming a star probably aren’t great, but he’s pretty much assured of everyday playing time in 2009 and has enough secondary skills to hold his own.

3. Brandon Wood, Angels: .405 wOBA (.296/.375/.595)
Age: 23 (24 in March)
Position: SS/3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Salt Lake): R (1.06), H (1.04), 2B (0.96), HR (1.07)
PAL: .284/.364/.577
MLE: .235/.299/.446

It feels as though Wood has been adorning prospects list forever, doesn’t it? The soon-to-be 24 year-old has a long history of hitting for prodigious power, though a few Angles affiliates (High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Salt Lake in particular) reside in very favorable offensive leagues. The 6-3, 185 pounder appears stuck in a holding pattern right now: he has little left to prove at AAA, but just where he resides on the diamond long-term remains to be seen.

The Angles will likely continue to struggle in the run-scoring department, particularly in a post-Teixeira world (Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs LAA for 778 runs scored in 2009, 9th in the AL), so Wood’s pop could come in handy. Incumbent shortstop Erick Aybar has been rather feeble in the batter’s box to this point (career .286 wOBA). However, his glove work is well-regarded, whereas Wood is considered merely functional at the position. In the long haul, the most probable scenario entails Wood being installed at the hot corner, with Chone Figgins returning to a super-utility role.

Like Headley, Wood’s biggest drawback is his frequent propensity to swing and miss. Over the past two years in AAA, the 2003 first-rounder has punched out about 27% of the time. In 157 PA for the Halos last year, Wood whiffed 28.7% with a 2.6 BB%. Strikeouts certainly don’t preclude a player from being highly productive, but such a high rate does raise questions about Wood’s ability to handle breaking stuff at the highest level. Overall, Wood is a tough player to gauge: he could be a highly valuable commodity if he sticks at short and does enough in the walks and power department to offset a low batting average, an average to above-average player at third or a flameout who doesn’t adjust to big-league pitching.

4. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: .329 wOBA (.283/.344/.416)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: CF/LF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Sacramento): R (0.94), H (0.96), 2B (0.97), HR (0.89)
PAL: .297/.356/.430
MLE: .250/.298/.341

The twice-traded Gonzalez proved that he could cover the gaps in Oakland last season (17.5 UZR/150), and the Venezuelan lefty has shown solid power during the course of his minor league career (.286/.340/.473). CarGo has youth and tools on his side, but he has quite a bit of work to do in terms of honing his control of the strike zone. In 316 PA with Oakland, Gonzalez walked just 4.1% of the time and chased 32.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He was never particularly patient in the minors, either, with a career 7.8 BB%. I took a look at Gonzalez earlier this offseason following his trade to Colorado and came to the following conclusion:

“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”

5. Andy LaRoche, Pirates: .402 wOBA (.293/.452/.439)
Age: 25 (24 during ’08 season)
Position: 3B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Las Vegas): R (1.09), H (1.06), 2B (1.08), HR (1.08)
PAL: .276/.440/.423
MLE: .218/.349/.323

LaRoche is something of a forgotten man on the prospect landscape, as an execrable beginning to his major league career (.255 wOBA in 367 PA) has left a sour taste in the mouths of many. However, the career .294/.380/.517 minor league hitter has an interesting blend of skills and could prove to be a solid offensive cog for Pittsburgh. Adam’s brother combines gap power with a highly discerning eye (career 13.5 BB% in the minors) and a high-contact approach (16.3 K%). Yes, Andy’s 2008 big league numbers are stomach-churning, but his BABIP was an incredibly low .177. I examined LaRoche earlier this offseason, stressing that a small sample of at-bats should not be grounds for writing off a player with a long, sustained record of success:

“While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.”

Justin Morneau checks in with an ADP of 20 in the latest rankings from Mock Draft Central. That makes him a mid-to-late second-round pick. However, it also ranks him as the sixth-best first base option for fantasy players. Should a fantasy owner really spend a second-round pick on the sixth-best option at a non-OF, non-P position?

Morneau has a first and a second-place finish in the MVP race in two of the past three years, thanks in large part to big RBI numbers. Those RBI numbers are obviously quite valuable in fantasy, but they have the disadvantage of being relatively unreliable. After having 130 RBIs in 2006, Morneau “slumped” to 111 in 2007.

It is always nice if big RBI men can buttress their fantasy case with consistent production in other categories. One of the big arguments for Ryan Howard is you know he is going to give you HR production. But with Morneau, we see inconsistent production in average and declining HR rates.

In 2006, Morneau had a FB% of 40.6 percent and his HR/FB rate was 16.4 percent. Last year those numbers were 37.6 and 11.2, respectively. After hitting six home runs in April, Morneau hit just 17 in the following five months.

Late in September, Morneau disclosed that he had been playing with a sore knee. It certainly could help explain the declining power production but it was not serious enough for him to miss a single game last year.

However, if you want something to feel optimistic about, Morneau underwent laser eye surgery in November. Perhaps a healthy knee from an off-season of rest and improved vision will allow Morneau to get back to his 34-HR, .321-AVG ways of 2006. Otherwise, you might want to hold off on drafting a bottom-second-tier first baseman with your second-round pick.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, to be kind, have not received a desirable return on investment from early-round draft picks in recent years. Despite consistently selecting high in June, the Bucs have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, particularly in 2002 (Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton with the 1st overall pick) and 2007 (A-Ball bust Daniel Moskos over prospect demigod Matt Wieters).

The Dave Littlefield-run front office that authored those blunders has thankfully been purged. New GM Neal Huntington has made strides to improve the club’s young talent base over the past year by adding players such as Pedro Alvarez, Quinton Miller and Robbie Grossman in the draft, as well as acquiring youngsters such as Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris and Jose Tabata in trades (for more on Pittsburgh’s base of young talent, see Marc Hulet’s post here).

While Littlefield’s draft decisions will live in infamy, his 2003 selection of left-hander Paul Maholm has paid dividends for the organization. The 8th overall pick out of Mississippi State that year, Maholm was not viewed as a quintessential fire-breathing starter, but his polished four-pitch mix (sinker, curve, slider, change) figured to expedite his ascent to Pittsburgh.

The former Bulldog did indeed move quickly, as he rose from the New York Penn League in ’03 all the way to the majors by the summer of 2005. His peripherals along the way fell in line with his solid, not spectacular scouting reports, as he struck out 7.23 batters per nine innings while issuing 3.15 BB/9 and burning plenty of worms (59.5 GB%). In his first big league action in the summer of ’05, Maholm posted a 2.18 ERA in 41.1 innings pitched. That figure, derived from a small amount of work, obviously involved some good fortune (his FIP was 3.84).

Since that point, the 26 year-old has shown steady, gradual improvement:

2006: 5.98 K/9, 4.14 BB/9, 1.44 K/BB, 4.81 FIP
2007: 5.32 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 2.14 K/BB, 4.60 FIP
2008: 6.06 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 2.21 K/BB, 4.15 FIP

For three years running, Maholm has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio and his FIP, while keeping his infielders busy with a GB% hovering around 53 percent. The 6-2, 220 pounder also has a three-year upward trend in Outside Swing%: 19.5% in ’06, 20.1% in ’07 and 25.7% in ’08. To boot, Maholm posted the best Contact% of his career this past season (81.5%, down from 85.2% the previous year) and continued to pound the strike zone with a 62 percent First-Pitch Strike% that ranked in the top 25 among all starters.

Pittsburgh’s nominal ace (recently inked to a three-year, arbitration-ending deal with an option year) might not possess the sort of stuff that allows one to dream of future stardom, but Paul Maholm’s average K rate, coupled with pretty solid control and groundball tendencies, make him a good bet to keep his FIP in the low four’s going forward. That might not get you all excited, but Maholm’s brand of above-average, high-probability pitching would be a fine way of rounding out a good fantasy rotation.

The past eight seasons, Mark Buehrle has been guaranteed to pitch 200 innings and win in double digits. That marks him as one of the most durable pitchers around. But from a fantasy standpoint, Buehrle is not on anyone’s list of must-have hurlers.

While Buehrle has been extremely durable, he has also managed to be aggravatingly inconsistent in fantasy categories. Should owners expect 10 wins or 19? Should they count on 98 strikeouts or 165? Will his ERA be closer to 3.12 or 4.99? Will the WHIP be 1.07 or 1.45? Usually these drastic swings only occur in pitchers who had injury problems or suffered one off year or enjoyed a career season. Buehrle had career highs and lows in six different seasons over the past eight campaigns.

By contrast, Barry Zito had three of his career highs in 2002 and all four of his career lows in 2008.

Perhaps due to these wild fluctuations, the projection systems all see Buehrle failing to match his 2008 season, which was his best since 2005. They all come up with him having fewer wins and strikeouts and a higher ERA. Only his WHIP do they see as being stable, and as he finished 50th in that category among qualified pitchers last year, it is not anything really to get excited about.

Mock drafters also are confused with what to make of Buehrle. A mock I participated in today he went undrafted. I have also seen him go as high as the 17th round.

Buehrle makes a fine fifth or sixth starter for a mixed league staff. He is a good late pick because he does have upside. It is certainly possible that he turns in a season like he did in 2002 or 2005 or 2008 and becomes a valuable member of a championship pitching staff. Just don’t gamble on him being your fourth starter.

Everyone talks about how fortunate that Francisco Rodriguez was to set the all-time single-season saves mark in the last year of his contract. It certainly was ideal, but Rodriguez at 26-years old and a reliable closer for years, was going to get a nice contract, regardless. Instead, the person people should point to for coming up big prior to free agency is Jorge Posada.

In 2007, at the age of 35, Posada put up a .338-20-90-91-2 line, which earned him a four-year, $52.4 million contract. The good news is that on the Yankees, that is just another contract. The bad news is that there is no way he is going to earn that salary, either in 2009 or the final two years of the deal.

In baseball history, there have been only 18 seasons in which a player 37 or older has amassed 400 or more plate appearances in a season in which they appeared at 50 percent or more of their games as a catcher. And six of those belong to Carlton Fisk.

In only one of those seasons did the player hit over .300, and that was during World War II, when Ernie Lombardi hit .307 against competition that was not really major league caliber. Only three times did a player hit 20 or more home runs under these conditions, two of those by Fisk in seasons in which he batted .238 and .256, respectively.

Catching is hard. And Posada is climbing the ranks of most games caught in a career. He has played 1,390 games at catcher, which ranks in the top 40 in MLB history. Last year, Posada broke down. He had season-ending shoulder surgery and before he shut it down for the season, Posada was a liability behind the plate.

There is no guarantee that he can bounce back in 2009. And even if he can be a productive hitter, can he play well enough defensively to stay at catcher? And if not, does Posada still have enough bat for the Yankees to carry at DH?

All of these things combine to push Posada out of the top 10 in catchers for 2009. Yes, the possibility exists that he might be one of the top three at the position if he rebounds completely. But do you really like those odds? Because of his previous level of performance, Posada has more upside than only a handful of catchers. But he is much more likely to repeat his 2008 numbers, which means fantasy players should look elsewhere.

For a southpaw with plus velocity who won’t turn 28 until April, Rockies hurler Jorge de la Rosa has experienced quite the nomadic career. Originally signed out of Mexico by the Arizona Diamondbacks all the way back in 1998, de la Rosa has since passed through Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado, and has been involved in four trades. Within one week in the fall of 2003, de la Rosa was shipped from Boston back to Arizona in the Curt Schilling trade, only to be sent packing to the Brewers in the 9-player Richie Sexson swap. Jorge was part of a July 2006 deal that sent him to Kansas City for Tony Graffanino, and was bartered yet again in April of ’08, this time heading to the inhospitable environs of Coors Field.

The main culprit for the 6-1, 210 pounder’s game of roster hot-potato has been his control. Despite pumping gas in the low 90’s and complementing the heat with three other offerings, de la Rosa has walked nearly five batters per nine innings (4.92 BB/9) in the big leagues, a continuation of his work in the minors (3.64 BB/9). de la Rosa’s strike zone issues have left him fighting to stay in one place for more than a season or two, as he has compiled a career 4.86 FIP.

2008, however, brought with it legitimate progress. de la Rosa made 23 starts and tossed 130 innings both in ’07 with the Royals and ’08 with the Rockies, and the results this past season were far more promising. The Monterrey native posted mild peripherals with Kansas City, with 5.68 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 5.27 FIP. In 2008, de la Rosa upped his strikeout rate considerably, punching out 8.86 batters per nine innings. His control still came and went (4.29 BB/9), but the end result was a sturdy-looking 4.06 FIP.

de la Rosa added a tick to his fastball this past year, throwing his heat at an average of 92.8 MPH (91.4 MPH in ’07). In addition, he started throwing his slider a good deal more, using the 84 MPH breaker 16.1% of the time in ’08 after snapping off a slide-piece just 6.4% in 2007. Armed with a solid fastball, a sharp slider, a slow 73 MPH curve (9.3%) and an 83.5 MPH changeup (18%), Jorge improved his Outside-Swing and Contact rates considerably.

After garnering an O-Swing% of just 20.3% with the Royals in 2007, de la Rosa got batters to fish out of the strike zone 25.6% with Colorado in ’08, slightly above the major league average. To boot, his Contact% fell from 82.1% in ’07 down to 76.4% in ’08. That was the 10th-lowest contact rate among pitchers tossing at least 130 frames, sandwiched between A.J. Burnett and Jake Peavy.

Burned by the home run in the past, de la Rosa modestly upped his groundball percentage from 40.6% to 45.7% this past season. The extra worm-burners, coupled with the K’s, were enough to qualify de la Rosa for Rich Lederer’s list of starters posting the best combination of groundball and strikeout rates over at The Baseball Analysts. Not surprisingly, the group of starters keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats were the most successful of the four types of pitchers studied (high K and GB rates, high K and low GB rates, low K and high GB rates and low K and low GB rates). Said Lederer:

“I am intrigued by de la Rosa, who was 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA and compelling peripheral stats in August and September, a period covering 11 games and nine starts (including five at Coors Field) and 58.2 innings.”

With the health status of Jeff Francis (shoulder) very much in doubt, de la Rosa figures to capture one of Colorado’s rotation spots. Keep a close eye on Jorge this spring- he could finally make good on the promise he has only hinted at to this point in his career.

With the uncertainty surrounding Chase Utley, some analysts have Brandon Phillips as the top second baseman in the National League and along with Ian Kinsler one of the top at the position in all of baseball. Phillips at his peak offers power, average and speed and it is no wonder why many people are bullish on him as we head to the start of Spring Training.

But the one thing to keep in mind is that Phillips has been a starter for three seasons and his 2007 season, where he posted a .288-30-94-107-32 line, is the outlier. If he can duplicate that season, then yes he is one of the top second basemen in fantasy. But what if he hits like he did in either 2006 or 2008? Here is his average line from those two seasons:

.268-19-77-73-24

Now, that is a real nice line for a second baseman. It is just beneath what you should expect from, say Dustin Pedroia or Brian Roberts, with the latter trailing Phillips’ ADP of 29 according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central.

Phillips was hurt last year by a .281 BABIP, which was about 25 points below what he posted his previous two seasons. He has seen his LD% drop from 19.2 percent in 2006 to 16.4 percent last year. Both his FB% and HR/FB rates fell by a tick, too.

In 2006, he was successful on 25 of 27 steal attempts. His percentage fell off somewhat in 2007, but he compensated by attempting 40 steals. Last year, Phillips had 23 steals but was thrown out 10 times. That is not a good trend.

The four projection systems show him basically repeating his 2008 season this year. That is a fine line for a second baseman and nothing to dismiss. Just remember that before you make him one of the top players picked at the position. If he reproduces his 2008 numbers, Phillips is a third-tier second baseman. That makes his peers Alexei Ramirez and Dan Uggla, not Kinsler and Utley.

Ryan Braun is one of the first outfielders to go in nearly every mock draft so far this year. With two solid seasons of production under his belt, Braun has an ADP of nine according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central and he is the second-rated outfielder there behind Grady Sizemore.

One of the nice things about Braun is that he will give you numbers in all five categories. He is a threat to win the home run title, but he can also steal bases and post a nice average, too. Last year, Braun finished tied for fourth in the majors with 37 home runs. The three players who hit more homers – Carlos Delgado, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard – combined for three steals while Braun had 14.

The big question around Braun is how high you think his average will be. In his rookie season, he batted .324 but his average dropped to .285 last year. Now that is still a fine mark – Delgado’s .271 was the highest mark of the three that hit more homers – but he is a borderline first-round pick if his average remains what it was in 2008.

The Bill James projection sees Braun rebounding for a .310 average this season, which makes him an easy first-round selection. The other three projection systems all show Braun improving on last year’s mark, which certainly is a nice sign.

When Braun hit .324 in 2007, he did it in part due to a .367 BABIP. Last year his mark in that category fell to .308, which led to the 39-point drop in average. All four projection systems show Braun with a BABIP this year in the .320s, which would probably mean some combination of more line drives and fewer infield pop-ups.

Starting with the sixth pick in the draft, it is reasonable to start considering Braun for your pick. But he is just one of about a dozen players you have to review. If you think he should be the sixth player taken, you are banking on the 25-point increase in average that the James projection predicts. That is not out of the question, but it should also be looked at as the high end of his expected performance for 2009.

The general pool of power at third base took a hit recently for Fantasy Leagues when it was announced St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus could miss the first couple of months of the 2009 season due to shoulder surgery. The Cardinals’ options to replace Glaus for the first few months of the season include prospects David Freese and Brian Barden.

Freese was originally obtained by the Cardinals from the Padres in December 2007 for Jim Edmonds. At the time, Freese had just finished up a full season in High-A ball at the age of 24. He hit .302/.400/.489 with an ISO of .187. The third baseman was old for the league and was playing in a very good hitter’s park.

Once in the Cardinals organization, Freese skipped Double-A and began the year in Triple-A, which was certainly a large jump. The 25-year-old had a modest first three months in the league and held his own. The final two months tell the story, though. Freese hit .378/.419/.694 in July and .337/.389/.596 in August. His final line of the season was .306/.361/.550 with an ISO of .244 in 464 at-bats. On the downside, Freese’s rates regressed – but not too badly. His walk rate dropped from 12.2 BB% to 7.8 BB% and his strikeout rate went from 19.7 K% to 23.9 K%.

Barden would seemingly have a better shot at securing the temporary third-base gig because he actually has some big league experience. However, he has a lower ceiling overall and simply has not preformed well in limited MLB experience, with a line of .182/. 217/.205 in 44 at-bats. He does, though, have a career minor league line of .294/.351/.445 in seven seasons. The 27-year-old is better suited to a utility role and emergency call-up for short periods.

Whomever replaces Glaus for April and possibly May, will have smaller than expected shoes to fill – when looking at the incumbent’s output from last season. Glaus hit just three home runs in the first two months with 18 runs scored, 33 RBI and a batting average around .260.

Barden is certainly not a Fantasy option, and Freese probably is not either unless you’re playing in a deep singles league and he is guaranteed the starting role (which he’s not at this point). Glaus is a player you’ll want to monitor and grab once he’s healthy – unless you already have a better option at third.

Peter Bendix took a look at Matt Wieters back in November and came away concluding that Wieters could be Joe Mauer with more power. Those are some pretty lofty expectations. David Golebiewski briefly discussed his AA exploits last month. Now that pretty much all of the projection systems have come out, I think it is a pretty good time to revisit the prospect that has more words written about him than any in recent memory.

Mock Draft Central has the three top catchers (Brian McCann, Russell Martin, and Mauer) checking in between picks 45-50 in their recent drafts. Giovanni Soto is next at about the 65th pick. Matt Wieters is not in the top 75. What can we expect from Wieters? Well, the projections have quite a range. CHONE has him pegged for .274/.352/.439/.791 with 15 HRs in 115 games. They project him to have the 10th best OPS and tied for the 5th best HR total. This is the low-end projections. On the opposite end of the spectrum is the PECOTA projection. He rates as the best catcher in baseball according to PECOTA. His line is .311/.395/.544/.939 with 31 HR and 100+ RBIs and runs. Bill James’ and Oliver lie in between the two extremes. At worst it seems he will be a top 5 offensive catcher next year.

The bigger concern with Wieters is playing time. When will he see the bigs? In front of Wieters is the career backup/part-time option of Greg Zaun. I have a hard time believing that Zaun will hold Wieters off the position, and there is little doubt in my mind that Wieters will perform well enough to warrant a call. I imagine the only thing really holding Wieters back is money. Figuring that the Orioles do not stand a chance to contend this year in the stacked AL East, the O’s may be wise to hold him back to delay his arbitration clock. If attendance starts to wane, then the O’s may be wise to bring up the young stud to put butts in the seat. Seemingly, there is no way they hold him in the minors past June.

When he comes up, he will immediately be at worst one of the better offensive catchers. Most people seem to think, though, that he will be a force. Come summer you will be very, very glad you overdrafted for Wieters. In keeper leagues, he may be one of the best picks made in your draft, similar to Longoria last year. I know I plan on reaching for Wieters in most drafts and then depend on one of the catchers off the trash heap to man the position for a month or two.